Time for government to tighten its belt as debt ceiling looms as public debt surges from pre Covid era

September 18, 2026 at 10:28 am

in Economy , Living , Politics , Thailand

Thailand is rapidly burning through its financial firepower as public debt hits 67.5% of gross domestic product, close to the 70% ceiling. The country entered Covid-19 near 41%, but much of that borrowing cushion is gone. National Economic and Social Development Council chief Danucha Pichayanan wants two to three years of tight budgets to rebuild it. His warning comes as growth weakens, revenue falls and ageing costs rise. Meanwhile, debt servicing already exceeds ฿400 billion annually, while some projections breach the ceiling by 2028. Thailand can service its debts, but another major shock could hit with Bangkok holding far less room to fight back.

Thailand’s debt hits 67.5% of GDP, nearing its 70% ceiling. Economic planning chief Danucha Pichayanan calls for tight budgets as debt servicing tops ฿400 billion yearly. ( Source: Siam Rath )

Thailand is running short of fiscal room as public debt closes rapidly on the government’s statutory ceiling. The country’s chief economic planner now wants two to three years of tight budgets.

His aim is to rebuild financial capacity before another economic shock arrives. Public debt has reached approximately 67.5% of gross domestic product, against a 70% ceiling. As a result, Thailand has only three to four percentage points of fiscal space remaining.

National Economic and Social Development Council Secretary-General Danucha Pichayanan delivered the warning this week. He spoke at the council’s Macro Seminar 2026 on September 16. Importantly, he did not predict a fiscal crisis within two or three years. Instead, he wants that period used to restore Thailand’s depleted fiscal buffer. Another crisis could otherwise arrive when the government has much less room to borrow.

Thailand’s public debt surges from 41.1% before Covid-19 as revenue falls and spending pressures rise

The contrast with Thailand before Covid-19 is substantial. Public debt then stood at approximately 41.1% of gross domestic product. It has since climbed by more than 26 percentage points. Meanwhile, economic growth remains weak and government revenue has declined relative to national output. Thailand therefore enters the next period of economic uncertainty from a considerably tighter fiscal position.

Mr Danucha identified three major and interconnected pressures. First, public debt has increased rapidly while economic growth remains weak. Second, government revenue has declined relative to the economy. Third, an increasing proportion of expenditure is difficult to reduce. Together, these factors are restricting the government’s freedom to respond to another major economic shock.

Government revenue illustrates the deterioration. Net revenue stood at 16.7% of gross domestic product in fiscal 2016. However, by fiscal 2025, the figure had fallen to approximately 15%. Bangkok is therefore carrying substantially more debt while collecting proportionately less revenue. At the same time, weak economic growth makes the higher debt burden harder to reduce relative to national output.

Meanwhile, pensions, healthcare and welfare commitments are absorbing increasing amounts of public money. Many of these costs cannot easily be cut. Moreover, demographic change means several will continue rising over the coming years. Consequently, approaching the 70% debt ceiling is only one part of Thailand’s fiscal problem. An increasing share of annual expenditure is already committed before governments consider new programmes.

Debt servicing tops ฿400 billion as Danucha calls for two to three years of tighter Thai budgets

Debt servicing adds another substantial burden. Mr Danucha put the annual cost above ฿400 billion. More than ฿200 billion goes towards interest payments, while more than ฿100 billion covers principal repayments. Furthermore, those costs cannot quickly disappear through tighter future budgets. Existing debt remains outstanding and must continue to be serviced for years.

Against that backdrop, Mr Danucha called for another two to three years of fiscal restraint. He also wants unnecessary government expenditure reduced. The fiscal 2027 budget process already indicates the scale of the squeeze. Government agencies faced spending reductions averaging approximately 30–40%. Notably, he also raised the possibility of reducing the government workforce and shifting labour towards private employment.

Mr Danucha also wants available government money used more aggressively to reduce existing debt. He proposed redirecting remaining funds from the 2026 central budget towards additional debt repayments. Therefore, unspent allocations would not automatically finance additional programmes. Instead, available money could reduce outstanding government liabilities and create more space beneath the statutory ceiling.

There is also an international dimension to the proposal. Mr Danucha said additional debt repayments could demonstrate fiscal discipline to global credit-rating agencies. Such action would show that Thailand was actively rebuilding its fiscal position. In parallel, lower outstanding debt would provide greater room for borrowing if another economic emergency occurred.

Danucha urges wider tax base, targeted welfare and tighter scrutiny of loss-making state projects

Yet spending restraint represents only one part of the proposed adjustment. Mr Danucha also wants Thailand to collect more revenue by broadening the tax base. One proposal involves using digital-payment transaction information to identify businesses outside the formal tax system. Those businesses could then be brought into the tax net. The approach would expand taxpayer numbers rather than simply increase existing tax rates.

