Italian election could reshape Rome’s defense-spending momentum

ROME — A right-wing coalition tipped to take power in Italy next month has committed to raising defense spending but may only manage a slight increase next year if it focuses on flagship tax cuts or pension increases, a leading analyst has said.

The three-way coalition teaming Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy, Matteo Salvini’s League party and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia is expected to win elections on Sept. 25 following the collapse of a national unity government headed by Mario Draghi.

The change in government comes at a delicate moment for Italy as it seeks to rebuild its economy after the Covid pandemic while weathering energy price hikes triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The country has managed a series of hikes in defense spending in recent years, with outlays on procurement alone reaching €7.85 billion ($7.98 billion) in 2022, up from €5.45 billion ($5.54 billion) in 2020.

But in a budget document issued in July, the government warned that spending would dip in the next two years, with procurement slipping back to €6.18 billion ($6.28bn) in 2023 and €6.43 billion ($6.53bn) in 2024.

Since then, the Draghi government has imploded and as polls point to a clear victory next month for the right-wing parties, they issued a 15 point manifesto this month which commits to pushing up spending to reach the target of two percent of GDP set down by NATO.

The manifesto says the parties will “respect the commitments made to the Atlantic Alliance, including in regard to adjusting defense spending.”

The question is, therefore, whether the coalition will abide by July’s existing forecast for a dip next year, made by the outgoing government, or push on with a hike, as per its manifesto.

Timing could be crucial, said analyst Alessandro Marrone. “We are having the election in the autumn, which is rare and leaves little time to the new government to issue the annual state budget,which must be completed by year end,” said Marrone, who heads the defense program at Rome-based think tank IAI.

“The new parliament will convene in mid-October, the government may not be formed until November and they will then have just a month to complete the budget,” he said.

“My assumption is the conservatives would want to include a flagship measure such as raising pensions or cutting taxes,” he added.

In the rush, defense could be overshadowed, he said. “Defense will not be a flagship measure,” he added.

“That means a likely scenario is only a slight increase in 2023,” he said.

The manifesto also gives a pointer about the right wing coalition’s views on international alliances.

Questions have previously been raised about the parties’ continuing commitment to sending weapons to Ukraine given the close ties in the past between both the League and Berlusconi with Russia.

But the manifesto stresses Italy’s ties to NATO and the West and its “support for Ukraine with regard to the invasion by the Russian Federation.”

The claim that Italy will focus on its western ties over Russian links has been attributed to Giorgia Meloni, who has hitherto backed Italy’s dispatch of weapons to Ukraine while Salvini has opposed it.

As her party leads the polls in Italy on 24 percent, while Salvini slips to 14 and Berlusconi takes about seven percent, Meloni is now seen as being in the driving seat in the coalition, able to call the shots and counter any pro-Russian tendencies within the coalition.

Should the alliance win in September, Marrone said he expected to see continuity in defense policy.

“Giorgio Mule, a current defense junior minister, is a member of Berlusconi’s party, who may continue to take a role in defense,” he said.

Guido Crosetto, a former defense junior minister and former member of Berlusconi’s party, went on to co-found Meloni’s party before becoming head of AIAD, Italy’s defense industry association.

“Crosetto may return to government after the election,” said Marrone.

Based on the past views of the parties, there could be less appetite when it comes to finding international partners or buyers for Italian defense firms under a right-wing government.

When Alessandro Profumo, the CEO of Italian defense giant Leonardo, sounded out French-German joint venture KNDS about buying Italian firm Oto Melara last year, he was met with hostility from the three parties.

“The idea of a sale of Oto Melara by Leonardo, which is drawing strong interest overseas, appears to be being handled in a superficial and shortsighted way, as if this was just an industrial choice, while it is a strategic choice by the nation,” the three parties said at the time in a statement.

Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.

