Is Germany’s leader Friedrich Merz doomed as far right wins again?

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Those were the words of a forlorn-looking German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on Sunday evening as he addressed his party in the seconds after regional elections handed his center-right Christian Democrats (CDU) their second and third electoral drubbings in a month.

The elections in the north-eastern region of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the city of Berlin not only reopen the barely healed wounds from the Saxony-Anhalt election on September 6, but have plunged the party to new depths of unpopularity.

Voters are abandoning the CDU –– the party of Angela Merkel and Konrad Adenauer –– in their droves, for the far-right, pro-Russia and anti-migration Alternative for Germany (AfD).

The AfD has once again demonstrated it is a major political force in this country.

On Sunday, Merz ruled out stepping down, saying Germany requires “courage, steadfastness and patience. I will demonstrate these qualities as Chairman of the CDU and, above all, as Chancellor of our country.”

Before Sunday speculation was rife about Merz’s survival. In the aftermath, he is now fighting for his political life.

In Mecklenberg-Vorpommern, the CDU’s prospects of making it into the parliament are hanging by a thread. Needing 5% to reach the threshold, they currently sit at 4.9% on projections.

The party’s previous worst regional election performance in 75 years was 9% in Bremen in 1951.

The AfD is projected to win the election with 38.3% of the vote, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, although it fell far short of a majority. In Berlin it came in third, but saw a 7% increase in its vote share.

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The CDU was the incumbent party in the German capital but has lost its grip on power there to the far-left Die Linke party, which is projected to come out on top. The CDU fell into second place.

Sunday’s results, coupled with the trouncing in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month, heap misery on an already beleaguered Merz. A situation that, some believe, means only one outcome is possible –– a ‘chancellor-swap.”

“This is the worst possible result for Merz and the CDU,” Jana Puglierin, head of the European Council on Foreign Relations’ Berlin office, told CNN as the results were announced.

She said she saw no viable option for Merz to continue to lead the government, adding: “He has definitely lost control over his own party, and he has lost authority big time… and there is no way to reinstall it.”

Following the AfD’s election victory in Saxony-Anhalt, the party’s co-leader, Alice Weidel, declared there would be national elections in Germany before the end of the year. She doubled down on Sunday, saying “the CDU cannot continue with Friedrich Merz, with a weak chancellor.”

With two more elections going against the CDU, and Merz’s popularity plunging, that assessment seems less speculative.

“It’s not like Merz can just throw in the towel, nor does he want to,” Sudha David-Wilp, vice-president and senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund, a think tank, told CNN. “He’s still hanging on, but he’s not out of the woods yet.”

Any such upheaval would have reverberations around Europe. Germany, the EU’s most populous and economically powerful nation, has long stood as a rock of political stability and is a key backer of Ukraine as it fights Russia.

The Christian Democrats have long been the dominant political force in Germany. Of the 10 chancellors since World War II, the party has held the post six times – including a mammoth 16 years under the Angela Merkel.

An opinion poll from September encapsulates Merz’s woes. Levels of dissatisfaction across the country are eye-wateringly bad. Only 13% of Germans are happy with the job he is doing, according to a poll for ARD public television released earlier this month.

David-Wilp told CNN that AfD victories in the elections had been “baked” into the CDU’s political calculus, but the magnitudes of the outcomes were worse than expected.

“There is a feeling in the CDU that something has to happen in order to change the dynamic, because the AfD is on the march and threatening the very existence of the CDU,” she said.

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Whilst the regions that make up the former East Germany are AfD strongholds, Merz’s problem lies in the party’s rise in popularity across the country. In two other state elections this year the AfD doubled its percentage share of the vote, while winning neither.

Nationally, too, opinion polling suggests the AfD would be Germany’s biggest political party were a snap general election to be held now.

Merz arrived in office in May last year promising to halve the AfD’s vote share –– so far the opposite has been true.

Such was the pressure on the chancellor last week that the other CDU state premiers felt it necessary to rally around him. They issued a joint statement Wednesday saying public support comes from “listening” and “political action” not “through personnel debates,” but failed to mention him by name.

