Democrat Aisha Wahab will win Swalwell’s House seat, CNN projects, overcoming millions in AIPAC spending

Democratic state Sen. Aisha Wahab will win the special election runoff to finish former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term in California’s 14th District, CNN’s Decision Desk projects.

In recent weeks, the Bay Area race to replace the former congressman, who resigned amid sexual assault allegations, became another test of Democratic divides over Israel. Super PACs aligned with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee poured millions of dollars into ads attacking the progressive and bolstering her opponent, Democrat Melissa Hernandez, who is president of the Bay Area Rapid Transit Board.

“I’m very proud of this district for not listening to the hate-mongering and really knowing and believing the work that I’ve done,” Wahab told KQED on Tuesday night, after the first votes reported showed her with a slim lead.

Neither candidate focused on Israel in their campaign, but Wahab has called for cutting US military aid to the country and, when asked in a candidate forum, said she believes the war in Gaza constitutes a genocide . Asked the same question during the forum, Hernandez said Israel has a right to defend itself while adding that the “destruction in Gaza has gone too far.”

But ahead of Tuesday’s runoff, AIPAC’s super PAC arm, United Democracy Project, injected nearly $2 million in advertising attacking Wahab and supporting Hernandez into the race, according to AdImpact data, with another $1.9 million coming from BOLD America, a group that also receives funding from AIPAC.

The ad campaigns targeting Wahab largely avoided Middle East policy, instead attacking her record on other issues like public safety. In response, another super PAC called American Priorities, which formed earlier this year to counter AIPAC spending , spent more than $200,000 on ads supporting Wahab.

Still, the influx of outside cash helped transform the state legislator’s significant lead in earlier showdowns into a much tighter race.

In June, Wahab led Hernandez by 26 points in the first round of the special election. Two weeks earlier, Wahab led by 21 points in the primary for a full two-year term; she and Hernandez will have a rematch in November to settle that race.

AIPAC spending has inflamed Democratic primaries this cycle, amid rising anti-Israel sentiment in the party electorate, to mixed results.

Wahab’s win comes two weeks after Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive Democrat and critic of Israel, won a contentious and closely watched primary against a moderate opponent he denounced for her ties to AIPAC . The group spent more than $30 million dollars opposing El-Sayed during the primary and has suggested it could continue to be involved in the general election.

The same night, however, AIPAC-backed Missouri Rep. Wesley Bell handily defeated a firebrand former congresswoman and democratic socialist whom the pro-Israel group helped oust in 2024.

Wahab, the first Muslim elected to California’s Senate, campaigned on making healthcare and childcare more affordable, preventing corporate price-gouging and protecting safety net programs.

She will fill a House seat that has been vacant since Swalwell, also a Democrat, resigned in April amidst allegations of sexual misconduct , including from a former staffer who said he raped her. While Swalwell denied the allegations, key Democrats quickly condemned him, and he soon ended his 13-year congressional career and exited the California governor’s race , where he was a leading candidate.

Wahab will serve in Swalwell’s seat, which represents the area east of San Francisco, until the new Congress is sworn in at the start of 2027. In a narrowly divided House, each additional Democratic seat is valuable to the party as it works to curb the Republican majority. The chamber currently has 218 Republicans and 212 Democrats, with several vacant seats.

CNN 决策台预测，民主党州参议员艾莎·瓦哈布将在特别选举决选中获胜，完成前众议员埃里克·斯瓦尔韦尔在加州第 14 选区的剩余任期。

最近几周，旧金山湾区选出接替因性侵指控辞职的前国会议员的竞选，再次考验了民主党内部在以色列问题上的分歧。与美国以色列公共事务委员会结盟的超级政治行动委员会投入数百万美元投放广告，攻击这位进步派候选人，并支持她的对手、现任旧金山湾区捷运局局长、民主党人梅丽莎·埃尔南德斯。

“我为这个选区感到非常自豪，因为他们没有听信煽动仇恨的言论，而是真正了解并相信我所做的工作，”瓦哈布周二晚上告诉KQED，此前公布的第一批​​选票显示她以微弱优势领先。

两位候选人在竞选期间都没有将重点放在以色列问题上，但瓦哈卜呼吁削减美国对以色列的军事援助，并在一次候选人论坛上被问及此事时表示，她认为加沙战争构成种族灭绝。在同一论坛上，当被问及同样的问题时，埃尔南德斯表示以色列有权自卫，但同时补充说“加沙的破坏已经太过分了”。

但据 AdImpact 数据显示，在周二的决选之前，AIPAC 的超级政治行动委员会“联合民主项目”投入了近 200 万美元的广告资金，攻击瓦哈卜并支持埃尔南德斯；此外，还有 190 万美元来自 BOLD America，该组织也接受 AIPAC 的资助。

针对瓦哈卜的广告宣传活动大多避开了中东政策，而是攻击她在公共安全等其他问题上的记录。作为回应，另一个名为“美国优先事项”（American Priorities）的超级政治行动委员会（该委员会成立于今年早些时候，旨在对抗美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）的支出）花费了超过20万美元用于支持瓦哈卜的广告。

不过，外部资金的涌入使得这位州议员在之前的对决中取得的显著领先优势，转变为一场更加胶着的竞争。

6月，在特别选举的第一轮投票中，瓦哈布领先埃尔南德斯26个百分点。两周前，在争取两年完整任期的初选中，瓦哈布领先21个百分点；她和埃尔南德斯将在11月再次对决，以决出最终胜负。

在本轮选举周期中，由于民主党选民中反以色列情绪日益高涨，AIPAC 的支出加剧了民主党初选的激烈程度，但结果喜忧参半。

瓦哈布的胜选距离密歇根州参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（Abdul El-Sayed）的初选仅两周。埃尔-赛义德是一位进步派民主党人，也是以色列的批评者。他在一场竞争激烈、备受瞩目的初选中击败了一位温和派对手，埃尔-赛义德曾谴责这位对手与美国以色列公共事务委员会（AIPAC）关系密切。AIPAC在初选期间花费了超过3000万美元反对埃尔-赛义德，并暗示可能会继续参与大选。

然而，就在同一晚，AIPAC 支持的密苏里州众议员韦斯利·贝尔轻松击败了一位激进的前国会女议员和民主社会主义者，该亲以色列团体曾帮助她在 2024 年被赶下台。

瓦哈卜是第一位当选加州参议员的穆斯林，他的竞选纲领包括降低医疗保健和儿童保育成本、防止企业哄抬物价以及保护社会保障计划。

她将填补自斯瓦尔韦尔（Swalwell）辞职后一直空缺的众议院席位。斯瓦尔韦尔也是民主党人，他于今年4月因性行为不端指控而辞职，其中包括一名前工作人员指控他强奸了她。尽管斯瓦尔韦尔否认了这些指控，但民主党核心人物迅速谴责了他，他很快结束了长达13年的国会生涯，并退出了加州州长竞选——他曾是该职位的热门候选人。

瓦哈布将接替斯瓦尔韦尔的席位，该席位代表旧金山东部地区，直至2027年初新一届国会宣誓就职。在两党席位接近的众议院，民主党每增加一个席位都至关重要，因为该党正努力遏制共和党的多数优势。目前众议院共有218名共和党议员和212名民主党议员，还有几个空缺席位。