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DRC-Rwanda: Can Geneva talks break the cycle of war in eastern Congo?

M23 controls large parts of eastern DRC as Kinshasa and Kigali remain divided over security and sovereignty.

Al Jazeera查看原文 ↗
The Washington peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will face a key test in Geneva on September 16-17, as the two sides return to talks on its implementation [Mandel Ngan/AFP]
The Washington peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will face a key test in Geneva on September 16-17, as the two sides return to talks on its implementation [Mandel Ngan/AFP]

M23 controls large parts of eastern DRC as Kinshasa and Kigali remain divided over security and sovereignty.

The Washington peace deal between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo will face a key test in Geneva on September 16-17, as the two sides return to talks on its implementation [Mandel Ngan/AFP]

Goma, DR Congo – More than a year after the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda signed an agreement intended to end their confrontation, the two countries are back at the negotiating table in Geneva. In eastern Congo, however, the guns have not gone quiet.

The dispute over the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), Rwanda’s military presence in Congolese territory and M23’s control of large parts of the east is now difficult to separate. While the DRC and Rwanda negotiate in Geneva, Kinshasa is pursuing a separate dialogue with the political alliance backing M23.

The talks are separate, but the conflicts they are trying to contain are not.

In Goma, where M23 fighters captured the city in January 2025, the latest round of diplomacy is being judged against what has happened since.

For Josue Akuzwe Walayi, a pro-democracy activist speaking from Kinshasa, another round of talks will mean little unless people begin to see a change in their daily lives.

“People are still waiting for the real benefits of peace that have been trumpeted for over a year. Fields continue to be ravaged in the east, and further displacement is still being reported,” he told Al Jazeera.

Why are Kinshasa and Kigali still divided?

At the heart of the dispute is the FDLR.

The armed group emerged from the aftermath of the 1994 genocide against the Tutsi in Rwanda, when members of the former Rwandan army and fighter groups involved in the killings fled into what is now eastern DRC. Kigali has long regarded the group’s presence near Rwanda’s border as a security threat.

Under the Washington framework, Kinshasa agreed to a process aimed at neutralising the FDLR. The Congolese government says that process, including demobilisation measures, is under way.

But Rwandan President Paul Kagame described the agreement on the FDLR as “insufficient” in remarks at the end of last month.

Patrick Muyaya, the Congolese minister of information and government spokesperson, rejected that assessment, saying Kinshasa is meeting its commitments while accusing Kigali of maintaining “expansionist ambitions” in eastern DRC.

“The work of neutralising the FDLR through demobilisation is being carried out in accordance with the Washington agreements,” Muyaya told Al Jazeera.

The disagreement is not simply over whether the FDLR process is sufficient. It reflects a deeper dispute over security and sovereignty.

Rwanda wants credible assurances that armed groups hostile to it will not operate from Congolese territory. Kinshasa argues that Rwanda’s security concerns cannot justify the presence of foreign forces on Congolese soil.

What Rwanda sees as a necessary security measure, Kinshasa sees as a threat to its sovereignty.

That mistrust is now at the centre of the Geneva talks.

Where does M23 fit into the peace process?

M23 is not a party to the Washington agreement, but it is central to the conflict that the agreement is supposed to help contain.

The group captured Goma in January 2025 and later took Bukavu, the capital of South Kivu, dramatically altering the balance of power in eastern DRC.

M23 operates under the political umbrella of the Congo River Alliance (AFC), which has been involved in a separate Qatar-led dialogue with Kinshasa.

The Geneva process is focused on the confrontation between the DRC and Rwanda, while the Qatar process addresses the Congolese government’s dispute with the AFC-M23 alliance.

Yet on the ground, those conflicts cannot easily be separated.

M23’s territorial control shapes Kinshasa’s calculations, while the Congolese military response affects the security environment along Rwanda’s border. Rwanda’s concerns about armed groups in eastern DRC are also bound up with its position towards M23, while Kinshasa continues to demand the withdrawal of Rwandan forces.

