Trump has a ‘sledgehammer’ way to slash diesel prices. But it could boomerang back on the US

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Diesel, the most important fuel on the planet, is so expensive that some Republicans want President Donald Trump to stop exporting it to friends and allies.

“High diesel prices ARE KILLING FARMERS INCOME,” Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley posted on X last week, calling for an “embargo on diesel exports.”

Rep. Tim Burchett, a Tennessee Republican, took to the House floor last week — flanked by a billboard declaring diesel prices are “out of control” —to introduce legislation that would ban diesel exports. Even Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, whose state is home to some of the biggest oil refineries in the world, has called for a 90-day ban on US diesel exports.

Banning US diesel exports might be a tempting way for Trump to show he’s taking action to combat record-shattering diesel prices that are adding to surging costs for Americans.

However, researchers warn that an export ban would likely only provide a temporary reprieve from sky-high diesel prices and would backfire in the medium and long run. They said a ban would likely raise prices on friends and allies, jack up gasoline prices, crush US refiners and damage America’s reputation as a reliable energy superpower.

“This is taking a sledgehammer to the problem,” said Bob McNally, a former energy official in the George W. Bush administration and president of Rapidan Energy Group, this week. “It would be an authentic policy error, or what I call an ‘APE.’ In fact, this would be the king of the APEs.”

The price of diesel — the workhorse fuel that powers the trucks, trains, tractors and ships at the heart of the modern economy — spiked above $6.50 a gallon over the weekend for the first time on record. It’s just pennies away from the highest inflation-adjusted price since 2008.

Diesel prices have surged 83% so far this year, on track for what would easily be the biggest annual increase since AAA started tracking diesel prices in 2000.

Prices have skyrocketed due to a toxic mix of factors: The Iran war has cut off diesel exports from the Middle East, one of the most important regions for diesel. Also, Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out a series of refineries in Russia, the world’s No. 2 diesel exporter. As if that weren’t enough, both Russia and China have imposed export restrictions.

A White House official told CNN on Monday that the administration is not considering an export ban or export restrictions at this time.

Interior Secretary Doug Burgum told CNBC this month that he’s “not at all confident” an export ban would actually lower prices and cautioned it could “actually hurt Americans” in places dependent on imports.

Still, McNally said he believes there is a significant chance the Trump administration will be “tempted” to reach for export restrictions because of high prices.

A diesel export ban could be quite effective at lowering prices — at least initially. But that relief wouldn’t be felt everywhere.

McNally said diesel prices could plunge by dimes per gallon in the Gulf Coast and the Midwest because an export ban would trap diesel produced in those regions.

But the East Coast and West Coast could experience sudden price hikes because those regions rely on imports and have less access to Gulf Coast fuel.

“If he bans exports, the coasts are screwed,” McNally said.

Where does US diesel go?

Global diesel prices could skyrocket — hurting US customers in Europe and Latin America.

Sarah Meyssonnier/Reuters

Garrett Golding, assistant vice president at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, said in a post on X on Monday that surging global prices for diesel “will boomerang back” onto the East Coast and, to a lesser extent, the West Coast.

In other words, there’s no guarantee a US export ban even causes the national price of diesel to drop because steep declines in Texas would be offset by spikes in New York.

However, it’s hard to say with certainty exactly how this would play out.

Andy Lipow, president of Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, said he thinks the coasts could weather the storm with the help of Jones Act waivers, which would allow US ships to transport fuel from the Gulf Coast.

But the real problem is what comes next.

For months, US refiners have been the last man standing in the global refining shortage caused by war and export restrictions.

But if Washington suddenly prevented refiners from selling to customers overseas, they would logically pull back on how much crude they process into fuel. That, in turn, would likely mean higher prices and less supply of all fuels — not just diesel, but jet fuel and gasoline, too.

“The price of gasoline could soar,” Lipow said. “Do not ban diesel exports. You will have a whole rash of unintended consequences.”

