Iran war has cost the US $38bn: How will it impact US economy, politics?

High energy costs at the pump and strategic setback for US in the Iran war will likely cost Trump in the midterm elections.

US Air Force B-1B Lancer bombers at a British base for defensive bombing missions against Iranian military targets [File: Matthew Horwood/Getty Images]

The United States war on Iran has cost the country $38bn so far, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said this week, adding that an estimated $3bn will be added every month if the conflict continues, placing strain on the country’s finances and economy.

The report, which was released on Tuesday, revealed that the protracted war is straining US munitions stockpiles and fuelling inflation as the Strait of Hormuz, a global oil export chokepoint, remains under Iranian blockade. The shortage of munitions poses a major security risk in the event of a new conflict.

The findings of the inquiry will likely add fuel to the wave of criticism about the six-month-old war , which the US launched alongside Israel on February 28, and which US President Donald Trump claimed would only last a few weeks.

The conflict has rattled the global energy market and contributed to rising prices as US voters express concern about the cost of living in the run-up to the November US midterm elections .

The CBO’s report also comes on Monday’s report from the Pentagon’s official watchdog about the losses the US has incurred throughout the war – including the first admission by the body of low weapons stockpiles.

Here’s what we know about how the war continues to affect domestic US politics, as well as its economy.

What did the congressional report find?

The $38bn cost cited is close to the $37.5bn shared by Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth at a Senate hearing on July 21.

It does not include the costs ‌of recent ⁠US strikes on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz or of Iranian attacks on US military installations in the region. Nor does it count borrowing expenses, which could add tens of billions of dollars to the total cost.

Dwindling weapons stockpiles have made up the bulk of the costs – $25bn of weapons have been used up so far – with the budget office estimating it could take five years to restore expended US stockpiles.

The conflict is likely to fuel inflation, which is expected to rise by 0.5 percentage points in the first three months of 2027, said the Congress’s nonpartisan bookkeeper.

The rising cost of the war will also act as a drag on US fiscal health as the country’s national ⁠debt topped a record $40 trillion last month.

The top Democrat on the US House of Representatives Budget Committee, Brendan Boyle of Pennsylvania, requested the inquiry into the US’s war expenditure. The Department of Defense did not cooperate with the inquiry, he said.

“Donald Trump’s disastrous war in Iran has already taken the lives of brave American servicemembers and left others wounded,” Boyle said in a statement.

How does this compare to the Pentagon watchdog’s report?

On Monday, a separate report by the Pentagon’s Office of the Inspector General also outlined US losses in the war – the first such public acknowledgement by US authorities.

That report found that the war had cost $33bn between February 28 and June 30 – with an estimated $22bn spent on expended munitions.

In a turnabout from the Trump administration’s repeated assurances that US stockpiles of weapons remain healthy, the Pentagon admitted it is indeed running out of munitions – particularly defensive systems – and is facing “bottlenecks” in supply chains.

US officials have continued to publicly reject US media reports about the shortage of munitions and missile interceptors as the war, which Trump initially said would last “four to five weeks”, has entered its seventh month. Trump has claimed that Washington has “virtually unlimited” ammunition.

The White House and Pentagon disputed the findings of the CBO on munitions shortages.

Monday’s Pentagon report also found that up to June 30, the war had caused $184m in damage to US facilities in the Gulf and killed at least 18 US military personnel.

Iranian attacks, the report said, destroyed or damaged dozens of aircraft , including at least 30 MQ-9 Reaper drones.

What has been the political opposition to the US war on Iran?

Opposition to Trump’s war on Iran is mounting, with several Republicans joining the Democrats on Tuesday to vote for a third time to end the conflict.

Seven House Republicans backed the resolution, including three voting in favour for the first time, joining all House Democrats who are opposed to the war. It will likely fail to pass in the Senate, where the Republicans hold a majority.

Even if it were to clear the Senate, Trump can still veto it.

Congress has the authority to declare war, but the president, as the commander in chief, can authorise military actions. Trump started the war before getting approval from Congress.

Past US presidents from both parties have done the same – from Democrat President Harry Truman in 1950 when sending troops to the Korean War, to Republican President Richard Nixon before the US invaded Cambodia.

Meanwhile, public approval for the war is at an all-time low. Just 31 percent of Americans support US military action against Iran, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from late August, down from 37 percent in March.

How has the war impacted the US economy?

The most salient effect of the war for everyday Americans throughout the conflict has been soaring fuel prices. On Tuesday, the average price of a gallon of diesel in the US hit a new record high of $6.27 ($1.66 per litre), according to the American Automobile Association.

