US oil deal promises a flood of investment in Venezuela. When will its people feel the benefits?

Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters

Lee este artículo en español

The enormous investments that the US and Venezuela have promised from their new oil production deal have brought cautious optimism that Venezuelans face a new period of prosperity after more than a decade of economic and social turmoil.

As the country with the world’s largest proven reserves of crude oil, some analysts expect Venezuela to reap some benefits from foreign investment even before it begins to increase production.

But its biggest economic gains will take time to unfold, analysts warn, and it remains unclear exactly when the general population will feel the effects.

Some residents have expressed fears the US will extract the greatest profits and leave little left over for them.

Moreover, the Venezuelan opposition has questioned the current government’s ability to manage these new investments, citing a lack of transparency and civil liberties.

Still, experts believe there’s reason to be cautiously optimistic, saying the project should not be analyzed solely on oil revenue, but also on the boost it could give other sectors of Venezuela’s battered economy.

The US government signed the deal with Venezuelan company North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) to develop 17 oil fields with an estimated potential of about 65 billion barrels of crude. US President Donald Trump called the agreement “historic,” saying it would allow the US to purchase 20% of the production at cost.

Separately, several international firms have signed additional agreements for new energy projects in the country.

Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado on Thursday backed Washington’s role in developing the country’s oil reserves but said the US needed a more competent partner than the current Venezuelan government, which she called an “illegitimate regime.”

“All of this requires sustained work under the non-negotiable principles of absolute transparency, legality and efficiency. And this is only possible with the legitimacy and stability offered by a serious and democratic government,” she said.

Experts have also expressed doubts over the limited information the government has released, including some contradictions between Washington and Caracas regarding the duration of the concessions, as well as over officials’ optimism about achieving such investment figures.

One of the challenges posed by such an agreement is that the inflow of capital could distort Venezuela’s economy if not handled properly, according to economist Manuel Sutherland, director of the Center for Workers’ Research and Education.

He said Venezuela would need “new economic institutions and new rules that can change the nation’s monetary, political and exchange-rate structure” to avoid small devaluations and issuing unbacked money. “Otherwise, no matter how much money comes in, it will be diluted.”

For the investments to materialize, Venezuela will also need to restore or build entirely new energy infrastructure, experts say. The deal involves oil fields that haven’t been developed.

“It requires electrical infrastructure that does not exist in the country today and needs resources, investment, technology and, especially, an entire support workforce in surrounding clusters, which undoubtedly has a huge multiplier effect on the economy,” said Venezuelan economist Luis Vicente León, president of the consulting firm Datanálisis.

He stressed that the new oil fields need five or 10 years to be developed.

Leonardo Fernandez Viloria/Reuters/File

The program will also require “a rescue of the electrical system” since there is currently a deficit that forces some regions to ration electricity, according to Sutherland. He estimated transforming the electrical system could take more than $15 billion.

Sutherland stressed that the investment amounts that officials have mentioned (up to $100 billion) would not arrive in the short term.

“They will be spread out. It’s not as though 10 companies are going to come in and put $100 billion into the country tomorrow; that doesn’t happen. The investments will be $10 million, $20 million, $100 million, and they will gradually increase,” he explained.

Still, he emphasized that even an annual investment of $5 billion would ease the country’s liquidity problem.

“In such a small economy, when you have a project of that magnitude ahead of you, its impact on the country is very large and very rapid, because it changes expectations and improves the investment climate,” León noted.

Venezuelan residents have responded to the deal with a mix of hope and concern.

“Well, on the one hand, one feels and thinks that one of the largest oil reserves has been handed over,” Erwin Ayala, an oil company worker, told the Associated Press.

“But if it’s for the good of the country and for future generations, then yes, we agree with that, because what good is having so much oil … if there’s no machinery, no technology, to extract it?”

Some say the deal will amount to nothing if the money isn’t used to fix longstanding problems like unreliable public services.

Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images

“I don’t see any benefit for the people, because they’re (US) going to take the oil, and then what? We lose power for six or seven hours, so where’s the benefit for the people?” juice shop owner Gustavo Lossada told the Reuters news agency.

In the past two years, Venezuela has recorded a slow but steady increase in oil production, which recently exceeded 1 million barrels of crude oil per day for the first time since early 2019.

León said the increase was already having an impact and would be even greater in the final quarter. However, he said this path is not necessarily sustainable without new investment .

Even if investments are confirmed, it’s unclear when the population would begin to feel that things are improving.

For León, “that is a more complex story,” since GDP growth does not necessarily translate into tangible benefits.

“Now there is much more money, but what happens? If you ask the Venezuelan population, they will still tell you that they do not feel it, and that creates an unmet expectation that is negative in terms of national perception,” he said.

Acting Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez said she aims to raise production to 1.5 million barrels per day, which León believes would improve some economic indicators, though he warned that if production stalls there, “social demands will remain.”

“Do you have more money? Yes. But the power goes out for five or six hours in Barquisimeto, San Cristóbal, Mérida or Maracaibo. In other words, the electricity or water infrastructure problem has not been resolved,” he said.

He estimated that it would take at least a year for the population to feel that services are being managed better.

“Whether (the agreement) is sufficient, whether it is fair, and how it compares with the rest of the world is another story,” he added. “But I have no doubt whatsoever that there will be growth.”

CNN’s Michael Rios contributed to this report.

