China faces oil challenge as prices soar and supply options narrow

Beijing is drawing on vast reserves and seeking alternative crude as shipping disruption continues.

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping react as they hold a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, October 30, 2025 [File: Reuters/Evelyn Hockstein]

Oil prices in China have surged to record highs amid mounting disruptions to exports from the Middle East, as Beijing faces an increasingly difficult balancing act between securing its own energy supplies and preventing global oil prices from climbing even higher.

Saudi Arabia has been forced to shut a key pipeline that had become an important route for getting oil to China and other Asian markets while disruption in the Strait of Hormuz restricted exports through the Gulf. The pipeline, which carries crude across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, was shut following attacks by an Iran-backed group in Iraq.

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Its closure leaves two vital routes for Middle Eastern oil to China both disrupted in the midst of the US-Israel war on Iran and conflicts in the wider region. With access to Russian and Iranian crude also complicated by United States sanctions and other restrictions, Chinese refiners are being forced to search further afield for supplies. That scramble for available barrels is adding to pressure on oil prices, both in China and globally.

With China increasingly forced to compete for replacement supplies – risking pushing prices still higher – restoring oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked, has become a pressing economic and diplomatic priority for Beijing ahead of talks between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, say analysts. The meeting follows talks in Beijing on Wednesday between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.

“What is happening in the Middle East is not good for China,” energy analyst Marc Ayoub told Al Jazeera. “China is in a critical situation,” he said, with refiners increasingly “looking into the market for players outside of Hormuz”.

China helped absorb the first oil shock

Before the war, China was importing roughly 12 million barrels of crude a day and producing another 4.4 million barrels domestically, Reuters reported. It was buying more oil than its refineries needed, allowing Beijing to funnel some of the surplus into vast stockpiles that had grown to an estimated 1.4 billion barrels by the end of last year.

That helped cushion the impact on the wider oil market. As the world’s largest crude importer, China’s decision to buy fewer barrels removed demand at precisely the moment global supplies were being squeezed.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera, “It lies in their interests that this conflict the United States started does not lead to a global recession.”

“But that [China importing less oil] was not done to undermine the Iranians or help the Americans. The Chinese are pursuing their own interest, and their interest is that the rest of the world should not suffer economically, because if that happens it will backfire on China.”

Crude imports averaged just 8.1 million barrels per day in the second quarter – almost 4 million barrels per day, or 32 percent, lower than in the first three months of the year, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

But those buffers are now being eroded, and Ayoub said the turnaround was being driven in part by Beijing’s decision to ease restrictions on refined-fuel exports, which had helped keep refinery activity low earlier in the war. “Independent refiners have started looking again for imports from elsewhere,” he said.

As refiners process more crude and stockpiles are drawn down, China is being pushed back into the market for more barrels. “First, they want to increase production from the refineries, and second, they want to build back their inventories,” Ayoub said.

“So the Chinese are trying to find whatever supplies they can get from the market.”

Where can China turn?

Russia is already China’s largest crude supplier, with much of its oil reaching China without passing through the maritime chokepoints disrupting Middle Eastern exports. Reuters reported that Russia supplied approximately 20 percent of China’s crude imports in 2025.

Russian ESPO crude shipped from the country’s Pacific coast can reach Chinese ports in less than a week, while oil also flows overland through pipelines. Chinese refiners have consequently scrambled for available Russian barrels, snapping up September and October ESPO cargoes unusually quickly, experts say.

US sanctions have complicated those purchases, but not stopped them. China’s seaborne imports from Russia reached 1.68 million barrels per day in August, up from 1.4 million in July and the highest since March, according to Kpler data. China also receives about one million barrels per day of Russian crude through pipelines.

Iran had also provided China with a major source of discounted, sanctioned oil before the war. China bought an estimated 1.4 million barrels per day from Iran last year, but those supplies have been sharply curtailed by the conflict and US efforts to block Iranian exports.

China can also look to producers in Latin America and Africa. Brazil was already among China’s five largest crude suppliers last year, and offered China 1.6 million barrels per day in March 2026. Meanwhile, countries including Venezuela, Angola and the Republic of the Congo have historically supplied Chinese refiners.

But there are limits to how easily those barrels can replace lost Middle Eastern supplies. Crude oil is not completely interchangeable, with Chinese refineries configured to process different grades, while substitutes can differ in density. Venezuelan crude, for example, is generally much heavier than the Russian ESPO crude Chinese refiners have been scrambling to secure.

