‘The first prediction-market election’: How Kalshi and Polymarket scrambled the midterms

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty Images

Dan Rogalski has been obsessed with elections since middle school. He didn’t travel often as a kid, so elections were “a cool way to learn about different places,” he recalled.

He got a college degree in mathematics and now works as a software engineer in Seattle. But he said “there’s money to be made” on prediction markets , where people can bet on everything from sports to entertainment and the weather — and in Rogalski’s case, elections.

“I would see a lot of bad analysis online,” said Rogalski, 24. “So, I thought I could do better than these people.”

Since he started trading, Rogalski has profited $600,000 across platforms and ranked 20th on Kalshi’s leaderboard for election traders as of Thursday. He’s part of the more than $750 million in combined trading volume on 2026 election markets on Kalshi and its top rival, Polymarket, according to a CNN analysis of public data.

All this wagering is scrambling nearly every aspect of the midterms — from campaigns to election officials, voters, donors and traders — according to interviews with 20 people involved in elections and prediction sites. Many have dubbed it the “first prediction-market election.”

Multiple election officials told CNN prediction platforms are fostering a new wave of disinformation and creating risks for possible insider trading within their own offices.

Dean Logan, the top election official for Los Angeles County, said even though election markets are legal , he wishes they would go away. He said his election office, the largest in the nation, dealt with a surge of “destructive” prediction-fueled disinformation after the city’s mayoral primary in June.

His message to prediction companies? “Don’t do this,” he said. “Stay out of this particular field. There are plenty of other areas for you to do what you do. But you don’t really belong here.”

Campaigns say the markets are a new form of “background noise” they need to deal with, giving them a real-time barometer of public sentiment, even if the markets don’t always accurately predict outcomes.

Still, some political operatives acknowledged that they’re closely tracking their odds. One source told CNN they met a candidate who checks the market for their race “nearly every hour.”

CNN has a partnership with Kalshi and uses its data to cover major events. Editorial employees at CNN aren’t allowed to trade on prediction markets.

The prediction companies say their platforms offer a public service by harnessing the “wisdom of the crowd” to surface unbiased insights about election outcomes — which they claim are better than the polls.

“Election prediction markets are well-calibrated,” Kalshi’s head of politics growth Benjamin Freeman told CNN in an interview. “Polls are backwards-looking. They’re expensive to run. They can be biased. Markets are always live. They’re 24/7. They can price-in new information quicker than polls.”

A Polymarket spokesperson said in a statement, “We provide transparent, accurate, real-time information about the events that matter — an antidote to the disinformation poisoning public dialogue. The public has a right to this information, just as it has a right to polling, only ours is more accurate.”

To maximize engagement, and their own profits, Kalshi and Polymarket have created markets for essentially every inch of the 2026 midterms.

The hundreds of available markets range from every House and Senate race to more obscure questions such as whether major endorsements will be announced and even whether the midterms will “happen on time.”

The “who will control Congress” markets on Kalshi and Polymarket have seen a combined $32 million in trading volume, as of this week. But plenty of the closely watched House battlegrounds have less than $100,000 in trading volume.

More than 80% of the prediction business still comes from sports , though the election markets have grown. Trading activity comes from retail traders having fun, newfound day traders and large commercial institutions.

“We don’t do sports. We don’t want to spend our time in that mess,” said Earl Nemser, vice chairman of the Interactive Brokers Group, a brokerage that facilitates prediction trades. “But elections outcomes have major global consequences. It’s important for insurance companies and individuals to hedge exposure.”

Some election officials say the prediction wave is creating fresh headaches at a time when they’re already grappling with new threats from the Trump administration, burnout among poll workers and years of disinformation.

Others like Derek Bowens, the elections director in Durham County, North Carolina, said it’s “something we have to live with,” despite his concerns that prediction sites create “challenges to the confidence of our election system.”

Jonathan Drake/Reuters

Prediction sites were on the agenda at a professional conference in July, where election officials from across the country swapped strategies for November. At the conference, and in later interviews, officials told CNN they’re nervous that prediction markets could even depress turnout, because voters might not go to the polls if their preferred candidate has horrific odds to win.

“People are looking to betting market as indicators for who will win, and that’s dangerous,” said Barb Byrum, the election clerk for Ingham County, Michigan, which includes Lansing. “This is just people who are trying to make a buck. It’s simply conjecture. The true results come from the voters.”