Separately, state enterprises face closer scrutiny. Mr Danucha called for inefficient or loss-making investment projects to be reviewed. Where necessary, projects could be postponed or cancelled. The objective is to prevent continuing commercial losses from becoming additional government liabilities. Such liabilities would place further pressure on already restricted public finances.

Welfare expenditure is another area targeted for change. Mr Danucha favours directing assistance according to economic need rather than relying extensively on universal programmes. Government databases could also be connected to identify duplicated benefits. As part of this, overlapping payments through separate government schemes could be reduced. Limited public money could then be directed more closely towards intended recipients.

However, Thailand’s demographic position presents a longer-term fiscal problem. The National Economic and Social Development Council expects Thailand to become a super-aged society around 2034. By then, people aged 60 and older could represent approximately 28.4% of the population. Pension, healthcare and welfare costs will consequently rise as the elderly population expands.

Ageing population squeezes Thailand’s tax base as international bodies warn fiscal space is narrowing

At the same time, the working-age population supporting economic output and taxation will shrink. That combination places pressure on both sides of the government’s accounts. Expenditure demands rise while the pool supporting future tax revenue becomes smaller. Therefore, annual departmental cuts alone cannot remove Thailand’s longer-term fiscal pressures.

Mr Danucha consequently wants government expenditure redirected towards areas capable of increasing productivity. He identified education, healthcare, infrastructure and technology among those priorities. Under that approach, less emphasis would fall on repeated short-term economic injections. Instead, more public money would support investments capable of strengthening Thailand’s longer-term economic capacity.

The warning from Thailand’s economic planning agency is not isolated. Earlier this year, the International Monetary Fund reached a broadly similar assessment. It warned that Thailand’s “fiscal space is narrowing”. The Fund assessed sovereign debt-stress risk as moderate rather than high. Nevertheless, it warned about public debt continuing to move towards the country’s fiscal ceiling.

In response, the International Monetary Fund called for fiscal consolidation and stronger government revenue collection. It also supported better-targeted assistance instead of broad spending programmes. Meanwhile, its assessment highlighted the continuing scale of Thailand’s annual budget deficit. The fiscal 2026 budget targeted a deficit of ฿860 billion, equivalent to approximately 4.5% of gross domestic product.

Thailand’s large deficits and rising debt draw fresh warnings as projections approach the 70% ceiling

The combination is important. Thailand’s public debt is approaching its statutory ceiling while the government continues running a substantial annual deficit. Consequently, reducing future deficits is central to stabilising the debt ratio. Continued large deficits would instead require further borrowing and consume more of the remaining fiscal buffer.

More recently, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office delivered another warning. Its assessment of Thailand ran from August 24 until September 4. The regional economic surveillance body also called for Thailand to rebuild fiscal space. Additionally, it recommended credible deficit reductions, stronger revenue collection and more effective government expenditure.

However, the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office also stressed the need to protect important investment projects. The Bank of Thailand published its assessment on September 7. Thus, three major economic bodies have recently focused on Thailand’s shrinking fiscal room. Their recommendations differ in detail, but their assessments point towards similar pressures.

Thailand’s own medium-term projections show how narrow the margin has become. Public debt was projected at 65.1% of gross domestic product in fiscal 2025. For fiscal 2026, the ratio was projected to rise to 68.2%. Thereafter, it reaches 69.4% during fiscal 2027 and 69.8% during fiscal 2028.

Fiscal consolidation becomes critical as emergency borrowing pushes Thailand closer to its debt ceiling

At 69.8%, only 0.2 percentage points would remain beneath the statutory ceiling. The official projections subsequently show a gradual improvement. Public debt eases to 69.5% during fiscal 2029 and 68.2% during fiscal 2030. However, that improvement depends heavily on future governments reducing annual budget deficits.

The government’s projected deficit path is therefore crucial. The fiscal deficit was put at 4.4% of gross domestic product during fiscal 2026. It was then expected to decline to 3.9% during 2027 and 3.3% during 2028. By fiscal 2029, the projected deficit falls to 2.7%.

In effect, staying beneath the existing debt ceiling already assumes substantial fiscal consolidation. Failure to deliver those deficit reductions would change the projected debt path. Moreover, weaker-than-expected economic growth could independently push the debt ratio higher. The government’s margin is therefore sensitive to both spending decisions and economic performance.

Emergency borrowing approved earlier this year has tightened the position further. In May, the government approved borrowing of up to ฿400 billion following the energy crisis. Public debt had stood at approximately ฿12.59 trillion in February. At that point, it represented approximately 66.07% of gross domestic product.

