Fed rate hike puts BOK under pressure over further rate increase

The Bank of Korea is under growing pressure to raise rates again before year-end after the U.S. Federal Reserve lifted its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points in Washington on Wednesday. The move widened the Korea-U.S. rate gap to 1 percentage point, adding concerns about the won and Seoul housing prices. Some observers still expect the BOK to slow tightening as it weighs inflation, growth, debt and financial burdens.

The Fed lifted its benchmark rate range from 3.50 to 3.75 percent to 3.75 to 4.00 percent after its two-day meeting in Washington.

Twelve of the 18 officials submitting rate projections expected the Fed benchmark to reach 4.00 to 4.25 percent by year-end, while four projected 4.25 to 4.50 percent.

The BOK had already delivered back-to-back rate hikes in July and August.

Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol held an expanded joint macroeconomic and financial meeting with BOK Gov. Shin Hyun-song, Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eog-weon and Financial Supervisory Service Gov. Lee Chan-jin after the Fed decision.

Published Sep 17, 2026 3:21 pm KST

Authorities see limited impact, stand ready to curb volatility

From left, Financial Supervisory Service Gov. Lee Chan-jin, Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol, Bank of Korea Gov. Shin Hyun-song and Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eog-weon pose ahead of their meeting in Seoul, Thursday, following the U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to raise its policy rate. Courtesy of Ministry of Finance and Economy

The Bank of Korea (BOK) is facing growing expectations of another rate hike before the end of the year after the U.S. Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points in its first hike since July 2023, widening the interest rate gap between Seoul and Washington to 1 percentage point, analysts said Thursday.

While persistent inflationary pressures continue to warrant monetary action, the widening interest rate gap with the U.S., which could intensify downward pressure on the Korean won, and renewed instability in housing prices in the Seoul metropolitan area are also being cited as factors that could prompt another rate hike.

Nevertheless, some market observers expect the BOK to moderate the pace of tightening, given that it already delivered back-to-back rate hikes in July and August to address domestic inflation, housing market overheating and the prospect of tighter U.S. monetary policy. The central bank may instead take time to assess the impact of those measures while limiting the burden on financially vulnerable households and small businesses.

Following its two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in Washington on Wednesday (local time), the U.S. central bank raised its benchmark rate range from 3.50-3.75 percent to 3.75-4.00 percent. Consequently, the gap between the U.S. upper target bound and Korea’s 3.00 percent base rate widened to 1 percentage point.

The BOK does not have to match the Fed’s moves mechanically. Its monetary policy decisions depend on a comprehensive assessment of domestic inflation, economic growth, household debt, real estate trends and foreign exchange conditions. The BOK’s consecutive hikes in July and August were also intended not only to address domestic financial risks but also to prepare for a widening interest rate gap.

However, if the Fed raises rates further, the BOK could face a tougher decision over whether to follow suit.

A wider gap could strengthen the dollar and increase concerns over capital outflows, pushing up the won-dollar exchange rate. A weaker won raises the cost of imports such as crude oil, adding to domestic inflationary pressures. If higher energy costs coincide with a rebound in Seoul property prices, the case for further tightening could strengthen.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh speaks during a news conference following Federal Open Market Committee meetings at Federal Reserve Headquarters in Washington D.C., Wednesday (local time). AFP-Yonhap

Following the Fed decision, experts focused on the unanimous support for the hike, with 12 of the 18 officials submitting rate projections expecting the benchmark to reach 4.00-4.25 percent by year-end. Four even projected a range of 4.25-4.50 percent.

“The Fed signaled that it could raise rates further next year rather than cut them after two rate hikes this year, leading the market to interpret this not as a temporary measure, but as the start of a full-scale hiking cycle,” said Park Joon-woo, an analyst at Hana Securities.

In light of the Fed’s hawkish stance and persistent underlying inflation, expectations remain strong for another BOK rate hike before year-end, with November seen as a more likely timing than next month.

Minutes from the BOK’s Monetary Policy Board meeting in August show that a majority of members emphasized evaluating the lagged effects of earlier rate hikes before deciding on the next step. They sought to assess the impact on consumer spending, credit growth and housing markets, as well as the growing debt-servicing burden on vulnerable borrowers.

“The central message of the August minutes is not that the rationale for further hikes has diminished, but rather that the focus has shifted from whether to raise rates to the timing and velocity of future adjustments,” said Kim Myung-sil, a researcher at iM Securities.

Meanwhile, Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol convened an expanded joint macroeconomic and financial meeting with BOK Gov. Shin Hyun-song, Financial Services Commission Chairman Lee Eog-weon and Financial Supervisory Service Gov. Lee Chan-jin immediately after the Fed’s decision to review its impact.

The authorities projected a limited market impact, saying the hike had already been priced in and overall financial market conditions remained resilient. Still, they agreed to closely monitor treasury market dynamics and deploy stabilization measures if volatility escalates.

Separately, BOK Deputy Gov. Kwon Min-soo led a market review meeting, citing external risks including developments in the Middle East conflict, international oil prices, fiscal sustainability concerns across major economies and uncertainties surrounding the artificial intelligence sector.

"With monetary policy decisions scheduled this week in major economies such as Japan and the U.K., we will maintain heightened vigilance and continuously monitor domestic financial and foreign exchange market conditions," he said.

