East Coast eyes strengthening nor’easter already battering Mid-Atlantic shores

An early fall nor’easter is gathering strength along the central East Coast, pounding beaches in several states with heavy surf and threatening to bring coastal flooding, wind and rain to parts of the Northeast through the weekend.

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The nor’easter, named for the direction its punishing winds come from, currently sits several hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast and will begin to track north and strengthen over the next two days.

But exactly how close it lumbers along the coast remains uncertain, and even a small change in its track could make a big difference in how much punch the storm delivers when it arrives in the Northeast late Friday or early Saturday.

Coastal flooding and hammering winds are already underway from North Carolina and Virginia to New Jersey, the start of a dayslong coastal flood and erosion threat that will extend into New England as the storm ramps up. The coincidence of the full moon Saturday is compounding the problem by raising high tide levels day by day.

Here’s what’s in store as the nor’easter develops.

Forecast models have waffled back and forth for days but have recently settled on putting New England and Long Island, New York, in the bull’s-eye of the storm’s most significant rain and wind this weekend .

Potent wind gusts, significant coastal flooding and heavy rain are possible in these areas, but that could shift depending on exactly where the storm sets up.

Boston and Providence, Rhode Island, are a couple of the cities where wet and windy conditions will ramp up by Friday night or Saturday morning.

New York City looks to be on the storm’s western edge, outside of its most intense conditions but close enough to see showers and breezy conditions by Saturday night. The storm could take a bigger bite if its track shifts closer to the Big Apple.

Coastal portions of New England and Long Island will likely encounter the strongest winds, with gusts over 40 mph possible. A high wind watch is in effect for coastal Massachusetts and Rhode Island, where wind gusts could reach 50 mph.

The wind will also rough up seas considerably and cause some beach erosion and coastal flooding at high tide Friday into Saturday.

Rain could also cause some flooding on roads in southeastern New England. Portions of eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island could see 2 to 4 inches of rain this weekend, with the hardest hit areas seeing up to 5 inches.

The storm could affect parts of the Northeast into Sunday or Monday. It’ll likely be past its peak strength by then, but coastal flooding, rainfall and breezy conditions could still persist.

Coastal flooding is a lock in the Mid-Atlantic through the end of this week regardless of what the nor’easter does in the Northeast because of two other factors.

The first is a strong area of high pressure over eastern Canada that’s sending crisp and chilly air to the Northeast. High temperatures in the region are forecast to only climb up to the 60s into the weekend as a result.

That high pressure and the burgeoning nor’easter are squeezing the air between them, increasing wind speeds along the East Coast.

The second factor at play: a full moon. Tide levels will climb higher each day until they hit their monthly peak around Saturday’s full moon. Higher water levels and stronger winds are the exact combination needed for serious coastal flooding.

Coastal areas of North Carolina, Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey experienced some flooding Wednesday, with a few locations in southeast Virginia reaching major flood stage. Additional bouts are expected there through Friday or even Saturday.

Many locations will experience at least moderate inundation of ocean water and some places could see major flooding. The flooding and pounding surf day after day will likely result in significant beach erosion as well.

Parts of eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey could also see some light to moderate rain showers depending on how far east the storm system travels.

一股初秋的东北风暴正在美国东海岸中部地区增强，巨浪拍打着多个州的沙滩，并可能在周末给东北部部分地区带来沿海洪水、大风和暴雨。

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这场东北风暴因其强劲的风向而得名，目前位于大西洋中部沿岸数百英里处，并将于未来两天内开始向北移动并增强。

但风暴究竟会沿着海岸线缓慢移动多近仍不确定，即使路径发生微小的变化，也可能对风暴在周五晚些时候或周六早些时候抵达东北部时造成的威力产生重大影响。

从北卡罗来纳州和弗吉尼亚州到新泽西州，沿海地区已经出现洪水和强风，这标志着持续数日的沿海洪水和侵蚀威胁的开始，随着风暴增强，威胁还将蔓延至新英格兰地区。周六的满月恰逢其时，加剧了这一问题，导致潮位逐日升高。

以下是东北风暴发展过程中可能出现的情况。

预测模型连日来摇摆不定，但最近一致认为，本周末新英格兰和纽约长岛将处于这场风暴最强降雨和大风的中心地带。

这些地区可能会出现强风、严重的沿海洪水和暴雨，但具体情况可能会根据风暴的确切位置而有所变化。

波士顿和罗德岛州普罗维登斯等城市，从周五晚上或周六早上开始，潮湿多风的天气将会加剧。

纽约市似乎位于风暴西侧边缘，虽然不在风暴最强烈的区域内，但距离风暴中心足够近，预计周六晚间将出现阵雨和微风天气。如果风暴路径向纽约市方向移动，其影响可能会更大。

新英格兰沿海地区和长岛可能会遭遇最强风，阵风风速可能超过每小时40英里。马萨诸塞州和罗德岛沿海地区已发布强风预警，阵风风速可能达到每小时50英里。

周五至周六的高潮期间，强风将使海面变得波涛汹涌，并造成海滩侵蚀和沿海洪水。

降雨也可能导致新英格兰东南部部分道路出现洪水。马萨诸塞州东部和罗德岛州部分地区本周末可能迎来2至4英寸的降雨，其中受灾最严重的地区降雨量可能高达5英寸。

这场风暴可能会持续影响美国东北部部分地区，直至周日或周一。届时风暴强度可能已过巅峰，但沿海地区仍可能出现洪水、降雨和大风天气。

由于另外两个因素，无论东北风暴在东北部造成什么影响，大西洋中部沿海地区本周剩余时间都将持续发生洪水。

首先是加拿大东部上空的强高压区，它正将清爽的冷空气输送到东北部。因此，预计该地区周末最高气温只会攀升至60华氏度左右。

高气压和正在形成的东北风暴正在挤压它们之间的空气，导致东海岸的风速增加。

第二个影响因素是：满月。潮位将逐日升高，直至周六满月前后达到月度峰值。水位上涨和强风正是引发严重沿海洪灾的必要条件。

周三，北卡罗来纳州、弗吉尼亚州、马里兰州、特拉华州和新泽西州的沿海地区出现洪水，其中弗吉尼亚州东南部部分地区水位达到严重洪灾警戒线。预计这些地区周五甚至周六还会出现更多洪水。

许多地区将遭受至少中等程度的海水淹没，部分地区甚至可能出现严重洪灾。日复一日的洪水和海浪冲击也可能导致严重的海岸侵蚀。

根据风暴系统向东移动的距离，宾夕法尼亚州东部和新泽西州的部分地区也可能出现小到中雨。