Kalshi rejects many of these concerns. Freeman said prediction sites could boost turnout by attracting new voters, especially younger voters who like trading. He also said prediction platforms give people and businesses a way to financially “hedge political outcomes” in a fair and open market.

What comes up the most with election officials is their fear that prediction sites will create new avenues for disinformation about mass voter fraud and elections being rigged. And there’s already a poster child for this: The Los Angeles mayoral primary.

For most of the campaign, prediction markets suggested Democratic Mayor Karen Bass would advance to the general election along with Republican Spencer Pratt, the former reality TV star who built a fervent online following .

Bass’ campaign was pulling for Pratt, too, viewing him as a weaker opponent for November, and betting markets may have contributed to an overconfidence, a Bass campaign ally told CNN. (Bass spokesman Alex Stack said prediction markets were “background noise” that didn’t influence campaign strategy.)

Kayla Bartkowski/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images

In the week after the June 2 primary, election workers slowly tallied more than 850,000 votes, and Pratt fell from second place to third, knocking him out of the general election.

Frustrated Pratt supporters cited prediction markets to claim the race was rigged. Making matters even worse, paid social media influencers for Kalshi and Polymarket were caught peddling false conspiracies about shady “late” ballots and “literally impossible” vote totals.

“It had some real negative effects,” said Logan, the Los Angeles County election official. “We spent a lot of time on our end trying to combat that misinformation about the security and accuracy of our process.”

Prediction markets have also become a new consideration for pollsters — and not always in a positive light. Markets shifted after Bass promoted an August poll that she said showed her “momentum,” but it later turned out the survey was fake, with the group behind it calling it a “social experiment.”

Adding to the potential confusion for voters, Kalshi “projects” winners on election nights with sleek social media graphics. Polymarket also uses the “projection” phrase to describe the odds on its markets, adopting the same terminology that news organizations like CNN use — but with very different methodologies.

News outlets hire statisticians who use mathematical models to project winners from real results. Freeman said Kalshi “projects” winners after polls close when a candidate reaches 99% odds to win and stays there for a while.

“These aren’t formal calls, like the media does it,” Freeman told CNN. “In small print on these graphics, we clarify that these aren’t official calls.”

Another high-profile miss by prediction markets this year came in August’s Democratic primary for Wisconsin governor. State Rep. Francesca Hong was trading at around 95% to win, heading into Election Day but lost to Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley in a major upset that also defied polling.

A former spokeswoman for Hong’s campaign, Allison Geyer, said the markets “never factored into our strategic thinking” and that, “even with traditional polling consistently showing us in first place, we took nothing for granted.”

Other candidates heavily favored on prediction platforms also lost in Hawaii and Texas . Kalshi traders gave Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed a 97% chance to win his primary – he did win, but by a tiny margin of less than 1%.

“This is the first prediction-market election,” said Nicholas Jager, 26, a trader with profits of $1.3 million this year. “The markets have been pretty good … Wisconsin was a miss. For the public, it can be pretty jarring, seeing a high-probability thing not actually occurring.”

Kalshi says that in a fair market, huge underdogs occasionally do win. After Wisconsin, co-founder Luana Lopes Lara posted , “5% is not 0%.”

The betting markets have seeped into campaign culture.

One Democratic operative said some staffers are watching the markets so closely that they’re scouring for bumps from strong debate performances or drops from bad stories in the press.

But they also noted that prediction sites can’t offer insights for which TV ads should be deployed in which media markets. Another operative said they found more value from polling, and the “feel” from door-knocking and phone-banking.

“I’d be lying if I said I didn’t look at Kalshi, but it’s not driving our decisions,” one of the operatives said.

Kelly Gibson, vice president of the American Association of Political Consultants, said she worried that favorable odds on prediction markets can lure campaigns into a “false sense of security” that they are winning a race. “It’s like a quicksand,” she said.

Some candidates have openly drawn optimism from prediction markets.

That happened earlier this month in the race for Texas railroad commissioner after GOP nominee Bo French drew bipartisan backlash for a xenophobic post about South Asian college football fans. His Democratic opponent, Jon Rosenthal, wrote on X, “I’m now the favorite,” sharing his 52% Kalshi odds.

The betting markets are rattling the donor world, too.

Another Democratic operative — one who worked in a competitive Senate primary — said they felt they had to track prediction markets because some donors followed the markets.

“It’s just another thing for them to stress out about,” the operative said.