Emergency borrowing and weaker growth threaten to push Thailand’s public debt through the 70% ceiling

Full use of the emergency borrowing was estimated to push the ratio to approximately 68.18%. Accordingly, one borrowing programme could consume more than two percentage points of fiscal space. Government calculations surrounding the measure produced an even tighter projection for fiscal 2027. Public debt was estimated to reach approximately 69.88% of gross domestic product.

That figure would leave only 0.12 percentage points beneath the present ceiling. By comparison, Thailand entered the Covid-19 period with public debt around 41% of national output. The difference illustrates how much of the country’s previous borrowing buffer has disappeared.

Fiscal-risk assessments have produced even tighter scenarios. One baseline scenario reported this summer projected debt at 70.20% of gross domestic product during fiscal 2028. It then put public debt at approximately 70.37% during fiscal 2029. Although the ratio subsequently declines, those figures cross the existing statutory ceiling.

Those projections are also worse than the government’s official medium-term fiscal framework. However, economic growth plays a critical role in both sets of calculations. Public debt is measured against the size of Thailand’s economy. Therefore, weaker growth can increase the ratio without any unexpected surge in government borrowing.

Weak growth, larger deficits and rising debt leave Thailand with far less fiscal room than before Covid

By contrast, stronger expansion increases the economic base against which public debt is measured. Yet Thailand’s potential growth has weakened. Consequently, the country cannot comfortably depend on rapid economic expansion to reduce its debt burden. Fiscal adjustment must therefore carry more of the pressure.

Thailand is now dealing with several constraints simultaneously. Public debt is elevated while annual government deficits remain substantial. Economic growth remains weak, while government revenue has declined relative to national output. Alongside this, ageing-related expenditure is increasing and existing debt already costs more than ฿400 billion annually to service.

The Thailand Development Research Institute has separately documented the scale of the fiscal change. Between 2015 and 2019, public debt averaged 41.8% of gross domestic product. However, between 2021 and 2024, that average had risen to 61.1%. Fiscal deficits also widened substantially between those periods.

Deficits averaged approximately 2.6% of gross domestic product between 2015 and 2019. During 2021–2024, the average increased to 4.1%. Thailand therefore emerged from the pandemic period carrying substantially more debt and larger annual deficits. At the same time, underlying economic growth remained weak.

Thailand can service its debt but Danucha warns the government’s fiscal freedom is rapidly disappearing

Despite those pressures, neither Mr Danucha nor international institutions are describing an immediate sovereign debt crisis. Thailand remains capable of servicing its public debt. A substantial proportion of government borrowing is domestically financed and denominated in baht. Furthermore, Thailand maintains substantial foreign exchange reserves and a current-account cushion.

The International Monetary Fund therefore assesses Thailand’s sovereign debt-stress risk as moderate rather than high. International credit-rating agencies also maintain Thailand’s investment-grade sovereign ratings. S&P reaffirmed Thailand’s BBB+ sovereign rating in June 2026 and maintained a stable outlook.

The agency cited Thailand’s external position and economic fundamentals among factors supporting the rating. Meanwhile, Moody’s has maintained Thailand’s Baa1 sovereign rating. In April, it restored the country’s outlook from negative to stable. Thailand’s immediate problem is therefore not an inability to service its government debt.

Instead, Mr Danucha’s concern centres on the rapid loss of fiscal freedom. Before Covid-19, public debt stood at approximately 41.1% of gross domestic product. Today, he puts the figure at approximately 67.5%. More than 26 percentage points now separate Thailand’s pre-pandemic position from its current debt burden.

Meanwhile, the statutory ceiling remains 70%. Yet the government continues to face pressure to support an economy experiencing weak growth. Economic stimulus requires public money and can require additional borrowing. Each large deficit-financed programme can therefore reduce the remaining buffer further.

Emergency loans, debt costs and ageing pressures show how quickly Thailand’s fiscal room is shrinking

The ฿400 billion emergency borrowing approved in May demonstrates how quickly that room can disappear. February debt stood at approximately 66.07% of gross domestic product. Full borrowing was estimated to lift it to approximately 68.18%. One government calculation then put fiscal 2027 debt at 69.88%.

Separately, the fiscal-risk scenario puts Thailand above 70% during fiscal 2028 and 2029. At the same time, government revenue has weakened relative to the economy. Net revenue has fallen from 16.7% of output in fiscal 2016 to approximately 15% in fiscal 2025.

Debt servicing compounds the pressure. More than ฿400 billion is already required annually. Over ฿200 billion goes towards interest, while more than ฿100 billion covers principal repayments. Those commitments consume budget resources before new programmes or another emergency are considered.

Demographics add another layer. By around 2034, approximately 28.4% of Thailand’s population could be aged 60 or older. Pension, healthcare and welfare demands will therefore increase. At the same time, the working-age population supporting growth and taxation will decline.