莱昂纳多·费尔南德斯·维洛里亚/路透社

这是西班牙语文章

美国和委内瑞拉承诺通过新的石油生产协议进行巨额投资，这让人们谨慎乐观地认为，在经历了十多年的经济和社会动荡之后，委内瑞拉人民将迎来新的繁荣时期。

作为世界上已探明原油储量最大的国家，一些分析人士预计，委内瑞拉甚至在开始增产之前，就能从外国投资中获得一些好处。

但分析人士警告说，其最大的经济效益需要时间才能显现，目前还不清楚普通民众何时才能感受到其影响。

一些居民担心美国会攫取最大利润，而留给他们的却寥寥无几。

此外，委内瑞拉反对派质疑现任政府管理这些新投资的能力，理由是缺乏透明度和公民自由。

不过，专家们认为有理由保持谨慎乐观，他们表示，不应仅仅从石油收入来分析该项目，还应考虑该项目可能给委内瑞拉遭受重创的经济其他部门带来的提振作用。

美国政府与委内瑞拉公司北美蓝色能源合作伙伴（NABEP）签署协议，共同开发17个油田，预计原油储量约为650亿桶。美国总统唐纳德·特朗普称该协议“具有历史意义”，并表示这将使美国能够以成本价购买其中20%的产量。

此外，多家国际公司已签署更多协议，将在该国开展新能源项目。

委内瑞拉反对派领导人玛丽亚·科里纳·马查多周四表示支持华盛顿在开发该国石油储备方面发挥作用，但她表示，美国需要一个比委内瑞拉现任政府更有能力的合作伙伴，她称委内瑞拉现任政府是一个“非法政权”。

“所有这一切都需要在绝对透明、合法和高效的不可妥协的原则下持续努力。而这只有在严肃认真的民主政府所提供的合法性和稳定性下才有可能实现，”她说道。

专家们也对政府公布的信息有限表示怀疑，包括华盛顿和加拉加斯之间在特许权期限问题上的一些矛盾，以及官员们对实现此类投资目标的乐观态度。

经济学家、工人研究与教育中心主任曼努埃尔·萨瑟兰表示，此类协议带来的挑战之一是，如果处理不当，资本流入可能会扭曲委内瑞拉的经济。

他表示，委内瑞拉需要“新的经济机构和新的规则，以改变该国的货币、政治和汇率结构”，从而避免小幅贬值和发行无担保货币。“否则，无论有多少资金流入，都会被稀释。”

专家表示，为了使这些投资真正落地，委内瑞拉还需要修复或新建能源基础设施。该协议涉及尚未开发的油田。

“这需要目前该国尚不存在的电力基础设施，需要资源、投资、技术，尤其是周边地区的一整支支持队伍，这无疑会对经济产生巨大的乘数效应，”咨询公司Datanálisis的总裁、委内瑞拉经济学家路易斯·维森特·莱昂表示。

他强调，新的油田需要五到十年的时间才能开发。

莱昂纳多·费尔南德斯·维洛里亚/路透社/文件

萨瑟兰表示，该计划还需要“拯救电力系统”，因为目前电力供应不足，迫使一些地区实行限电。他估计，改造电力系统可能需要超过150亿美元。

萨瑟兰强调，官员们提到的投资金额（高达 1000 亿美元）不会在短期内到位。

“这些投资会分散进行。并不是说明天就会有10家公司涌入这个国家，一次性投资1000亿美元；这种情况不会发生。投资额会是1000万美元、2000万美元、1亿美元，然后逐步增加，”他解释道。

不过，他强调，即使每年投资 50 亿美元，也能缓解该国的流动性问题。

莱昂指出：“在这样一个经济体量如此小的国家，当面临如此规模的项目时，它对国家的影响非常巨大且迅速，因为它会改变人们的预期，改善投资环境。”

委内瑞拉居民对这项协议的反应既充满希望又令人担忧。

“一方面，人们会觉得，最大的石油储备之一已经被移交给了别人，”石油公司员工埃尔文·阿亚拉告诉美联社。

“但如果这是为了国家和子孙后代的利益，那么是的，我们同意，因为如果没有机器、没有技术来开采石油，拥有这么多石油又有什么用呢？”

有人说，如果这笔钱不用来解决公共服务不可靠等长期存在的问题，那么这项协议将毫无意义。

Federico Parra/AFP/Getty Images

“我看不出这对人民有任何好处，因为他们（美国）会拿走石油，然后呢？我们会停电六七个小时，所以这对人民有什么好处呢？”果汁店老板古斯塔沃·洛萨达告诉路透社。

过去两年，委内瑞拉的石油产量缓慢但稳定地增长，最近原油日产量首次超过 100 万桶，这是自 2019 年初以来的最高纪录。

莱昂表示，此次增长已经产生影响，并且在最后一个季度影响会更大。但他同时指出，如果没有新的投资，这条道路未必能够持续。

即使投资得到确认，民众何时才能开始感受到情况有所改善，目前尚不清楚。

莱昂认为，“情况就复杂得多”，因为GDP增长并不一定能转化为实际利益。

“现在钱多了很多，但是会发生什么呢？如果你问委内瑞拉民众，他们仍然会告诉你他们没有感受到这一点，这会造成一种未实现的期望，对国家形象产生负面影响，”他说。

委内瑞拉代理总统德尔西·罗德里格斯表示，她的目标是将日产量提高到 150 万桶，莱昂认为这将改善一些经济指标，但他警告说，如果产量停滞不前，“社会需求依然存在”。

“你们的钱多了？是的。但是巴基西梅托、圣克里斯托瓦尔、梅里达或马拉开波等地经常停电五六个小时。换句话说，电力或供水基础设施问题还没有得到解决，”他说。

他估计，民众至少需要一年时间才能感受到公共服务的管理有所改善。

他补充说：“（这项协议）是否充分、是否公平，以及它与世界其他地区的协议相比如何，则是另一回事。但我毫不怀疑，经济增长一定会到来。”

CNN的迈克尔·里奥斯对本报道亦有贡献。