Russia’s drone strike near Ukraine-Poland border puts NATO neighbors on edge

Ukrainian Ukrzaliznytsia Railway Company Press Office/AP

It doesn’t really matter if they meant to do it.

The Russian drone strike that hit a train near Ukraine’s border with Poland as a group of former Western officials travelled out of the country is a clear escalation by Moscow. Ukraine’s railway network said it believes former CIA chief David Petraeus, former UK prime minister Boris Johnson and other dignitaries who were all nearby, either at the local railway station or on trains, were likely targeted.

Intent is hard to prove in conflict. The proof, to some degree, is an afterthought in the rubble – the damage is by then clear, as is the need for retaliation. Killing a former CIA chief on a railway platform would have provided some element of deniability for Russia; how could they know for sure he was there? But it would fulfil the warnings of Western intelligence, circulating for some time now, that Moscow will seek some form of escalation with Ukraine’s NATO allies in the near future.

A full-on military conflict with NATO seemed an unlikely goal for a Russian state struggling to suppress and occupy its relatively tiny neighbor. Instead, a lateral move, in the deniable hybrid space, seemed more likely, and Ukraine and others warned its borders with NATO states might come under attack.

The immediate impact of Ukraine’s diplomatic commuter link being under attack is profound. The railway is the best method for heads of state or senior officials from Ukraine’s allies to get in and out of Kyiv, to show vital support, share the most sensitive intelligence, or discuss vital matters. Trains, and the civilians on them, now routinely come under attack from Russian drones. The latest versions use other airborne Russian drones to transmit signals and even video feeds, in real time, back to their pilots inside Russia. These “mesh” networks extend their range and lessen the risk electronic warfare can disrupt them, a remarkable development that helped Moscow hit trains so close to Poland.

Henry Nicholls/Getty Images

The net result is Western officials and their security details, whose job it is to minimize risk, must now either rethink how they get in and out of Ukraine or widen the envelope of acceptable risk. In a wartorn country where air travel is too perilous to even consider, the roads are the obvious option, but are jammed, precarious, and cursed with long, torturous border queues. New ideas are needed to maintain the flow of high-profile visitors to Kyiv at a time when shows of support, real aid, and proper partnership are essential. It is likely that without the option of a swift and safe railway, Western officials facing a longer trip time than about 10 hours each way will reconsider whether a remote video call isn’t just better.

This is likely part of Russia’s aim – to deny Ukraine the easy and free use of its border crossings and rail network to move goods and important visitors, and to leave its Western neighbors on edge. Moscow’s drip-drip escalation has been palpable for years now, as sabotage incidents become more frequent, and recklessness in the form of stray drones or ballistic missiles cross into and test NATO’s outer defenses. None of this sustained probing is accidental. It all fits inside Russia’s grey-zone doctrine of conflict, in which heightening confrontation happens in gradual, tiny steps, none of which, in themselves, appear worth starting a war over.

But the picture is increasingly bleak for NATO and, of course, Ukraine. Moscow correctly calculates that NATO – fractured between the Trump administration and Europe and partially distracted with Iran – does not have the bandwidth or budget for proper conflict with a Kremlin that believes winning – or even sustaining - this war in some way is a matter of survival.

Similarly, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin lacks the resources to risk a full-on war with NATO. But his military-industrial base is slowly edging into a new era of cheaper, longer-range, more accurate and deadly drones and missiles. The new Russian jet-powered Geran 4 and 5 drones travel at 600 kilometers (373 miles) an hour over 1,000 kilometers. Ukraine struggles to stop them, and its engineers are working on the issue 24/7 as a matter of life and death. For NATO, they represent a future horror that European member states hope never comes their way, given that their military spending on the technology they would need to defend themselves is, to be polite, uselessly behind the curve.

Ukrainians already face a winter blighted by heightened attacks on heating and food supplies. That is guaranteed, especially as the West has failed to supply them with more Patriot interceptors. The fresh struggle of the coming months will be for NATO to tackle Moscow’s growing reach, daring and persistence, when it comes to threatening their borders, former prime ministers on railways, and probably border crossing points too.

The warnings of escalation have amplified for months. With Sunday’s railway attack, the moment of their realization is upon a poorly-equipped Western alliance.