Distance presents another constraint, with Russian ESPO reaching China in less than a week, while barrels brought across the Atlantic from Brazil, West Africa or elsewhere in the Americas face longer journeys and higher freight costs. And alternative producers have only finite amounts available to sell.

Kpler estimates that additional Russian and Iranian supplies can therefore only partially bridge China’s feedstock gap if disruption to Middle Eastern supplies persists.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is trying to keep China supplied, with Saudi Aramco selling at least four million barrels to China in August. But this is only the equivalent of about 129,000 barrels per day when averaged across August.

How vulnerable is China, really?

China’s biggest vulnerability is the sheer size of the gap between the crude it produces and the amount its refineries process.

China produced about 4.34 million barrels per day in August, while its refineries processed 13.91 million, according to Chinese data cited by Reuters. That left a gap of roughly 9.6 million barrels per day that had to be filled by imports or inventories.

However, China is better placed to curb oil consumption than many other major economies. The rapid expansion of electric vehicles has weakened demand for petrol, while electrification has reduced oil use in other parts of the economy. Domestic crude production has also continued to edge higher.

But there are limits to this, with aviation, heavy transport and China’s vast petrochemical industry remaining heavily dependent on oil. So as China raises refinery output and seeks to replenish the stockpiles that helped shield it from the initial shock, it will still have to compete with other buyers for constrained supplies, adding further pressure to prices.

“For crude in particular, they are looking to get any supply that is available in the market out there,” Ayoub said. “That will add pressure, and that will increase prices more.”

The growing pressure on China’s oil supplies has also increased the stakes for Beijing diplomatically, with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi meeting his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in Beijing on Wednesday, calling on Iran and the United States to return to negotiations and urging all parties to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to safeguard international energy supplies.

The talks came a week before an expected meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump in Washington. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the leaders would continue discussions on Iran and China’s financial ties with Tehran, with Beijing expected to press Washington to return to negotiations and help end the disruption to shipping and stabilise global oil markets.

由于航运中断持续，北京正在动用其庞大的储备并寻找替代原油。

2025年10月30日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普和中国国家主席习近平在韩国釜山金海国际机场举行双边会晤，这是亚太经合组织（APEC）峰会期间的会晤。[图片：路透社/伊芙琳·霍克斯坦]

由于中东石油出口受到越来越多的干扰，中国油价飙升至历史新高。北京方面面临着越来越艰难的平衡挑战，既要确保自身能源供应，又要防止全球油价进一步上涨。

由于霍尔木兹海峡的中断限制了经由海湾的石油出口，沙特阿拉伯被迫关闭了一条关键输油管道。这条管道曾是向中国和其他亚洲市场输送石油的重要通道。这条输油管道将原油输送至阿拉伯半岛和红海，此前，一个伊朗支持的武装组织在伊拉克发动袭击，导致该管道关闭。

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这条通道的关闭导致中东石油输往中国的两条重要通道均被中断，而这正值美以对伊朗的战争以及更广泛地区冲突之际。由于美国制裁和其他限制措施也使得获取俄罗斯和伊朗原油变得更加困难，中国炼油商被迫在更远的地方寻找供应来源。这种对可用原油的争夺加剧了中国乃至全球油价的压力。

分析人士指出，由于中国被迫日益激烈地争夺替代供应——这有可能进一步推高油价——恢复伊朗实际封锁的霍尔木兹海峡的石油运输，已成为北京在习近平主席与美国总统特朗普会谈前夕的一项紧迫的经济和外交要务。此次会晤是在周三中国外交部长王毅与伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇在北京举行会谈之后进行的。

能源分析师马克·阿尤布告诉半岛电视台：“中东局势对中国不利。” 他说：“中国正处于危急关头”，炼油商正越来越多地“将目光投向霍尔木兹海峡以外的市场”。

中国帮助缓解了第一次石油危机。

据路透社报道，战前中国每天进口约1200万桶原油，国内产量为440万桶。中国的石油进口量超过了炼油厂的实际需求，这使得北京能够将部分剩余原油储存在庞大的原油库存中，截至去年年底，库存量估计已达14亿桶。

这有助于缓解对整个石油市场的影响。作为全球最大的原油进口国，中国减少原油购买的决定恰好在全球供应趋紧之际降低了需求。

昆西负责任治国研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕尔西告诉半岛电视台：“美国挑起的这场冲突不会导致全球经济衰退，这符合他们的利益。”

“但中国减少石油进口并非为了削弱伊朗或帮助美国。中国人是在追求自身利益，他们的利益在于不希望世界其他国家遭受经济损失，因为如果这种情况发生，最终会反噬中国。”

