Trump-Xi summit: Here’s what’s on the agenda, and why it matters

The leaders of the US and China are expected to discuss trade, AI and Iran war in their third in-person meeting in a year.

L to R, Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump in Beijing, China, in May 2026 [File: Evan Vucci/Reuters]

China’s leader Xi Jinping is expected to hold highly anticipated talks with United States President Donald Trump in Washington on Thursday, as both sides seek to ease trade tensions and discuss increasingly capable artificial intelligence (AI) systems.

On Wednesday evening, Trump and US First Lady Melania Trump greeted Xi and his wife, Peng Liyuan, at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland, with a rare red carpet welcome. No US president had previously welcomed a visiting guest personally at the base in six decades.

Earlier in the day, China’s state broadcaster CCTV reported that Xi and Peng were being accompanied by the president’s closest aide and adviser, Cai Qi, and Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

The White House said the talks scheduled for Thursday would mark “a significant milestone in the relationship between the two countries”.

But the state visit – Xi’s first to the US in more than a decade – is likely to touch on multiple points of tension, including the US-Israel war on Iran, the fallout from Trump’s tariffs and the threat of war over the island of Taiwan, which China claims as its territory.

What is XI’s schedule in Washington?

Trump met Xi on his arrival at Joint Base Andrews. But the main event is on Thursday morning, when Xi will receive a ceremonial welcome at the White House, accompanied by a military flyover and nearly 500 military personnel.

After the two leaders hold talks during the day, Trump will host a state dinner for Xi at the White House. This event is expected to include chiefs of companies important in both markets, such as Apple’s Tim Cook, Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and OpenAI’s Sam Altman.

The visit will wrap up on Friday morning when the two presidential couples will have tea at the White House and then visit the National Archives to round off the trip.

Instead ⁠of a joint news conference or statement at the end, the countries are expected to issue separate announcements highlighting what each side hopes to convey to its own domestic audience.

What’s on the agenda for the talks?

Before the main meeting on Thursday, the two sides have already walked away from an imminent cliff: their current 11-month trade truce was set to expire in November, but has now been extended until January 10, giving their negotiating teams more time to hammer out a broader deal.

The US-Israel war on Iran is also likely to ⁠feature prominently in the discussions. Beijing has maintained close ties with Tehran, but it is unclear whether a meeting with Xi will do anything to help Trump break the ongoing deadlock in the conflict. Washington may hope that Beijing could use its influence over Tehran, observers say, but Trump has so far maintained he sees no need to seek China’s help.

The two countries are also likely to talk more about the race to develop AI, as they are in fierce competition but mindful of growing dangers. The US has proposed a new “notification mechanism” with China to alert each other of any AI incident serious enough to threaten national security.

China is also expected to raise the issue of Taiwan. In December, the Trump administration approved an $11bn arms sale to Taiwan, the largest ever, but a second package, worth some $14bn, has been on hold for months. Trump has described the arms sales as a “very good negotiating chip”.

Trump is also expected to seek the release of some Americans and others imprisoned in China, after securing the July release of Pastor Ezra Jin , a Chinese national jailed as part of the 2025 crackdown on underground churches in China. Trump had raised the pastor’s case with Xi in May.

What are relations between Trump and Xi like?

Trump’s decision to greet Xi personally upon arrival shows how far the US president is going to honour China’s leader, observers say. During a TV interview, Melania Trump said her husband had decided to greet Xi because they “have a great relationship”.

“He’s coming on our soil, and we need to welcome them with the most respect,” she said of Xi and his wife during the interview with Fox News.

Despite the conciliatory tones, however, the two leaders’ ties have been strained by a trade war that began shortly after Trump returned to office for a second presidential term in January 2025.

The US president imposed a 10 percent duty on Chinese goods over fentanyl and immigration concerns, while China responded with levies on US coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), crude oil and autos, and curbs on exports of five rare-earth metals that are essential for the manufacture of defence equipment and clean energy.

Both sides escalated rapidly, with tariffs reaching triple digits and Beijing also warning its citizens against US travel. China also threatened to impose curbs on the export of seven more rare-earth metals late last year.

That was put on hold when Trump and Xi struck a trade truce following talks in South Korea in October 2025. When the US president travelled to China in May this year, they announced plans to create a Board of Trade and Investment, ⁠while Xi agreed to purchases of Boeing jets and US farm products.

But Trump has since imposed new 12.5 percent tariffs on goods from 60 trading partners, including China, over allegations that those countries failed to curb imports made ⁠by forced labour.

Why does this summit matter?

Thursday’s meeting at the White House marks the two leaders’ third in-person meeting in a little less than a year amid what has been described as a reprieve in hostilities.

Both sides continue to test one another while avoiding an escalation. During Trump’s state visit, the two sides agreed to “a constructive China-US relationship of strategic stability”, a diplomatic framework often referred to as “constructive strategic stability”.

The meeting will prove a further test of whether such a posture can hold in light of each side’s competing interests.

This balancing act could yield deals to reduce tariffs in specific sectors, cooperate on drug trafficking, and expand military-to-military dialogue.

It could also set the course for steady, long-term development of bilateral relations and confirm cooperation as the mainstay.