乌克兰铁路公司新闻办公室/美联社

他们是否故意这样做其实并不重要。

俄罗斯无人机袭击了乌克兰与波兰边境附近的一列火车，当时一群西方前官员正准备离开该国。这显然是莫斯科方面的一次升级行动。乌克兰铁路部门表示，他们认为美国中央情报局局长戴维·彼得雷乌斯、英国前首相鲍里斯·约翰逊以及其他一些当时在附近（可能在当地火车站或火车上）的政要很可能是袭击目标。

在冲突中，意图很难证明。某种程度上，证据只能在废墟中事后寻觅——那时破坏已然清晰，报复的必要性也显而易见。在火车站台上杀害一位前中央情报局局长，或许能为俄罗斯提供一些否认的余地；他们又怎能确定他当时就在那里呢？但这却印证了西方情报机构一段时间以来的警告：莫斯科将在不久的将来寻求与乌克兰的北约盟国发生某种形式的冲突升级。

对于一个正努力压制和占领其相对较小的邻国的俄罗斯来说，与北约爆发全面军事冲突似乎不太可能。相反，在可否认的混合空间采取横向行动似乎更有可能，乌克兰和其他国家警告称，其与北约国家的边界​​可能遭到攻击。

乌克兰外交通勤通道遭受攻击的直接影响是深远的。铁路是乌克兰盟国国家元首或高级官员进出基辅、展现重要支持、分享最敏感情报或讨论重要事项的最佳途径。如今，列车及其乘客经常遭到俄罗斯无人机的攻击。最新版本的无人机利用其他俄罗斯无人机实时向俄罗斯境内的操控者传输信号甚至视频。这些“网状”网络扩大了无人机的攻击范围，并降低了电子战干扰的风险，这一显著的进步使得莫斯科能够在波兰附近袭击列车。

Henry Nicholls/Getty Images

最终结果是，西方官员及其安保人员（他们的职责是尽可能降低风险）现在要么必须重新考虑如何进出乌克兰，要么必须扩大可接受风险的范围。在一个饱受战火蹂躏、航空旅行风险极高的国家，公路显然是唯一的选择，但公路拥堵不堪、路况危险，而且边境排队时间长、令人痛苦。在当前亟需展现支持、提供切实援助和建立有效伙伴关系的时期，我们需要新的方案来维持高级别访客访问基辅的渠道。如果无法选择快捷安全的铁路，那么单程超过10小时的西方官员很可能会重新考虑，远程视频通话是否是更好的选择。

这很可能是俄罗斯的目标之一——阻止乌克兰便捷自由地使用其边境口岸和铁路网络运输货物和重要访客，并令其西方邻国感到不安。多年来，莫斯科的逐步升级行动已显而易见，破坏事件日益频繁，无人机或弹道导弹等鲁莽行为越境并试探北约的外围防御。所有这些持续的试探并非偶然。这一切都符合俄罗斯的灰色地带冲突理论，即逐步升级对抗，每次升级都看似微不足道，不值得为此发动战争。

但对北约以及乌克兰而言，形势日益严峻。莫斯科的判断是正确的：北约因特朗普政府和欧洲之间的分歧而分裂，又因伊朗问题而分身乏术，因此既没有足够的资源，也没有足够的预算与克里姆林宫展开真正的对抗。克里姆林宫认为，赢得这场战争，甚至维持这场战争，都关乎生死存亡。

同样，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京也缺乏与北约全面开战的资源。但他的军工产业正逐步迈入无人机和导弹价格更低、射程更远、精度更高、杀伤力更强的新时代。俄罗斯新型喷气式动力无人机“格朗4”和“格朗5”的飞行速度可达每小时600公里（373英里），航程超过1000公里。乌克兰竭力拦截这些无人机，其工程师们正夜以继日地研究这个问题，将其视为生死攸关的大事。对于北约而言，这些无人机代表着一种未来恐怖的景象，鉴于其在自卫所需技术上的军费开支，说得委婉些，也只能说是远远落后于时代，欧洲成员国都希望这种恐怖永远不会降临到自己身上。

乌克兰人已经面临着一个饱受袭击的冬季，取暖和食品供应屡遭破坏。尤其是在西方未能向他们提供更多“爱国者”导弹拦截系统的情况下，这种情况几乎是必然的。未来几个月，北约面临的新挑战将是应对莫斯科日益增长的影响力、胆量和持续性，包括威胁其边境、铁路沿线以及可能的边境口岸。

数月来，局势升级的警告不断加剧。随着周日的铁路袭击事件发生，这些警告的后果正降临到装备简陋的西方联盟身上。