Why has the Philippines’ peso plunged to a record low?

The Southeast Asian country’s currency has plummeted amid the fallout of the Iran war and economic challenges at home.

Philippine Peso bills sent by a Filipino working abroad are pictured at a money remittance center in Makati City, Metro Manila, Philippines, on September 19, 2018 [File: Eloisa Lopez/Reuters]

The Philippine’s peso is hovering at historic lows amid a confluence of economic challenges at home and geopolitical turmoil abroad.

On Friday, the currency hit an all-time low of 62.71 to the US dollar.

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Here’s everything you need to know about the plunging value of the currency:

What has been happening with the peso’s value?

The peso has been on a downward trajectory since the start of the year, losing about 6 percent of its value against the US dollar since January 1.

The currency has broken several records over the past few months amid rising oil prices and other negative headwinds from the US-Israel war on Iran.

The peso hit a record low of 61.847 to the US dollar on July 24, before falling further to 62.265 last Friday.

The peso has continued its slide this week, closing at 62.565 on Wednesday and sinking to 62.71 on Friday.

Why has the peso fallen so much?

The peso is responding to several negative trends in the Philippines economy and the strength of the US dollar.

Before the war, the Philippines imported almost all its oil from the Gulf. In March, Manila was forced to declare a state of national emergency when Iran’s effective shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted supplies.

As oil prices have risen, Philippine importers have had to convert more pesos for US dollars to purchase dollar-priced crude, driving down the value of the local currency.

At the same time, rising yields of US Treasury Bonds – a type of loan to the US government – have encouraged international investors to trade the currencies of developing economies for safer dollar-dominated assets, pushing the peso lower.

The Philippines’ strained public finances and large trade deficit have exacerbated these downward pressures.

“The weakness in the Philippine Peso stems largely from the large twin – fiscal and current account – deficits the economy is running, combined with the elevated inflation that the central bank, the BSP, is trying to tackle,” said Philip McNicholas, Asia sovereign strategist at Robeco Singapore.

“This has left the peso vulnerable to swings in global risk sentiment, which have soured in recent weeks as events in the Middle East have kept oil prices elevated,” McNicholas said.

What is the impact for the Philippines’ economy and Filipinos?

Currency depreciation is not inherently negative, but it typically benefits exporters at the expense of consumers.

A weaker currency means that firms can sell their products overseas more cheaply, but that also that households pay more for imported goods.

“It can improve competitiveness, support tourism and increase the local-currency value of foreign income,” said Masahiko Loo, senior fixed income strategist at State Street Investment Management in Tokyo.

“The problem arises when depreciation becomes too rapid, particularly for energy-importing economies, because it raises import costs and fuels inflation,” Loo said.

The Philippines’ inflation rate stood at 6.1 percent in August, well above regional peers and double the central bank’s target of around 3 percent.

Ashwin Binwani, founder of Alpha Binwani Capital, a private closed-end joint venture fund in Singapore, said the peso could sink past 63.00 to the dollar if oil stays above $90 a barrel.

“The damage becomes materially worse if the currency weakness persists alongside high oil prices and above-target inflation rather than reversing quickly,” Binwani said.

“The peso’s fall does not instantly raise the price of every item in a supermarket. The main transmission is through imported inputs and energy.”

President Ferdinand Marcos Jr’s administration has pledged to improve fiscal discipline and said that it expects the central bank to intervene as necessary to stabilise the currency.

One bright spot for the Philippines is the large amount of remittances it receives from the more than two million Filipinos working overseas.

Filipinos sent home a record $35.63bn last year, much of it in dollars, according to the country’s central bank.

“Remittances, which account for roughly 8 to 9 percent of GDP, provide a powerful stabiliser for the peso and help cushion external shocks. However, they are not a complete shield,” Loo said.

Binwani said the impact peso’s fall will place a significant but “uneven” strain on households.

“It raises the peso cost of essentials that depend on imports – especially fuel, transport, food inputs, and manufactured goods – while offering a partial cushion to families receiving overseas remittances,” he said.

