Russia flaunts doomsday weapons to curb Western support for Ukraine

This year has seen President Vladimir Putin repeatedly brandish the nuclear sword, reminding everyone that Russia has the world’s largest atomic arsenal to try to deter the West from ramping up support for Ukraine.

He ordered his military to hold drills involving battlefield nuclear weapons with ally Belarus.

He announced Russia will start producing ground-based intermediate range missiles that were outlawed by a now-defunct U.S.-Soviet treaty in 1987.

And last month, he lowered the threshold for unleashing his arsenal by revising the country’s nuclear doctrine.

Putin is relying on those thousands of warheads and hundreds of missiles as an enormous doomsday machine to offset NATO's massive edge in conventional weapons to discourage what he sees as threats to Russia’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.

A look at Russia's atomic arsenal and the issues surrounding it:

Russia's strategic weapons

The Federation of American Scientists estimated this year that Russia has an inventory totaling 5,580 deployed and nondeployed nuclear warheads, while the U.S. has 5,044. Together, that’s about 88% of the world’s nuclear weapons.

Most of these are strategic, or intercontinental-range weapons. Like the U.S., Russia has a nuclear triad of ground-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, long-range bombers and ICBM-armed submarines.

Since Putin came to power in 2000, the Kremlin has worked to upgrade the Soviet-built components of the triad, deploying hundreds of new land-based missiles, commissioning new nuclear submarines and modernizing nuclear-capable bombers. Russia’s effort to revamp its nuclear forces has helped prompt the U.S. to launch a costly modernization of its arsenal.

In this image taken from a video distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service in December 2020, a Russian Tu-160 strategic bomber fires a cruise missile at test targets. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP)

Russia has reequipped its land-based strategic missile forces with mobile Yars ICBMs and recently began deploying the heavy, silo-based Sarmat ICBMs — designated “Satan II” missiles in the West — to gradually replace about 40 Soviet-built R-36M missiles. Sarmat has had only one known successful test, and reportedly suffered a massive explosion during an abortive test last month.

The navy commissioned seven new Borei-class atomic-powered submarines, each with 16 Bulava nuclear-tipped missiles, and plans to build five more. They are intended to form the core of the triad’s naval component alongside a few Soviet-era nuclear subs still operating.

Russia still relies on Soviet-built Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers carrying nuclear-tipped cruise missiles. Moscow has restarted production of the supersonic Tu-160 that was halted after the 1991 Soviet collapse, aiming to build several dozen modernized aircraft with new engines and avionics.

Russia’s nonstrategic nuclear weapons

The U.S. estimates that Russia has between 1,000 and 2,000 nonstrategic, or tactical, nuclear weapons intended for use on the battlefield that typically are far less powerful than the strategic warheads capable of destroying entire cities.

Russia has high-precision ground-launched Iskander missiles with a range of up to 310 miles, which can be fitted with either a conventional or a nuclear warhead.

The air force has a fleet of MiG-31 fighter jets that carry a hypersonic Kinzhal missile, which can be equipped with a nuclear or conventional warhead. Russia has widely used conventional versions of both Iskander and Kinzhal against Ukraine.

As part of the Kremlin’s nuclear messaging, Russia and ally Belarus held drills to train their troops with the battlefield nuclear weapons in May, shortly after Putin began his fifth term .

MAD and Russia’s nuclear doctrine

Moscow and Washington have relied for decades on nuclear deterrence under the concept of mutually assured destruction — MAD for short — based on the assumption that an overwhelming retaliation would discourage either side from launching an attack.

Russia’s nuclear doctrine adopted in 2020 envisaged using such ultimate weapons in response to a nuclear strike or an attack with conventional weapons that threatens “the very existence of the Russian state.” Moscow hawks criticized that document as too vague, urging Putin to toughen it.

Last month, he warned the U.S. and NATO allies that allowing Ukraine to use Western-supplied longer-range weapons for strikes deep inside Russia would put NATO at war with his country.

He reinforced the message by announcing a new version of the nuclear doctrine that considers a conventional attack on Russia by a nonnuclear nation that is supported by a nuclear power to be a joint attack on his country — a clear warning to the U.S. and other allies of Kyiv.

Putin also declared the revised document envisages possible nuclear weapons use in case of a massive air attack, holding the door open to a potential nuclear response to any aerial assault — an ambiguity intended to deter the West.

Changes in the doctrine suggest Russia “is doubling down on its strategy of relying on nuclear weapons for coercive purposes” in the war in Ukraine, said Heather Williams, director of the Project on Nuclear Issues at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a commentary.

The future for arms control

The 2010 New START U.S.-Russian arms reduction treaty, the last remaining arms control pact between Moscow and Washington that expires in 2026, limits each country to no more than 1,550 deployed nuclear warheads and 700 deployed missiles and bombers.

In February 2023, Putin suspended Russia’s participation in New START, but vowed that Russia would abide by its limits.