Danucha calls for restraint as official debt projections leave Thailand with almost no room below ceiling

Taken together, those numbers explain Mr Danucha’s call for immediate restraint. Debt is substantially higher than before Covid-19, while annual deficits remain large. Revenue is proportionately lower and economic growth remains weak. Meanwhile, long-term expenditure commitments continue rising.

Official projections still show Thailand remaining beneath the current 70% debt ceiling. However, several leave almost no margin. The medium-term framework puts debt at 69.8% during fiscal 2028. Another calculation puts it at 69.88% during fiscal 2027.

Beyond that, a separate fiscal-risk scenario crosses 70% during fiscal 2028 and 2029. Consequently, the financial cushion available to future governments has narrowed sharply. Another large shock would arrive against a very different fiscal backdrop from Covid-19.

Mr Danucha’s proposed response therefore covers spending, debt, taxation and public-sector reform. He wants tight budgets maintained for another two to three years. Unnecessary expenditure would be reduced, while available central-budget money could finance additional debt repayments.

In parallel, the government workforce could be reduced and inefficient state-enterprise investments reviewed. Welfare assistance would become more closely targeted towards economic need. Government databases could also identify duplicated payments across separate schemes.

Tax reform and productivity spending form final parts of Danucha’s plan to rebuild Thailand’s fiscal room

On the revenue side, digital-payment information could help identify businesses operating outside the tax system. Those businesses could subsequently be brought into the tax base. Meanwhile, public expenditure would increasingly target education, healthcare, infrastructure and technology to support productivity.

Mr Danucha’s warning is not that Thailand cannot service its debts today. Nor did he predict a fiscal crisis within two or three years. Rather, those two or three years are the period he wants used to rebuild fiscal capacity.

Thailand entered Covid-19 with public debt around 41% of gross domestic product. Today, Mr Danucha puts it at approximately 67.5%, against a 70% statutory ceiling. Another major economic shock would therefore hit Thailand with far less borrowing room than it possessed before the pandemic.

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Joseph Anthony is an expat from Ireland who has lived in Thailand for the last decade. He has worked extensively in the media including editorial positions in Ireland and Thailand. He is focused on economic and business stories in Thailand as well as the expat lifestyle.

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2026年9月18日上午10:28

经济、生活、政治、泰国

泰国的财政资源正迅速消耗殆尽，公共债务已占国内生产总值（GDP）的67.5%，接近70%的上限。新冠疫情爆发前，泰国的公共债务占GDP的比重约为41%，但当时的借贷缓冲已所剩无几。国家经济和社会发展委员会主席达努查·皮查亚南（Danucha Pichayanan）希望通过两到三年的紧缩预算来重建财政。他的警告是在经济增长放缓、财政收入下降和老龄化成本上升的情况下发出的。与此同时，泰国每年的偿债支出已超过4000亿泰铢，一些预测显示，到2028年，这一数字将突破上限。泰国目前尚能偿还债务，但如果再次遭受重大冲击，曼谷的应对空间将大大缩小。

泰国债务占GDP的比重已达67.5%，逼近70%的上限。经济规划部长达努查·皮查亚南呼吁严格控制预算，因为每年的偿债支出超过4000亿泰铢。（来源：暹罗快讯）

泰国财政空间日益紧张，公共债务正迅速逼近政府的法定上限。该国首席经济规划师希望未来两到三年内实行严格的预算。

他的目标是在下一次经济冲击到来之前重建财政能力。公共债务已达到国内生产总值的约67.5%，而上限为70%。因此，泰国仅剩下三到四个百分点的财政空间。

泰国国家经济和社会发展委员会秘书长达努查·皮查亚南本周发出警告。他于9月16日在该委员会举办的2026年宏观经济研讨会上发表了讲话。值得注意的是，他并未预测未来两三年内会出现财政危机。相反，他希望利用这段时间恢复泰国已消耗殆尽的财政缓冲。否则，当政府的借贷空间大幅缩减时，另一场危机可能会再次爆发。

由于财政收入下降和支出压力上升，泰国公共债务占比从新冠疫情前的41.1%飙升。

与新冠疫情爆发前相比，泰国的现状发生了显著变化。当时，公共债务约占国内生产总值的41.1%，而此后这一比例已攀升超过26个百分点。与此同时，经济增长依然疲软，政府收入占国民生产总值的比例也有所下降。因此，泰国在财政状况明显趋紧的情况下，即将进入下一个经济不确定时期。

达努查先生指出了三大相互关联的压力。首先，公共债务迅速增长，而经济增长依然疲软。其次，政府收入相对于经济增长有所下降。第三，支出占比不断上升，且难以削减。这些因素共同限制了政府应对另一次重大经济冲击的灵活性。

政府财政收入的变化凸显了这一恶化趋势。2016财年，净财政收入占国内生产总值的16.7%。然而，到2025财年，这一数字已降至约15%。因此，曼谷背负的债务大幅增加，而财政收入占比却相应下降。与此同时，疲软的经济增长使得相对于国民产出而言，更高的债务负担更难降低。

