Korea's birthrate could have been 28% higher without private education competition

A study found that Korea’s competition over private education is depressing birthrates by raising the cost of raising children. Researchers estimated that without status competition, the average number of children per woman would have been about 0.53 higher, or roughly 28 percent more for women born between 1970 and 1975. The findings were presented Wednesday at a conference on population aging hosted by the Bank of Korea, CEPR and the OECD. The study also found the burden is heavier for lower-income households and that high-income spending influences other families.

Researchers estimated that women born between 1970 and 1975 would have had an average of 2.45 children without status competition, compared with 1.92 in their model.

Households in Korea’s lowest income quintile spent an average of 8.4 percent of their income on private education, compared with 5.1 percent in the highest income quintile.

If private education spending by households in the top 15 percent of the income distribution fell by 10 percent, the share of income spent on private education by households in the bottom 50 percent would fall by 0.4 to 0.9 percentage points.

Published Sep 3, 2026 4:57 pm KST

Updated Sep 3, 2026 5:00 pm KST

Study shows status competition has major impact on fertility decisions

Bank of Korea (BOK) Gov. Shin Hyun-song delivers an opening address via video during a joint conference hosted by the BOK, the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development under the theme "The Economics of Population Aging and Longevity: From Challenge to Opportunity" at the Bank of Korea in central Seoul, Sept. 2. Courtesy of the Bank of Korea

A study has confirmed that Korea's fierce competition over private education is one of the factors contributing to the country's low birthrate.

The study found that parents tend to increase spending on private education as they compare their children's academic achievements with those of other families. The resulting financial burden, in turn, discourages families from having additional children.

Researchers estimated that without the effects of such competition, the average number of children per woman would have been about 0.53 higher than the actual figure.

The findings were presented Wednesday at a conference on population aging jointly hosted by the Bank of Korea, the Centre for Economic Policy Research and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The research team, which included Kim Sung-eun, a professor of economics at Sejong University; Michele Tertilt, a professor at the University of Mannheim in Germany; and Mincheol Yeom, a professor at Virginia Commonwealth University in the United States, examined the relationship between private education competition and fertility.

The researchers defined the phenomenon as "status competition," in which parents compare and evaluate their children's educational achievements against those of other children and increase their investment in education to keep up.

In Korea, this often takes the form of additional spending on private academies, known as "hagwon," as parents worry that their children may fall behind their peers.

The researchers also analyzed the phenomenon using an economic model.

A cross-country comparison showed that countries with more intense competition over education tended to have lower fertility rates and faster declines in fertility. Korea, Singapore and Chile were cited as representative examples.

Private education burden heavier for low-income families

The burden created by competition over private education was particularly significant for lower-income households in Korea.

Households in the lowest income quintile spent an average of 8.4 percent of their income on private education, compared with 5.1 percent among households in the highest income quintile.

The study also identified a spillover effect, in which private education spending by high-income households influences spending decisions among other groups.

If private education spending by households in the top 15 percent of the income distribution were to decline by 10 percent, the share of income that households in the bottom 50 percent spent on private education would fall by 0.4 to 0.9 percentage points.

The researchers explained that when high-income households increase their investment in education, other families also feel pressure to spend more because they fear their children will fall behind.

Private academies in Daechi-dong, southern Seoul, Sept. 3 / Yonhap

Most significantly, the study found that status competition has a substantial effect on decisions about whether to have children.

The researchers estimated that without status competition, women born between 1970 and 1975 would have had an average of 2.45 children, compared with 1.92 in their model.

That would represent an increase of about 28 percent.

The researchers suggested that policymakers should consider measures to reduce competition over private education alongside simply expanding childbirth incentives.

In particular, they found that imposing taxes on private education spending by high-income households, whose spending serves as a benchmark for other families, and using the revenue to fund childbirth incentives could increase both fertility and social welfare without placing an additional burden on public finances.

Another study presented at the conference examined the impact of childbirth on women's earnings.

According to Hwang Ji-soo, a professor at Seoul National University, women's earnings were 43 percent lower five years after childbirth than those of women without children. The decline began at the time of pregnancy rather than after childbirth.

In contrast, the study found little change in men's earnings following the birth of a child.

Visitors browse pregnancy, childbirth and child care products at the Magok International Pregnancy, Childbirth and Early Childhood Education Expo held at COEX Magok in western Seoul, Aug. 6. Yonhap

This article from the Hankook Ilbo, the sister publication of The Korea Times, is translated by a generative AI system and edited by The Korea Times.