In this photo released by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service in May 2024, Russian troops load an Iskander missile as part of drills to train the military for using tactical nuclear weapons at an undisclosed location in Russia. (Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP,)

In July, Putin declared Russia will launch production of ground-based intermediate range missiles that were banned under the now-defunct U.S. Soviet INF Treaty. The 1987 pact banned missiles with a range of 310 to 3,410 miles. He said Moscow will respond in kind to the planned deployment of U.S. intermediate-range missiles to Germany, taking steps to “mirror” Washington’s move.

Even as U.S.-Russian tensions soared to their highest point since the Cold War amid fighting in Ukraine, Washington has urged Moscow to resume dialogue on nuclear arms control. Putin rejected the offer, saying such negotiations are meaningless while the U.S. is openly seeking to inflict a strategic defeat to Russia in Ukraine.

Resuming nuclear testing

Russian hawks are calling for a resumption of nuclear tests to demonstrate Moscow’s readiness to use its atomic arsenal and force the West to limit aid for Kyiv.

Putin said Russia could resume testing if the U.S. does so first, a move that would end a global ban in place after the demise of the USSR.

Last month, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said the nuclear test range on the Arctic archipelago of Novaya Zemlya is ready to resume tests if the U.S. does so.

Prospective new weapons

In 2018, Putin revealed an array of new weapons, claiming they would render any prospective U.S. missile defenses useless.

They include the Avangard hypersonic glide vehicle, capable of flying 27 times faster than the speed of sound and making sharp maneuvers to dodge an enemy’s missile shield. The first such units have already entered service.

Putin also mentioned the nuclear-armed and atomic-powered Poseidon underwater drone, designed to explode near coastlines and cause a radioactive tsunami. Earlier this year, he said Poseidon tests are nearing completion, without giving details.

Also under development is an atomic-powered cruise missile, a concept that dates to the Cold War. But the missile, called the Burevestnik, or Petrel, has raised skepticism among experts, who cite technological obstacles and radiation safety concerns. During tests in 2019, an explosion at a naval range on the White Sea reportedly involving the Burevestnik killed five engineers and two servicemen, and caused a brief spike in radiation.

Putin said this year its development was in the final stages and the military has reportedly built a base for the missiles in the Vologda region of northwestern Russia.

The Associated Press receives support for nuclear security coverage from the Carnegie Corporation of New York and Outrider Foundation . The AP is solely responsible for all content.

今年，俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京多次挥舞核武器，提醒世人俄罗斯拥有世界上最大的核武库，试图阻止西方加大对乌克兰的支持力度。

他命令军队与盟友白俄罗斯举行涉及战场核武器的演习。

他宣布俄罗斯将开始生产陆基中程导弹，这种导弹曾被1987年一项现已失效的美苏条约禁止。

上个月，他通过修改国家核战略，降低了动用核武器的门槛。

普京依靠数千枚核弹头和数百枚导弹，将其视为一台巨大的末日机器，以抵消北约在常规武器方面的巨大优势，从而阻止他认为对俄罗斯主权和领土完整的威胁。

审视俄罗斯的原子武器库及其相关问题：

俄罗斯的战略武器

美国科学家联盟今年估计，俄罗斯拥有已部署和未部署的核弹头总数为 5580 枚，而美国拥有 5044 枚。两者加起来约占世界核武器总数的 88%。

这些武器大多是战略性或洲际射程武器。与美国一样，俄罗斯也拥有由陆基洲际弹道导弹、远程轰炸机和携带洲际弹道导弹的潜艇组成的核三位一体。

自普京2000年上台以来，克里姆林宫一直致力于升级苏联时期建造的三位一体核力量，部署了数百枚新型陆基导弹，建造了新型核潜艇，并对具备核打击能力的轰炸机进行了现代化改造。俄罗斯重塑核力量的努力促使美国启动了一项耗资巨大的核武库现代化计划。

这张图片截取自俄罗斯国防部新闻处2020年12月发布的一段视频，视频中一架俄罗斯图-160战略轰炸机正在向测试目标发射巡航导弹。（俄罗斯国防部新闻处供图，美联社发布）

俄罗斯已为其陆基战略导弹部队换装了机动式“亚尔斯”洲际弹道导弹，并于近期开始部署重型井基“萨尔马特”洲际弹道导弹（西方称之为“撒旦II”导弹），以逐步取代约40枚苏联制造的R-36M导弹。“萨尔马特”导弹目前仅有一次已知的成功试射，据报道，该导弹在上个月的一次失败试射中发生了剧烈爆炸。

海军已服役七艘新型北风之神级核动力潜艇，每艘配备16枚布拉瓦核导弹，并计划再建造五艘。它们将与几艘仍在服役的苏联时代核潜艇一起，构成三位一体核力量的核心。

俄罗斯仍然依赖苏联制造的图-95和图-160战略轰炸机，这些轰炸机可携带核弹头巡航导弹。莫斯科已重启在1991年苏联解体后停产的超音速图-160轰炸机的生产，目标是制造数十架配备新型发动机和航空电子设备的现代化飞机。

