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The 9 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2026

With seven weeks until Election Day, control of the US Senate is up for grabs as Democrats go on offense in red territory and Republicans look to make headway in a small number of blue-held seats.

CNNArlette Saenz, David Wright查看原文 ↗
2026年最有可能易手的9个参议院席位

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With seven weeks until Election Day, control of the US Senate is up for grabs as Democrats go on offense in red territory and Republicans look to make headway in a small number of blue-held seats.

Democrats have long believed that the economic and political environment and historical headwinds against the president’s party have put a blue Senate majority — and a consequential check on the Trump administration — within sight. But entering the final campaign stretch, recent polling suggests they may need to play more defense than expected as a key matchup in New Hampshire raises new concerns.

Still, the party remains optimistic on the national level, targeting deeper into red territory as President Donald Trump remains broadly unpopular with an approval rating of 35%, according to CNN’s Poll of Polls, creating a potential drag on GOP contenders.

Economic conditions, including high gas prices, seem to be baked in at this point as Trump has predicted th Iran war won’t end until after the midterms. His ramped-up trade war with Canada also has the potential to disrupt GOP campaigns in Michigan and Maine, two states that could determine control of the Senate next year.

Reuters/Bloomberg/Getty Images/AP

Maine and Michigan Senate races are neck and neck, CNN polls find

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released this month found 46% of Democrats were “very enthusiastic” about voting in November compared with 31% of Republicans. The GOP is looking to energize the base, which historically turns out at lower rates when Trump isn’t on the ballot, with ramped-up spending and increased involvement from the president in the general election.

The tactic was on full display in last week’s unusual GOP midterm convention , billed by organizers as a “Trump-a-palooza,” where the president vowed to dole out $5,000 checks to US adults if Republicans hold onto Congress. “Pretend I’m on the ballot,” he said, as Vice President JD Vance made an appeal to undecided voters to not “throw the baby out with the bathwater” over dissatisfaction with the Iran war.

In another sign of the times, Trump’s political networks, including MAGA Inc. and the newly formed No Going Back PAC, are finally starting to activate, reserving millions in advertisements for the coming months after the president promised to spend up to $500 million on behalf of GOP candidates.

For now, nine states will likely determine control of the Senate. The Democratic math remains tough: They need to flip four of the six GOP seats on this list plus hold onto three of their own. Some states have shifted positions since last month’s ranking , with movement in New Hampshire and Iowa.

Our ranking of the seats most likely to flip in November is based on CNN reporting, including conversations with strategists involved in Senate races, as well as our analysis of candidate fundraising, polling and the partisan environment in the states. The rankings are a snapshot of where the contests stand at this point and will shift over the next two months as the fall campaign intensifies.

Allison Joyce/Bloomberg/Getty Images

With mail voting already underway, North Carolina is still the most likely Senate seat to flip heading into the fall fight as Democrat Roy Cooper, a well-known former governor, maintains a strong position against Trump loyalist Michael Whatley.

A mid-August poll from High Point University found no clear leader in the contest between Cooper and Whatley, while other polling in the summer months showed the Democrat more solidly ahead. All of the recent high-quality polling in the race, though, has found Cooper holding at least 50% support, while none has found Whatley above 45%.

In a recent interview with CNN , Cooper warned Democrats against “complacency,” and strategists in both parties believe this race will further tighten in the coming months. But Cooper still appears to have the upper hand.

The former governor, who was elected twice while Trump was also on the ballot, has made affordability issues the centerpiece of his campaign with his “Make Stuff Cost Less” messaging and tour. “I know costs are way up, and it’s a senator’s job to do something about it,” Cooper said in one recent ad that also features past comments from Whatley downplaying inflation.

Meanwhile, the GOP nominee is up with ads about his commitment to tax cuts and affordability, and Republicans have leaned into spots attacking Cooper on crime.

Cooper has held a fundraising advantage over Whatley, a former chair of the Republican National Committee, throughout the contest. After the primary on March 3 through the end of August, Cooper outspent Whatley on a campaign-to-campaign basis by nearly 3-to-1, $9 million to $3.2 million, enabled by Cooper’s strong fundraising.

But Republicans outside groups spent about $20 million compared with about $11.2 million from Cooper allies during that stretch, according to AdImpact data. The GOP ramped up spending in August amid growing anxiety over Republicans’ prospects of holding the critical seat.