So, the campaign would assuage donors’ concerns by downplaying the markets, sharing internal polls or previewing upcoming positive news, like a big endorsement.

Gibson, a Democratic media consultant, said she has heard of advisers having to talk donors, especially those from the technology industry, out of making investment decisions based on what prediction markets say about a race.

The expansion of prediction sites means it’s never been easier for campaign staff or election workers to corruptly cash in on insider knowledge — like a scandal that’s about to blow up, or a vote-drop in the middle of the night.

The first political insider trading cases became public in April, when Kalshi fined and suspended three minor candidates who bet on their own races. Speculation swirled about more cases, and some campaign staffers even anonymously bragged in the press about making money.

Kalshi disclosed a few more new cases last month, notably including Laurie Buckhout, the GOP nominee in a battleground House race in North Carolina. Buckhout apologized for her “dumb mistake,” and like the other traders, she only bet a small amount and paid a modest fine — about $2,600.

Legal experts have said the penalties in these and other cases, like the White House teleprompter operator , aren’t creating enough deterrence. Kalshi’s leaders say the fines typically follow longstanding formulas that are spelled out in federal law for how to punish securities and commodities fraud.

“If I had my druthers, we would bring a sledgehammer to every single case, to stop anybody from ever committing bad conduct,” Kalshi’s head of enforcement, Bobby DeNault, told CNN. “But that’s not really the way we traditionally think of pursuing enforcement when there are violations.”

The company scrubs public records for names of campaign staffers and blocks them from trading on relevant markets, DeNault said, as part of its internal safeguards to prevent and catch insider activity.

A Polymarket spokesperson said in a statement, “We protect our markets with continuous surveillance, clear rules against manipulation and misuse, and an experienced investigations team.”

The election officials who spoke to CNN said they’ve started including warnings against insider trading while preparing staff and poll workers for November. Some counties have adopted formal bans against election-trading.

“Referees don’t get to bet on sports, and election officials and election workers don’t get to bet on elections,” said Byrum, the Lansing election official. “That’s the message we’re conveying in our trainings to clerks.”

During primary season, the vast majority of markets were settled without a hitch and without any indications of manipulation or insider activity.

But a dispute in Alaska’s marquee Senate race raised questions about how things could go in November, when Kalshi and Polymarket will be settling thousands of markets during the chaotic post-election period, as races are called by press outlets and election officials certify final results.

Some traders complained that Kalshi improperly settled the market for the Alaska’s top-four primary after a flurry of action in the days afterward, where some candidates withdrew and were replaced by others.

Kalshi has defended settling the market based on who was announced to be on the final list of candidates advancing to the general election. But some traders argued that the officials market rules indicated that Kalshi should have paid out based on the original certified results of the race, before anyone dropped out.

“We resolved in accordance with our rules and common sense: ‘Yes’ for the four candidates on the ballot and ‘No’ for the two who are not,” Kalshi spokeswoman Elisabeth Diana said in an email.

One trader, who requested anonymity to speak candidly, said he bet $5,000 on the primary and thought he won $13,000. Another trader, Caleb Davies, said he believed the official rules didn’t align with the title of the market.

“When I call out stuff like this, it’s not because I’m looking for a payout,” said Davies, a top-1% trader on Kalshi who bet on the Alaska race. “In this case, I don’t even care. It’s more for the long-term health of the platform. I trade a ton, and you need to trust that platforms will pay out correctly.”

Michael Nagle/Bloomberg/Getty Images

丹·罗加尔斯基从中学起就对选举着迷。他回忆说，小时候他不常旅行，所以选举对他来说是“了解不同地方的一种很棒的方式”。

他获得了数学学位，现在在西雅图担任软件工程师。但他表示，在预测市场上“有利可图”，人们可以对从体育、娱乐到天气等各种事物进行投注——而罗加尔斯基则将赌注投向了选举。

“我经常在网上看到很多糟糕的分析，”24岁的罗加尔斯基说，“所以我觉得我可以做得比这些人更好。”

自开始交易以来，罗加尔斯基已在各大平台获利60万美元，截至周四，他在Kalshi的选举交易员排行榜上名列第20位。据CNN对公开数据的分析显示，Kalshi及其主要竞争对手Polymarket在2026年大选市场上的总交易量超过7.5亿美元，罗加尔斯基是其中的一员。

