Singapore core inflation rises to 2.2% in August

Singapore's core inflation rose 2.2 per cent in August from a year earlier, data from the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) showed.

This was driven by an increase in food, retail and other goods, and services inflation, MTI and MAS said in a joint update on Wednesday (Sept 23).

On a month-on-month basis, core prices — which excludes accommodation and private transport due to their volatility and tendency to be influenced by supply-side administrative policies — rose by 0.3 per cent in August.

Overall inflation, listed as "consumer price index-all items" rose by 0.6 per cent, to 2.3 per cent in August, owing to the pickup in core inflation.

MTI and MAS said overall inflation, on a month-on-month basis, rose by 0.6 per cent in August, as compared to the 0.2 per cent fall in July.

This excludes non-consumption expenditure such as purchase of houses, shares and other financial assets and income tax.

Breakdown by sectors

The data showed that electricity and gas inflation remained at the same pace in August as in July — at 8.7 per cent.

This was largely due to the increase in the regulated electricity tariff in July 2026 .

Food costs also rose from 2.2 per cent in July, to 2.3 per cent in August, as the prices of food services rose.

Retail and other goods edged up from 1.4 per cent in July, to 1.8 per cent in August, owing to higher inflation in clothing and footwear, and personal care products.

Meanwhile, services rose from 1.7 per cent in July, to 2 per cent in August, due to airfares and prices for point-to-point transport services increasing at a quicker pace.

The ministry and authority noted that elevated global energy prices have led to increases in Singapore’s electricity and gas tariffs, and higher transportation fares.

With global oil prices remaining high and volatile, alongside adverse weather conditions that will, in turn, lower agricultural yields, Singapore's imported food prices is set to continue increasing.

"As higher input costs pass through global supply chains, the prices of a wider range of Singapore’s imported goods and services are expected to pick up in the quarters ahead," MTI and MAS said.

Enhanced government subsidies

On the domestic front, services unit labour costs are likely to rise at a slower pace amid sustained productivity growth and moderating nominal wage growth.

However, enhanced government subsidies is expected to continue to have a dampening effect on services inflation.

In view of these factors, MAS said core inflation and consumer price index-all items inflation are still projected to average 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in 2026.

But core inflation is expected to remain elevated into next year before moderating from around mid-2027, along with the expected easing in global energy prices, the agencies said.

MTI and MAS also highlighted that risks to the inflation outlook remain high.

"Renewed disruptions in global energy supplies or worse-than-expected weather conditions could raise Singapore’s imported costs by more than anticipated.

"Inflation could also be more persistent than projected if robust IT investment growth generates stronger demand spillovers globally and in Singapore."

Meanwhile, downside risks remain, with any unexpected tightening in global financial conditions or pullback in artificial intelligence-related investment potentially leading to a slowdown in economic activity.

新加坡贸易与工业部 (MTI) 和新加坡金融管理局 (MAS) 的数据显示，新加坡 8 月份核心通胀率同比上涨 2.2%。

贸工部和金融管理局周三（9月23日）联合发布最新消息称，这是由于食品、零售和其他商品以及服务价格上涨所致。

8 月份，核心价格环比上涨 0.3%（由于住宿和私人交通波动较大且易受供给侧行政政策影响，因此不包括这些价格）。

受核心通胀上升的影响，8月份“所有项目消费者价格指数”整体通胀率上涨0.6个百分点，达到2.3%。

贸工部和金管局表示，8 月份整体通胀率环比上升 0.6%，而 7 月份则下降了 0.2%。

这不包括非消费性支出，例如购买房屋、股票和其他金融资产以及所得税。

按行业细分

数据显示，8 月份电力和天然气价格的通胀率与 7 月份持平，为 8.7%。

这主要是由于 2026 年 7 月电力管制价格上涨所致。

由于餐饮服务价格上涨，食品成本也从 7 月份的 2.2% 上涨至 8 月份的 2.3%。

由于服装鞋类和个人护理产品价格上涨，零售和其他商品价格从 7 月份的 1.4% 小幅上涨至 8 月份的 1.8%。

与此同时，由于机票和点对点交通服务价格上涨速度加快，服务业增长率从 7 月份的 1.7% 上升到 8 月份的 2%。

该部委和有关部门指出，全球能源价格上涨导致新加坡的电力和天然气价格上涨，交通费用也随之增加。

由于全球石油价格居高不下且波动不定，加上不利的天气条件反过来又会降低农业产量，新加坡的进口食品价格势必继续上涨。

贸工部和金管局表示：“随着投入成本上升传导至全球供应链，预计未来几个季度新加坡进口商品和服务的种类将大幅上涨。”

加强政府补贴

在国内方面，由于生产率持续增长和名义工资增长放缓，服务业单位劳动力成本的增长速度可能会放缓。

然而，政府补贴力度加大预计将继续抑制服务业通胀。

鉴于这些因素，新加坡金融管理局表示，预计2026年核心通胀率和所有商品消费价格指数通胀率仍将平均为1.5%至2.5%。

但各机构表示，核心通胀预计将在明年继续保持高位，然后从 2027 年年中左右开始放缓，同时全球能源价格预计将会下降。

贸工部和金融管理局也强调，通胀前景面临的风险仍然很高。

“全球能源供应再次中断或天气状况比预期更糟，可能会使新加坡的进口成本增加超过预期。”

“如果强劲的IT投资增长在全球和新加坡产生更强劲的需求溢出效应，那么通胀的持续时间可能会比预期更长。”

与此同时，下行风险依然存在，全球金融环境任何意外收紧或人工智能相关投资的回落都可能导致经济活动放缓。