10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, critical threshold for US economy and markets

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The rise in bond yields hit a critical threshold on Monday, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 5%, a level briefly touched in 2023 and otherwise not seen since 2007. The move in the key benchmark could mean higher costs for Americans who want to buy a home, finance a car or take out other loans.

The 10-year yield extended a recent surge that has pushed up borrowing costs for consumers, businesses and the US government. Yields have climbed despite efforts by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to quell concerns in the bond market.

The global bond market, dominated by the almost $32 trillion US Treasury market, has sold off as investors grapple with a mosaic of concerns, from soaring energy prices and expectations for central banks to raise interest rates to uncertainty about the war with Iran and unchecked government spending amid mounting debt.

Yields on government bonds across the globe have touched multi-year and multi-decade highs this year, raising the cost of borrowing money. It’s compounding concerns about affordability, adding to unease about governments’ enormous debt burdens and threatening to weigh on the stock market.

Yields rise when bonds price falls. The bond market sell-off this year has pushed prices lower and sent the 10-year yield toward levels not seen in nearly two decades. The 10-year yield is now at its highest level since October 2023 and just a whisker away from its highest level since 2007, which was the last time the 10-year yield rose firmly above 5%.

The 10-year yield entered the year trading at 4.15%, and dipped below 4% in February. After the start of the war with Iran, yields sharply reversed course and started climbing – and they’ve yet to stop. The 10-year yield hit 4.5% in May before hitting 5% on Monday.

Higher bond yields translate into higher interest rates, making borrowing money more expensive.

The 10-year yield is the benchmark for borrowing costs across the economy. Rising yields can push up the interest rates people pay on their mortgages and other loans.

The housing market is where higher yields can really sting. Mortgage rates closely track the 10-year Treasury yield. As the 10-year yield has surged this year, the average 30-year mortgage rate has climbed to its highest level in more than a year.

The rise in yields has sent mortgage rates climbing. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.76% last week, up from 6.15% at the start of the year.

Higher bond yields can impact analysts’ calculations for companies’ future earnings and stocks’ value. Higher yields on trustworthy government bonds can also draw investors away from riskier assets like stocks.

A rise in bond yields can put pressure on stocks, but it depends on the context in which yields are rising and how volatile the moves are.

The bond market rout is global. Here’s what’s driving it

When yields spike dramatically or volatility rears its head, it can send shocks through the stock market. That was the dynamic in April 2025, when President Donald Trump’s tariffs rocked financial markets. The 10-year yield spiked, the dollar dropped and stocks took a dive.

Yet yields this year have steadily climbed, and the S&P 500 is still up more than 10%. When stocks are soaring because of strong corporate earnings, that can outweigh nerves about higher yields.

Markets might be able to handle steadily climbing yields, but it does create more risks for stocks. If earnings were to take a hit, higher yields can trample on stocks.

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How the spike in global bond yields creates more risk for the stock market

The rise in global yields isn’t entirely surprising, analysts say, and could signal that the era of ultra-low interest rates is over, with rates trading at levels more typical of past decades.

After the 2008 financial crisis, central banks across the globe lowered interest rates to ultra-low levels.

Now, global markets are moving on from that era. That shift started in 2022, when central banks hikes rates to tamp down inflation sparked by the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The 10-year yield traded at 1.3% five years ago. Now, it is at 5%.

“What we’ve been communicating to our clients is ‘normal for longer,’ meaning these factors are here to stay,” Luis Alvarado, co-head of global fixed income strategy at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, told CNN.

There’s been a sustained push higher in yields across the globe this year, which picked up after the start of the war with Iran. Ten-year yields in Germany, France and the United Kingdom are all at levels not seen in more than a decade.

Yields are rising as higher energy prices push central banks to raise interest rates to tamp down inflation. The European Central Bank raised interest rates last week, its second hike this year.

In the backdrop, investors are increasingly skeptical of governments’ bloated budgets and mounting deficits.