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周三，美联储在华盛顿宣布将政策利率上调0.25个百分点，此举令韩国央行面临越来越大的压力，需要在年底前再次加息。此举将韩美利率差扩大至1个百分点，加剧了人们对韩元和首尔房价的担忧。一些观察人士仍然预计，韩国央行在权衡通胀、经济增长、债务和财政负担等因素后，将放缓紧缩步伐。

美联储在华盛顿举行了为期两天的会议后，将基准利率区间从 3.50% 至 3.75% 上调至 3.75% 至 4.00%。

提交利率预测的 18 位官员中，有 12 位预计美联储基准利率到年底将达到 4.00% 至 4.25%，另有 4 位预计为 4.25% 至 4.50%。

韩国央行已于7月和8月连续两次加息。

美联储做出决定后，韩国财政部长具允哲与韩国央行行长申贤松、金融服务委员会委员长李玉元和金融监督院院长李灿镇举行了扩大的宏观经济和金融联合会议。

发布于2026年9月17日下午3:21（韩国标准时间）

当局认为影响有限，并已做好准备遏制市场波动。

周四，在美联储决定提高政策利率后，韩国金融监督院院长李灿镇（左）、财政部长具允哲、韩国央行行长申铉松和金融服务委员会委员长李玉元在首尔举行会议前合影。图片由韩国财政经济部提供。

分析人士周四表示，在美联储自2023年7月以来首次加息0.25个百分点后，韩国央行(BOK)面临着在年底前再次加息的越来越大的预期，首尔和华盛顿之间的利率差距扩大到1个百分点。

尽管持续的通胀压力仍然需要采取货币政策，但与美国不断扩大的利率差距（这可能会加剧韩元的下行压力）以及首尔都市圈房价的再次不稳定也被认为是可能促使再次加息的因素。

尽管如此，一些市场观察人士预计，鉴于韩国央行已在7月和8月连续加息以应对国内通胀、房地产市场过热以及美国货币政策可能收紧的预期，韩国央行将放缓紧缩步伐。央行可能会选择花时间评估这些措施的影响，同时尽量减轻对财务状况脆弱的家庭和小企业的负担。

美国联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）周三（当地时间）在华盛顿举行了为期两天的会议，会后将基准利率区间从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%。因此，美国利率上限目标与韩国3.00%的基准利率之间的差距扩大至1个百分点。

韩国央行无需机械地跟随美联储的步伐。其货币政策决策取决于对国内通胀、经济增长、家庭债务、房地产趋势和外汇状况的综合评估。韩国央行在7月和8月的连续加息，不仅旨在应对国内金融风险，也是为了应对利率差距扩大的情况。

然而，如果美联储进一步加息，韩国央行在是否跟进加息方面可能会面临更艰难的抉择。

韩元与美元汇率差距扩大可能导致美元走强，加剧资本外流担忧，从而推高韩元兑美元汇率。韩元贬值会推高原油等进口商品的价格，加剧国内通胀压力。如果能源成本上涨恰逢首尔房地产价格反弹，则进一步收紧货币政策的理由可能会更加充分。

美联储主席凯文·沃什周三（当地时间）在华盛顿特区美联储总部举行的联邦公开市场委员会会议后的新闻发布会上发表讲话。法新社-韩联社

美联储做出决定后，专家们关注的焦点是各方对加息的一致支持，18位官员中有12位提交了利率预测，预计基准利率将在年底前达到4.00%至4.25%。其中四位甚至预测利率区间为4.25%至4.50%。

“美联储暗示，在今年两次加息之后，明年可能会进一步加息而不是降息，这导致市场将此解读为全面加息周期的开始，而不是暂时的措施，”韩亚证券分析师朴俊宇表示。

鉴于美联储的鹰派立场和持续的潜在通胀，市场仍然强烈预期韩国央行将在年底前再次加息，而11月被认为比下个月更有可能加息。

韩国央行货币政策委员会8月份的会议纪要显示，多数委员强调，在决定下一步行动之前，应评估此前加息的滞后效应。他们力求评估加息对消费支出、信贷增长和房地产市场的影响，以及对弱势借款人日益沉重的债务偿还负担。

iM Securities 的研究员金明实表示：“8 月份会议纪要的核心信息并非进一步加息的理由有所减弱，而是关注点已从是否加息转移到未来调整的时机和速度。”

与此同时，在美联储决定评估其影响后，韩国财政部长具允哲立即召集韩国央行行长申铉松、金融服务委员会委员长李玉元和金融监督院院长李灿镇举行了扩大的宏观经济和金融联合会议。

当局预计此次加息对市场的影响有限，称市场已消化了加息预期，整体金融市场状况依然稳健。不过，他们同意密切关注国债市场动态，并在市场波动加剧时采取稳定措施。

此外，韩国央行副行长权珉洙主持召开市场评估会议，指出外部风险包括中东冲突局势发展、国际油价、主要经济体的财政可持续性问题以及人工智能领域的不确定性。

“鉴于本周日本和英国等主要经济体将公布货币政策决定，我们将保持高度警惕，并持续监测国内金融和外汇市场状况，”他说道。

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