And from the start of September through Election Day, Republicans outpace Democrats in total ad reservations by about $63 million to $53.7 million. The Trump-linked No Going Back PAC accounts for over $5 million in fall advertisements.

Trump will campaign with Whatley on Wednesday in hopes of turning out GOP voters in a state he won three times.

Despite Democrats’ scramble to replace controversy-laden nominee Graham Platner earlier this summer, the Senate contest in Maine remains the second state most likely to flip. The race appears to be driven more by voters’ broadly negative views of incumbent GOP Sen. Susan Collins and Trump than by their impressions of her new rival, Troy Jackson.

A recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS showed the race in true toss-up territory with no clear leader. The survey found Jackson at 48% among likely voters and Collins at 45% —figures within the poll’s margin of error.

In further warning signs for Collins, 71% of Jackson supporters said they see their vote as against the GOP senator, while a quarter of Collins’ backers said their vote was against Jackson. Forty-six percent of likely voters said they viewed their vote as opposing Trump, and a majority — 55% — said they want to see Democrats have control of the Senate next year.

The president’s intensifying trade war with Canada, Maine’s largest trading partner, has also emerged as a fresh flashpoint. The tariffs could prove disruptive to industries in the state on top of the economic turbulence already facing voters.

While Collins has called the latest tariffs a “mistake” for Maine and pointed out her conversations with administration officials to warn of the consequences, Democrats appear to have some success in their efforts to tie her to Trump . A Fox News survey last month showed more than half of the state’s registered voters — 55% — believe her voting record aligns with the president too often, despite Collins’ efforts to maintain some independence from him on the trail.

But in the final campaign sprint, Republicans are hoping to change the narrative, outspending Democrats on advertising in Maine by about $25 million to $16.9 million in August, according to AdImpact data, with $51 million in ads booked from the start of September through Election Day. Democrats have reserved around $35 million over the same stretch.

Heading into November, female voters are a key constituency to watch. In 2020, women made up 59% of the vote and narrowly favored Collins over her Democratic opponent, exit polls showed. The recent CNN poll found 54% of female likely voters favored Jackson, while 39% sided with Collins, suggesting the GOP senator has more work to do with a demographic that could decide the election.

Jeff Kowalsky/AFP/Getty Images

Michigan remains the third most likely state to switch parties, with the two candidates running neck and neck and Republicans eyeing it as their top pickup opportunity.

A CNN poll recently conducted by SSRS showed no clear leader in the race with Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 47% among likely voters and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers at 44%, another margin that lands within the survey’s margin of error.

Candidate positions are driving voter decisions, with 47% of likely voters saying it’s the most important factor they’re weighing. Fifty percent say El-Sayed’s positions are too liberal, compared with 42% who say that Rogers is too conservative.

The GOP has strived to capitalize on that perception of El-Sayed nationally, pointing to the progressive candidate to argue Democrats have become too extreme and radical. The former public health official was the most referenced Democratic politician at the GOP midterm convention last week, including in speeches from Rogers and Vance.

Rogers and his allies have run ads injecting 9/11 politics in the debate, trying to tie the El-Sayed to controversial comments made by leftist streamer Hasan Piker, from whom El-Sayed has sought to distance himself , with the general election underway. El-Sayed and his ties to Piker were fixtures of Republican attacks at the GOP midterm convention ahead of the 25th anniversary of the terror attacks.

Sarah Rice/Bloomberg/Getty Images

El-Sayed apologizes to Jewish Democrats as he seeks to bridge party divides

Republicans are also hoping to take advantage of Democratic divisions left over from the primary, courting Jewish voters uneasy with his positions and past comments on Israel even as El-Sayed works to smooth over tensions with the community.

But Rogers still faces a challenge in flipping the seat as he contends with voters’ negative views of the economy and Trump’s job performance.

The economy and cost of living are a top concern this year, and Trump’s trade war with Canada is resonating with Michiganders negatively, with 64% of likely voters saying the increased tariffs are a bad idea.

An effective communicator who is well-versed in social media, El-Sayed has hammered Trump and Rogers over the tariffs, blaming the policy for driving up costs in the state. Rogers has tried to strike a careful tone, saying there are both positives and negatives to the tariffs without overtly criticizing the president’s policy.

Rogers, who narrowly lost a 2024 Senate bid to Democrat Elissa Slotkin while Trump carried the state, will need low-propensity Trump voters to turn out in November. But independent voters also could be key, with signs they are favoring El-Sayed at this point in the race. In the CNN poll, El-Sayed has a 16-point edge over Rogers among independents.

