El Niño is supercharging Pacific storms. A new hurricane threat for Hawaii and monstrous Polo are further proof

A prolific Pacific hurricane season fueled by a super El Niño is showing no signs of slowing down with another tropical threat taking shape for Hawaii just a day after Hurricane Polo exploded into a Category 5 monster off of Mexico’s coast.

El Niño has been supercharging this year’s Pacific hurricane season with extremely warm water that’s been like rocket fuel for storms and minimal storm-killing wind shear. The extra helping hand from El Niño is on top of already warmer-than-normal oceans as the planet heats up from fossil fuel pollution.

Eighteen named storms — including three Category 5 hurricanes — have roamed the eastern and central Pacific so far and there are two full months of the season left to go. Sixteen originated in the eastern Pacific basin, which typically sees up to 15 storms in an entire season.

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Later this week, Hawaii will face its third close brush with a hurricane this season, and it could be the strongest yet: A new tropical depression is poised to strengthen and approach the island chain by the weekend.

It could be the first time that three hurricanes have come within 100 miles of Hawaii’s main islands in a single season since at least the 1950s.

Tropical Depression 15-E was about 400 miles south-southeast of the state’s Big Island as of late Tuesday night, local time, according to the National Hurricane Center. It’s set to pass close to the Big Island as a hurricane Saturday, bringing extreme rain, damaging winds and dangerous surf.

“Life-threatening, catastrophic flooding and mudslides are possible” again on portions of the Big Island and Maui, the National Hurricane Center warned Tuesday night.

Tropical alerts could be issued later today for parts of the state.

The depression is forecast to become Tropical Storm Nolo sometime Wednesday and reach hurricane strength by Thursday night, local time.

It’s expected to make its closest approach to the Big Island Saturday night as a Category 3 major hurricane. Its center could be only 50 miles from the Big Island’s southern shoreline at the time.

Hurricane Lala took a similarly close track to the Big Island in mid-August as a Category 1 storm and unleashed catastrophic flooding there. On the other side of the state, Hurricane Lowell delivered a blow to Kauai and Niihau in early September as a Category 2 storm.

Nolo’s close pass as a potential major hurricane means damaging winds are a considerable threat. Tropical storm-force winds stronger than 40 mph are likely and hurricane-force winds stronger than 75 mph are possible on the Big Island’s south side Friday through at least Saturday. Stronger gusts are likely in the island’s high elevations.

A flood threat will build well ahead of the system’s closest approach. Rain will begin later Wednesday on the Big Island and spread to reach Maui, Lanai and Molokai later Thursday or early Friday.

Ten to 15 inches of rain are possible over the Big Island through Sunday with up to 35 inches in the steepest terrain, according to the National Hurricane Center. Mountains force air to rush upwards, wringing out more moisture that falls as torrential rain. Lala dumped more than 40 inches of rain on parts the Big Island and the results were catastrophic.

In Maui, 5 to 10 inches are possible with isolated amounts up to 20 inches. About 1 to 3 inches of rain is expected elsewhere on the main islands.

Offshore, dangerous seas will build and reach their peak Friday and Saturday. Rough conditions will likely last through the weekend and into next week even as the hurricane starts to track west away from the island Sunday night into Monday.

Earlier this week, Hurricane Polo showed exactly what the extremely warm Pacific is capable of when it exploded from a tropical storm to Category 5 hurricane in just 24 hours.

That’s called extreme rapid intensification , a wind increase of 58 mph or more in 24 hours. Polo met that criteria and then some, with a 110-mph increase in its sustained winds from Monday to Tuesday morning.

This rate of rapid intensification is “truly remarkable,” the National Hurricane Center said Tuesday morning, and is among the fastest on record in the Eastern Pacific.

Hurricane Patricia set the Eastern Pacific 24-hour intensification record in 2015 when its winds jumped 120 mph. Polo is comparable to 2023’s Hurricane Otis , which had a wind increase of 105 mph in 21 hours before it devastated Acapulco, Mexico. More hurricanes are rapidly intensifying as Earth and its oceans warm from fossil fuel pollution.

Polo’s winds topped out at 180 mph on Tuesday afternoon, tying a pair of super typhoons in the West Pacific as the strongest storms on the planet so far this year.

As of Wednesday morning, Polo was a very powerful Category 4 hurricane about 200 miles offshore of southern Mexico’s state of Guerrero.

Polo is not expected to make landfall there, but it is bringing rain and some tropical storm-force winds to parts of the coast. Heavy rain is Polo’s most significant threat and could cause life-threatening flooding and mudslides in this region.

Rainfall totals in coastal Guerrero and Michoacán states could reach 3 to 6 inches, with locally up to 8 inches in spots through Thursday. Coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima and Jalisco states could receive 2 to 4 inches of rain.