One big uncertainty is the response of US allies that rely on diesel to power their local economies. But it’s easy to see how some countries could try to retaliate by holding back supplies the United States needs.

“The United States is the world’s biggest diesel exporter. Imagine the panic for the world’s most important fuel if the US bans exports. You would have a scramble,” McNally said.

Tellingly, the push to ban US diesel exports has reached the point where the oil industry decided to respond directly.

Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, warned in a post on X this week that an export ban would “make the problem worse, not better – for consumers, farmers and the broader US economy.”

Refiners have been booming this year because of record-setting margins to turn oil into diesel.

However, an export ban could put intense pressure on the industry by causing refiners to dial back production.

“Some refiners may not survive,” Lipow said.

Ironically, that would be the exact opposite of what the White House says Trump wants. After meeting with refining executives, a White House official said Trump and his team will support efforts to reopen shuttered refineries, expand the capacity of existing refineries and construct new ones.

But a major new oil refinery hasn’t been built in the United States since 1977 — and banning diesel exports could be the worst way to convince the industry that now is the time to spend billions building a new one.

Gregory Brew, senior analyst at the consulting firm Eurasia Group, said the export ban discussion is “reflective of the very uncomfortable dynamic this administration is trapped in.”

“They are attempting a high-stakes game of chicken with the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iran’s almost entire strategy is built around exerting pressure on the US through energy prices,” Brew said.

But researchers say the best way to drive down energy prices at home is to end the Iran war, not limiting exports.

“Unless they are prepared to make a deal with Iran, they don’t have good options for lowering prices,” Brew said.

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

柴油是地球上最重要的燃料，但价格却非常昂贵，以至于一些共和党人希望唐纳德·特朗普总统停止向朋友和盟友出口柴油。

“高柴油价格正在扼杀农民的收入，”共和党参议员查克·格拉斯利上周在X网站上发帖称，呼吁“禁止柴油出口”。

上周，田纳西州共和党众议员蒂姆·伯切特在众议院发表讲话，他身旁竖立着一块广告牌，上面写着柴油价格“失控”。他提出了一项法案，旨在禁止柴油出口。就连路易斯安那州州长杰夫·兰德里也呼吁对美国柴油出口实施为期90天的禁令。路易斯安那州拥有世界上一些最大的炼油厂。

禁止美国柴油出口或许是特朗普向外界表明他正在采取行动应对不断飙升的柴油价格（这些价格正在加剧美国人的生活成本上涨）的一种诱人方式。

然而，研究人员警告说，出口禁令可能只能暂时缓解柴油价格飙升的局面，从中长期来看，将会适得其反。他们表示，禁令很可能会推高盟友和邻国的柴油价格，推高汽油价格，重创美国炼油企业，并损害美国作为可靠能源超级大国的声誉。

“这简直是火上浇油，”前小布什政府能源官员、Rapidan能源集团总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利本周表示，“这将是一个彻头彻尾的政策错误，或者我称之为‘重大政策失误’。事实上，这将是重大政策失误之王。”

柴油价格——现代经济核心的卡车、火车、拖拉机和轮船的主要燃料——周末飙升至每加仑6.50美元以上，创历史新高。这距离2008年以来经通胀调整后的最高价格仅差几美分。

今年以来，柴油价格已飙升 83%，这很可能成为自 AAA 于 2000 年开始追踪柴油价格以来最大的年度涨幅。

多种因素叠加导致油价飙升：伊朗战争切断了中东地区的柴油出口，而中东是柴油最重要的地区之一。此外，乌克兰无人机袭击摧毁了俄罗斯（世界第二大柴油出口国）的一系列炼油厂。雪上加霜的是，俄罗斯和中国都实施了出口限制。