US consumers paid an additional $100bn for petrol and diesel in the first six months of the war, according to a tracker from Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs.

Across the country, the added cost amounts to roughly $763 per household, based on an estimated 131 million households nationwide.

Higher fuel costs are also driving up the cost of food – with the shortages of oil and gas affecting nearly every stage of the food-supply chain.

In line with his dismissive statements on dwindling weapons stockpiles, Trump has also made flippant remarks about fuel prices, telling the Reuters news agency earlier this month: “If they rise, they rise.”

Democrats have made the cost of living a key issue in the approaching midterm elections in November, which appears to have resonated with voters. The party registered wins for a number of progressives this year, from Abdul El-Sayed’s victory in Michigan’s Democratic Senate primary to Peggy Flanagan’s Minnesota win , also in the Democratic Senate primary.

On Tuesday, several Democratic lawmakers pressed US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on the state of the economy, inflation and the rising cost of living – tying these issues to the Iran war and the rise in global oil prices. Bessent blamed inflation on the previous Biden administration and claimed Americans are better off under Trump.

The war is also affecting US fiscal health. National ⁠debt surpassed $40 trillion in August, and the 30-year treasury yield jumped to 5.32 percent that same month, the highest cost of borrowing for the US government in nearly two decades, according to the Center for American Progress.

How will the cost of the war impact the US midterm elections?

Opinion polls suggest that the Republican Party could struggle to hold onto control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate when voters go to the polls on November 3 for the midterm elections.

The rise in oil and gas prices due to the war has also become a major issue for Republicans in the lead-up to the elections.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll from Monday, Democrats were leading over Republicans by 44 percent to 37 percent in congressional vote preference.

On Sunday, Trump, who has promised to pay every adult $5,000 if the Republicans hold onto their majorities in both houses of Congress, said the war would end after the elections. He also shrugged off concerns that the Iran war will hamper his standing in the upcoming vote.

“I don’t believe in the word ‘regret.’ You can always question yourself a little bit,” Trump said in an interview with Fox News last week.

高昂的能源价格和美国在伊朗战争中遭受的战略挫败可能会让特朗普在中期选举中付出代价。

美国空军B-1B“枪骑兵”轰炸机停放在英国基地，准备对伊朗军事目标执行防御性轰炸任务。[图片：Matthew Horwood/Getty Images]

美国国会预算办公室（CBO）本周表示，美国对伊朗的战争迄今已使该国损失了380亿美元，并补充说，如果冲突继续下去，预计每月还将增加30亿美元，这将给该国的财政和经济带来压力。

这份周二发布的报告显示，旷日持久的战争正在耗尽美国的弹药储备，并加剧通货膨胀，因为作为全球石油出口咽喉要道的霍尔木兹海峡仍处于伊朗的封锁之下。弹药短缺一旦引发新的冲突，将构成重大的安全隐患。

调查结果可能会加剧人们对这场持续六个月的战争的批评浪潮。这场战争由美国和以色列于 2 月 28 日发动，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普曾声称这场战争只会持续几周。

这场冲突震动了全球能源市场，并导致价格上涨，因为美国选民在11月美国中期选举前夕对生活成本表示担忧。

国会预算办公室的这份报告也与五角大楼官方监督机构周一发布的报告相呼应，该报告指出美国在整个战争中遭受了损失——其中包括该机构首次承认武器库存不足。

以下是我们了解到的这场战争如何继续影响美国国内政治和经济的情况。

国会报告发现了什么？

所引用的 380 亿美元成本与国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯在 7 月 21 日参议院听证会上透露的 375 亿美元接近。

它不包括近期美国在霍尔木兹海峡对船只发动的袭击，也不包括伊朗对该地区美国军事设施的袭击所造成的损失。此外，它还不包括借贷费用，而这些费用可能会使总成本增加数百亿美元。

武器库存的减少占了大部分成本——迄今为止已消耗了价值 250 亿美元的武器——预算办公室估计，恢复美国已消耗的库存可能需要五年时间。

国会无党派会计表示，这场冲突可能会加剧通货膨胀，预计2027年前三个月通货膨胀率将上升0.5个百分点。

战争成本的不断攀升也将拖累美国的财政健康，因为该国的国债上个月突破了创纪录的 40 万亿美元。

美国众议院预算委员会首席民主党议员、宾夕法尼亚州众议员布伦丹·博伊尔要求对美国的战争开支进行调查。他说，国防部没有配合调查。

博伊尔在一份声明中说：“唐纳德·特朗普在伊朗发动的灾难性战争已经夺去了勇敢的美国军人的生命，并造成其他人受伤。”