预计中美领导人将在一年内的第三次面对面会晤中讨论贸易、人工智能和伊朗战争等问题。

2026年5月，中国国家主席习近平和美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在北京（从左至右）[图片：Evan Vucci/路透社]

中国领导人习近平预计将于周四在华盛顿与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普举行备受瞩目的会谈，双方将寻求缓和贸易紧张局势，并讨论功能日益强大的人工智能（AI）系统。

周三晚间，特朗普总统和第一夫人梅拉尼娅·特朗普在马里兰州安德鲁斯联合基地以罕见的红毯仪式迎接了习近平主席及其夫人彭丽媛。此前六十年来，没有哪位美国总统亲自到该基地迎接来访贵宾。

当天早些时候，中国中央电视台报道称，习近平和彭定康由国家主席最亲密的助手和顾问蔡琦以及外交部长王毅陪同。

白宫表示，定于周四举行的会谈将标志着“两国关系的一个重要里程碑”。

但此次国事访问——习近平十多年来首次访美——可能会触及多个紧张点，包括美以对伊朗的战争、特朗普关税政策的后果以及围绕台湾岛（中国声称对其拥有主权）的战争威胁。

XI在华盛顿的赛程安排是什么？

特朗普在习近平抵达安德鲁斯联合基地时会见了他。但重头戏是周四上午，届时习近平将在白宫接受隆重的欢迎仪式，届时将有军机编队飞行和近500名军人陪同。

两国领导人当天举行会谈后，特朗普将在白宫为习近平举行国宴。预计出席此次晚宴的包括两国重要企业的负责人，例如苹果公司的蒂姆·库克、英伟达公司的黄仁勋和OpenAI公司的萨姆·奥特曼。

此次访问将于周五上午结束，届时两对总统夫妇将在白宫享用下午茶，然后参观国家档案馆，为此次行程画上圆满的句号。

预计两国不会在最后举行联合新闻发布会或发表联合声明，而是分别发布公告，重点阐述各自希望向本国民众传达的信息。

会谈议程是什么？

在周四的主要会议之前，双方已经避免了迫在眉睫的危机：他们目前为期 11 个月的贸易休战协议原定于 11 月到期，但现在已延长至 1 月 10 日，这给了双方谈判团队更多的时间来敲定一项更广泛的协议。

美以对伊战争也可能成为会谈的重点。北京与德黑兰保持着密切联系，但与习近平会晤能否帮助特朗普打破目前在伊朗问题上的僵局，目前尚不明朗。观察人士指出，华盛顿可能希望北京能够利用其对德黑兰的影响力，但特朗普迄今为止一直坚称，他认为没有必要寻求中国的帮助。

两国还可能就人工智能研发竞赛展开更多对话，因为双方竞争激烈，但也都意识到日益增长的风险。美国已提议与中国建立新的“通报机制”，以便在发生任何足以威胁国家安全的重大人工智能事件时相互发出警报。

预计中国也会提出台湾问题。去年12月，特朗普政府批准了一项价值110亿美元的对台军售，这是有史以来规模最大的对台军售，但第二笔价值约140亿美元的军售计划已被搁置数月。特朗普曾将这笔军售描述为“非常好的谈判筹码”。

继7月成功促成中国公民金以斯拉牧师获释后，预计特朗普还将寻求释放一些被关押在中国的美国公民和其他人士。金以斯拉牧师因中国2025年取缔地下教会的行动而被捕入狱。特朗普曾在5月向习近平提出过金以斯拉牧师的案件。

特朗普和习近平的关系如何？

观察人士表示，特朗普决定亲自迎接习近平，表明这位美国总统对中国领导人的尊重程度。梅拉尼娅·特朗普在接受电视采访时表示，她的丈夫决定迎接习近平是因为他们“关系很好”。

“他来到我们的国土，我们需要以最大的尊重欢迎他，”她在接受福克斯新闻采访时谈到习近平和他的妻子时说道。

尽管语气缓和，但自特朗普于 2025 年 1 月连任总统后不久，一场贸易战爆发，导致两位领导人的关系紧张。

美国总统以芬太尼和移民问题为由，对中国商品征收 10% 的关税，而中国则对美国煤炭、液化天然气 (LNG)、原油和汽车征收关税，并限制五种稀土金属的出口，这些稀土金属对于制造国防设备和清洁能源至关重要。

双方冲突迅速升级，关税高达三位数，北京方面还警告其公民不要前往美国。去年年底，中国还威胁要限制另外七种稀土金属的出口。

2025年10月，特朗普和习近平在韩国举行会谈后达成贸易休战协议，这一计划因此被搁置。今年5月，美国总统访华期间，双方宣布计划成立贸易投资委员会，而习近平也同意购买波音飞机和美国农产品。

但特朗普随后以这些国家未能遏制强迫劳动生产的进口商品为由，对包括中国在内的 60 个贸易伙伴的商品加征了 12.5% 的新关税。

这次峰会为何如此重要？

周四在白宫举行的会晤是两位领导人在不到一年的时间里举行的第三次面对面会晤，此前双方被形容为敌对行动的暂时休战。

双方在避免局势升级的同时，继续试探对方。在特朗普对中美进行国事访问期间，双方同意建立“建设性的中美战略稳定关系”，这一外交框架通常被称为“建设性战略稳定”。

这次会议将进一步检验，鉴于双方利益的冲突，这种立场是否能够维持下去。

这种平衡之举可能会促成降低特定行业关税、在打击毒品走私方面开展合作以及扩大军事对话的协议。

它还可以为双边关系的稳定、长期发展奠定基础，并确认合作是双边关系的支柱。