穆罕默德·埃瑟/阿纳多卢/盖蒂图片社

周一，债券收益率的上涨触及关键门槛，10年期美国国债收益率升至5%，这一水平上次出现是在2023年，而此前从未达到过，最高水平则要追溯到2007年。这一关键基准的变动可能意味着，对于想要购房、购车或申请其他贷款的美国人来说，成本将会上升。

10年期国债收益率延续了近期的上涨势头，推高了消费者、企业和美国政府的借贷成本。尽管财政部长斯科特·贝森特努力平息债券市场的担忧，但收益率依然攀升。

全球债券市场（以规模近 32 万亿美元的美国国债市场为主导）遭到抛售，投资者正努力应对一系列担忧，包括能源价格飙升、央行预期加息、伊朗战争的不确定性以及债务不断攀升导致政府支出失控等。

今年以来，全球各国政府债券收益率均触及多年甚至数十年来的最高水平，推高了借贷成本。这加剧了人们对政府偿债能力的担忧，加深了人们对政府巨额债务负担的不安，并可能对股市构成压力。

债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。今年债券市场的抛售潮压低了债券价格，并将10年期国债收益率推至近20年来的最低水平。目前，10年期国债收益率处于2023年10月以来的最高水平，距离2007年以来的最高水平仅一步之遥。2007年是10年期国债收益率上一次稳定超过5%的年份。

10年期国债收益率年初报4.15%，2月份一度跌破4%。伊朗战争爆发后，收益率走势急剧逆转，开始攀升，至今仍未停止。5月份，10年期国债收益率触及4.5%，本周一更是突破5%。

债券收益率越高，利率就越高，借贷成本也就越高。

10年期国债收益率是衡量整个经济体借贷成本的基准。收益率上升会推高人们的抵押贷款和其他贷款的利率。

在房地产市场，高收益率带来的冲击尤为显著。抵押贷款利率与10年期美国国债收益率密切相关。今年以来，随着10年期国债收益率飙升，30年期抵押贷款的平均利率也攀升至一年多来的最高水平。

收益率上升导致抵押贷款利率攀升。上周，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率升至6.76%，高于年初的6.15%。

债券收益率上升会影响分析师对公司未来盈利和股票价值的预测。信誉良好的政府债券收益率上升也可能吸引投资者抛售股票等风险较高的资产。

债券收益率上升可能会给股​​市带来压力，但这取决于收益率上升的背景以及波动程度。

债券市场暴跌是全球性的。以下是其背后的驱动因素。

当收益率急剧飙升或市场波动加剧时，股市可能会受到冲击。2025年4月，特朗普总统的关税政策震动了金融市场，情况正是如此。10年期国债收益率飙升，美元下跌，股市暴跌。

然而，今年以来收益率稳步攀升，标普500指数仍上涨超过10%。当强劲的企业盈利推动股市飙升时，这种利好因素可以抵消人们对收益率上升的担忧。

市场或许能够承受收益率的持续攀升，但这确实会给股票带来更多风险。如果企业盈利受到冲击，更高的收益率可能会对股票造成沉重打击。

安吉拉·韦斯/法新社/盖蒂图片社

全球债券收益率飙升如何给股市带来更多风险

分析人士表示，全球收益率上升并不完全出乎意料，这可能预示着超低利率时代已经结束，利率正处于过去几十年更为典型的水平。

2008年金融危机后，全球各国央行将利率降至超低水平。

如今，全球市场正在告别那个时代。这一转变始于2022年，当时各国央行纷纷加息以抑制由疫情和俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发的通胀。

五年前，10年期国债收益率为1.3%。现在，它已达到5%。

富国银行投资研究所全球固定收益策略联席主管路易斯·阿尔瓦拉多告诉 CNN：“我们一直向客户传达的信息是‘这种情况将持续更长时间’，这意味着这些因素将会长期存在。”

今年以来，全球债券收益率持续走高，尤其是在伊朗战争爆发后，这一趋势更加明显。德国、法国和英国的十年期国债收益率均已达到十多年来的最高水平。

由于能源价格上涨迫使各国央行提高利率以抑制通胀，收益率正在上升。欧洲央行上周提高了利率，这是今年以来的第二次加息。

在此背景下，投资者对政府臃肿的预算和不断增加的赤字越来越持怀疑态度。