US Fed raises interest rates for first time in three years

The 25 basis-point hike is the first raise in three years and comes before critical midterm elections in the United States.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh has been under pressure to increase interest rates as inflation continues to stay high [File: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters]

The United States Federal Reserve has said it will raise interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point as inflation, driven by soaring fuel prices amid the US-Iran war, continues to weigh on the economy.

The Fed, which is the central bank of the US, said on Wednesday that it will hike interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent to 4 percent.

list 1 of 4 Mbappe, Vinicius and Konate court controversy with Ceuta solidarity shirts

list 2 of 4 Iran war has cost the US $38bn: How will it impact US economy, politics?

list 3 of 4 Poll shows Americans are increasingly alarmed by AI’s ecological footprint

list 4 of 4 UK trade unions back motion to boycott and sanction Israel

It is the first hike in more than three years and comes just weeks before the US midterm elections, despite repeated demands from US President Donald Trump to lower rates.

“Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace. While uncertainty remains elevated owing, in part, to geopolitical developments, domestic spending has been resilient,” the Fed said in a statement on Wednesday.

“Inflation remains elevated. Today’s policy action will support a timelier return to the Committee’s 2 percent goal. The Committee will deliver price stability.”

After Wednesday’s hike, Fed officials expect one more rate increase this year, according to their quarterly projections, and expect rates to remain unchanged through next year.

CME FedWatch, which tracks the likelihood of monetary policy decisions, forecast a 92.3 percent chance of the Fed increasing rates to 3.75 to 4 percent. A week ago, that forecast was a 40 percent chance of a quarter-percent rate increase.

But in the days since, a slew of data shifted those expectations.

For one, consumer prices jumped in August by 0.4 percent, the highest increase in four months. Trump’s tariffs and capital spending to feed the artificial intelligence boom have also pressed prices.

On an annual basis, prices rose 3.4 percent, matching the increase recorded in July, while the job market remains healthy .

Since then, benchmark crude oil prices have continued to soar as strikes in the US-Israel war on Iran have intensified. Brent crude hovered near $109 per barrel on Tuesday.

The average price for a gallon of petrol is $4.36 ($1.15 per litre), up 14 cents in the past week, and up from $4.06 ($1.07 per litre) last month, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA), which tracks daily petrol prices.

Diesel, on the other hand, was at $6.31 ($1.67 per litre), the highest recorded average and roughly double from a year ago. That, in turn, is expected to further stoke prices as diesel is used in trucks to haul everything from fruits and vegetables to steel and cement.

At the same time, the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield broke above the psychologically important 5 percent threshold on Tuesday, hitting 5.02 percent , its highest level in 19 years. The yield serves as a benchmark for borrowing costs, including car loans and home mortgages, and is a bellwether for inflation.

“The economy is in an unusual place,” Michael Klein, professor of international economic affairs at Tufts University’s Fletcher School and executive editor of EconoFact, a nonpartisan economic and social policy publication, as unemployment remains at a comfortable level while higher prices continue to stick, sending inflation beyond the Fed’s target of 2 percent.

“There [has been] a lot of pressure on Chairman Warsh to raise interest rates because of inflation coming in high, and that has been compounded by concerns about Trump’s pressure” as the president has continued to demand that interest rates be lowered, Klein said.

“Higher interest rates tend to weaken the economy … but if the market believes that there’s going to be a rate increase, it’s priced in already as prices move on news, so this won’t be news,” Klein said, adding that should help steady yields.

The White House did not immediately respond to Al Jazeera’s request for comment on the rate increase.

Nearly three hours after the interest rate decision, Trump posted on Truth Social, his social media platform, that “Interest Rates in the United States should be 1%, or less, because we are the Best Credit in the World — BY FAR. Our Country is BOOMING with new Investment!”

He added, “LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, AND FAST!” but didn’t mention Warsh directly.

Trump repeatedly berated Warsh’s predecessor, Jerome Powell, for not lowering rates. The government even launched a criminal probe into Powell, which he said at the time were “ pretexts ” to undermine the independence of the Fed.