A settlement between Kinshasa and Kigali could reduce regional tensions, but it would not necessarily end the fighting inside eastern DRC.

The talks may be taking place on separate tracks, but what happens on one can affect the others.

What does the diplomacy look like from Goma?

In Goma, where residents have lived through repeated cycles of fighting and displacement, diplomacy is ultimately being measured against what happens outside the conference rooms.

Sadiki Bitha, a resident who experienced the city’s capture in January 2025, is following the Geneva talks and wants the parties and their mediators to ensure that their commitments are honoured.

For Walayi, the continued violence has made it difficult to view another round of diplomacy with confidence.

He accuses Rwanda of supporting violence in eastern DRC and of invoking the FDLR threat to justify its military actions.

“Rwanda prefers to attack us in order to secure its borders within our country, something we cannot accept,” he said.

“The threat posed by the FDLR cannot justify a Rwandan military presence on Congolese territory. Rwanda’s security must not, under any circumstances, be built at the expense of our country’s sovereignty.”

Rwanda rejects accusations that it is pursuing territorial expansion.

The dispute is difficult to resolve because Kinshasa and Kigali disagree over both the threat and how it should be addressed. Neither side appears ready to change its military posture without guarantees from the other.

For people in eastern DRC, however, those arguments are measured in more immediate terms: Displacement, violence and the loss of access to land and livelihoods.

Can the ceasefire hold while the accusations continue?

While the talks continue, fighting persists in North and South Kivu between the DRC army and allied armed groups and M23 fighters.

AFC-M23 has accused Kinshasa of attacking populated areas and violating the ceasefire.

“The AFC-M23 calls on the Congolese people and the international community to bear witness to these serious attacks against the civilian population, which violate the ceasefire,” Lawrence Kanyuka, spokesperson for AFC-M23, told Al Jazeera.

“The AFC-M23 will take all necessary measures to establish a security perimeter to protect these people.”

The allegations could not be independently verified.

On August 27, AFC-M23 also said an aircraft carrying humanitarian aid and essential supplies had been shot down by the DRC army and described it as a civilian aircraft.

When contacted by Al Jazeera, Mak Hazukay, acting spokesperson for the DRC army, declined to comment on the allegation.

The incident also shows how quickly a disputed event can become part of the conflict itself. Without a trusted mechanism for establishing what happened, disputed incidents can quickly become another source of confrontation.

That makes verification central to whether any ceasefire can survive.

What can Geneva realistically achieve?

Herve Amani, a civil society activist, believes the meeting should not be dismissed simply because previous diplomatic efforts have failed.

For him, the priority is to reduce tensions and begin rebuilding trust between the two countries.

“This meeting in Switzerland should be seen as an opportunity rather than yet another diplomatic exercise,” he told Al Jazeera.

“We must not underestimate the difficulties, but we must also recognise that dialogue remains preferable to escalation.”

Geneva will not resolve decades of mistrust between Kinshasa and Kigali. Nor will it settle M23’s position or, on its own, end the wider conflict in eastern DRC.

But it can still matter if it produces commitments that are concrete, implementable and verifiable.

For Rwanda, that means credible progress towards neutralising the FDLR and addressing its security concerns.

For the DRC, it means respect for its territorial sovereignty and progress towards the withdrawal of Rwandan forces.

And for the wider peace effort, progress on one track cannot come at the expense of the other.

For civilians caught between armed groups and national armies, however, the test is simpler: Whether the guns finally fall silent.

Bitha, who lived through the capture of Goma, says he still believes the Geneva meeting can offer a way forward.

“We have high hopes for this meeting. Every 21 September marks the International Day of Peace. We believe this is an opportunity for the people of Congo and Rwanda to speak with one voice and silence the guns by mutual agreement,” he told Al Jazeera.

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