In the month since Michigan’s contentious Democratic Senate primary, ad money has poured into the premier battleground race, totaling more than $25 million split about evenly.

For the final stretch of the campaign, Republicans have roughly double the Democratic ad reservations. According to AdImpact data, the GOP has booked over $55 million, while Democrats have slotted over $26 million from the start of September until Election Day. No Going Back PAC, the Trump-linked super PAC, accounts for nearly $18 million of those ad buys — the most the group has dedicated to any Senate race so far.

The intense focus on the race reflects the consequential role it could play for Democrats — losing a seat here would require the party to go deeper into GOP territory to secure a Senate majority — and the possible test case it could provide for 2028 with a progressive candidate at the top of the ballot.

Ohio remains at No. 4 on this list and is the state most likely to flip among those Trump won by double digits in 2024.

Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown has an edge in the most recent state poll over GOP Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to fill the Senate seat vacated by Vance. A Fox News poll last month found Brown up 8 points over Husted — similar to polling from the outlet in June. The same survey also found 51% of voters are concerned Husted is too close to Trump.

Brown’s ads against Husted have been particularly effective, taunting his rival over links to Les Wexner, the Ohio billionaire closely connected to Jeffrey Epstein and criticizing his record on data centers.

Republicans acknowledge the data center issue is potent . A recent strategy memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee and obtained by CNN warned the facilities are a drag on Husted. “Brown is using it because it works,” the memo said. “More than any other thing in this race, data centers are the anchor hanging around Husted’s neck.”

A uniquely bipartisan backlash against data centers shakes up the midterms

Husted has tried to recalibrate, introducing legislation aimed at limiting data centers’ impact on residential electric bills.

Republicans have tried their own attacks on Brown. The Senate Leadership Fund rolled out a new ad accusing Brown of party-line voting and linking him to liberal leaders such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and El-Sayed.

The Senate race has emerged as a top-line item for both parties. No midterms race has more fall ad reservations — over $187 million booked between the start of September and Election Day — with Republicans accounting for more than $107 million, and Democrats more than $80 million, according to AdImpact data.

Kerry Tasker/Reuters

The competitive Senate race in Alaska keeps its spot at No. 5 after August’s all-party primary offered an early look at voters’ preferences.

The general election, which will use a ranked-choice voting system, will feature Democrat Mary Peltola, a former congresswoman; GOP Sen. Dan S. Sullivan; Dan J. Sullivan, a former schoolteacher who filed to run as a Republican; and Gerald Heikes, another Republican.

Peltola led the pack with 49.5% of the vote, while Sen. Sullivan trailed behind her at 41.4% — a welcome data point for Democrats. But it’s not necessarily predictive of an outcome in November. For instance, Peltola earned 51% in the 2024 primary for her House seat but still lost the general election that year.

Republicans also are contending with two Dan Sullivans on the ballot in November, a scenario the GOP fears could lead to confusion and split the vote in the highly competitive race.

Trump, who won the state by 13 points in 2024, has pledged to campaign for Sen. Sullivan. “I’ll go out there to fight for him,” Trump said earlier this month. “I will go to Alaska to make sure that a great senator gets reelected.”

In anticipation of a competitive fall race, Republicans are mobilizing resources. According to AdImpact data, GOP advertisers have $28 million worth of ad reservations booked from September through Election Day, with No Going Back PAC accounting for $11.2 million and the Senate Leadership Fund providing another $7.9 million. Democrats have devoted about $9.9 million to the race, with a sizable amount coming from the blue-aligned WinSenate PAC.

Top GOP outside groups have been on the air attacking Peltola and promoting Sen. Sullivan, criticizing the Democrat’s record on veterans’ issues and praising the incumbent’s efforts in Congress. Peltola, meanwhile, has sought to distance herself from the Democratic political brand — “I’ll take on anyone, including Democrats,” she says in one spot, while hitting her GOP opponent for voting against a measure seeking the release of the Epstein files.

New Hampshire jumps up two spots on the list of states most likely to flip as Democrats’ grip on the Senate seat has shown signs of slipping.

Rep. Chris Pappas won the Democratic Senate primary on Tuesday with 65% of the vote against Karishma Manzur, a democratic socialist. On the GOP side, former Sen. John E. Sununu defeated former Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown.

