Trump’s losing streak dents his invincibility myth

Kylie Cooper/Reuters

Donald Trump is boiling with frustration after a spate of political blows weakened his presumption of dominance in Washington and abroad.

It’s been one of those tough weeks that presidents sometimes suffer, when multiple priorities seem to unravel all at once.

The Supreme Court’s decision to block Trump’s plan to restrict mail-in voting ahead of the midterms left him fuming at his first-term appointees on the top bench, whom he slammed as “a shell” of their former selves.

A lower court again frustrated Trump’s bid to renovate the Kennedy Center. The drama over the arts citadel, which Trump now plans to shut down , is most damaging because it’s an unflattering character reveal. Everyone knows this is really about him trying to muscle his own name onto the living memorial to an assassinated president.

The president’s authority took another dent Tuesday when the GOP-led House voted to require him to end his war with Iran , as three more Republicans swelled the list of party heretics to seven.

Trump’s big midterm offer of a $5,000 check for every American if Republicans win in November, meanwhile, looks dead in the water after Capitol Hill GOPers distanced themselves from the idea. And Speaker Mike Johnson, a close Trump ally, chose to send House lawmakers home Wednesday — a day earlier than planned — to avoid a potentially embarrassing vote on whether to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Wednesday brought another implied rebuke to Trump when the Federal Reserve, under Trump’s handpicked new Chair Kevin Warsh, raised interest rates for the first time since July 2023 in a sign of central bank independence. Trump has spent months demanding large cuts to the cost of borrowing, ignoring the specter of rising inflation that his trade and war policies exacerbated.

Trump’s vision of unchallenged US power abroad is also being undermined.

In a stunning development, Canada, a third of the mighty North American trading bloc, was just offered associate membership in another group, the European Union, as it seeks new friends following Trump’s sovereignty threats and tariff attacks.

And Trump’s waffling over when the Iran war will end can’t cover up a worsening situation. Tehran-backed Houthi rebels just seized land in and around the Bab al-Mandeb Strait , potentially giving them leverage over another critical oil exporting route while the US is still struggling to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The president’s cascade of misfortunes this week collectively point to more than the typical political dings for second-term presidents.

Each arises from a big, risky Trump bet and an apparently over-optimistic assessment of his own personal and political power.

He bitterly rebuked Justices Brett Kavanaugh, Neil Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett for appearing to be part of a majority to block his bid to sow chaos over postal ballots ahead of the midterms. “These are not the people I interviewed to serve on the United States Supreme Court,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. His critique is revealing because it shows a belief that his appointees would adjudicate the law in a way that repaid a personal debt to the president.

Democrats gripe about a Supreme Court that has often shared Trump’s vision of expansive executive authority. But at times, these three justices have also reined in Trump’s power. These are turbulent times, but it shouldn’t be surprising when Supreme Court justices uphold the Constitution, which gives control of elections to the states. Their lifetime tenure also means they’ll be forging their own legacies long after Trump leaves office.

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Trump’s reaction to the Fed’s rate hike will be closely watched. The president picked Warsh with high expectations after spending months hounding his predecessor Jerome Powell for multiple rate cuts.

Trump has perhaps done more than any other president to erode the constraints on executive power imposed by the Constitution and custom. He has found particular success, for instance, in his evisceration of parts of the federal government by acting with shock and awe to outpace initial court action.

But the Kennedy Center farce, the mail-in voting decision and Fed independence are important indicators. They show that even faced with a relentless president, some institutions of government are standing firm.

Trump has dominated the Republican Party for a decade. But his inability to maintain unanimous support over a constitutionally questionable war; his failure to browbeat the Senate into passing his voter registration bill; and lawmakers’ coolness to his $5,000 giveaway idea suggest cracks are emerging in his power base.

Canada’s overtures to the EU represent an extraordinary geopolitical shock. The second Trump administration made US hegemony over the Western Hemisphere an article of faith. But the country’s closet geographical and cultural ally is seeking a highly symbolic break with its “America First” neighbor, a sign it now feels more politically and morally aligned with Europe.

It’s unclear what associate membership of the EU means and how it would alter Canada’s huge trade relationship with the US if the current tariff war ends. But it’s clear Trump’s “51st state” threats led Ottawa to conclude it cannot depend on Washington even when Trump leaves office. A weaker North American trade relationship and fractured alliance system will ultimately weaken Washington’s ability to project unified Western power.