Replacing a chancellor mid-term is not uncommon, but a removal under these circumstances is. It would also make Merz the shortest-serving chancellor since reunification. His conservatives and their grand coalition partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), would have to agree on his successor, no easy feat.

For David-Wilp, replacing Merz would “really leave a crisis of leadership when everybody is looking to Berlin for it.”

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Puglierin said that Merz’s ascension to power had been accompanied by hope across Europe that he would restore stability after the disastrous previous coalition led by Olaf Scholz, and would “keep the club together” at a time when the United States under President Donald Trump was ripping up the “Pax Americana” that had underpinned international relations since World War II.

Those hopes could end in disappointment, Puglierin said, “because the country is looking inward… We are struggling with our political system that is no longer functioning the way it has done since the Federal Republic was founded in 1949.”

Merz’s issues began before he even formally had the keys to the chancellery.

It took him two attempts to be officially confirmed as chancellor, an unprecedented scenario. Then he reneged on an election promise not to increase Germany’s borrowing, by unlocking half a trillion dollars of spending for defense and infrastructure.

Puglierin said personal characteristics –– poor communication skills, impulsiveness and a lack of emotional control –– “have put people off him.”

In April, Merz made questionable remarks about Trump’s war in Iran. The chancellor said the US president was being “humiliated” by Iran in efforts to end the war.

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The comments drew the ire of the president, and upended the charm offensive by Berlin toward the White House. Before Merz’s comments, one official had remarked to CNN that they were pleased to have remained one of the few allies who had not been lashed by the sharp-tongue of the US president.

Yet there is also little denying that factors outside of Merz’s control have combined to create roadblocks to progress.

“The geopolitical backdrop of challenges that Germany is facing –– the war against Ukraine, inflation in Germany and energy costs –– all mean the economic model has been overturned in Germany,” said David-Wilp.

“Merz was never a beloved figure, or the first choice to be chancellor,” she added, but outside factors and his “inability to communicate has created a crisis for Berlin.”

Merz may still be saved by the lack of an obvious successor as chancellor and the dire situation his removal would leave the government in.

Neither member of Germany’s two-party coalition government wants it to collapse, said Puglierin, given polling numbers are not in their favor. A new coalition would likely mean a return to a three-party government, a formula which failed spectacularly in recent memory under Olaf Scholz. A repeat of that “won’t solve Merz’s problem(s),” said Puglierin.

The other challenge lies in finding a competent candidate who is ready to take the reins. The name on many people’s lips is that of the 51-year-old governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst.

“He is viewed as the heir apparent in the CDU. He is not a seasoned politician, but he may have to stand up earlier than anticipated,” said David-Wilp.

Wüst, formerly a lawyer, has led North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany’s most populous state and an industrial powerhouse, since 2021. One of the few remaining regions where the CDU has a stable majority, it has its own state election in early 2027.

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Wüst “would be eager to be chancellor one day, but not under these circumstances,” said Puglierin, adding that the election in North Rhine-Westphalia is crucial for the CDU.

“To change horses (in the election) on such short notice is a risky game,” Puglierin said, but added that she believes Wüst is the only candidate the SPD would agree to work with were Merz to be out of the picture.

Wüst, though, has said he wants to focus on winning the state election, and that Merz has his full support.

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这是神情沮丧的德国总理弗里德里希·默茨周日晚间向其党内发表讲话时所说的话。此前，地区选举结果显示，他的中右翼基督教民主联盟（基民盟）在一个月内遭遇了第二次和第三次选举惨败。

梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州东北部地区和柏林市的选举不仅重新揭开了 9 月 6 日萨克森-安哈尔特州选举后尚未愈合的伤口，而且还使该党陷入了前所未有的不受欢迎境地。

