Trump’s claim that ‘almost every item’ is getting cheaper comes up against a damning reality

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The Federal Reserve is raising interest rates to fight inflation that hurts Americans’ pocketbooks, but the move may also make voters feel the pinch in other ways heading into the November election.

There may not be a direct tie between the interest rates set by the Fed and mortgage and auto lending rates. But the Fed’s decision certainly won’t bring down the cost of housing, buying a car or paying off credit card debt. It won’t make it easier for American farmers already contending with record diesel prices and a surge in fertilizer costs to afford increased interest payments, all of which led the USDA this week to forecast a reduction in farm income for the year.

It is also designed to slow down the economy , something voters might not enjoy experiencing if it leads to jobs cuts.

While President Donald Trump opposed the rate hike, he’ll have to answer for any economic impact, even if his war on Iran and tariff policy helped create the inflation that led to it.

Trump has long groused about interest rates and elections.

He complained when rates were raised during his first term . And he complained when they were lowered before the 2024 presidential election . Earlier in his second term Trump publicly fantasized about firing the previous Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, but ultimately let his term as chairman expire and nominated Kevin Warsh, who Trump in January described as coming from “central casting” for the job.

But while the unanimous decision by the Federal Open Markets Committee Wednesday to raise rates will keep Trump at odds with Fed policy, it also shows that Warsh lives in the reality where inflation and higher costs continue to be a problem for the economy as a whole, and not in Trump’s reality, where inflation does not exist.

And Warsh’s Fed is expected to raise interest rates again this year. The next opportunity is in late October, just before Election Day.

At a press conference Wednesday, Warsh acknowledged the reality that Americans feel every day.

“This summer’s inflation readings do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved,” he said, arguing inflation has been hurting the country for five years.

During his convention speech to Republicans last week in Dallas, Trump said “almost every item” is getting cheaper.

After the Fed’s decision Wednesday to raise rates, Trump, without mentioning Warsh, painted a picture of his own reality. He said on social media that rates should be much lower because the US economy is “BOOMING.” And he seemed to reiterate that if rates don’t come down, he’ll try to cut off a large portion of US trade with the rest of the world.

Even Vice President JD Vance seemed to acknowledge in a podcast interview Wednesday that things aren’t exactly going to plan.

“Give us another chance,” Vance said, when asked for his message to voters before November.

The rate cut may be the Fed’s best, and really only, tool available to combat inflation, but it’s a blunt instrument, according to John W. Diamond, director of the Center for Public Finance at the Baker Institute at Rice University.

“That means the rate increase may further slow the weaker parts of the economy, such as housing , while barely affecting the strongest, namely the relentless investment in artificial intelligence,” he wrote for The Conversation .

Trump’s defense of AI development and data centers is another issue that puts him at odds with many voters.

Trump and Republicans harnessed anger over inflation and worries about the economy to send Democrats packing in the 2024 elections.

Now, they have to answer for the fact that the GOP’s two years in power haven’t solved the problem, at least not in the eyes of voters.

Democrats have a clear advantage to retake the House of Representatives, according to a recent New York Times / Siena poll.

Not surprisingly, the economy and inflation were among the top issues cited by registered voters in that poll. The problem for Trump is that he has lost their support on those issues.

Three-quarters of registered voters say the economy is only in fair or poor condition; 73% disapprove of his handling of cost-of-living issues, and 62% disapprove of his handling of the economy in general.

House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, Democrat of New York, might as well have been reading from that New York Times poll when he opened a recent news conference arguing that Trump promised a “golden age,” but delivered a “rotten age.”

“The economy is not going in the right direction, it is failing everyday Americans. Gas prices are up, grocery prices are up, interest rates are up, housing costs are up, and health insurance premiums are up,” Jeffries said.

Those economy numbers have a lot to do with why Democrats feel competitive in Senate races that once seemed safe for Republicans, particularly in heartland states like Kansas and Iowa. Democratic candidates like Rev. Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Josh Turek in Iowa are making populist pledges to focus on housing and energy prices. In Iowa, the Republican candidate Rep. Ashley Hinson is talking in ads about working across the aisle, not a very Trump message.

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

Trump made promises to bring down costs two years ago, but the policies he pursued as president probably aren’t helping inflation.

► Fighting AI regulation has given Big Tech room to spend. Enormous borrowing and spending by AI companies has fueled significant inflation in chip prices, electricity and building supplies.

► Tariffs he promised and defended have made things more expensive. But rather than pull back, Trump is launching a trade war with Canada.

