Super El Niño is actually here now, and it’s only going to get stronger

An already-strong El Niño just turned super as the phenomenon crosses into unprecedented territory.

The natural climate cycle has been strengthening at a breakneck pace since it was first declared in June and is stronger now than it’s ever been on this date. And isn’t done bulking up yet.

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Forecasters have thought for months that El Niño would become very strong or “super” by this fall. The key measure of its strength has now crossed that threshold and will continue to soar higher.

As a refresher: El Niño is characterized by warmer - than - average water temperatures along the equator in the Pacific Ocean. The warmer water triggers corresponding shifts in the atmosphere that have a domino effect on weather patterns around the globe.

An active Pacific hurricane season that’s churned out multiple threats for Hawaii , a hurricane-less Atlantic hurricane season to date and Indonesia’s overwhelming wildfires are just a few effects of this very strong El Niño.

The stronger an El Niño is, the more likely it is to influence these types of weather patterns — but it doesn’t guarantee more extreme impacts.

To capture El Niño’s strength, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters measure how far above normal sea surface temperatures are in a specific region of the Pacific, using a metric called the Niño 3.4 Relative Oceanic Niño Index, or RONI.

The latest weekly RONI value just hit 2.0 degrees Celsius, 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, above average. This is the threshold for “very strong,” the highest official category set by forecasters. That’s also when El Niño gains its unofficial “super” moniker.

These weekly values from NOAA capture a reliable snapshot of El Niño’s strength in real-time, which is crucial because of just how fast the event is gaining ground.

This time a year ago, a weak La Niña — El Niño’s cool counterpart — was in place, and only a handful of other years have had such a rapid flip to a potent El Niño, including the strongest ever event from 1982 to 1983.

Even so, using the weekly values is a slight departure from the norm.

NOAA’s most widely recognized strength metric is a three-month rolling average RONI. The rolling average’s purpose is to smooth out choppy short-term changes in data in favor of capturing a cleaner long-term average; that value updates once a month.

This is how a climate record that dates back decades is built, but the delayed data means it’ll take weeks for that reading to truly capture how super-sized El Niño is right now.

This isn’t a normal event: In addition to being the strongest El Niño on record on this date, it’s ultimately likely to become stronger than any event before it.

By the end of the year, El Niño has a 75% chance of peaking as the strongest event since records began in 1950, according to NOAA’s latest forecast issued last week.

This year’s El Niño is also happening in a much hotter world than previous record-setting events due to climate change. One look at sea surface temperatures from this year compared to past record events shows just how much fossil fuel pollution has rewritten the rules.

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El Niño events are becoming stronger as the world warms

Climate change has literally changed the metric used to monitor El Niño. This event is the first to be captured by NOAA’s aforementioned RONI, which was first implemented in February.

The old metric took sea surface temperatures at face value, but RONI subtracts out how much warmer the Pacific Ocean is because of climate change to get the “true” strength of El Niño.

Even so, this El Niño continues to clear hurdles in its pursuit of record-breaking strength later this fall or early this winter.

Winter is when El Niño is forecast to hit its peak strength and is also typically when its influence on global weather is most pronounced, but it’s already left many calling cards behind this summer as it strengthened rapidly.

It was, and continues to be, a major factor in both the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. In the Atlantic, it’s taken storm-killing wind shear to extreme levels and kept it there, even at what should be the busiest time of the season. That’s created a record-long wait for the season’s first hurricane.

El Niño has prevented that same type of wind shear over the exceptionally warm Pacific and activity exploded. Sixteen storms, including two Category 5 hurricanes, have formed and thrived in the eastern and central parts of the ocean so far, with Hawaii alone facing three tropical systems in less than a month.

Fourteen of those storms originated in the East Pacific, which, with two and a half months of the season still to come, will likely blow past its average seasonal storm total of 15.

Elsewhere, Indonesia is battling widespread wildfires and conditions could deteriorate further: El Niño years make the country drier than usual, which leaves plenty of tinder-dry vegetation for blazes to consume and limited rainfall to help fire crews tamp down ongoing activity.

It’s clear El Niño is already a major player, but it will hit its full stride in the months ahead, right on time to dictate winter weather across the US.

