Ghalibaf’s maths missile at Trump decoded: Is Iran fixing US interest rates?

Iran’s speaker mocks US interest rates, citing the Taylor equation amidst the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, dressed in the uniform of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), chairs a session in Tehran on February 1, 2026 [File: Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency (ICANA)/AFP]

Iran’s missiles and drones have downed dozens of US aircraft, damaged or destroyed hundreds of the United States’ buildings at its bases in the Middle East, and drained its inventories of military equipment worth billions of dollars, the Pentagon conceded earlier this week.

On Wednesday, Tehran unleashed another unlikely weapon in its war against the US: a maths equation.

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Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who has also been a lead negotiator during talks between Tehran and Washington at different stages during the past six months, typed out a version of the Taylor equation, a formula used by central banks to determine interest rates, in a post on X loaded with a wartime message.

“Let’s see if a hike could open SOH or produce a single barrel,” he wrote, referring to interest rate hikes and the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial waterway Iran has effectively blocked for global shipping.

“You can’t 25bp [basis points] a chokepoint,” he added, seemingly again referring to the strait. “It’s SOH risk premium, and We set it.”

Hours after Ghalibaf’s post, the US Federal Reserve did raise the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points.

Early in the war, which was launched by the US and Israel against Iran on February 28, Ghalibaf frequently used financial arguments to mock how the conflict was being conducted by the administration of US President Donald Trump, to point to Iran’s ability to hurt Washington economically unless it changed its approach.

Now he’s turned to maths.

“This is a spectacular bit of agitprop from Iran, a country which, if nothing else in 2026, has demonstrated an impressive ability to needle its US opponent,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, told Al Jazeera.

But what exactly is Ghalibaf trying to say? What is the Taylor equation, has the Iran war influenced the US interest rate, and does Tehran “set it”, as the parliament speaker has suggested?

What is the Taylor equation that Ghalibaf cited?

The rule is a formula economists use to estimate where a central bank should set interest rates based on inflation and the strength of the economy.

Developed by economist John Taylor in the early 1990s, the rule links the US federal funds rate to inflation and the “output gap” – the difference between actual economic output and its potential.

In its simplest form, the formula is:

Interest rate = inflation + 0.5(output gap) + 0.5(inflation − 2%) + 2%.

This means the recommended interest rate rises when inflation moves above the 2 percent target or when economic output exceeds its potential. It falls when inflation weakens or the economy operates below potential.

However, the equation is a benchmark, not a set rule that is strictly followed. Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve weigh other economic factors when setting interest rates.

Is the Iran war a factor in the US interest rate hike?

Trump’s tariffs, the energy shock following the US-Israeli war with Iran, and heavy investment associated with the artificial intelligence boom, taken together, have kept inflationary pressures strong, experts say.

On Wednesday, when the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25bp, it was the first increase in three years.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, in his speech following the rate hike, said renewed fighting between the US and Iran, which has pushed up petrol prices, helped convince Fed officials to support higher rates.

“There’s no hiding from hot spots around the world,” Warsh said.

IG Group’s Beauchamp said, “The Iran war, indirectly, is a huge driver of last night’s hike, though no one wants to admit it.”

“The energy spike has combined with the rise in yields to drive the Fed into a corner with no way out,” he said.

Susannah Streeter, chief investment strategist at the Wealth Club, said there is “no denying” that Iran’s retaliatory action against the US and its allies across the Gulf region has “intensified concerns about energy supplies and led to hotter inflation forecasts”.

“The ongoing geopolitical turmoil and elevated crude prices certainly were key issues behind the Fed’s decision to hike rates,” she said.

Is Iran ‘setting’ the US interest rate?

Wealth Club’s Streeter cautioned that while the war in the Middle East and rising oil prices were certainly an element in the Fed’s decision, they weren’t the “only factors at play”.

“The spending might of AI hyperscalers has also pulsed through the veins of the economy, with strong capital investment and resilient domestic demand adding to inflationary pressures, so policymakers will have been looking at the whole picture,” she noted.