这与五角大楼监察机构的报告有何异同？

周一，五角大楼监察长办公室的一份独立报告也概述了美国在战争中的损失——这是美国当局首次公开承认此类损失。

该报告发现，从 2 月 28 日到 6 月 30 日，这场战争耗资 330 亿美元，其中估计有 220 亿美元用于处理已消耗的弹药。

与特朗普政府一再保证美国武器储备仍然充足的说法截然相反，五角大楼承认其弹药——特别是防御系统——确实正在耗尽，并且面临供应链的“瓶颈”。

随着这场特朗普最初声称将持续“四到五周”的战争进入第七个月，美国官员继续公开否认美国媒体关于弹药和导弹拦截器短缺的报道。特朗普声称华盛顿拥有“几乎无限”的弹药。

白宫和五角大楼对国会预算办公室关于弹药短缺的调查结果提出异议。

周一五角大楼的报告还发现，截至 6 月 30 日，这场战争已对美国在海湾地区的设施造成 1.84 亿美元的损失，并导致至少 18 名美国军人丧生。

报告称，伊朗的袭击摧毁或损坏了数十架飞机，其中包括至少 30 架 MQ-9“死神”无人机。

美国对伊朗发动战争的政治反对力量有哪些？

反对特朗普对伊朗发动战争的呼声日益高涨，周二，几位共和党人与民主党人一起第三次投票支持结束这场冲突。

七名共和党众议员支持这项决议，其中三人是首次投赞成票，他们与所有反对战争的民主党众议员一起，共同支持这项决议。该决议很可能无法在共和党占多数的参议院获得通过。

即使该法案在参议院获得通过，特朗普仍然可以否决它。

国会有权宣战，但总统作为三军统帅，可以授权采取军事行动。特朗普在未获得国会批准的情况下发动了战争。

美国历史上两党总统都曾这样做过——从 1950 年民主党总统哈里·杜鲁门向朝鲜战争派遣军队，到美国入侵柬埔寨之前共和党总统理查德·尼克松。

与此同时，公众对这场战争的支持率跌至历史新低。路透社/益普索8月下旬的民调显示，仅有31%的美国人支持美国对伊朗采取军事行动，低于3月份的37%。

战争对美国经济产生了哪些影响？

战争期间，对普通美国民众而言，最显著的影响莫过于燃油价格飙升。据美国汽车协会统计，周二，美国柴油平均价格创下历史新高，达到每加仑6.27美元（每升1.66美元）。

根据布朗大学沃森国际与公共事务研究所的追踪数据显示，战争爆发后的前六个月，美国消费者在汽油和柴油上的支出增加了 1000 亿美元。

根据全国约 1.31 亿户家庭的估计，全国范围内，每户家庭的额外成本约为 763 美元。

燃料成本上涨也推高了食品价格——石油和天然气短缺几乎影响了食品供应链的每一个环节。

与他对武器库存减少的轻蔑言论相一致，特朗普也对燃料价格发表了轻率的评论，他本月早些时候告诉路透社：“如果它们上涨，那就上涨吧。”

民主党已将生活成本问题作为即将到来的11月中期选举的关键议题，这似乎引起了选民的共鸣。今年，该党有多位进步派人士获胜，例如阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德在密歇根州民主党参议员初选中胜出，佩吉·弗拉纳根也在明尼苏达州民主党参议员初选中获胜。

周二，几位民主党议员就经济状况、通货膨胀和生活成本上涨等问题向美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特施压，并将这些问题与伊朗战争和全球油价上涨联系起来。贝森特将通货膨胀归咎于前任拜登政府，并声称美国人在特朗普执政期间生活得更好。

战争也影响了美国的财政健康。据美国进步中心的数据显示，8月份美国国债超过40万亿美元，30年期国债收益率当月飙升至5.32%，这是近20年来美国政府的最高借贷成本。

战争的成本将如何影响美国中期选举？

民意调查显示，在11月3日举行的中期选举中，共和党可能难以保住对众议院和参议院的控制权。

战争导致石油和天然气价格上涨，这也成为共和党人在选举前夕面临的一个主要问题。

根据路透社/益普索周一公布的民调显示，在国会选举投票意向方面，民主党人以 44% 对 37% 领先共和党人。

周日，特朗普承诺，如果共和党保住国会两院的多数席位，他将向每位成年人发放5000美元。他还表示，伊朗战争将在大选后结束。此外，他还对伊朗战争会影响其在即将到来的选举中的支持率这一担忧不以为然。

“我不相信‘后悔’这个词。你总可以稍微反思一下自己，”特朗普上周在接受福克斯新闻采访时说道。