Mortgage rates climb for fourth-straight week to hit highest level since Trump took office

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Homebuyers could soon have to face an unwelcome milestone: a 7% mortgage rate.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate inched closer to that level this week, climbing to 6.95%, up from 6.76% last week, according to Freddie Mac. It’s the fourth-straight week of rising rates and the largest one-week jump in mortgage rates in 16 months.

Mortgage rates are at their highest level since the week of January 30, 2025, the first full week of President Donald Trump’s second term.

Higher mortgage rates could be a setback for would-be home buyers waiting on the sidelines. The difference between locking in a mortgage earlier this year and doing so today could add tens of thousands of dollars to mortgage payments over a 30-year loan on a typical home.

And the recent significant moves higher may be scaring off some buyers.

Mortgage applications to buy a new home dropped 19% last week compared with the same week a year ago, according to Mortgage Bankers Association data released Wednesday.

Applications to refinance existing mortgages plunged 65% compared to this time last year, the report said.

Higher mortgage rates will “certainly slow home purchases and mortgage refinancing through the rest of the year,” Eric Orenstein, Fitch Ratings senior director said in a statement.

Earlier this year, there was a moment of hope that mortgage rates could move lower. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate even briefly dropped below 6% in February for the first time in three years. But the outbreak of war in Iran and the subsequent climb in oil prices and overall inflation have pushed mortgage rates higher over the past few months.

Mortgage rates loosely track the 10-year Treasury yield, which moves on investors’ inflation expectations and affects borrowing rates throughout the economy.

Lately, the bond market, including the 10-year Treasury, has been roiled by the effects of the Middle East conflict and concerns about an explosion of government spending amid mounting national debt. Yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices and this week, the 10-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007 .

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve hiked its benchmark interest rate by a quarter point – its first rate hike since July 2023 – in a renewed effort to tame inflation.

The Fed’s move may help mortgage rates move lower in the long run, said Zillow’s chief economist, Mischa Fisher.

“A higher fed funds rate today is the medicine the housing market needs to recover tomorrow,” Fisher said.

“Greater market confidence in inflation being under control is more likely to bring mortgage rates lower in 2027 and get the recovery back on track,” he added. “Unfortunately, it’s going to be a challenged end of the year for home sales before we get there.”

贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社

购房者可能很快就要面临一个令人不快的里程碑：7% 的抵押贷款利率。

据房地美（Freddie Mac）的数据显示，本周30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率小幅逼近该水平，从上周的6.76%攀升至6.95%。这是利率连续第四周上涨，也是16个月以来抵押贷款利率单周涨幅最大的一次。

抵押贷款利率已达到自 2025 年 1 月 30 日当周以来的最高水平，而那一周正是唐纳德·特朗普总统第二个任期的第一个完整周。

对于那些仍在观望的潜在购房者来说，更高的抵押贷款利率可能是一个打击。如果今年早些时候锁定抵押贷款利率，而现在锁定利率，那么在30年期普通房屋贷款中，每月还款额可能会增加数万美元。

近期的大幅上涨可能吓跑了一些买家。

根据抵押贷款银行家协会周三公布的数据，上周购买新房的抵押贷款申请量比去年同期下降了 19%。

报告称，现有抵押贷款再融资申请数量与去年同期相比暴跌了 65%。

惠誉评级高级主管埃里克·奥伦斯坦在一份声明中表示，更高的抵押贷款利率“肯定会在今年余下的时间里减缓房屋购买和抵押贷款再融资的速度”。

今年年初，人们一度燃起抵押贷款利率可能下降的希望。2月份，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率甚至短暂跌破6%，创下三年来新低。但伊朗战争爆发以及随之而来的油价上涨和整体通胀加剧，在过去几个月里推高了抵押贷款利率。

抵押贷款利率大致与 10 年期国债收益率挂钩，而 10 年期国债收益率又受投资者通胀预期的影响，进而影响整个经济的借贷利率。

近来，包括10年期美国国债在内的债券市场受到中东冲突的影响，以及对政府支出在国家债务不断攀升的情况下可能出现激增的担忧，导致市场动荡不安。收益率与债券价格走势相反，本周10年期美国国债收益率触及2007年以来的最高水平。

周三，美联储将基准利率上调了0.25个百分点——这是自2023年7月以来的首次加息——以再次努力抑制通胀。

Zillow首席经济学家米沙·费舍尔表示，美联储的举措可能有助于抵押贷款利率从长远来看走低。

费舍尔表示：“今天提高联邦基金利率是房地产市场明天复苏所需的良药。”

他补充道：“市场对通胀得到控制的信心增强，更有可能在2027年降低抵押贷款利率，并使经济复苏重回正轨。不幸的是，在此之前，年底房屋销售将面临挑战。”