与此同时，养老金、医疗保健和福利支出正消耗越来越多的公共资金。其中许多支出难以削减。此外，人口结构变化意味着未来几年其中一些支出还将继续增长。因此，接近70%的债务上限仅仅是泰国财政问题的一部分。在政府考虑新项目之前，越来越多的年度支出份额已经确定。

债务偿还额超过4000亿泰铢，达努查呼吁泰国政府在未来两到三年内收紧预算。

偿债支出又加重了另一项沉重负担。达努查先生估计，每年的偿债成本超过4000亿泰铢。其中超过2000亿泰铢用于支付利息，超过1000亿泰铢用于偿还本金。此外，即使未来预算收紧，这些成本也无法迅速消除。现有债务依然存在，必须继续偿还多年。

在此背景下，达努查先生呼吁再实行两到三年的财政紧缩政策。他还希望削减不必要的政府开支。2027财年的预算编制过程已经表明了财政紧缩的程度。政府机构的支出平均削减幅度约为30%至40%。值得注意的是，他还提出了缩减政府雇员规模并将劳动力转移到私营部门的可能性。

达努查先生还希望政府更积极地利用现有资金来减少现有债务。他提议将2026年中央预算的剩余资金用于偿还更多债务。因此，未使用的拨款不会自动用于其他项目。相反，可用资金可以用于减少未偿政府债务，并在法定上限以下腾出更多空间。

该提议也具有国际意义。达努查先生表示，额外偿还债务可以向全球信用评级机构展现泰国的财政纪律。此举将表明泰国正在积极重建其财政状况。同时，较低的未偿债务将为应对可能发生的另一场经济危机提供更大的借贷空间。

达努查呼吁扩大税基，提供有针对性的福利，并加强对亏损的国有项目的审查。

然而，控制支出只是拟议调整方案的一部分。达努查先生还希望泰国通过扩大税基来增加财政收入。其中一项提议是利用数字支付交易信息来识别那些游离于正规税收体系之外的企业。这些企业随后可以被纳入税收体系。这种方法旨在扩大纳税人数量，而不是简单地提高现有税率。

此外，国有企业也面临更严格的审查。达努查先生呼吁对效率低下或亏损的投资项目进行审查。必要时，可以推迟或取消项目。其目的是防止持续的商业亏损演变为额外的政府债务。此类债务将进一步加剧本已捉襟见肘的公共财政压力。

福利支出是另一个需要改革的领域。达努查先生倾向于根据经济需求提供援助，而不是过度依赖普惠性项目。政府数据库也可以联网，以识别重复发放的福利。通过这种方式，可以减少不同政府项目之间的重叠支付。这样，有限的公共资金就能更精准地用于真正需要帮助的人身上。

然而，泰国的人口结构带来了一个长期的财政问题。国家经济和社会发展委员会预计，泰国将在2034年左右进入超老龄化社会。届时，60岁及以上人口可能占总人口的28.4%左右。随着老年人口的增长，养老金、医疗保健和福利支出也将相应增加。

人口老龄化挤压泰国税基，国际机构警告称财政空间正在收窄。

与此同时，支撑经济产出和税收的劳动年龄人口将会减少。这种双重压力会同时作用于政府收支两方面。支出需求不断增长，而支撑未来税收的资金池却在萎缩。因此，仅靠年度部门预算削减无法消除泰国长期的财政压力。

因此，达努查先生希望政府支出重新分配到能够提高生产力的领域。他指出，教育、医疗、基础设施和技术是优先发展领域。在这种方针下，政府将减少对短期经济刺激措施的依赖，转而将更多公共资金用于支持能够增强泰国长期经济实力的投资。

泰国经济规划机构的警告并非孤例。今年早些时候，国际货币基金组织也做出了大致类似的评估。该组织警告称，泰国的“财政空间正在收窄”。基金组织将泰国的主权债务压力风险评估为中等而非高。尽管如此，基金组织仍警告称，公共债务将继续逼近该国的财政上限。

对此，国际货币基金组织呼吁泰国进行财政整顿，并加强政府税收征管。该组织还支持采取更有针对性的援助措施，而非大范围的支出计划。同时，其评估报告强调了泰国年度预算赤字持续居高不下的问题。2026财年预算目标赤字为8600亿泰铢，约占国内生产总值的4.5%。

泰国巨额赤字和不断攀升的债务引发了新的警告，预计赤字率将接近70%的上限。

这一组合至关重要。泰国公共债务正逼近法定上限，而政府却持续出现巨额年度赤字。因此，降低未来赤字对于稳定债务比率至关重要。相反，持续的巨额赤字将需要进一步借贷，并消耗更多剩余的财政缓冲。