罗马——一位主要分析人士表示，有望下个月在意大利执政的右翼联盟已承诺增加国防开支，但如果该联盟专注于旗舰减税或提高养老金，那么明年可能只能实现小幅增长。

由乔治娅·梅洛尼领导的意大利兄弟党、马泰奥·萨尔维尼领导的联盟党和西尔维奥·贝卢斯科尼领导的意大利力量党组成的三方联盟，预计将在9月25日的大选中获胜，此前由马里奥·德拉吉领导的全国团结政府已经垮台。

意大利正处于一个微妙的时刻，该国正努力在新冠疫情后重建经济，同时还要应对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰引发的能源价格上涨。此时，政府更迭对意大利来说正值关键时期。

近年来，该国国防开支持续增长，仅采购支出就从 2020 年的 54.5 亿欧元（55.4 亿美元）增至 2022 年的 78.5 亿欧元（79.8 亿美元）。

但在 7 月份发布的一份预算文件中，政府警告称，未来两年支出将会下降，采购额将在 2023 年回落至 61.8 亿欧元（62.8 亿美元），在 2024 年回落至 64.3 亿欧元（65.3 亿美元）。

此后，德拉吉政府土崩瓦解，民调显示右翼政党下个月将取得明显胜利，因此他们在本月发布了一份 15 点宣言，承诺增加支出，以达到北约设定的占 GDP 2% 的目标。

该宣言称，各方将“尊重对大西洋联盟作出的承诺，包括调整国防开支方面的承诺”。

因此，问题是，执政联盟是否会遵守即将卸任的政府在 7 月份做出的明年降幅的预测，还是会按照其竞选纲领继续加息。

分析师亚历山德罗·马罗内表示，时机可能至关重要。“我们将在秋季举行选举，这很罕见，留给新政府发布年度国家预算的时间非常有限，而预算必须在年底前完成，”马罗内说道。他是罗马智库IAI国防项目的负责人。

他说：“新一届议会将于10月中旬召开，政府可能要到11月才能组建，届时他们只有一个月的时间来完成预算。”

他补充说：“我的假设是，保守派会希望推出一项旗舰措施，例如提高养老金或减税。”

他表示，在这种仓促之下，国防可能会被忽视。“国防不会成为重点措施，”他补充道。

“这意味着2023年可能只会略有增长，”他说。

该宣言还表明了右翼联盟对国际联盟的看法。

此前曾有人质疑，鉴于联盟党和贝卢斯科尼过去都与俄罗斯关系密切，双方是否会继续致力于向乌克兰输送武器。

但该宣言强调了意大利与北约和西方的联系，以及其“在俄罗斯联邦入侵乌克兰问题上对乌克兰的支持”。

意大利将把重心放在与西方的关系上而不是与俄罗斯的关系上的说法，被认为是乔治娅·梅洛尼提出的。此前，梅洛尼一直支持意大利向乌克兰运送武器，而萨尔维尼则反对这样做。

梅洛尼所在的政党在意大利民调中以 24% 的支持率领先，而萨尔维尼的支持率下滑至 14%，贝卢斯科尼的支持率约为 7%。梅洛尼现在被视为执政联盟中的主导者，能够发号施令，并遏制联盟内部任何亲俄倾向。

马龙表示，如果联盟在9月份的比赛中获胜，他预计国防政策将保持连续性。

“现任国防部副部长乔治·穆莱是贝卢斯科尼所在政党的成员，他可能会继续在国防领域发挥作用，”他说。

吉多·克罗塞托曾任国防部副部长，也是贝卢斯科尼所在政党的成员，后来与人共同创立了梅洛尼的政党，之后成为意大利国防工业协会（AIAD）的负责人。

“克罗塞托可能会在选举后重返政府，”马龙说。

根据各方过去的观点，在右翼政府的领导下，意大利国防企业寻找国际合作伙伴或买家的意愿可能会降低。

去年，意大利国防巨头莱昂纳多公司的首席执行官亚历山德罗·普罗富莫向法德合资企业 KNDS 询问收购意大利公司奥托梅莱拉的可能性时，遭到了三方的敌视。

“莱昂纳多出售奥托梅拉拉的想法在海外引起了强烈兴趣，但处理方式似乎肤浅且目光短浅，仿佛这只是一个工业选择，而实际上这是国家的一项战略选择，”三方当时在一份声明中表示。

汤姆·金顿是《防务新闻》驻意大利记者。