据对20位参与选举和预测网站的人士采访显示，所有这些赌博活动几乎扰乱了中期选举的方方面面——从竞选活动到选举官员、选民、捐款人和交易员。许多人将其称为“首次预测市场选举”。

多位选举官员告诉 CNN，预测平台正在助长新一轮虚假信息传播，并可能在其办公室内部造成内幕交易风险。

洛杉矶县首席选举官员迪恩·洛根表示，尽管选举市场合法，但他希望它们消失。他说，在6月份洛杉矶市长初选之后，他所在的选举办公室（全美最大的选举办公室）遭遇了大量由预测引发的“破坏性”虚假信息。

他对预测公司说的话是什么？“别干这行，”他说。“远离这个领域。你们可以去其他很多领域做你们擅长的事。但你们真的不适合这里。”

竞选团队表示，市场是他们需要应对的一种新的“背景噪音”，它为他们提供了一个实时了解公众情绪的晴雨表，即使市场并不总是能准确预测结果。

不过，一些政治人士承认，他们正在密切关注各自的胜算。一位消息人士告诉CNN，他遇到一位候选人，这位候选人“几乎每小时”都会查看自己竞选的赔率。

CNN与Kalshi建立了合作关系，并使用其数据报道重大事件。CNN的编辑人员不允许参与预测市场交易。

这些预测公司表示，他们的平台利用“群体智慧”提供公共服务，从而得出关于选举结果的公正见解——他们声称这些见解比民意调查更准确。

“选举预测市场经过了精心校准，”Kalshi政治增长主管本杰明·弗里曼在接受CNN采访时表示。“民调是回顾性的，运行成本高昂，而且可能存在偏差。而市场始终是实时运作的，全天候24小时不间断，能够比民调更快地将新信息纳入考量。”

Polymarket发言人在一份声明中表示：“我们提供透明、准确、实时的重要事件信息，以此对抗毒害公共对话的虚假信息。公众有权获得这些信息，就像他们有权参与民意调查一样，只不过我们的信息更加准确。”

为了最大限度地提高参与度和自身的利润，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 为 2026 年中期选举的几乎每一个方面都创建了市场。

数百个可供竞标的市场涵盖了从众议院和参议院的每一场竞选到更晦涩的问题，例如是否会宣布重大背书，甚至中期选举是否会“按时举行”。

截至本周，Kalshi 和 Polymarket 平台上“谁将控制国会”的交易量合计达到 3200 万美元。但许多备受关注的众议院席位争夺战的交易量却不足 10 万美元。

尽管选举预测市场有所增长，但超过 80% 的预测业务仍然来自体育赛事。交易活动则来自散户投资者（出于兴趣爱好）、新晋日内交易者和大型商业机构。

“我们不做体育交易，也不想把时间浪费在那堆烂摊子上，”盈透证券集团（Interactive Brokers Group）副董事长厄尔·内姆瑟（Earl Nemser）说道。盈透证券集团是一家提供预测交易服务的经纪公司。“但选举结果会产生重大的全球性影响。对保险公司和个人来说，对冲风险敞口至关重要。”

一些选举官员表示，在他们已经面临来自特朗普政府的新威胁、投票工作人员的疲惫不堪以及多年来的虚假信息之际，预测浪潮又带来了新的麻烦。

北卡罗来纳州达勒姆县选举主任德里克·鲍恩斯等人则表示，尽管他担心预测网站会“对我们选举制度的信心构成挑战”，但这是“我们必须接受的现实”。

乔纳森·德雷克/路透社

在7月份举行的一次专业会议上，预测网站被列入议程。来自全国各地的选举官员在会上交流了11月大选的策略。在会议上以及之后的采访中，官员们告诉CNN，他们担心预测市场甚至会降低投票率，因为如果选民支持的候选人获胜的几率极低，他们可能就不会去投票。

“人们把博彩市场当作预测胜负的指标，这很危险，”密歇根州英厄姆县（包括兰辛市）的选举事务员芭芭拉·拜伦说。“这只是有人想从中牟利。这纯粹是猜测。真正的结果来自选民。”

卡尔希驳斥了其中许多担忧。弗里曼表示，预测网站可以通过吸引新选民，尤其是喜欢交易的年轻选民，来提高投票率。他还表示，预测平台为个人和企业提供了一种在公平开放的市场中对冲政治结果的财务途径。