最近，东盟与中日韩宏观经济研究办公室再次发出警告。该机构对泰国的经济评估从8月24日持续到9月4日。该区域经济监督机构呼吁泰国重建财政空间，并建议合理削减赤字、加强税收征管和提高政府支出效率。

然而，东盟与中日韩宏观经济研究办公室也强调了保护重要投资项目的必要性。泰国央行于9月7日发布了评估报告。因此，近期三大经济机构都关注了泰国日益萎缩的财政空间。尽管他们的建议在细节上有所不同，但评估结果都指向了类似的压力。

泰国自身的中期预测显示，财政与消费之间的差距已经变得非常小。预计到2025财年，公共债务占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例将达到65.1%。2026财年，这一比例预计将上升至68.2%。此后，到2027财年将达到69.4%，到2028财年将达到69.8%。

随着紧急借贷使泰国债务逼近上限，财政整顿变得至关重要。

公共债务比率为69.8%，仅比法定上限低0.2个百分点。官方预测显示，情况随后将逐步改善。公共债务比率将在2029财年降至69.5%，并在2030财年降至68.2%。然而，这一改善在很大程度上取决于未来政府能否降低年度预算赤字。

因此，政府对财政赤字的预测路径至关重要。2026财年财政赤字预计占国内生产总值的4.4%。预计2027财年将降至3.9%，2028财年将降至3.3%。到2029财年，预计赤字将降至2.7%。

实际上，维持在现有债务上限以下本身就意味着要进行大幅度的财政整顿。如果未能实现这些赤字削减目标，将会改变预期的债务路径。此外，经济增长弱于预期本身也可能推高债务比率。因此，政府的财政自由度对支出决策和经济表现都非常敏感。

今年早些时候批准的紧急借款进一步加剧了财政困境。5月份，政府在能源危机后批准了高达4000亿泰铢的借款。2月份，公共债务约为12.59万亿泰铢，约占当时国内生产总值的66.07%。

紧急借贷和经济增长放缓有可能使泰国公共债务突破70%的上限。

据估计，紧急借款若全部使用，将使该比例推高至约68.18%。因此，一项借款计划就可能消耗超过两个百分点的财政空间。政府围绕该措施进行的计算得出，对2027财年的预测更为严峻。公共债务预计将达到国内生产总值的约69.88%。

这一数字仅比目前的上限低0.12个百分点。相比之下，泰国在新冠疫情爆发前，公共债务约占国民生产总值的41%。这一差异表明，该国此前的借贷缓冲能力已大幅下降。

财政风险评估得出了更为严峻的预测情景。今年夏季公布的一项基准情景预测，2028财年债务占国内生产总值（GDP）的比例将达到70.20%。随后，该情景预测2029财年公共债务占GDP的比例将达到约70.37%。尽管这一比例随后有所下降，但这些数字仍然超过了现有的法定上限。

这些预测也比政府官方的中期财政框架更为糟糕。然而，经济增长在这两组计算中都起着至关重要的作用。公共债务是根据泰国经济规模来衡量的。因此，经济增长放缓会导致这一比率上升，而无需政府借贷出现任何意外激增。

经济增长乏力、财政赤字扩大和债务不断攀升，使得泰国的财政空间远小于新冠疫情爆发前。

相比之下，更强劲的经济扩张会扩大衡量公共债务的经济基础。然而，泰国的潜在增长已经放缓。因此，泰国不能仅仅依靠经济快速扩张来减轻债务负担。财政调整必须承担更大的压力。

泰国目前面临多重制约。公共债务居高不下，政府年度赤字依然巨大。经济增长乏力，政府收入占国民产出的比重下降。与此同时，与人口老龄化相关的支出不断增加，现有债务的年度偿债成本已超过4000亿泰铢。

泰国发展研究院已单独记录了财政变化的规模。2015年至2019年间，公共债务平均占国内生产总值的41.8%。然而，2021年至2024年间，这一平均值已升至61.1%。在此期间，财政赤字也大幅扩大。

2015年至2019年间，泰国财政赤字平均约为国内生产总值的2.6%。2021年至2024年，这一平均值上升至4.1%。因此，疫情过后，泰国背负了更多债务，年度赤字也大幅增加。与此同时，其经济增长依然疲软。

泰国有能力偿还债务，但达努查警告说，政府的财政自由正在迅速消失。

尽管面临这些压力，但无论是达努查先生还是国际机构，都没有将泰国列为迫在眉睫的主权债务危机。泰国仍然有能力偿还其公共债务。政府借款的很大一部分是在国内融资，并以泰铢计价。此外，泰国还拥有充足的外汇储备和经常账户缓冲。