“So, while Tehran has arguably had an influence on some of the forces feeding into US monetary policy, particularly through the impact of the conflict on oil supplies and prices, it is not ‘setting’ US interest rates.”

Streeter said the US Federal Reserve was responding to a much broader set of economic conditions.

“Iran’s actions have affected the inflation outlook, but the decision on where to set interest rates ultimately rests with the Federal Reserve, and there are plenty of other data points policymakers use,” she noted.

What’s behind Ghalibaf’s maths mocking?

In March, Iran’s parliamentary speaker repeatedly used social media to comment on markets and energy prices, including mocking efforts by the Trump administration to influence oil futures and arguing that financial manoeuvring could not create “actual fuel” at petrol stations.

Last month, Ghalibaf posted a graphic bearing the phrase “Make America Hungry Again” – a play on Trump’s slogan “Make America Great Again” – together with statistics on food insecurity and hunger in the US. “You can’t cover up defeats with false claims,” he said.

“Ghalibaf’s point is that a US interest rate increase cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz or replace disrupted oil supplies,” Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, said. “His altered Taylor rule adds Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb to a formula normally concerned with inflation and economic output. He is using the Fed’s own language to argue that the war’s economic costs depend partly on maritime security, which Tehran can affect.”

That is a statement about Iran’s leverage rather than a serious proposal for setting interest rates, she added.

“The timing matters: he posted it as the Fed raised rates by a quarter point. His repeated financial posts are aimed at making the war’s costs legible to a US audience through prices, markets and monetary policy.”

伊朗发言人嘲讽美国利率，并援引泰勒方程，此时霍尔木兹海峡实际上已经关闭。

2026年2月1日，伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫身着伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）制服，在德黑兰主持会议。[图片来源：伊斯兰协商会议通讯社（ICANA）/法新社]

五角大楼本周早些时候承认，伊朗的导弹和无人机击落了数十架美国飞机，损坏或摧毁了美国在中东基地的数百座建筑物，并耗尽了其价值数十亿美元的军事装备库存。

周三，德黑兰在对美战争中又打出了一件意想不到的武器：一个数学方程式。

列表 1/4 “他们呼唤我们”：特朗普是否已将曼德海峡拱手让给胡塞武装？

美国中央司令部告诉半岛电视台，霍尔木兹海峡封锁“非常有效”（共4份名单，此为第2份）。

特朗普声称将与伊朗直接对话：外交努力是否正在复苏？（共4条，此为第3条）

问题四：为什么全球通货膨胀再次上升？（共四题，这是第四题）

伊朗议会议长穆罕默德·巴格尔·加利巴夫在过去六个月中曾多次担任德黑兰和华盛顿之间谈判的主要谈判代表，他在 X 网站上发布了一篇充满战时信息的文章，文章中他写出了泰勒方程的一个版本，该方程是中央银行用来确定利率的公式。

“让我们看看加息能否打开霍尔木兹海峡，或者能否生产出一桶原油，”他写道，指的是加息和霍尔木兹海峡，这条对全球航运至关重要的水道已被伊朗有效地封锁。

“你不能在一个咽喉要道上只放25个基点，”他补充道，似乎又在指海峡。“这是SOH风险溢价，由我们设定。”

在加利巴夫发布帖子几个小时后，美联储确实将基准利率提高了 25 个基点。

在美以两国于 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动战争初期，加利巴夫经常利用经济方面的论据来嘲讽美国总统唐纳德·特朗普政府处理这场冲突的方式，以此指出，除非美国改变其策略，否则伊朗有能力在经济上打击华盛顿。