Republicans feel increasingly bullish about the state after recent polling showed the contest between Sununu and Pappas tightening. A University of New Hampshire poll conducted last month showed Sununu with 45% support of likely voters and Pappas at 43%, indicating no clear leader. A survey conducted by the same group in April found Pappas up 7 points over Sununu.

Pappas has sounded the alarm, warning of the impact the race has on Democrats’ path to the majority. “This is a purple state. It’s a highly competitive race,” Pappas told CNN’s Manu Raju last month. “We’ve got to hold this race in order for the rest of the math to work for Democrats to take back the Senate majority.”

Republican groups have reserved over $31 million for ads for the final two months of the race, with more than $12 million coming from the Senate Leadership Fund and another $10 million from the Trump-linked No Going Back PAC, according to AdImpact data. Democrats have set aside about $18.5 million.

New Hampshire is well-known for its independent streak, which could come into play in this election. Granite State voters have sided with Democrats in the last six presidential cycles and have not elected a GOP senator since 2010. But they have picked GOP governors going back to 2016, voting for Sununu’s brother Chris in most of those races. The Democrat-aligned WinSenate released a new ad reminding voters which Sununu is on the ballot.

A Republican win in New Hampshire would certainly disrupt the Democratic map, requiring even more blue wins in red territory. Democrats believe this race in a state Harris won in 2024 will come home to them in the end, but the close nature could give the keep the party on edge for the next seven weeks.

Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images

With New Hampshire jumping up to six, Texas stays as the seventh Senate seat most likely to flip. Democratic state Rep. James Talarico has kept the race against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton more competitive than Republicans would like in a state Trump won by nearly 14 points.

Democrats believe Paxton’s controversy-laden past and Talarico’s broader appeal could give them a real shot at turning Texas blue in November. Republicans are betting GOP voters will put aside Paxton’s scandals and focus instead on his work supporting Trump’s agenda.

Trump put the election spotlight on Texas last week with his midterm convention in Dallas, promising to campaign for Paxton even as he made fun of the candidate’s style and looks.

Talarico has dominated the fundraising race and spent the summer months virtually uncontested on the airwaves, running ads thousands of times introducing the first-time statewide candidate to voters and emphasizing cost-of-living concerns. According to AdImpact data, between June — shortly after Paxton captured the GOP nomination in a runoff with incumbent Sen. John Cornyn — and the end of August, Democrats outspent Republicans on advertising by about $30 million to $5.5 million.

After much fretting , GOP reinforcements for Paxton are now starting to come online. Republicans so far have allotted $77 million for ads for the final months of the campaign, including big investments from pro-Paxton Lone Star Liberty PAC, MAGA Inc., and Texas PAC. Texas PAC, which has ties to the Senate Leadership Fund, recently reserved more than $51.5 million for Paxton and is making its first play for Paxton of the cycle, according to AdImpact data.

Democrats have reserved about $14.5 million in the same stretch, with the majority coming directly from Talarico’s campaign, according to AdImpact data. It’s unclear whether outside spending from Democratic groups will add to this total in the coming weeks.

Texas is a large and expensive state, but Republicans hope the incoming ad blitz will shift the race into more comfortable Republican territory. Democrats, however, are feeling a blue win in the Lone Star State could be in sight.

Texas and the next state, which could easily swap positions on this list, would become even more critical if the GOP picks off Michigan and New Hampshire.

Cody Scanlan/The Register/USA Today/Imagn Images

Iowa remains a competitive race but drops to eight in this month’s rankings given the movement seen in some of the other contests.

The close matchup between GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson, a former news anchor, and Democratic nominee Josh Turek , a state lawmaker and gold-medal winning Paralympian, has proved consistent in a state Trump won by 13 points in 2024.

Aware of the political dynamics of Iowa, the red-state Democrat’s recent ads feature bipartisan pledges to work with Trump on issues like immigration. “In the Senate, Josh will work with anyone to clean up corruption and secure the border — including President Trump — and he’s got 700 votes to prove it,” a narrator in one ad says, citing Turek’s votes with Republicans in the state legislature.

Other political factors, including rising fertilizer prices and the impacts of tariffs, add to a challenging environment for Republicans. Hinson, who is viewed as a strong campaigner, has run closely to the president’s agenda but recently criticized his decision to allow more imported beef into the country, a move that angered cattle producers in the state. “I think it’s a bad idea,” Hinson told reporters last month after flipping pork patties, a rite of passage at the Iowa State Fair.