此次加息 25 个基点是三年来的首次加息，正值美国关键的中期选举之前。

由于通胀持续高企，美联储主席凯文·沃什面临着提高利率的压力。[图片：凯文·拉马克/路透社]

由于美伊战争期间燃油价格飙升导致的通胀持续对经济造成压力，美国联邦储备委员会表示将把利率提高0.25个百分点。

美国中央银行美联储周三表示，将把利率上调25个基点，至3.75%至4%。

（共4条，第1条）姆巴佩、维尼修斯和科纳特身穿休达声援T恤引发争议

伊朗战争已使美国损失 380 亿美元：这将如何影响美国经济和政治？（共 4 项，第 2 项）

民调显示，美国人越来越担忧人工智能对环境的影响（共4项民调，这是第3项）。

英国四大工会之一支持抵制和制裁以色列的动议。

这是三年多来的首次加息，而且距离美国中期选举仅几周之遥，尽管美国总统唐纳德·特朗普一再要求降低利率。

美联储周三在一份声明中表示：“经济活动正稳步扩张。尽管地缘政治发展等因素导致不确定性依然较高，但国内支出依然保持韧性。”

“通胀依然高企。今天的政策行动将有助于更快地实现委员会设定的2%的目标。委员会将致力于稳定物价。”

根据美联储官员的季度预测，继周三加息之后，预计今年还将加息一次，并预计利率将在明年保持不变。

追踪货币政策决策可能性的CME FedWatch预测，美联储将利率上调至3.75%至4%的可能性为92.3%。一周前，该预测为加息0.25个百分点的可能性为40%。

但此后几天，大量数据改变了这些预期。

首先，8月份消费者价格上涨了0.4%，创四个月来最大涨幅。特朗普的关税政策以及为推动人工智能热潮而进行的资本支出也推高了物价。

按年计算，物价上涨了 3.4%，与 7 月份的涨幅持平，而就业市场依然健康。

此后，随着美以对伊朗战争的空袭升级，基准原油价格持续飙升。周二，布伦特原油价格徘徊在每桶109美元附近。

据追踪每日汽油价格的美国汽车协会 (AAA) 称，汽油平均价格为每加仑 4.36 美元（每升 1.15 美元），比上周上涨了 14 美分，比上个月的 4.06 美元（每升 1.07 美元）有所上涨。

另一方面，柴油价格为每加仑6.31美元（每升1.67美元），创历史新高，约为去年同期的两倍。由于卡车运输的货物种类繁多，从水果蔬菜到钢铁水泥，柴油价格上涨预计将进一步推高油价。

与此同时，基准10年期美国国债收益率周二突破了具有重要心理意义的5%关口，达到5.02%，创下19年来的最高水平。该收益率是衡量借贷成本（包括汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款）的基准，也是通胀的风向标。

“经济正处于一个不寻常的境地，”塔夫茨大学弗莱彻学院国际经济事务教授、无党派经济和社会政策出版物《EconoFact》的执行主编迈克尔·克莱因表示，失业率仍处于较为舒适的水平，而物价持续上涨，导致通胀率超过了美联储2%的目标。

克莱因表示，“由于通胀高企，沃什主席面临着提高利率的巨大压力，而特朗普总统不断要求降低利率，这更加剧了人们对特朗普施压的担忧。”

克莱因表示：“利率上升往往会削弱经济……但如果市场认为利率将会上升，那么由于价格会随着消息波动，这笔支出已经被计入价格，所以这不会成为新闻。”他还补充说，这应该有助于稳定收益率。

白宫尚未立即回应半岛电视台关于此次加息的置评请求。

在利率决议公布近三个小时后，特朗普在他的社交媒体平台Truth Social上发帖称：“美国的利率应该在1%或更低，因为我们的信用是世界上最好的——遥遥领先。我们的国家正蓬勃发展，涌现出大量新的投资！”

他还补充道：“降低美国的利率，而且要快！”但他没有直接提到沃什。

特朗普多次抨击沃什的前任杰罗姆·鲍威尔没有降低利率。​​政府甚至对鲍威尔展开刑事调查，鲍威尔当时称这是“借口”，目的是破坏美联储的独立性。