俄罗斯的非战略核武器

美国估计，俄罗斯拥有 1000 至 2000 枚非战略性或战术性核武器，这些武器计划在战场上使用，其威力通常远小于能够摧毁整座城市的战略核弹头。

俄罗斯拥有射程达 310 英里的高精度陆基伊斯坎德尔导弹，该导弹可配备常规弹头或核弹头。

俄罗斯空军拥有米格-31战斗机机队，该机可携带高超音速“匕首”导弹，该导弹可配备核弹头或常规弹头。俄罗斯曾广泛使用“伊斯坎德尔”和“匕首”的常规版本对乌克兰作战。

作为克里姆林宫核宣传的一部分，俄罗斯及其盟友白俄罗斯在普京开始其第五个总统任期后不久的5月份举行了演习，以训练其部队使用战场核武器。

相互确保摧毁与俄罗斯的核战略

几十年来，莫斯科和华盛顿一直依赖核威慑，奉行相互确保摧毁（简称 MAD）的概念，其假设是压倒性的报复将阻止任何一方发动攻击。

俄罗斯2020年通过的核战略设想，在遭受核打击或威胁“俄罗斯国家生存”的常规武器攻击时，将使用此类终极武器。莫斯科鹰派批评该文件过于模糊，敦促普京加强其力度。

上个月，他警告美国和北约盟国，允许乌克兰使用西方提供的远程武器对俄罗斯境内纵深目标进行打击，将使北约与乌克兰开战。

他宣布了新版核战略，进一步强化了这一信息。该战略认为，一个无核国家在核大国的支持下对俄罗斯发动的常规攻击，就是对俄罗斯的联合攻击——这是对美国和基辅其他盟友的明确警告。

普京还宣称，修订后的文件设想在遭受大规模空袭的情况下可能使用核武器，这为对任何空中袭击进行核反击敞开了大门——这种模糊性旨在威慑西方。

战略与国际研究中心核问题项目主任希瑟·威廉姆斯在一篇评论中表示，理论的变化表明，俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中“正在加倍推行依靠核武器进行胁迫的战略”。

军备控制的未来

2010 年美俄新削减战略武器条约（New START）是莫斯科和华盛顿之间仅存的军控条约，将于 2026 年到期。该条约限制每个国家部署的核弹头不超过 1550 枚，部署的导弹和轰炸机不超过 700 架。

2023年2月，普京暂停了俄罗斯参与《新削减战略武器条约》，但誓言俄罗斯将遵守条约的限制。

这张由俄罗斯国防部新闻处于2024年5月发布的照片​​显示，俄罗斯军队在俄罗斯境内一处未公开地点装载“伊斯坎德尔”导弹，这是军队使用战​​术核武器演习的一部分。（俄罗斯国防部新闻处供图，美联社发布）

7月，普京宣布俄罗斯将开始生产陆基中程导弹，这种导弹曾被现已失效的美苏《中导条约》禁止。这项1987年的条约禁止射程在310至3410英里之间的导弹。他表示，莫斯科将对美国计划向德国部署中程导弹做出对等回应，采取措施“效仿”华盛顿的举动。

尽管美俄关系因乌克兰冲突而升至冷战以来的最高点，华盛顿仍敦促莫斯科重启核军控对话。普京拒绝了这一提议，称在美国公开寻求在乌克兰对俄罗斯造成战略性失败的情况下，此类谈判毫无意义。

恢复核试验

俄罗斯鹰派呼吁恢复核试验，以展示莫斯科使用其原子武库的准备，并迫使西方限制对基辅的援助。

普京表示，如果美国率先恢复核试验，俄罗斯也可以恢复核试验。此举将结束苏联解体后实施的全球禁令。

上个月，韩国副外长谢尔盖·里亚布科夫表示，如果美国恢复核试验，位于北极新地岛群岛的核试验场已做好恢复试验的准备。

潜在的新武器

2018 年，普京公布了一系列新型武器，声称这些武器将使美国任何可能的导弹防御系统失效。

其中包括“先锋”高超音速滑翔飞行器，其飞行速度可达音速的27倍，并能进行急转弯以躲避敌方导弹防御系统。首批此类飞行器已投入使用。

普京还提到了携带核武器和原子能的“波塞冬”水下无人潜艇，该潜艇设计用于在海岸线附近爆炸，引发放射性海啸。今年早些时候，他曾表示“波塞冬”的测试已接近尾声，但未透露更多细节。

此外，一种核动力巡航导弹也在研发中，这一概念可以追溯到冷战时期。但这款名为“海燕”（Burevestnik）的导弹引发了专家的质疑，他们指出存在技术障碍和辐射安全隐患。2019年，在白海的一个海军靶场进行的测试中，据报道“海燕”导弹发生爆炸，造成五名工程师和两名军人死亡，并导致短暂的辐射峰值。

普京今年表示，该导弹的研发已进入最后阶段，据报道，军方已在俄罗斯西北部的沃洛格达地区建造了导弹基地。

美联社的核安全报道得到了纽约卡内基基金会和Outrider基金会的支持。美联社对所有内容负全部责任。