选举官员最担心的是，预测网站会为散布大规模选民舞弊和选举舞弊的虚假信息开辟新的途径。而洛杉矶市长初选就是一个典型的例子。

在竞选的大部分时间里，预测市场都认为民主党籍市长凯伦·巴斯将与共和党候选人斯宾塞·普拉特一同晋级大选。斯宾塞·普拉特曾是真人秀明星，在网上拥有众多狂热的追随者。

巴斯的竞选团队也支持普拉特，认为他是11月大选的弱敌，而博彩市场可能助长了他们的过度自信，巴斯竞选团队的一位盟友告诉CNN。（巴斯的发言人亚历克斯·斯塔克表示，预测市场只是“背景噪音”，不会影响竞选策略。）

Kayla Bartkowski/洛杉矶时报/Getty Images

在 6 月 2 日初选后的一周内，选举工作人员慢慢统计了超​​过 85 万张选票，普拉特从第二名跌至第三名，被淘汰出局，无缘参加大选。

普拉特的支持者们感到沮丧，他们援引预测市场的数据声称选举存在舞弊。更糟糕的是，卡尔希和宝利市场雇佣的社交媒体影响者被发现散布关于可疑的“迟到”选票和“根本不可能”的投票总数的虚假阴谋论。

洛杉矶县选举官员洛根表示：“这确实产生了一些负面影响。我们花费了大量时间来反驳关于我们选举流程安全性和准确性的错误信息。”

预测市场也成为民调机构需要考虑的新因素——但并非总是积极的。巴斯曾大力宣传一项八月份的民调，称其显示了她的“竞选势头”，但后来证实该调查是伪造的，其背后的组织称之为“社会实验”，此后市场风向发生了转变。

为了进一步加剧选民的困惑，卡尔希在选举之夜用精美的社交媒体图表“预测”获胜者。Polymarket 也使用“预测”一词来描述其市场的赔率，采用了与 CNN 等新闻机构相同的术语——但方法却截然不同。

新闻媒体会聘请统计学家，利用数学模型根据实际结果预测获胜者。弗里曼说，卡尔希会在投票结束后，当候选人的胜率达到99%并保持一段时间后，就“预测”出获胜者。

弗里曼告诉CNN：“这些并非正式通话，不像媒体那样。我们在这些图表的小字部分明确说明，这些并非正式通话。”

今年预测市场另一次引人注目的失误发生在8月份威斯康星州州长民主党初选中。州众议员弗朗西斯卡·洪在选举日前的民调中胜率高达95%左右，但最终却爆冷败给了密尔沃基县行政长官戴维·克劳利，这一结果也与民调预测大相径庭。

洪的竞选发言人艾莉森·盖尔表示，市场“从未纳入我们的战略思考”，而且“即使传统民调一直显示我们排名第一，我们也从未掉以轻心”。

其他一些在预测平台上备受看好的候选人也在夏威夷和德克萨斯州落败。Kalshi的交易员曾预测密歇根州民主党候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德有97%的概率赢得初选——他最终确实赢了，但优势微弱，不足1%。

“这是预测市场首次主导选举，”26岁的交易员尼古拉斯·贾格尔说道，他今年的盈利为130万美元。“市场表现一直不错……威斯康星州的选举结果失准了。对公众来说，看到一件高概率事件最终没有发生，确实会让人感到震惊。”

卡尔希表示，在公平的市场中，实力悬殊的弱者偶尔也能获胜。威斯康星州事件后，联合创始人卢安娜·洛佩斯·拉拉发帖称：“5% 不是 0%。”

博彩市场已经渗透到竞选文化中。

一位民主党工作人员表示，一些工作人员密切关注着市场，他们会仔细寻找辩论中强劲表现带来的市场波动，或者媒体负面报道带来的市场下跌。

但他们也指出，预测网站无法提供关于哪些电视广告应该在哪些媒体市场投放的洞察。另一位工作人员表示，他们发现民意调查更有价值，挨家挨户敲门和电话拜访也能带来“感觉”。

“如果我说我没关注过卡尔希，那我就撒谎了，但这并没有左右我们的决定，”其中一名特工说道。

美国政治顾问协会副主席凯莉·吉布森表示，她担心预测市场上的有利赔率会让竞选团队产生一种“虚假的安全感”，误以为自己会赢得选举。“这就像陷入流沙一样，”她说。

一些候选人公开表示，他们从预测市场中获得了乐观情绪。

本月初，在德克萨斯州铁路专员的竞选中，共和党候选人博·弗伦奇（Bo French）因发表针对南亚裔大学橄榄球球迷的仇外言论而遭到两党人士的强烈反对。他的民主党对手乔恩·罗森塔尔（Jon Rosenthal）随后在X网站上发文称：“我现在是热门人选”，并分享了他52%的卡尔希赔率。

