Dual-use exports to Russia await action by Finland’s next leader

MILAN — As Finns get ready to head to the polls, over a dozen Finnish companies have been reported to have evaded sanctions by exporting dual-use goods to Russia, a challenge which experts say will be a key issue to tackle by the next leadership.

The upcoming Finnish presidential election will take place on Jan 28., marking the end of President Sauli Niinistö's time in office after 12 years.

Nicknamed a “ Putin whisperer ” by the media for his enduring contacts with the Kremlin before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Niinistö played an important part in the process leading up to Finland gaining its official NATO membership in April 2023.

Experts note that running candidates appear to have put up a more united front than in previous elections on crucial topics, including maintaining aid to Ukraine .

“As Finland shares the longest border of any NATO member with Russia, it has been necessary to at least have a composed relationship [amongst candidates] to some degree, while being firm on where Finland stands as an EU and NATO member,” Robert Eklund, chair of the board at the Finnish security policy think tank Elisabeth Rehn – Bank of Ideas, said.

“All candidates running have been unwavering in their support for Ukraine, and that is one of the key things they have in common – a resolve to support Ukraine for as long as it needs it,” he added.

Alexander Stubb, a former Finnish prime minister and front runner in the upcoming election, pledged unconditional support to Kyiv during an interview with Reuters earlier this month, calling on Moscow to end its assault.

Most contenders have publicly expressed no willingness to engage with Moscow until its leadership ends the full-scale war it is waging against Kyiv. The Finnish presidential election will prove all the more important as it comes ahead of the Russian one, scheduled for mid-March.

Two weeks prior to the elections, public broadcasting media company Yle, reported that over 20 Finnish companies with a Russian background had been found to have exported various dual-use items to Moscow.

According to customs data obtained by Yle, one of the involved firms operating in southeast Finland would have sent sensors, diesel engines, fuel pumps and transmission equipment to Russia.

Analysts say that while this incident is relatively unsurprising, as other similar ones have previously been reported, the number of companies involved this time around is unusual.

“It is not surprising there are companies which ship these kinds of products to Russia, as in September for instance, there was also news that the CEO of two Finnish companies, Siberica and Luminor, was detained on charges of having violated Russian sanctions,” Kari Paasonen, fellow at the Finnish peace and security think-tank SaferGlobe, said.

“However, the number of companies the report reveals is remarkably high. Over the years, there have also been other cases of illegal shipments of arms through Finland reported,” Paasonen added.

In this high-profile case, the two listed companies are currently under investigation by the Finnish customs authorities as they are believed to have exported around 3,500 drones as well as other electronic components to Russia.

Firms circumventing Russian sanctions is a thorny problem that other European countries have also struggled with, and one that has proven increasingly difficult to manage.

“In many cases, these goods are not sold directly from the manufacturer to the user, but rather they are traded through local dealer networks, which makes it difficult for Western companies wanting to abide to the sanctions regime, to control where their products end up,” Robin Häggblom, independent Finnish defense analyst, said.

While the Yle report highlights an important issue, experts said that it is unlikely to influence the election directly, as the consensus about adhering to Russian export bans is widely shared.

“There will unlikely be any fallout. That said, preventing sanctions evasion in my view will be a top priority for [upcoming] Finnish foreign policy,” Matti Pesu, leading researcher at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, said.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——芬兰即将举行大选之际，有报道称十几家​​芬兰公司通过向俄罗斯出口两用物项来规避制裁。专家表示，这将是下一届领导层需要解决的关键问题。

芬兰即将举行的总统选举将于1月28日举行，这将标志着绍利·尼尼斯托总统12年的任期结束。

尼尼斯托因在 2022 年 2 月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰之前与克里姆林宫保持着密切联系而被媒体戏称为“普京的耳语者”。在芬兰于 2023 年 4 月正式加入北约的过程中，尼尼斯托发挥了重要作用。

专家指出，与以往的选举相比，本次选举的候选人在关键议题上，包括维持对乌克兰的援助，似乎展现出了更加团结一致的姿态。

芬兰安全政策智库伊丽莎白·雷恩——思想银行董事会主席罗伯特·埃克伦德表示：“由于芬兰与俄罗斯的边界线是北约成员国中最长的，因此至少有必要在某种程度上与候选国保持一种克制的关系，同时坚定芬兰作为欧盟和北约成员国的立场。”

“所有参选候选人都坚定不移地支持乌克兰，这是他们的共同点之一——决心在乌克兰需要的时候一直支持它，”他补充道。

芬兰前总理、即将举行的总统选举领跑者亚历山大·斯图布本月早些时候在接受路透社采访时承诺无条件支持基辅，并呼吁莫斯科停止攻击。

大多数候选人都公开表示，除非莫斯科领导层结束其对基辅发动的全面战争，否则他们不愿与莫斯科接触。芬兰总统选举将在定于3月中旬举行的俄罗斯总统选举之前举行，因此显得尤为重要。

在选举前两周，芬兰公共广播媒体公司 Yle 报道称，有 20 多家与俄罗斯有关联的芬兰公司被发现向莫斯科出口了各种两用物品。

根据芬兰广播公司 (Yle) 获取的海关数据显示，涉事公司之一在芬兰东南部运营，曾向俄罗斯运送传感器、柴油发动机、燃油泵和传动设备。

分析人士表示，虽然此次事件相对来说并不令人意外，因为之前也曾报道过类似事件，但这次涉及的公司数量却很不寻常。

芬兰和平与安全智库 SaferGlobe 的研究员卡里·帕索宁表示：“一些公司向俄罗斯运送这类产品并不奇怪，例如，9 月份就有消息称，两家芬兰公司 Siberica 和 Luminor 的首席执行官因涉嫌违反俄罗斯制裁而被拘留。”

“然而，报告揭露的公司数量之多令人震惊。多年来，芬兰也曾多次被报道非法运输武器的案例，”帕索宁补充道。

在这起备受瞩目的案件中，这两家上市公司目前正受到芬兰海关当局的调查，因为据信它们向俄罗斯出口了约 3500 架无人机以及其他电子元件。

企业规避俄罗斯制裁是一个棘手的问题，其他欧洲国家也一直在努力应对，而且这个问题越来越难以解决。

“在很多情况下，这些商品并非由制造商直接销售给用户，而是通过当地经销商网络进行交易，这使得想要遵守制裁制度的西方公司难以控制其产品的最终去向，”芬兰独立国防分析师罗宾·哈格布洛姆表示。

尽管芬兰广播公司 (Yle) 的报道强调了一个重要问题，但专家表示，这不太可能直接影响选举，因为对于遵守俄罗斯出口禁令的共识已得到广泛认可。

“不太可能产生任何不良后果。即便如此，我认为防止规避制裁仍将是芬兰（未来）外交政策的首要任务，”芬兰国际事务研究所首席研究员马蒂·佩苏表示。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。