现在他转而研究数学了。

“这是伊朗一次精彩的宣传造势，伊朗在2026年展现出了令人印象深刻的挑衅美国对手的能力，”IG集团首席市场分析师克里斯·比彻姆告诉半岛电视台。

但加利巴夫究竟想表达什么？泰勒方程是什么？伊朗战争是否影响了美国利率？德黑兰是否像议长所暗示的那样“设定了利率”？

Ghalibaf引用的泰勒方程是什么？

这条规则是经济学家用来根据通货膨胀和经济实力来估算中央银行应该将利率设定在什么水平的公式。

该规则由经济学家约翰·泰勒在 20 世纪 90 年代初制定，将美国联邦基金利率与通货膨胀和“产出缺口”（实际经济产出与其潜在产出之间的差异）联系起来。

最简单的公式是：

利率 = 通货膨胀率 + 0.5(产出缺口) + 0.5(通货膨胀率 - 2%) + 2%。

这意味着，当通胀率超过2%的目标值或经济产出超过潜在水平时，建议利率上升；当通胀率下降或经济低于潜在水平时，建议利率下降。

然而，这个公式只是一个参考基准，并非必须严格遵守的既定规则。美联储的决策者在设定利率时还会考虑其他经济因素。

伊朗战争是美国加息的因素之一吗？

专家表示，特朗普的关税政策、美以伊朗战争后能源市场的冲击，以及人工智能热潮带来的巨额投资，这些因素加在一起，使得通胀压力持续强劲。

周三，美联储将利率上调了 25 个基点，这是三年来的首次加息。

美联储主席凯文·沃什在加息后的讲话中表示，美国和伊朗之间再次爆发冲突，推高了汽油价格，这促使美联储官员支持提高利率。

“世界各地的热点地区都无处可逃，”沃什说。

IG集团的博尚表示：“伊朗战争间接地推动了昨晚的上涨，尽管没有人愿意承认这一点。”

他说：“能源价格飙升加上收益率上升，已经把美联储逼入了绝境，无路可走。”

财富俱乐部首席投资策略师苏珊娜·斯特里特表示，“不可否认”，伊朗对美国及其海湾地区盟友的报复行动“加剧了人们对能源供应的担忧，并导致通胀预期升温”。

她表示：“持续的地缘政治动荡和高企的原油价格无疑是美联储决定加息的关键因素。”

伊朗是否在“设定”美国利率？

Wealth Club 的 Streeter 警告说，虽然中东战争和不断上涨的油价无疑是美联储决策的一个因素，但它们并不是“唯一的影响因素”。

她指出：“人工智能超大规模企业的支出实力也给经济注入了活力，强劲的资本投资和韧性十足的国内需求加剧了通胀压力，因此政策制定者肯定会从整体上考虑问题。”

“因此，虽然德黑兰可能对影响美国货币政策的一些因素产生了影响，特别是通过冲突对石油供应和价格的影响，但它并没有‘设定’美国的利率。”

斯特里特表示，美联储正在应对一系列更广泛的经济状况。

她指出：“伊朗的行动影响了通胀前景，但利率的最终设定权在于美联储，决策者还会参考许多其他数据点。”

Ghalibaf嘲讽数学的背后是什么原因？

今年3月，伊朗议会议长多次利用社交媒体对市场和能源价格发表评论，包括嘲讽特朗普政府试图影响石油期货的努力，并辩称金融操纵无法在加油站创造“真正的燃料”。

上个月，加利巴夫发布了一张图，上面写着“让美国再次饥饿”（Make America Hungry Again），这是对特朗普竞选口号“让美国再次伟大”（Make America Great Again）的戏仿，图中还附有美国粮食安全和饥饿问题的统计数据。他说：“你无法用虚假声明掩盖失败。”

“加利巴夫的观点是，美国加息无法重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，也无法弥补中断的石油供应，”华盛顿特区国际政策中心高级研究员内加尔·莫尔塔扎维表示。“他修改后的泰勒规则将霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡纳入了通常与通胀和经济产出相关的公式中。他借用美联储自身的措辞来论证，战争的经济成本部分取决于海上安全，而德黑兰可以影响海上安全。”

她补充说，这与其说是制定利率的严肃提议，不如说是伊朗在利用自身影响力的一种表态。

“时机很重要：他发布这条消息时，美联储刚刚加息25个基点。他反复发布有关金融的文章，旨在通过价格、市场和货币政策，让美国民众清楚地了解战争的成本。”