And the actions he has taken to address inflation have often angered his supporters . The Republicans running for Senate in Iowa (Hinson) and Kansas (Sen. Roger Marshall) both channeled ranchers when they expressed frustration with Trump’s decision to import more beef as a way to bring down meat prices.

► His war on Iran has fuel costs rising again. Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen have attacked oil infrastructure in Saudi Arabia. The price of diesel is at a new record, hurting farmers, the trucking industry and ultimately consumers .

► High prices are expected to continue. The Congressional Budget Office set the cost of the war at $38 billion and counting in a report released this week . Perhaps more importantly to American consumers is that CBO expects the war to drive up inflation next year, a bet that fuel prices aren’t coming down any time soon, counter to Trump’s assurances .

► Trump also wants to cut $5,000 checks to every American . His administration is looking for ways to do it without Congress. People would appreciate the check, surely, but it would also drive up prices.

This is the dichotomy of “America First.” Trump wants lower rates. But his presidency is built around a list of policies that, at least on paper, drive up costs.

Trump ultimately turned on his first-term pick for Fed Chair, who he later viewed as a “jerk” for not lowering rates on Trump’s timeline or bowing to Trump’s constant pressure.

Who knows if Trump continues to pressure Warsh to lower rates. In an angry social media post after the Fed’s announcement, Trump said rates should be at 1% rather than targeted between 3.75% and 4% as the Fed made clear.

Mark Schiefelbein/AP

Trump said he did talk to Warsh before the Fed’s meeting.

“I talked to Kevin and I said, ‘you might as well vote with the board because it’s not going to matter.’”

Warsh, as chairman, is but one vote on the Fed board that set rates. But Warsh kept any counsel from Trump private.

“I’ve got nothing for you on a discussion with the president,” he told reporters.

Warsh may yet hold Trump’s trust because at heart he is thought to support rate cuts. It’s just that the economic reality, at the moment, is that prices are rising.

CNN’s David Goldman contributed to this report.

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美联储提高利率是为了对抗损害美国人钱包的通货膨胀，但此举也可能让选民在即将到来的 11 月大选中感受到其他方面的压力。

美联储设定的利率与抵押贷款和汽车贷款利率之间可能没有直接联系。但美联储的决定肯定不会降低住房成本、购车成本或偿还信用卡债务的成本。对于那些已经面临柴油价格创纪录和化肥价格飙升的美国农民来说，这也不会让他们更容易负担增加的利息支出。所有这些因素导致美国农业部本周预测，今年的农业收入将会下降。

它也是为了减缓经济增长，如果导致失业，选民可能并不乐见这种情况。

尽管唐纳德·特朗普总统反对加息，但他仍需对加息带来的任何经济影响负责，即便他对伊朗的战争和关税政策助长了导致加息的通货膨胀。

特朗普长期以来一直抱怨利率和选举问题。

在他第一任期内，加息时他曾抱怨。在2024年总统大选前降息时，他也抱怨过。在第二任期初期，特朗普曾公开幻想解雇前任美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔，但最终还是让鲍威尔的任期届满，并提名凯文·沃什担任主席。特朗普在1月份曾形容沃什是“天生适合这份工作的人选”。

虽然联邦公开市场委员会周三一致决定加息，这将使特朗普继续与美联储的政策相悖，但也表明沃什生活在通货膨胀和成本上升仍然是整体经济问题的现实中，而不是生活在特朗普的现实中，在特朗普的现实中通货膨胀并不存在。

预计沃什领导的美联储今年将再次加息。下一次加息机会将在10月下旬，也就是大选日之前。

沃什在周三的新闻发布会上承认了美国人每天都能感受到的现实。

“今年夏季的通胀数据并没有让我觉得潜在的趋势有了实质性的改善，”他说道，并指出通胀已经对这个国家造成了五年的损害。

上周在达拉斯举行的共和党大会上，特朗普在向共和党人发表讲话时表示，“几乎所有商品”的价格都在下降。

美联储周三决定加息后，特朗普没有提及沃什，而是描绘了一幅他自己眼中的“现实”。他在社交媒体上表示，利率应该低得多，因为美国经济“蓬勃发展”。他还似乎重申，如果利率不下降，他将试图切断美国与世界其他地区的大部分贸易。