受伊朗战争的影响以及国内经济挑战，这个东南亚国家的货币大幅贬值。

2018年9月19日，在菲律宾马尼拉大都会马卡蒂市的一家汇款中心，可以看到一名在国外工作的菲律宾人寄出的菲律宾比索钞票。[图片：Eloisa Lopez/路透社]

受国内经济挑战和国外地缘政治动荡的双重影响，菲律宾比索汇率徘徊在历史低位。

周五，该货币兑美元汇率跌至历史新低 62.71。

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以下是关于该货币贬值你需要了解的一切：

比索的价值发生了什么变化？

自年初以来，比索一直处于下跌趋势，自 1 月 1 日以来，其对美元的价值已贬值约 6%。

过去几个月，由于油价上涨以及美以对伊朗战争带来的其他不利因素，该货币屡创新高。

7月24日，比索兑美元汇率跌至历史新低61.847，上周五进一步下跌至62.265。

本周比索继续下跌，周三收于 62.565，周五跌至 62.71。

为什么比索贬值这么多？

比索的走势受到菲律宾经济若干不利因素以及美元走强的影响。

战前，菲律宾几乎所有石油都依赖从海湾地区进口。3月，伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡，导致石油供应中断，马尼拉被迫宣布进入国家紧急状态。

随着油价上涨，菲律宾进口商不得不将更多比索兑换成美元来购买以美元计价的原油，导致当地货币贬值。

与此同时，美国国债（一种借给美国政府的贷款）收益率上升，促使国际投资者将发展中经济体的货币兑换成更安全的以美元为主的资产，从而导致比索贬值。

菲律宾紧张的公共财政和巨大的贸易逆差加剧了这些下行压力。

“菲律宾比索疲软的主要原因是该国经济面临巨大的财政赤字和经常账户赤字，再加上中央银行（菲律宾央行）正在努力应对的高通胀，”罗贝科新加坡亚洲主权财富基金策略师菲利普·麦克尼古拉斯表示。

麦克尼古拉斯表示：“这使得比索容易受到全球风险情绪波动的影响，而近几周来，由于中东局势持续高企，油价居高不下，全球风险情绪也随之恶化。”

这对菲律宾经济和菲律宾人民有何影响？

货币贬值本身并非坏事，但通常会使出口商受益，而损害消费者利益。

货币贬值意味着企业可以更便宜地将产品销往海外，但也意味着家庭要为进口商品支付更多费用。

“它可以提高竞争力，支持旅游业，并提高外汇收入的本币价值，”东京道富投资管理公司高级固定收益策略师卢正彦表示。

“当贬值速度过快时，问题就出现了，特别是对于能源进口经济体而言，因为这会提高进口成本并加剧通货膨胀，”卢说。

菲律宾8月份的通货膨胀率为6.1%，远高于地区其他国家，是央行设定的3%左右目标的两倍。

新加坡私人封闭式合资基金 Alpha Binwani Capital 的创始人 Ashwin Binwani 表示，如果油价保持在每桶 90 美元以上，比索兑美元汇率可能会跌破 63.00。

“如果货币疲软的局面持续下去，同时油价高企、通胀率高于目标水平，而不是迅速逆转，那么损害将会变得更加严重，”宾瓦尼说。

“比索贬值并不会立即导致超市里所有商品的价格上涨。主要的影响是通过进口原材料和能源来体现的。”

小费迪南德·马科斯总统的政府承诺改善财政纪律，并表示希望中央银行在必要时进行干预以稳定货币。

菲律宾的一大亮点是，超过两百万在海外工作的菲律宾人向菲律宾汇回了大量汇款。

据菲律宾中央银行统计，去年菲律宾人汇回国内的金额达到创纪录的 356.3 亿美元，其中大部分是美元。

“汇款约占国内生产总值的8%至9%，对比索汇率起到了强有力的稳定作用，并有助于缓冲外部冲击。然而，汇款并非万无一失的保障，”卢说道。

宾瓦尼表示，比索贬值将对家庭造成重大但“不均衡”的压力。

他说：“这提高了依赖进口的必需品（尤其是燃料、运输、食品原料和制成品）的比索价格，同时为收到海外汇款的家庭提供了一定的缓冲。”