博彩市场也让捐赠界感到不安。

另一位曾在竞争激烈的参议院初选中工作的民主党人士表示，他们觉得必须关注预测市场，因为一些捐助者会关注市场走势。

“这只会让他们更加焦虑，”该特工说道。

因此，竞选团队会通过淡化市场、分享内部民意调查或预告即将到来（例如获得重要支持）的利好消息来缓解捐助者的担忧。

民主党媒体顾问吉布森表示，她听说有顾问不得不劝说捐助者，尤其是科技行业的捐助者，不要根据预测市场对选举结果的预测来做出投资决定。

预测网站的扩张意味着竞选工作人员或选举工作人员比以往任何时候都更容易利用内部消息（例如即将爆发的丑闻或半夜突然下降的选票）来牟取不正当利益。

首批政治内幕交易案件于四月曝光，当时卡尔希对三名参与自己竞选赌博的小候选人处以罚款并暂停其竞选资格。随后，关于更多案件的猜测甚嚣尘上，甚至有竞选工作人员匿名向媒体吹嘘自己从中获利。

卡尔希上个月披露了几起新的案件，其中最引人注目的是北卡罗来纳州共和党众议院候选人劳里·巴克豪特。巴克豪特为自己的“愚蠢错误”道歉，和其他交易员一样，她只下了少量赌注，并支付了数额不大的罚款——大约2600美元。

法律专家表示，在这些案件以及其他类似案件（例如白宫提词器操作员案）中，处罚力度不足以起到威慑作用。卡尔希的领导人则表示，罚款通常遵循联邦法律中规定的、惩罚证券和商品欺诈行为的长期公式。

“如果由我做主，我们会对每一起案件都采取最严厉的措施，以阻止任何人再犯不良行为，”卡尔希执法部门负责人鲍比·德诺特告诉CNN。“但这并非我们传统上处理违规行为的方式。”

德诺表示，作为防止和抓获内幕交易的内部保障措施的一部分，该公司会审查公共记录，查找竞选工作人员的姓名，并阻止他们在相关市场上进行交易。

Polymarket 的一位发言人在一份声明中表示：“我们通过持续监控、明确的防止操纵和滥用的规则以及经验丰富的调查团队来保护我们的市场。”

接受CNN采访的选举官员表示，他们在为11月大选培训工作人员和投票站工作人员时，已经开始加入有关防范内幕交易的警告。一些县已经正式禁止选举交易。

兰辛市选举官员拜伦说：“裁判员不能参与体育博彩，选举官员和工作人员也不能参与选举博彩。这是我们在培训中向工作人员传达的信息。”

在初选季期间，绝大多数市场结算顺利，没有任何操纵或内幕交易的迹象。

但阿拉斯加州参议院选举中的一场争议引发了人们对 11 月份选举结果的担忧。届时，卡尔希和 Polymarket 将在混乱的选后时期处理数千个市场，因为新闻媒体会宣布选举结果，选举官员也会认证最终结果。

一些交易员抱怨说，在阿拉斯加前四名初选之后的几天里，一些候选人退出并被其他候选人取代，卡尔希没有妥善结算市场。

卡尔希辩称，他依据已公布的最终候选人名单来结算市场。但一些交易员认为，官方市场规则表明，卡尔希应该根据最初经认证的选举结果进行结算，也就是在任何人退出之前。

卡尔希发言人伊丽莎白·戴安娜在一封电子邮件中表示：“我们根据我们的规则和常识做出了决定：对选票上的四位候选人投‘赞成’票，对不在选票上的两位候选人投‘反对’票。”

一位要求匿名以畅所欲言的交易员表示，他在初选中下注了5000美元，认为自己赢了13000美元。另一位交易员卡莱布·戴维斯则表示，他认为官方规则与市场的名称不符。

“我指出这类问题，并非为了寻求回报，”戴维斯说道。他是Kalshi平台排名前1%的交易员，曾押注阿拉斯加赛马。“就这件事而言，我根本不在乎回报。我更关心的是平台的长期健康发展。我交易量巨大，你需要相信平台会按时支付回报。”