选民们正成群结队地放弃安格拉·默克尔和康拉德·阿登纳所在的基民盟，转而支持极右翼、亲俄反移民的德国另类选择党（AfD）。

德国选择党再次证明，它是该国一支重要的政治力量。

周日，默茨排除了辞职的可能性，他说德国需要“勇气、坚定和耐心。我将以基民盟主席的身份，尤其是以我们国家总理的身份，展现这些品质。”

周日之前，关于默茨能否继续执政的猜测甚嚣尘上。事后，他正为自己的政治生涯而战。

在梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州，基民盟能否进入议会的前景岌岌可危。他们需要获得5%的选票才能达到门槛，而根据目前的预测，他们的支持率仅为4.9%。

该党此前75年来最差的地区选举成绩是1951年在不来梅获得的9%的得票率。

德国选择党预计将在梅克伦堡-前波莫瑞州以38.3%的得票率赢得选举，但远未达到多数席位。在柏林，该党位列第三，但得票率上升了7%。

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拉尔夫·赫施伯格/法新社/盖蒂图片社

基民盟原本是德国首都柏林的执政党，但如今已失去对柏林的执政权，极左翼政党左翼党预计将赢得大选。基民盟则跌至第二位。

周日的选举结果，加上本月初在萨克森-安哈尔特州的惨败，让本已处境艰难的默茨雪上加霜。一些人认为，这种情况意味着只有一种可能的结果——“更换总理”。

“这对默茨和基民盟来说是最糟糕的结果，”欧洲对外关系委员会柏林办事处主任雅娜·普格列林在结果公布时告诉CNN。

她表示，她认为默茨没有继续领导政府的可行方案，并补充说：“他肯定已经失去了对自己政党的控制，而且他的权威也大大丧失了……而且没有办法重新夺回他的权力。”

在德国选择党（AfD）赢得萨克森-安哈尔特州选举后，该党联合主席爱丽丝·魏德尔宣布，德国将在年底前举行全国大选。周日，她再次强调：“基民盟不能继续容忍弗里德里希·默茨这样一位软弱的总理。”

鉴于基民盟在接下来的两场选举中均遭遇不利局面，且默茨的支持率大幅下滑，这种评估似乎不再那么具有推测性。

“默茨不可能就此认输，他也不想认输，”德国马歇尔基金会副总裁兼高级研究员苏达·戴维-威尔普告诉CNN。“他仍在坚持，但尚未脱离险境。”

任何此类动荡都将在欧洲产生连锁反应。德国是欧盟人口最多、经济实力最强的国家，长期以来一直是政治稳定的基石，也是乌克兰对抗俄罗斯的关键支持者。

基督教民主联盟长期以来一直是德国的主导政治力量。二战以来，德国共有10位总理，其中6位来自基督教民主联盟，包括安格拉·默克尔长达16年的执政时期。

9月份的一项民意调查凸显了默茨的困境。全国范围内的不满情绪高得惊人。根据德国公共电视台ARD本月早些时候公布的一项民调显示，只有13%的德国人对他的工作感到满意。

戴维-威尔普告诉 CNN，德国选择党在选举中的胜利早已“注定”在基民盟的政治考量之中，但结果的严重程度却比预期的要糟糕。

“基民盟内部有一种感​​觉，必须采取行动来改变这种局面，因为德国选择党正在崛起，威胁着基民盟的生存，”她说。

米歇尔·坦图西/盖蒂图片社

尽管组成前东德的各个地区都是德国选择党（AfD）的传统票仓，但默茨面临的问题在于该党在全国范围内的支持率不断上升。在今年另外两场州选举中，德国选择党的得票率翻了一番，却最终两场选举均告失败。

从全国范围来看，民意调查也表明，如果现在举行提前大选，德国选择党将成为德国最大的政党。

默茨去年五月上任时承诺将德国选择党的得票率减半——但到目前为止，情况恰恰相反。

上周，总理面临的压力如此之大，以至于其他基民盟州长都觉得有必要团结在他周围。他们周三发表联合声明称，公众的支持来自于“倾听”和“政治行动”，而不是“人事辩论”，但声明中并未提及总理的名字。