因此，国际货币基金组织将泰国的主权债务压力风险评估为中等而非高。国际信用评级机构也维持泰国的投资级主权评级。标普于2026年6月重申了泰国的BBB+主权评级，并维持稳定展望。

该机构指出，泰国的外部状况和经济基本面是支撑其评级的因素之一。与此同时，穆迪维持了泰国Baa1的主权信用评级。今年4月，穆迪将泰国的评级展望从负面调整为稳定。因此，泰国眼下的问题并非无力偿还政府债务。

相反，达努查先生担忧的是财政自由的迅速丧失。新冠疫情爆发前，泰国公共债务约占国内生产总值的41.1%。如今，他估计这一数字约为67.5%。泰国目前的债务负担与疫情前的水平相比，差距超过26个百分点。

与此同时，法定上限仍维持在70%。然而，政府持续面临压力，需要支持增长乏力的经济增长。经济刺激计划需要公共资金，并可能需要额外借贷。因此，每一项大规模的赤字融资计划都可能进一步减少剩余的缓冲资金。

紧急贷款、债务成本和人口老龄化压力表明，泰国的财政空间正在迅速萎缩。

5月份批准的4000亿泰铢紧急借款表明，这部分资金空间可能很快就会被耗尽。2月份的债务约占国内生产总值的66.07%。据估计，全部借款将使这一比例上升至约68.18%。政府的一项计算则预测，2027财年的债务将达到69.88%。

此外，财政风险情景预测泰国在2028财年和2029财年期间的财政支出将超过70%。与此同时，政府收入相对于经济而言有所下降。净收入占产出的比重已从2016财年的16.7%下降至2025财年的约15%。

偿债压力加剧了财政困境。每年所需资金已超过4000亿泰铢，其中超过2000亿泰铢用于支付利息，超过1000亿泰铢用于偿还本金。在考虑新项目或其他紧急情况之前，这些债务支出就已经消耗了大量预算资源。

人口结构变化又增添了一层复杂性。到2034年左右，泰国约有28.4%的人口可能达到或超过60岁。因此，养老金、医疗保健和福利需求将会增加。与此同时，支撑经济增长和税收的劳动年龄人口将会减少。

达努查呼吁各方保持克制，因为官方债务预测显示，泰国几乎没有回旋余地。

综合来看，这些数字解释了达努查先生为何呼吁立即采取克制措施。债务水平远高于新冠疫情爆发前，而年度赤字依然巨大。财政收入相应下降，经济增长依然疲软。与此同时，长期支出承诺仍在持续增加。

官方预测显示，泰国目前的债务水平仍低于70%的上限。然而，一些预测几乎没有留下任何缓冲空间。中期框架预测，到2028财年，泰国的债务水平将达到69.8%。另一项计算则显示，到2027财年，这一数字将达到69.88%。

此外，另一项财政风险情景预测，2028财年至2029财年间，财政风险发生概率将超过70%。因此，未来各国政府可用的财政缓冲空间已大幅缩减。而另一次重大冲击，其财政背景将与新冠疫情截然不同。

因此，达努查先生提出的应对方案涵盖支出、债务、税收和公共部门改革。他希望在未来两到三年内维持严格的预算。不必要的支出将被削减，而可用的中央预算资金可用于偿还额外的债务。

与此同时，政府工作人员数量可以减少，低效的国有企业投资项目也可以进行审查。福利援助将更加精准地满足经济需求。政府数据库还可以识别不同项目中的重复支付。

税制改革和提高生产力支出是达努查重建泰国财政空间计划的最后几个组成部分。

在税收方面，数字支付信息有助于识别那些游离于税收体系之外的企业。这些企业随后可以被纳入税基。与此同时，公共支出将越来越多地用于教育、医疗、基础设施和技术，以提升生产力。

达努查先生的警告并非泰国目前无力偿还债务，他也并未预测两三年内会出现财政危机。相反，他希望利用这两三年时间重建财政能力。

泰国在新冠疫情爆发前，公共债务约占国内生产总值的41%。如今，达努查先生估计这一比例约为67.5%，而法定上限为70%。因此，如果再次发生重大经济冲击，泰国的借贷空间将远小于疫情前。