Equally, the Iran conflict is chipping away at the administration’s conceit that the US is so powerful it can do exactly as it wants.

The president can’t say whether the war will end before or after the midterms. Iran’s armed forces might be crushed and its economy in free fall. But Tehran’s revolutionary regime is as entrenched as ever nearly eight months into a war in which it defied a superpower.

Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

So how will Trump’s week of big reversals alter his political position, play into the midterms and set the tone for whatever new balance of Washington power emerges from election season?

One obvious takeaway is that political gravity may be reasserting itself. The Iran war defections show that Trump is not immune from the ritual of endangered lawmakers seeking distance from an unpopular president.

“Where we agree with the president, we’re going to fight with him. Where we disagree with the president on things like beef, on tariffs, on the current state of how operations are working in Iran, we’re going to call him out and have a conversation on that,” Iowa Rep. Zach Nunn, who voted for an end to the war Tuesday, told CNN’s Manu Raju.

This is a bad midterm omen. Nunn is obviously reacting to voter sentiment in a solid Trump state. His plight suggests the Republican foundation is weakening.

Trump’s susceptibility to ordinary political forces is significant because the vibe last year was that he was all but unstoppable; that he had obliterated every guardrail and could compel elite law firms, corporate executives and university presidents to genuflect.

This is not to say that Trump is an exhausted force. He’s long defied pundits predicting his political demise. He engineered the greatest comeback in American history less than two years ago.

And if Democrats win back the House or the Senate in the midterms, Trump could paradoxically find new political definition. Any Democratic overreach during a promised blizzard of probes into the White House or an ideological dive left would offer an opening to a political street fighter who is most effective with a foil.

But a week in which power has tangibly ebbed from a president with an approval rating in the 30s can’t be ignored.

Once an aura of invincibility fades, political authority can erode quickly.

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一系列政治打击削弱了唐纳德·特朗普在华盛顿和海外的统治地位，令他怒火中烧。

对于总统来说，这是他们有时会遇到的那种艰难的一周，多项优先事项似乎同时崩溃。

最高法院阻止了特朗普在中期选举前限制邮寄投票的计划，这让他对最高法院第一任期任命的法官们大为恼火，他抨击他们“早已失去了往日的风采”。

下级法院再次驳回了特朗普翻新肯尼迪中心的请求。围绕这座艺术殿堂的纷争——特朗普现在计划将其关闭——最具破坏性，因为它暴露了他丑陋的本性。人人都知道，这实际上是他试图将自己的名字强加到这座纪念一位遇刺总统的活生生的纪念碑上。

周二，由共和党控制的众议院投票要求总统结束与伊朗的战争，总统的权威再次受到打击，又有三名共和党人让该党的异端分子名单增加到七人。

与此同时，特朗普提出的中期选举豪言——如果共和党在11月赢得大选，就向每位美国人发放5000美元支票——似乎已经胎死腹中，因为国会山的共和党人已经与这一想法划清界限。此外，作为特朗普的亲密盟友，众议院议长迈克·约翰逊选择让众议员们在周三提前一天回家，以避免就弹劾国防部长皮特·赫格塞斯进行可能令人尴尬的投票。

周三，美联储在特朗普钦点的凯文·沃什的领导下，自2023年7月以来首次加息，这无疑是对特朗普的又一次隐晦否定，也展现了央行的独立性。几个月来，特朗普一直要求大幅削减借贷成本，却无视其贸易和战争政策加剧的通胀阴影。

特朗普关于美国在海外拥有绝对权力的愿景也正在受到破坏。

令人震惊的是，作为强大的北美贸易集团三分之一的成员国，加拿大刚刚被邀请加入另一个组织——欧盟，成为其准会员。此前，特朗普对加拿大的主权发出威胁，并对其征收关税，加拿大正寻求新的盟友。

特朗普在伊朗战争何时结束的问题上含糊其辞，掩盖不了局势的恶化。德黑兰支持的胡塞武装刚刚占领了曼德海峡及其周边地区，这可能使他们在另一条重要的石油出口通道上掌握了控制权，而美国仍在努力全面重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

总统本周接连遭遇的一系列不幸事件，加在一起表明，这不仅仅是第二任总统通常会遇到的政治挫折。

每一项举措都源于特朗普的一次大胆冒险，以及他对自身个人和政治权力的过分乐观的评估。

他猛烈抨击布雷特·卡瓦诺、尼尔·戈萨奇和艾米·科尼·巴雷特三位大法官，指责他们似乎站在多数派一边，阻挠他企图在中期选举前通过邮寄选票制造混乱。“这些人并非我面试的最高法院大法官人选，”特朗普在Truth Social网站上写道。他的批评颇具启发性，因为它表明他认为，他任命的大法官会以一种能够偿还他个人恩惠的方式来裁决法律。