就连副总裁 JD Vance 周三在一次播客采访中似乎也承认，事情并没有完全按照计划进行。

“再给我们一次机会吧，”当被问及在11月投票前想对选民说些什么时，万斯说道。

莱斯大学贝克研究所公共财政中心主任约翰·W·戴蒙德表示，降息可能是美联储对抗通胀的最佳（也是唯一）工具，但它是一种粗糙的手段。

“这意味着加息可能会进一步减缓经济中较弱的部分，例如住房，而对最强劲的部分，即人工智能领域的持续投资，几乎没有影响，”他在《对话》杂志上写道。

特朗普对人工智能发展和数据中心的辩护是另一个让他与许多选民产生分歧的问题。

特朗普和共和党人利用民众对通货膨胀的愤怒和对经济的担忧，在 2024 年大选中将民主党人赶下台。

现在，他们必须解释为什么共和党执政两年并没有解决这个问题，至少在选民眼中没有。

根据《纽约时报》/锡耶纳学院最近的一项民意调查，民主党在重新夺回众议院方面具有明显优势。

不出所料，经济和通货膨胀是那次民调中登记选民最关心的问题之一。对特朗普来说，问题在于他已经因为这些问题失去了他们的支持。

四分之三的登记选民表示，经济状况一般或较差；73%的人不赞成他对生活成本问题的处理方式，62%的人不赞成他对整体经济的处理方式。

纽约州民主党众议院少数党领袖哈基姆·杰弗里斯在最近的一次新闻发布会上开场时，似乎就引用了《纽约时报》的民意调查结果，他认为特朗普承诺带来“黄金时代”，但实际上却带来了“糟糕的时代”。

杰弗里斯说：“经济正朝着错误的方向发展，它辜负了普通美国民众。汽油价格上涨，食品杂货价格上涨，利率上涨，住房成本上涨，医疗保险费也上涨了。”

这些经济数据很大程度上解释了为什么民主党人在以往看似稳操胜券的参议院席位争夺战中感到有竞争力，尤其是在堪萨斯州和爱荷华州等中西部州。像堪萨斯州的亚当·汉密尔顿牧师和爱荷华州的乔什·图雷克这样的民主党候选人，都做出了民粹主义的承诺，将重点放在住房和能源价格问题上。而在爱荷华州，共和党候选人、众议员阿什利·欣森在竞选广告中谈到了跨党派合作，这与特朗普的竞选理念截然不同。

Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

特朗普两年前承诺降低物价，但他担任总统期间推行的政策可能并没有帮助抑制通货膨胀。

► 反对人工智能监管反而给了大型科技公司更大的支出空间。人工智能公司的大规模借贷和支出导致芯片价格、电力和建筑材料价格大幅上涨。

► 他承诺并力挺的关税政策导致物价上涨。但特朗普非但没有撤回关税，反而对加拿大发动了贸易战。

他为应对通货膨胀而采取的措施常常激怒了他的支持者。在爱荷华州（辛森）和堪萨斯州（罗杰·马歇尔参议员）竞选参议员的共和党人都曾代表牧场主表达过对特朗普增加牛肉进口以降低肉价的决定的不满。

►他对伊朗的战争导致燃油价格再次上涨。也门胡塞武装（伊朗支持）袭击了沙特阿拉伯的石油基础设施。柴油价格创下新高，损害了农民、卡车运输业以及最终消费者的利益。

► 高物价预计将持续。国会预算办公室本周发布的一份报告显示，这场战争的成本已达380亿美元，而且还在不断攀升。或许对美国消费者而言更重要的是，国会预算办公室预计这场战争将推高明年的通货膨胀，这表明燃油价格短期内不会下降，这与特朗普的保证背道而驰。

► 特朗普还想给每个美国人发放5000美元的支票。他的政府正在寻找绕过国会的方法。人们当然会感谢这笔钱，但这也会推高物价。

这就是“美国优先”政策的矛盾之处。特朗普想要降低利率，但他的总统任期却围绕着一系列政策展开，而这些政策至少在表面上看来会推高成本。

特朗普最终放弃了他第一任期内选择的美联储主席人选，后来认为此人是个“混蛋”，因为他没有按照特朗普的时间表降息，也没有屈服于特朗普的不断施压。

谁也不知道特朗普是否会继续向沃什施压要求降息。在美联储宣布利率决议后，特朗普在社交媒体上愤怒地表示，利率应该维持在1%，而不是像美联储明确表示的那样设定在3.75%到4%的目标区间。

马克·谢费尔贝因/美联社

特朗普表示，在美联储会议召开前，他确实与沃什谈过话。

“我和凯文谈过，我说，‘你最好还是和董事会一起投票，反正结果也不会有什么影响。’”

作为美联储主席，沃什在利率制定委员会中只有一票之差。但他对向特朗普提供的任何建议都秘而不宣。

“关于与总统的讨论，我没有什么可以告诉你们的，”他告诉记者。

沃什或许仍能赢得特朗普的信任，因为人们认为他本质上支持降息。只是目前的经济现实是物价上涨。

CNN的戴维·戈德曼对本报道亦有贡献。