GOP outside groups are making their presence felt in Iowa’s Senate race. From the June 2 primary through the end of August, One Nation, the GOP dark money nonprofit, spent $13.6 million on ads touting Hinson and attacking Turek, according to AdImpact data. Overall, Republicans led Democrats in advertising for the race in that span by about $23.5 million to $14.6 million.

The GOP has reserved nearly $53 million in ads for the final months of the campaign, with $22.6 million coming from the Senate Leadership Fund. Democrats have allotted over $36 million for the same period with WinSenate accounting for over $29 million.

In addition to the Senate contest, the Hawkeye State features three competitive congressional races and a gubernatorial showdown where Democratic nominee Rob Sand appears to have an edge, raising the possibility the state could elect a Democrat as governor for the first time in 20 years. A Sand win could help Democrats down the ballot, including Turek, who has kept this race against Hinson close.

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Once again, Georgia is the state least likely to flip despite Sen. Jon Ossoff’s status as the only incumbent Democrat running in a state Trump won in 2024.

Leading GOP Rep. Mike Collins in the polls, fundraising and the attention race in their midterm matchup, the first-term senator is even generating some 2028 buzz, although he insists his focus remains on 2026.

Ossoff’s anti-Trump broadsides have become a hallmark of his campaign, energizing Democrats and donors eager to see stronger pushback on the current administration. His comments about Trump aide Natalie Harp drew more eyeballs to his campaign, provoked an irked response from the White House and drove the news cycle for days.

“They made you pay more for everything, and lied us into war, and spent most of the last year covering up for the world’s most famous pedophile,” Ossoff told supporters at a rally Sunday. “All while the crook president and his crook family raked in billions, all over the world.”

Collins, meanwhile, has faced a slate of negative stories about his ties to White nationalists , including reporting from CNN’s KFile . The Washington Post last month reported on a former Collins staffer who shared images of a swastika and Ku Klux Klan paraphernalia on social media. While Collins has declined to answer specific questions about his associations, the campaign has repeatedly stressed the congressman’s condemnation of antisemitism and his support for Israel.

Jessica McGowan/Getty Images

GOP Senate candidate has close ties to White nationalist influencer, his son-in-law

The Senate Leadership Fund has sought to focus on Ossoff’s own image. “Thousands on hair and makeup. What a phony,” claims an individual in the ad, going on to say Ossoff should “put down the mascara,” and that “pretty boy has an ugly record.” The ad includes several instances of AI-generated video that shows Ossoff receiving cosmetic treatments.

“It is deeply troubling to see these deepfake videos used to fabricate political advertising. And it’s a slippery slope toward the destruction of truth in political debate. And the ad should come down immediately, for that reason,” Ossoff responded.

Democrats are outspending Republicans fueled largely by Ossoff’s $77 million war chest. Democrats so far have over $40 million (over half coming directly from the Ossoff campaign) reserved from September through Election Day, while Republicans allotted $31 million. The Senate Leadership Fund has dedicated $26 million, while No Going Back PAC has set aside $2.1 million — the smallest amount for any Senate race, according to AdImpact data.

The electoral dynamics of the state, which Trump won in 2016 and 2024, suggest this race could narrow in the coming months, but barring a major development, this contest seems pretty firmly on Ossoff’s side.

In addition to these nine states, here are a few contests we’re keeping a close eye on in the coming months:

Grant Baldwin/Getty Images

Kansas : Both parties are watching the Kansas Senate race between Republican Sen. Roger Marshall and Democrat Adam Hamilton, a United Methodist megachurch pastor with strong fundraising. Earlier this month, Marshall started running an attack ad against his opponent, and the vice president is headlining a MAGA Inc. event in the state on Monday. Hamilton’s bid may still be a long shot, but it could keep Republicans on their toes heading into November.

Montana: Montana’s Senate race features a three-way general election fight between Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead, GOP nominee Kurt Alme and independent Seth Bodnar. Some prominent Montana Democrats, including former Sens. Max Baucus and Jon Tester, are backing Bodnar, a former University of Montana president, while Bankhead resisted some calls to drop out of the contest.

Nebraska: Nebraska is another race with an independent trying to flip a GOP-held seat in November. Dan Osborn, an independent who ran unsuccessfully in 2024, is challenging GOP Sen. Pete Ricketts. It’s an uphill climb for the independent but strategists are watching closely.

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