泰国加入针对大型跨国公司的最低税收制度，以此融入全球网络

泰国对小型外国投资者的严格限制对其雄心勃勃的经合组织入盟目标构成重大障碍。

新的反向所得税制度将彻底改变泰国经济。泰国所有居民都必须申报收入。

普拉查特党领导人警告称，由于税收收入下降和债务增加，公共财政面临严重危机。

泰国推进负所得税政策，扩大申报范围，税收和福利制度迎来革命性变革。

经济专家们对2027年负所得税计划表示赞赏。这将是推动经济进步的变革性举措。

为泰政府正力推逆向税收计划，这将带来巨大的经济变革，因为该政府正在与……作斗争。

专家警告：外国游客已成为泰国的祸根，加剧了经济停滞和普遍的萎靡不振。

一切如常，毫无意外。泰国外国旅游业人士警告称，今年将是糟糕的一年，入境游客人数下降了6.56%。

旅游局局长驳斥了有关台湾游客的歪曲报道，称诈骗中心正在实施新的、更安全的秩序。

旅游局长计划在2025年下半年吸引更多欧洲游客，同时内阁下令缩短签证期限。

特朗普的关税政策使泰国经济陷入混乱。到2025年，出口和旅游业可能都会大幅下滑。

由于中美紧张局势升级，皮查伊的团队本周不会飞往美国，而是下周前往。

约瑟夫·安东尼是一位来自爱尔兰的侨民，过去十年一直居住在泰国。他曾在爱尔兰和泰国的媒体行业担任过编辑职务，拥有丰富的媒体从业经验。他主要关注泰国的经济和商业新闻，以及侨民的生活方式。

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2026年9月11日，在反对党对预算进行审查之际，阿努廷总理将代表泰国前往奥斯陆参加哈拉尔五世国王的葬礼。此次皇家访问使阿努廷与君主和世界各国领导人齐聚一堂。

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2026年9月10日，一名警官在儿子带领下向警方投降，他痛哭流涕，此前一天他刚刚杀害了自己的妻子。幼儿园枪击案以黎明时分的戏剧性投降告终。

2026年9月9日，华欣一名酒店凶手拉提科恩·“萨姆”·阿特金斯被判死刑，此前他因吸毒后神志不清而抢劫并残忍地将一名酒店员工殴打致死。

2026年9月9日，泰国特别调查局（DSI）考虑对芭堤雅一个庞大的以色列人网络展开调查，并考虑发出传票和提出刑事指控。以色列商人迈蒙·大卫·马尔西亚诺（Maimon David Marsiano）面临泰国特别调查局的调查。

2026年9月9日，一名荷兰男子在苏梅岛一家酒吧殴打一名年轻的泰国女子后，经调解达成和解。监控录像显示，该荷兰男子多次殴打一名泰国女子。

一名中国男子于1991年逃往泰国后被捕。该公司在他于2026年9月14日突然倒闭前几周筹集了资金。

泰国经济呈K型波动，许多人为了维持生计不得不减少食物和餐饮开支。（2026年9月14日）

民意调查显示，在当前紧张的政治氛围下，公众对以色列在泰国的不当行为表示担忧 2026年9月14日

前为泰党部长警告欧盟委员会成员，关键投票即将到来，他们可能很快就会受到评判（2026年9月13日）

泰国著名寺院爆出性丑闻和财务丑闻。住持及其女友聚敛巨额财富。2026年9月13日

泰国被誉为退休人士和数字游民的天堂，但官员们却散布疑虑和不确定性 2026年9月12日

商务部长苏帕吉回应桑迪·林通库对新自由投资规则的抨击 2026年9月12日

泰国针对以色列的施压运动与街头抗议活动相结合，势头强劲 2026年9月12日

曼谷一家度假村逮捕了一名银行劫匪。54岁的赛法·卡塞穆特曾有持械抢劫前科。2026年9月12日

前总理兼民主党领袖指出公众对选举委员会缺乏信任 2026年9月11日

2026年9月11日，由于政府查封或冻结超过200亿美元的资产，外国代理公司数量下降了81.77%。

阿瑜陀耶寺住持脱去僧袍，此前警方秘密潜伏数月后逮捕了寺庙高级官员 2026年9月10日

资深抗议领袖兼媒体大佬桑迪于2026年9月10日在以色列大使馆前发起街头抗议活动。

泰国部长阿努廷表示，美泰实质性贸易协议有望在阿努廷与特朗普通话后最终敲定（2026年9月10日）

2026年9月9日，芭堤雅一名警察在幼儿园内残忍地枪杀了妻子，随后在家中被警方包围。

泰国准备进入核电时代，计划在2037年前建成两座小型模块化反应堆（2026年9月9日）

受8月份通胀率2.53%的影响，汽油和柴油价格上涨。然而，市场信心预计在2026年9月9日也会上升。

全国范围内的调查目标是超过3.6万家与外国人有关联的土地公司和另外7000家拥有公寓的公司 2026年9月8日

2026年9月8日，一名性交易网络头目因涉嫌儿童色情犯罪活动于周日被警方突袭逮捕。

维权律师呼吁对挪用残疾人彩票收入、为富人谋利的腐败行为采取行动 2026年9月8日

泰国内政部将于2026年9月7日开始执行有关犹太人葬礼和墓地的法律。

国家广播电视和电信委员会（NBTC）内部依然混乱，主席赢得诉诸法庭的权利。委员会成员将于2026年9月7日开始工作。

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