中途更换总理并不罕见，但在这种情况下被免职却实属罕见。这也将使默茨成为两德统一以来任期最短的总理。他的保守派同僚及其执政联盟伙伴社会民主党（社民党）必须就继任者达成一致，这绝非易事。

对于戴维-威尔普来说，取代梅尔茨“真的会造成领导危机，因为每个人都指望柏林来领导”。

Michael Kappeler/picture-alliance/dpa/AP

普格列林表示，梅尔茨上台时，整个欧洲都寄予厚望，希望他能恢复奥拉夫·朔尔茨领导的灾难性前联合政府的稳定，并在唐纳德·特朗普总统领导下的美国撕毁自二战以来支撑国际关系的“美国治下的和平”之际，“让俱乐部团结在一起”。

普格列林说，这些希望最终可能会令人失望，“因为这个国家正专注于内部事务……我们的政治体制已经不再像1949年联邦共和国成立以来那样运作了。”

梅尔茨的问题在他正式拿到总理府钥匙之前就开始了。

他两次尝试才正式获得总理职位，这在历史上是前所未有的。之后，他又违背了竞选时不增加德国债务的承诺，转而启动了高达五千亿美元的国防和基础设施建设支出。

普格列林表示，他的个人特质——沟通能力差、冲动、缺乏情绪控制——“让人们对他敬而远之”。

今年4月，默茨就特朗普对伊朗发动的战争发表了颇具争议的言论。这位德国总理表示，美国总统在结束这场战争的努力中正受到伊朗的“羞辱”。

克里斯蒂安·芒/路透社

吉姆·沃森/法新社/盖蒂图片社

这些言论激怒了总统，也彻底破坏了柏林对白宫的魅力攻势。在默茨发表评论之前，一位官员曾对CNN表示，他们很高兴自己仍然是少数几个没有被美国总统的尖刻言辞所攻击的盟友之一。

然而，不可否认的是，梅尔茨无法控制的诸多因素共同阻碍了其发展进程。

“德国面临的地缘政治挑战——对乌克兰的战争、德国的通货膨胀和能源成本——都意味着德国的经济模式已经发生了翻天覆地的变化，”戴维-威尔普说道。

她补充说：“默茨从来就不是一个受人爱戴的人物，也不是总理的首选”，但外部因素和他“沟通不畅给柏林带来了危机”。

由于总理一职没有明显的继任者，而且一旦梅尔茨下台，政府将面临严峻的局面，因此梅尔茨或许还能保住职位。

普格利林表示，鉴于民调结果对他们不利，德国两党联合政府的两位成员都不希望政府垮台。组建新的联合政府很可能意味着恢复三党联合政府，而这种模式在奥拉夫·朔尔茨执政时期就以惨败告终。普格利林说，重蹈覆辙“并不能解决默茨的问题”。

另一个挑战在于找到一位能够胜任并准备好掌舵的候选人。许多人都在谈论北莱茵-威斯特法伦州州长亨德里克·伍斯特，他今年51岁。

“他被视为基民盟的接班人。他虽然不是经验丰富的政治家，但他可能不得不比预期更早地站出来，”戴维-威尔普说道。

维斯特曾是一名律师，自 2021 年以来一直领导着德国人口最多的州——北莱茵-威斯特法伦州，该州也是德国的工业重镇。北莱茵-威斯特法伦州是基民盟仍然拥有稳定多数席位的少数几个地区之一，该州将于 2027 年初举行州选举。

Thomas Lohnes/Getty Images

普格列林表示，维斯特“渴望有一天能成为总理，但不是在这种情况下”，并补充说，北莱茵-威斯特法伦州的选举对基民盟至关重要。

“在如此短的时间内更换（选举中的）候选人是一场冒险的游戏，”普格列林说，但她补充说，她相信如果梅尔茨退出竞选，伍斯特是社民党唯一愿意合作的候选人。

不过，维斯特表示他想专注于赢得州选举，并表示他全力支持梅尔茨。