受超级厄尔尼诺现象影响，太平洋飓风季异常活跃，丝毫没有减弱的迹象。就在飓风波罗在墨西哥海岸附近增强为五级飓风的第二天，另一个热带风暴又在夏威夷形成威胁。

厄尔尼诺现象极大地增强了今年太平洋飓风季的强度，极高的海水温度如同火箭燃料般助长了风暴的形成，同时几乎没有造成风暴消散的风切变。而由于化石燃料污染导致全球变暖，海洋温度本已高于往年，厄尔尼诺现象的额外作用更是加剧了飓风季的强度。

迄今为止，已有18个命名风暴——其中包括3个五级飓风——在东太平洋和中太平洋肆虐，而飓风季还有整整两个月才结束。其中16个风暴起源于东太平洋盆地，该地区通常一个飓风季最多只会出现15个风暴。

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本周晚些时候，夏威夷将面临本季第三次飓风的近距离袭击，而且可能是迄今为止最强的一次：一个新的热带低气压预计将在周末前增强并逼近该岛链。

这可能是自 20 世纪 50 年代以来，首次在一个飓风季内有三场飓风逼近夏威夷主岛 100 英里以内。

据美国国家飓风中心消息，截至当地时间周二晚间，热带低气压15-E位于夏威夷大岛东南偏南约400英里处。预计该低气压将于周六以飓风强度逼近大岛，带来强降雨、破坏性大风和危险巨浪。

美国国家飓风中心周二晚间警告称，夏威夷大岛和毛伊岛部分地区可能再次发生“危及生命、灾难性的洪水和泥石流”。

今天晚些时候，该州部分地区可能会发布热带风暴警报。

预计低气压将于周三某个时候发展成热带风暴诺洛，并于当地时间周四晚达到飓风强度。

预计这场飓风将于周六晚间以三级飓风的强度最接近夏威夷大岛。届时，其中心可能距离大岛南海岸线仅50英里。

8月中旬，飓风拉拉以一级飓风的强度逼近夏威夷大岛，并在那里造成了灾难性的洪水。9月初，飓风洛厄尔以二级飓风的强度袭击了夏威夷州的考艾岛和尼豪岛。

诺洛飓风接近夏威夷，可能发展成强飓风，这意味着破坏性大风构成相当大的威胁。从周五到至少周六，夏威夷大岛南侧可能出现超过40英里/小时的热带风暴级风速，以及超过75英里/小时的飓风级风速。岛上高海拔地区阵风可能更强。

洪水威胁将在系统最接近之前就逐渐增强。降雨将于周三晚些时候开始影响夏威夷大岛，并于周四晚些时候或周五凌晨蔓延至毛伊岛、拉奈岛和莫洛凯岛。

据美国国家飓风中心预测，夏威夷大岛周日之前可能出现10到15英寸的降雨，地形最陡峭的地区降雨量可能高达35英寸。山脉迫使空气向上流动，挤压出更多水汽，最终以暴雨的形式落下。飓风“拉拉”曾给夏威夷大岛部分地区带来超过40英寸的降雨，造成了灾难性的后果。

在毛伊岛，降雨量可能达到5到10英寸，局部地区甚至可能高达20英寸。主岛其他地区预计降雨量约为1到3英寸。

近海海域，危险海况将在周五和周六达到顶峰。即使飓风于周日晚至周一开始向西远离该岛，恶劣海况仍可能持续到周末乃至下周。

本周早些时候，飓风波罗展现了极其温暖的太平洋所能造成的威力，它在短短 24 小时内从热带风暴迅速增强为 5 级飓风。

这被称为极端快速增强，指24小时内风速增加58英里/小时或以上。波罗飓风不仅符合这一标准，而且远超预期，其持续风速从周一到周二早上增加了110英里/小时。

美国国家飓风中心周二上午表示，这种快速增强的速度“确实非同寻常”，是东太平洋有记录以来最快的增强速度之一。

2015年，飓风帕特里夏创下了东太平洋24小时内风速飙升120英里/小时的纪录。波罗飓风的情况与2023年的飓风奥蒂斯类似，后者在袭击墨西哥阿卡普尔科之前，21小时内风速增加了105英里/小时。随着化石燃料污染导致地球及其海洋变暖，越来越多的飓风正在迅速增强。

周二下午，波罗台风的风速达到每小时 180 英里，与西太平洋的两场超级台风并列为今年迄今为止地球上最强的风暴。

截至周三上午，波罗飓风已发展成威力强大的四级飓风，位于墨西哥南部格雷罗州海岸约 200 英里处。

预计波洛飓风不会在该地区登陆，但它会给部分沿海地区带来降雨和热带风暴级别的强风。强降雨是波洛飓风最大的威胁，可能在该地区引发危及生命的洪水和泥石流。

格雷罗州和米却肯州沿海地区的降雨量可能达到3至6英寸，局部地区周四之前降雨量可能高达8英寸。瓦哈卡州、科利马州和哈利斯科州沿海地区降雨量可能达到2至4英寸。