Australia’s military must prepare for conflict if deterrence fails

Australia’s national interest lies in a region that is open, stable, peaceful and prosperous. At the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting Plus in mid-November and at meetings throughout the Pacific, I’ve been clear that Australia is committed to working with our partners to build and defend a region that is peaceful, places the Association of Southeast Asian Nations at its core, respects sovereignty, and operates by agreed rules.

The Australian government is working with its partners to bring about a strategic environment that is characterized by a regional balance, where no actor concludes the benefits of military action outweigh the risks.

But if diplomacy and deterrence do not deliver, we need the military capability to defend ourselves and our interests, in concert with our partners, as we have throughout our history. That means prioritizing capabilities that will discourage anyone from taking actions against our national interests.

In support of this objective, the government has laid the blueprint for investment in a more focused force able to hold any potential adversarial forces at risk and at a greater distance from Australia’s shores.

As a middle power, Australia cannot rely on mass — or overwhelming force — to deter. We need to focus instead on capabilities and partnerships that deliver an asymmetric advantage.

Our acquisition of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines through the AUKUS partnership is integral to achieving this goal. Submarines are, at their core, an asymmetric capability designed for deployment anywhere — including potentially hostile waters — to generate uncertainty and increase the threat of costs for an adversary.

Nuclear-powered submarines provide a formidable deterrent effect; no other platform matches their stealth, endurance, mobility and mix of capabilities. They will enhance our ability to defend Australia and its national interests, as well as contribute to the security and stability of the Indo-Pacific region.

Clearly our future nuclear-powered submarines will be highly capable in conflict, making Australia a more difficult and costly target for anyone who wishes us harm.

Acquiring, operating and sustaining — and eventually building — nuclear-powered submarines will be the most transformative industrial and technical endeavor in our nation’s history. We’ve started by putting in place the international agreements we need to get this endeavor underway. AUKUS partners signed the ground-breaking Agreement for the Exchange of Naval Nuclear Propulsion Information in November 2021.

And we are working openly and transparently with the International Atomic Energy Agency and in consultation with our AUKUS partners to develop safeguards and a verification approach that will ensure Australia continues to meet our nuclear nonproliferation obligations and commitments under the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, the Treaty of Rarotonga and our safeguards agreements with the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Building the workforce to construct, operate, maintain and sustain these submarines has already begun. Australia is working with its AUKUS partners, state and territory governments, industry, unions, education and training institutions, and the scientific and technical sectors to build the workforce we need to succeed.

We are also embedding Australian industry in U.K. and U.S. nuclear-powered submarine construction and sustainment programs.

To kick-start supply chains, we’re exploring opportunities for Australian industry to supply Australian-made materials and components to U.K. and U.S. submarine programs, and creating pathways for Australian industry to carry out maintenance activities on U.S. Virginia-class and U.K. Astute-class submarines during their rotational presence in Australia.

Given the strategic challenges we face, the importance of building a strong and resilient Australian defense industry has never been clearer. Australia needs an industrial base in priority areas for self-reliance. This will include leveraging our close allies and partners’ technology and industrial bases, to their benefit as well as ours.

AUKUS is about expanding the industrial base and building robust and resilient supply chains for all AUKUS partners. Investing in conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines will transform both the Australian Defence Force and Australia’s defense industry, which is a critical partner of our military and is essential to our national interest.

Most important of all, it will make Australia safer and more secure.

Pat Conroy is Australia’s minister for the defense industry as well as minister for international development and the Pacific.

澳大利亚的国家利益在于一个开放、稳定、和平与繁荣的地区。在11月中旬举行的东盟防长扩大会议以及整个太平洋地区的会议上，我已明确表示，澳大利亚致力于与我们的伙伴合作，建设和捍卫一个和平的地区，将东盟置于核心地位，尊重主权，并按照既定规则行事。

澳大利亚政府正与其合作伙伴共同努力，营造一种以区域平衡为特征的战略环境，在这种环境中，没有任何一方会认为军事行动的益处大于风险。

但如果外交和威慑手段失效，我们就需要军事能力来捍卫自身及其利益，并与我们的伙伴国携手合作，正如我们历史上一直做的那样。这意味着要优先发展那些能够阻止任何人采取损害我们国家利益行动的能力。

为了实现这一目标，政府制定了投资蓝图，旨在打造一支更有针对性的部队，使任何潜在的敌对势力都处于危险之中，并使其远离澳大利亚海岸。

作为中等强国，澳大利亚不能依靠兵力优势——或者说压倒性的力量——来起到威慑作用。相反，我们需要专注于发展能够带来非对称优势的能力和伙伴关系。

我们通过AUKUS伙伴关系采购常规武装核动力潜艇，是实现这一目标的关键所在。潜艇本质上是一种非对称作战能力，旨在部署到任何地方——包括潜在的敌对水域——以制造不确定性并增加对手的作战成本。

核动力潜艇具有强大的威慑力；没有任何其他平台能够匹敌它们的隐蔽性、续航能力、机动性和综合作战能力。它们将增强我们保卫澳大利亚及其国家利益的能力，并有助于维护印太地区的安全与稳定。

显然，我们未来的核动力潜艇在冲突中将拥有极强的能力，这将使澳大利亚成为任何想要伤害我们的人的更难得、代价更高的目标。

采购、运营和维护——最终建造——核动力潜艇将是我们国家历史上最具变革性的工业和技术举措。我们已着手落实启动这项事业所需的国际协议。AUKUS合作伙伴于2021年11月签署了具有里程碑意义的《海军核动力推进信息交换协议》。

我们正与国际原子能机构公开透明地合作，并与我们的 AUKUS 合作伙伴协商，制定保障措施和核查方法，以确保澳大利亚继续履行我们在《不扩散核武器条约》、《拉罗汤加条约》以及我们与国际原子能机构签订的保障措施协定下的核不扩散义务和承诺。

建造、操作、维护和保障这些潜艇所需的人才队伍建设工作已经启动。澳大利亚正与AUKUS合作伙伴、各州和领地政府、业界、工会、教育培训机构以及科技部门携手合作，共同打造我们成功所需的人才队伍。

我们还将澳大利亚工业融入英国和美国的核动力潜艇建造和维护计划中。

为了启动供应链，我们正在探索澳大利亚工业向英国和美国的潜艇项目供应澳大利亚制造的材料和部件的机会，并为澳大利亚工业创造途径，使其能够在轮换驻扎在澳大利亚的美国弗吉尼亚级潜艇和英国机敏级潜艇上开展维护活动。

鉴于我们面临的战略挑战，建立强大且具有韧性的澳大利亚国防工业的重要性从未如此清晰。澳大利亚需要在优先领域建立工业基础以实现自力更生。这将包括利用我们紧密盟友和伙伴的技术和工业基础，这既有利于他们，也有利于我们自身。

AUKUS项目旨在扩大工业基础，并为所有AUKUS合作伙伴构建强大且具有韧性的供应链。投资常规武装核动力潜艇将彻底改变澳大利亚国防军和澳大利亚国防工业，而国防工业是澳大利亚军队的关键合作伙伴，对国家利益至关重要。

最重要的是，它将使澳大利亚更加安全。

帕特·康罗伊是澳大利亚国防工业部长兼国际发展和太平洋事务部长。