US 10-year Treasury yield hits 19-year high with Fed decision eyed

U.S. Treasury yields rose in New York on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year note reaching its highest level since July 2007 as investors braced for a possible Federal Reserve rate hike. Rising oil prices and inflation worries also pushed bond yields higher worldwide. Markets were pricing in a 92.7 percent chance of at least a 25 basis-point Fed hike at Wednesday’s policy meeting.

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note yield rose 4.7 basis points to 5.008 percent after earlier climbing to 5.041 percent.

The 30-year U.S. bond yield added 4.5 basis points to 5.373 percent after earlier touching 5.401 percent.

Treasury auctions were set to add $13 billion in 20-year bonds later on Tuesday.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.688 percent before settling at 4.661 percent, reflecting shifting expectations for Fed action.

Markets were pricing in nearly 100 basis points of Fed hikes over the next 12 months, while Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said he expected 75 basis points of hikes this year.

Published Sep 16, 2026 12:55 am KST

The Treasury Building is viewed in Washington, May 4, 2021. AP-Yonhap

NEW YORK — U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield hitting its highest level since July 2007 as investors brace for what may be the first in a series of rate hikes from the Federal Reserve as it tries to tamp down inflation pressures.

Bond markets around the globe saw yields rise, in part due to continued pressure from rising oil prices, which have boosted expectations for central banks around the globe to raise interest rates.

The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note rose 4.7 basis points to 5.008 percent after climbing to 5.041 percent, its highest since July 19, 2007, and was on track for its sixth advance in the past seven sessions.

The Telegraph reported the Bank of England was poised to announce this week that it will stop selling long-dated government bonds in order to free up cash for the government.

Crude prices were up about 2 percent as supply concerns were elevated after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom's East-West Pipeline offline, extending gains after Libya said it may declare force majeure after protests suspended production at oil fields.

"Any inflation data that we've had, any news out of events that are happening overseas for the geopolitical concerns, anything that's budget-related outside the U.S. or in the U.S., everything keeps pointing in the same direction, there's been no relief at all," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.

"It's all basically the same type of story, a story that pushes yields up, there's been no catalyst to reverse the current momentum that we've seen in bond yields."

The yield on the 30-year bond added 4.5 basis points to 5.373 percent after earlier hitting 5.401 percent, its highest since June 13, 2007.

More supply will come to the market later on Tuesday when Treasury auctions $13 billion in 20-year bonds.

Expectations for a rate hike from the Fed have been steadily increasing in recent weeks, with markets now pricing in a 92.7 percent chance for a hike for at least 25 basis points at the central bank's policy announcement on Wednesday, according to CME FedWatch, up from 59.4 percent a week ago and 33.1 percent a month ago.

A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 34.5 basis points.

A decision to hike rates could leave new Chairman Kevin Warsh in a tight spot, as President Donald Trump picked Warsh with the explicit expectation that he would cut interest rates.

The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, gained 2.7 basis points to 4.661 percent after rising to 4.688 percent, its highest since July 5, 2024.

Markets are now pricing in nearly 100 basis points of hikes over the next 12 months, and Bank of America U.S. economist Aditya Bhave said in a note that he continues to expect 75 basis points worth of hikes from the Fed this year, and that by moving quickly, the central bank will have "a better chance of quelling inflation and keeping a lid on long-end rates."

Morgan Stanley's Chief U.S. Economist Michael Gapen said he now expects two hikes of 25 basis points from the Fed this year, in September and December.

The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.418 percent, unchanged from Monday's close.

The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.377 percent, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4 percent a year for the next decade.

周二，纽约美国国债收益率上涨，基准10年期国债收益率触及2007年7月以来的最高水平，投资者正密切关注美联储可能加息的动向。油价上涨和通胀担忧也推高了全球债券收益率。市场预期美联储在周三的政策会议上加息至少25个基点的可能性高达92.7%。

美国10年期国债收益率基准值上涨4.7个基点至5.008%，此前一度攀升至5.041%。

美国30年期国债收益率上涨4.5个基点至5.373%，此前一度触及5.401%。

美国财政部计划于周二晚些时候通过拍卖增发 130 亿美元的 20 年期国债。

两年期美国国债收益率一度升至 4.688%，最终稳定在 4.661%，反映出市场对美联储行动的预期发生了变化。

市场预期美联储未来 12 个月将加息近 100 个基点，而美国银行经济学家 Aditya Bhave 表示，他预计今年将加息 75 个基点。

发布于2026年9月16日凌晨12:55（韩国标准时间）

2021年5月4日，华盛顿财政部大楼。美联社-韩联社

纽约——周二，美国国债收益率上涨，基准10年期国债收益率达到2007年7月以来的最高水平，投资者正准备迎接美联储为抑制通胀压力而可能采取的一系列加息措施中的第一次。

全球债券市场收益率上升，部分原因是油价持续上涨带来的压力，这推高了全球各国央行提高利率的预期。

美国10年期国债收益率基准值上涨4.7个基点至5.008%，此前一度攀升至5.041%，创下2007年7月19日以来的最高水平，并有望在过去七个交易日中第六次上涨。

《每日电讯报》报道称，英格兰银行本周将宣布停止出售长期政府债券，以便为政府释放现金。

受沙特阿拉伯能源基础设施遭袭导致其东西输油管道停运，引发供应担忧，原油价格上涨约 2%。此前，利比亚表示，由于抗议活动导致油田生产暂停，该国可能宣布不可抗力，油价进一步上涨。

宾夕法尼亚州伯温市布林莫尔信托公司固定收益主管吉姆·巴恩斯表示：“我们掌握的任何通胀数据，任何与地缘政治相关的海外事件消息，任何与美国境内外预算相关的消息，都指向同一个方向，没有任何缓解的迹象。”

“基本上都是同一种情况，都推高了收益率，目前还没有任何催化剂可以扭转债券收益率的上涨势头。”

30 年期国债收益率上涨 4.5 个基点至 5.373%，此前一度触及 5.401%，为 2007 年 6 月 13 日以来的最高水平。

周二晚些时候，财政部将拍卖 130 亿美元的 20 年期债券，届时将有更多债券流入市场。

近几周来，市场对美联储加息的预期稳步上升。据 CME FedWatch 数据显示，目前市场预期美联储在周三的政策声明中加息至少 25 个基点的可能性为 92.7%，高于一周前的 59.4% 和一个月前的 33.1%。

备受关注的美国国债收益率曲线中衡量两年期和十年期国债收益率之间差距的部分，被视为经济预期的指标，目前为正34.5个基点。

如果特朗普决定加息，新任董事长凯文·沃什可能会陷入困境，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统任命沃什的明确期望是他会降低利率。

两年期美国国债收益率通常与美联储的利率预期同步变动，在升至 4.688%（2024 年 7 月 5 日以来的最高水平）后，上涨 2.7 个基点至 4.661%。

市场目前预期未来 12 个月将加息近 100 个基点，美国银行经济学家 Aditya Bhave 在一份报告中表示，他仍然预期美联储今年将加息 75 个基点，并且通过快速行动，央行将“更有可能抑制通胀并控制长期利率”。

摩根士丹利首席美国经济学家迈克尔·加彭表示，他现在预计美联储今年将在9月和12月两次加息，每次加息25个基点。

五年期美国国债通胀保值债券（TIPS）的盈亏平衡利率最新报2.418%，与周一收盘价持平。

10 年期通胀保值债券 (TIPS) 的盈亏平衡利率最新为 2.377%，表明市场预期未来十年通胀率平均约为每年 2.4%。