一项研究发现，韩国私立教育领域的竞争推高了养育子女的成本，从而抑制了生育率。研究人员估计，如果没有这种竞争，每位女性的平均子女数将增加约0.53个，对于1970年至1975年出生的女性而言，增幅约为28%。该研究结果于周三在由韩国银行、经济政策研究中心（CEPR）和经合组织（OECD）联合举办的人口老龄化会议上发布。研究还发现，低收入家庭的负担更为沉重，高收入家庭的支出也会影响其他家庭。

研究人员估计，1970 年至 1975 年间出生的女性如果没有地位竞争，平均会生育 2.45 个孩子，而他们的模型显示这一数字为 1.92。

韩国收入最低的五分之一家庭平均将收入的 8.4% 用于私立教育，而收入最高的五分之一家庭的这一比例为 5.1%。

如果收入分配中前 15% 的家庭在私立教育上的支出下降 10%，那么收入分配中后 50% 的家庭在私立教育上的支出占收入的比例将下降 0.4 至 0.9 个百分点。

发布于2026年9月3日下午4:57（韩国标准时间）

更新于2026年9月3日下午5:00（韩国标准时间）

研究表明，地位竞争对生育决策有重大影响。

9月2日，韩国央行行长申铉松在首尔市中心韩国央行总部通过视频发表开幕致辞。此次会议由韩国央行、经济政策研究中心和经济合作与发展组织联合主办，主题为“人口老龄化与长寿的经济学：从挑战到机遇”。图片由韩国央行提供。

一项研究证实，韩国私立教育领域激烈的竞争是导致该国低出生率的因素之一。

研究发现，当家长将自己孩子的学业成绩与其他家庭的孩子进行比较时，他们往往会增加在私立教育上的支出。由此产生的经济负担反过来又会抑制家庭生育更多子女的意愿。

研究人员估计，如果没有这种竞争的影响，每位女性的平均子女数将比实际数字高出约 0.53 个。

这些研究结果于周三在由韩国银行、经济政策研究中心和经济合作与发展组织联合主办的人口老龄化会议上公布。

该研究团队包括世宗大学经济学教授金成恩、德国曼海姆大学教授米歇尔·特蒂尔特和美国弗吉尼亚联邦大学教授廉敏哲，他们研究了私立教育竞争与生育率之间的关系。

研究人员将这种现象定义为“地位竞争”，即父母将自己孩子的教育成就与其他孩子的教育成就进行比较和评估，并增加对孩子的教育投入以跟上步伐。

在韩国，这通常表现为额外花钱送孩子去私立补习班（称为“hagwon”），因为家长担心自己的孩子可能会落后于同龄人。

研究人员还运用经济模型分析了这一现象。

跨国比较显示，教育竞争越激烈的国家，生育率往往越低，且生育率下降速度也越快。韩国、新加坡和智利被列为典型例子。

私立教育对低收入家庭来说负担更重

私立教育竞争给韩国低收入家庭带来的负担尤为沉重。

收入最低的五分之一家庭平均将收入的 8.4% 用于私立教育，而收入最高的五分之一家庭的这一比例为 5.1%。

该研究还发现了一种溢出效应，即高收入家庭的私人教育支出会影响其他群体的支出决策。

如果收入分配中前 15% 的家庭在私立教育上的支出下降 10%，那么收入分配中后 50% 的家庭在私立教育上的支出占收入的比例将下降 0.4 至 0.9 个百分点。

研究人员解释说，当高收入家庭增加对教育的投入时，其他家庭也会感到压力，不得不增加支出，因为他们担心自己的孩子会落后。

首尔南部大峙洞私立教育学院，9月3日/韩联社

最重要的是，该研究发现地位竞争对是否生育子女的决定有显著影响。

研究人员估计，如果没有地位竞争，1970 年至 1975 年出生的女性平均会生育 2.45 个孩子，而他们的模型中这一数字为 1.92。

这将代表增长约28%。

研究人员建议，政策制定者除了扩大生育激励措施外，还应考虑采取措施减少私立教育领域的竞争。

他们特别发现，对高收入家庭的私立教育支出征税（这些支出可作为其他家庭的基准），并将税收收入用于资助生育激励措施，可以在不给公共财政增加额外负担的情况下提高生育率和社会福利。

会议上发表的另一项研究探讨了生育对女性收入的影响。

首尔大学教授黄智秀表示，女性产后五年的收入比没有孩子的女性低43%。这种收入下降从怀孕时就开始了，而不是在产后。

相比之下，该研究发现，男性在孩子出生后收入几乎没有变化。

8月6日，参观者在首尔西部COEX麻谷会展中心举行的麻谷国际孕产妇及幼儿教育博览会上浏览孕期、分娩及育儿产品。（韩联社）

本文来自《韩国日报》（《韩国时报》的姊妹报），由人工智能生成系统翻译，并由《韩国时报》编辑。