民主党人抱怨最高法院经常与特朗普一样，主张扩大行政权力。但有时，这三位大法官也曾制约过特朗普的权力。如今时局动荡，但最高法院大法官维护宪法（宪法赋予各州选举权）并不令人意外。他们的终身任期也意味着，即使特朗普卸任，他们仍将继续书写自己的历史篇章。

盖蒂图片社/路透社

特朗普对美联储加息的反应将受到密切关注。此前，特朗普曾多次敦促前任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔降息，因此对沃什寄予厚望。

特朗普或许比任何一位总统都更甚，他削弱了宪法和惯例对行政权力的限制。例如，他尤其成功地通过采取令人震惊的行动，抢在法院最初采取行动之前，削弱了联邦政府的部分职能。

但肯尼迪中心闹剧、邮寄投票的决定以及美联储的独立性都是重要的指标。它们表明，即使面对一位咄咄逼人的总统，一些政府机构依然立场坚定。

特朗普在过去十年里一直主导着共和党。但他无法在一场宪法存疑的战争上维持全党一致支持；他未能迫使参议院通过他的选民登记法案；以及议员们对他提出的5000美元赠款计划的冷淡态度，都表明他的权力基础正在出现裂痕。

加拿大向欧盟示好，这在地缘政治上引起了巨大震动。特朗普第二任期将美国对西半球的霸权奉为圭臬。然而，这个美国在地理和文化上最亲密的盟友，却寻求与奉行“美国优先”的邻国决裂，这具有高度象征意义，也表明加拿大如今在政治和道德层面上更倾向于与欧洲保持一致。

目前尚不清楚加入欧盟的准成员国身份意味着什么，以及如果当前的关税战结束，这将如何改变加拿大与美国庞大的贸易关系。但很明显，特朗普提出的“第51个州”威胁让渥太华得出结论：即使特朗普卸任，加拿大也无法再依赖华盛顿。北美贸易关系的削弱和联盟体系的瓦解最终将削弱华盛顿投射统一西方力量的能力。

同样，伊朗冲突也在逐渐动摇美国政府的自负，即美国强大到可以为所欲为。

总统无法断言战争会在中期选举前还是选举后结束。伊朗的武装力量可能遭受重创，经济也可能自由落体式下滑。但这场与超级大国对抗的战争已持续近八个月，德黑兰的革命政权依然稳固如初。

Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images

那么，特朗普这周的一系列重大转变将如何改变他的政治地位，如何影响中期选举，以及将如何为选举季后华盛顿权力格局的转变定下基调？

一个显而易见的结论是，政治引力可能正在重新发挥作用。伊朗战争期间的议员倒戈事件表明，特朗普也无法避免那些处境危险的议员寻求与不受欢迎的总统保持距离的惯例。

“在与总统意见一致的地方，我们会与他据理力争。在诸如牛肉问题、关税问题、以及目前在伊朗的军事行动状况等问题上与总统意见相左的地方，我们会公开批评他，并就此展开对话。”爱荷华州众议员扎克·纳恩（Zach Nunn）周二投票支持结束战争，他告诉CNN的马努·拉朱（Manu Raju）。

这是中期选举的一个不祥之兆。纳恩显然是在迎合特朗普铁票仓州的选民情绪。他的困境表明共和党的根基正在动摇。

特朗普对普通政治力量的敏感性意义重大，因为去年的氛围是他几乎势不可挡；他摧毁了所有护栏，能够迫使精英律师事务所、企业高管和大学校长对他俯首称臣。

这并非意味着特朗普已经江郎才尽。长期以来，他一直无视专家们关于他政治生涯终结的预测。不到两年前，他上演了美国历史上最伟大的政治复兴。

如果民主党在中期选举中重新夺回众议院或参议院的控制权，特朗普反而可能找到新的政治定位。民主党在对白宫展开铺天盖地的调查或意识形态左倾的过程中，任何过度干预都将为一位擅长利用对手的政治斗士提供可乘之机。

但是，一位支持率只有30%的总统，其权力在一周内明显减弱，这是不容忽视的。

一旦不可战胜的光环消失，政治权威就会迅速瓦解。