据美国能源信息署（EIA）的数据显示，第二季度原油进口量平均每天仅为 810 万桶，比今年前三个月减少了近 400 万桶/日，降幅达 32%。

但这些缓冲作用正在逐渐消失。阿尤布表示，这种转变部分是由于北京决定放宽成品油出口限制，而这些限制在战争初期曾帮助抑制了炼油厂的运转。“独立炼油商已经开始重新寻求从其他地方进口成品油，”他说道。

随着炼油厂加工原油量增加，库存下降，中国正被迫重返市场，寻求更多原油。“首先，他们希望提高炼油厂的产量；其次，他们希望恢复库存，”阿尤布说。

“所以中国人正在想方设法从市场上获取一切可能的物资。”

中国还能往哪里走？

俄罗斯已经是中国最大的原油供应国，其大部分石油无需经过阻碍中东石油出口的海上咽喉要道即可运抵中国。路透社报道称，到2025年，俄罗斯将供应中国约20%的原油进口量。

俄罗斯太平洋沿岸的ESPO原油可在不到一周的时间内运抵中国港口，此外，石油还可通过陆路管道运输。专家表示，因此，中国炼油商争相抢购俄罗斯原油，9月和10月的ESPO原油货物被异常迅速地抢购一空。

美国制裁使这些采购变得复杂，但并未阻止。据Kpler的数据显示，8月份中国从俄罗斯海运进口原油量达到每日168万桶，高于7月份的140万桶，为3月份以来的最高水平。此外，中国还通过管道每天进口约100万桶俄罗斯原油。

战前，伊朗曾是中国重要的低价受制裁石油来源。据估计，中国去年每天从伊朗购买约140万桶石油，但由于冲突和美国封锁伊朗出口的举措，这些供应已大幅减少。

中国还可以将目光投向拉丁美洲和非洲的产油国。巴西去年已跻身中国五大原油供应国之列，并承诺在2026年3月向中国供应每日160万桶原油。与此同时，委内瑞拉、安哥拉和刚果共和国等国历来都是中国炼油厂的原油供应国。

但这些原油很难轻易替代中东地区损失的供应。原油并非完全可以互换，中国炼油厂的加工设备是针对不同等级的原油，而且替代品的密度也可能不同。例如，委内瑞拉原油通常比中国炼油厂一直在努力获取的俄罗斯ESPO原油重得多。

距离是另一个制约因素，俄罗斯ESPO原油不到一周就能运到中国，而从巴西、西非或美洲其他地区跨大西洋运输的原油则需要更长的运输时间和更高的运费。此外，其他生产商的原油供应量也有限。

克普勒估计，如果中东供应中断持续下去，俄罗斯和伊朗的额外供应只能部分弥补中国的原料缺口。

与此同时，沙特阿拉伯正努力保障中国的石油供应，沙特阿美8月份至少向中国出售了400万桶原油。但若按8月份平均计算，这仅相当于每天约12.9万桶。

中国究竟有多脆弱？

中国最大的弱点在于其原油产量与其炼油厂加工量之间存在巨大差距。

据路透社援引中国官方数据报道，中国8月份原油日产量约为434万桶，炼油厂加工量为1391万桶。这意味着每日约有960万桶的缺口，需要通过进口或库存来填补。

然而，与其他许多主要经济体相比，中国更有能力控制石油消费。电动汽车的快速普及削弱了对汽油的需求，而电气化也减少了经济其他领域的石油使用。国内原油产量也持续小幅增长。

但这种做法也有其局限性，航空、重型运输以及中国庞大的石化产业仍然高度依赖石油。因此，尽管中国提高了炼油产量，并试图补充此前帮助其抵御最初冲击的石油库存，但它仍然需要与其他买家争夺有限的供应，这将进一步推高油价。

阿尤布表示：“特别是原油，他们正试图将市场上所有可用的供应都投放市场。这将增加供应压力，并进一步推高价格。”

中国石油供应面临的日益增长的压力也增加了北京在外交上的风险。周三，中国外交部长王毅在北京会见了伊朗外长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇，呼吁伊朗和美国重返谈判桌，并敦促各方重新开放霍尔木兹海峡，以保障国际能源供应。

此次会谈发生在习近平主席与美国总统特朗普在华盛顿举行会晤的前一周。美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，两国领导人将继续讨论伊朗问题以及中国与德黑兰的金融关系，预计北京方面将敦促华盛顿重返谈判桌，以帮助结束航运中断并稳定全球石油市场。