一位白宫官员周一告诉CNN，目前政府没有考虑出口禁令或出口限制。

内政部长道格·伯古姆本月告诉CNBC，他对出口禁令能否真正降低价格“完全没有信心”，并警告说，这实际上可能会“损害”依赖进口地区的美国人。

不过，麦克纳利表示，他认为特朗普政府很有可能因为高价而“受到诱惑”采取出口限制措施。

柴油出口禁令或许能有效降低油价——至少在初期如此。但并非所有地区都能感受到这种降价效果。

麦克纳利表示，由于出口禁令将使墨西哥湾沿岸和中西部地区生产的柴油被困在国外，这些地区的柴油价格可能会每加仑暴跌几美分。

但东海岸和西海岸可能会出现价格突然上涨的情况，因为这些地区依赖进口，而且较少获得墨西哥湾沿岸的燃料。

“如果他禁止出口，沿海地区就完蛋了，”麦克纳利说。

美国柴油都流向哪里了？

全球柴油价格可能飙升，这将损害欧洲和拉丁美洲的美国消费者的利益。

萨拉·梅索尼尔/路透社

达拉斯联邦储备银行助理副总裁加勒特·戈尔丁周一在 X 网站上发帖称，全球柴油价格飙升“将会反弹”到美国东海岸，并在较小程度上波及西海岸。

换句话说，即使美国实施出口禁令，也不能保证全国柴油价格会下降，因为德克萨斯州的大幅下降会被纽约州的飙升所抵消。

然而，很难确定事情最终会如何发展。

休斯顿咨询公司 Lipow Oil Associates 的总裁安迪·利波表示，他认为在《琼斯法案》豁免的帮助下，沿海地区可以渡过这场风暴，该法案将允许美国船只从墨西哥湾沿岸运输燃料。

但真正的问题是接下来会发生什么。

几个月来，由于战争和出口限制造成的全球炼油短缺，美国炼油商一直是最后的坚守者。

但如果华盛顿突然禁止炼油商向海外客户出售原油，他们自然会减少原油加工量。反过来，这很可能导致所有燃料价格上涨和供应减少——不仅是柴油，还包括航空煤油和汽油。

利波说：“汽油价格可能会飙升。不要禁止柴油出口，否则会引发一系列意想不到的后果。”

一个很大的不确定因素是那些依赖柴油发电的美国盟友会作何反应。但很容易理解，一些国家可能会通过扣留美国所需的柴油供应来采取报复措施。

“美国是世界上最大的柴油出口国。想象一下，如果美国禁止出口，世界上最重要的燃料将会引发怎样的恐慌。肯定会出现一场争夺战，”麦克纳利说道。

值得注意的是，禁止美国柴油出口的呼声已经到了石油行业决定直接回应的地步。

美国石油协会首席执行官迈克·萨默斯本周在 X 网站上发帖警告说，出口禁令“会让问题变得更糟，而不是更好——对消费者、农民和更广泛的美国经济而言”。

今年炼油厂生意兴隆，因为将原油提炼成柴油的利润率创下历史新高。

然而，出口禁令可能会给炼油行业带来巨大压力，迫使炼油商减少产量。

“有些炼油厂可能无法生存下去，”利波说。

具有讽刺意味的是，这与白宫所说的特朗普的意愿恰恰相反。一位白宫官员在与炼油企业高管会面后表示，特朗普及其团队将支持重启已关闭的炼油厂、扩大现有炼油厂产能以及新建炼油厂。

但自 1977 年以来，美国就没有新建过大型炼油厂——禁止柴油出口可能是说服该行业现在是时候花费数十亿美元建造新炼油厂的最糟糕的方式。

欧亚集团咨询公司高级分析师格雷戈里·布鲁表示，关于出口禁令的讨论“反映了本届政府所处的非常尴尬的局面”。

布鲁说：“他们正试图与伊朗伊斯兰共和国进行一场高风险的胆小鬼游戏，而伊朗的整个战略几乎都是围绕着通过能源价格向美国施压而建立的。”

但研究人员表示，降低国内能源价格的最佳方法是结束伊朗战争，而不是限制出口。

“除非他们准备与伊朗达成协议，否则他们没有很好的方法来降低价格，”布鲁说。