原本就十分强烈的厄尔尼诺现象如今已发展成超级厄尔尼诺现象，进入了前所未有的领域。

自6月份首次宣布以来，自然气候周期一直在以惊人的速度增强，如今的强度比以往任何时候都要强。而且，这种增强势头尚未停止。

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几个月来，预测人员一直认为厄尔尼诺现象将在今年秋季变得非常强烈，甚至达到“超级”级别。衡量其强度的关键指标现在已经突破了这一阈值，并将继续攀升。

简单回顾一下：厄尔尼诺现象的特征是太平洋赤道附近海域的水温高于平均水平。水温升高会引发大气发生相应的变化，进而对全球天气模式产生连锁反应。

活跃的太平洋飓风季给夏威夷带来了多重威胁，而迄今为止大西洋飓风季却没有出现飓风，再加上印度尼西亚肆虐的野火，这些都只是此次强厄尔尼诺现象带来的几个影响。

厄尔尼诺现象越强，就越有可能影响这类天气模式——但这并不能保证会产生更极端的影响。

为了捕捉厄尔尼诺现象的强度，美国国家海洋和大气管理局的预报员使用一种称为尼诺 3.4 相对海洋尼诺指数 (RONI) 的指标来测量太平洋特定区域的海面温度高于正常水平的程度。

最新的每周RONI值刚刚达到2.0摄氏度（3.6华氏度），比平均值高出2.0摄氏度。这达到了“非常强”厄尔尼诺现象的阈值，也是预报员设定的最高官方等级。此时，厄尔尼诺现象也获得了非正式的“超级”厄尔尼诺称号。

美国国家海洋和大气管理局 (NOAA) 提供的这些每周数值可以可靠地实时反映厄尔尼诺现象的强度，这一点至关重要，因为该现象发展速度非常快。

一年前的这个时候，弱拉尼娜现象（厄尔尼诺现象的冷对应现象）正在发生，只有少数年份像现在这样迅速转变为强厄尔尼诺现象，其中包括 1982 年至 1983 年最强的一次厄尔尼诺现象。

即便如此，使用每周数值与常规做法略有不同。

美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）最广为人知的强度指标是三个月滚动平均RONI值。滚动平均值的目的是平滑数据中短期波动，从而获得更清晰的长期平均值；该值每月更新一次。

这就是构建可追溯到几十年前的气候记录的方式，但延迟的数据意味着需要数周时间才能真正反映出厄尔尼诺现象目前的规模有多大。

这并非寻常事件：除了是迄今为止有记录以来最强的厄尔尼诺现象之外，它最终很可能会比以往任何一次厄尔尼诺现象都更加强烈。

根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）上周发布的最新预测，到今年年底，厄尔尼诺现象有 75% 的概率达到峰值，成为自 1950 年有记录以来最强的一次厄尔尼诺事件。

由于气候变化，今年的厄尔尼诺现象发生在比以往任何一次都更加炎热的全球范围内。只需对比一下今年和以往的纪录年份的海面温度，就能看出化石燃料污染对气候的影响有多么巨大。

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随着全球变暖，厄尔尼诺现象变得越来越强烈。

气候变化已经彻底改变了监测厄尔尼诺现象的指标。此次事件是美国国家海洋和大气管理局（NOAA）上述的RONI系统首次捕捉到的厄尔尼诺现象，该系统于今年2月首次投入使用。

旧的衡量标准直接采用海面温度，但 RONI 减去了由于气候变化导致太平洋变暖的程度，从而得出厄尔尼诺现象的“真实”强度。

即便如此，今年秋季晚些时候或冬季初，厄尔尼诺现象仍将继续克服重重障碍，力图打破纪录。

预计厄尔尼诺现象将在冬季达到顶峰强度，并且通常也是它对全球天气影响最显著的时候，但今年夏天它已经迅速增强，并留下了许多痕迹。

它过去是，现在仍然是影响大西洋和太平洋飓风季的重要因素。在大西洋，它将足以摧毁风暴的风切变推向了极端水平，并使其持续存在，即使在通常应该是飓风季最活跃的时期也是如此。这导致了本季首个飓风出现的时间创下了历史新长。

厄尔尼诺现象阻止了太平洋上空出现类似类型的风切变，导致异常温暖的太平洋海域热带气旋活动激增。迄今为止，太平洋东部和中部海域已形成并发展了16个风暴，其中包括两个五级飓风。仅夏威夷一地，不到一个月的时间就遭遇了三个热带气旋。

其中 14 个风暴起源于东太平洋，而本季还有两个半月的时间，东太平洋的风暴总数很可能会超过其平均季节风暴总数 15 个。

而在其他地方，印度尼西亚正遭受大范围野火的侵袭，情况可能会进一步恶化：厄尔尼诺年使该国比往常更加干燥，留下了大量干燥易燃的植被供火灾吞噬，而降雨量有限，不利于消防人员控制火势。

很明显，厄尔尼诺现象已经产生了重大影响，但在接下来的几个月里，它将达到鼎盛时期，届时将左右美国各地的冬季天气。