Global bond sell-off deepens, sending borrowing costs higher around the world

The US 30-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.45% Thursday morning, its highest level since 2004, extending a recent sell-off that’s seen yields climb around the globe.

Bond yields are on the rise again this week, surging to fresh highs for this year. Thursday’s action follows a bond sell-off Wednesday after new data from S&P Global showed robust US business activity in September but hot inflation from higher energy prices.

That’s prompting traders to bet on the Federal Reserve raising interest rates further to tamp down inflation. Traders are pricing in a 71% chance the Fed hikes in October, up from 11% one month ago, according to the CME FedWatch forecasting tool.

The key 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.15% Thursday morning, a fresh high for this year and the highest level since 2007.

Bond yields help set interest rates across the economy. As yields climb to multi-year highs, it pushes up the cost of borrowing for consumers, businesses and governments alike.

Oil prices rose Thursday, with Brent crude trading around $105 per barrel. That’s adding to inflation pressures and pushing up yields.

The rise in yields is a global phenomenon: Ten-year yields in France and Germany rose to their highest levels since 2008. Japan’s 10-year yield rose to 3.08%, a level not seen since 1996.

Yields rise when bond prices fall. A sell-off is rattling global bond markets, sending yields higher, as traders adjust to the prospect of central banks raising interest rates.

“Every major bond market’s feeling the heat at once,” Nigel Green, CEO at deVere Group, said in a note.

Ting Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images

10-year Treasury yield hits 5.1% for first time in 19 years

At the start of the year, some Wall Street analysts expected the Fed to have room to cut rates this year. But the energy shock caused by the war with Iran and a resilient economy have shifted the outlook. The two-year yield, which tracks expectations for Fed policy, has climbed from 3.48% at the start of the year to 4.87% this month.

The surge in energy prices caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz reignited inflation pressures in economies around the world, leading to a shift in central banks’ outlook toward prioritizing raising rates.

“Anyone positioned for a global easing cycle has had the ground pulled from under them,” Green said.

To be sure, traders’ bets on central bank policy can shift depending on the outlook for oil prices and the conflict in the Middle East. Yields could pullback if traders start to scale back their bets on higher central bank rates.

But for long-term bonds, which also move on factors including economic growth and inflation, some analysts say yields look set to remain elevated at multi-year highs. The rise in yields can also make life more expensive by pushing up the cost of mortgages, auto loans and other business loans.

The Treasury Department on Thursday is set to buy back up to $6 billion in long-term US bonds in the second of a series of increased buyback operations first announced in August. Bond buybacks can help tame a rise in yields. Still, yields have pushed higher despite the buyback program, and investors say fundamentals are pointing to long-term yields remaining elevated for longer.

Stocks were set to open lower: S&P 500 futures fell 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures sank 1%.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

周四上午，美国30年期国债收益率一度升至5.45%，创下2004年以来的最高水平，延续了近期全球收益率攀升的抛售趋势。

本周债券收益率再次攀升，飙升至年内新高。此前，标普全球公布的新数据显示，美国9月份商业活动强劲，但能源价格上涨导致通胀高企，引发周三债券抛售潮。周四的走势正是在此背景下发生的。

这促使交易员押注美联储将进一步加息以抑制通胀。据芝加哥商品交易所（CME）的FedWatch预测工具显示，交易员预计美联储10月份加息的概率为71%，高于一个月前的11%。

周四上午，关键的 10 年期美国国债收益率一度升至 5.15%，创下今年以来的新高，也是自 2007 年以来的最高水平。

债券收益率有助于设定整个经济体的利率水平。随着收益率攀升至多年来的高位，消费者、企业和政府的借贷成本都会上升。

周四油价上涨，布伦特原油价格在每桶105美元左右徘徊。这加剧了通胀压力，并推高了收益率。

收益率上升是一个全球现象：法国和德国的十年期国债收益率升至 2008 年以来的最高水平。日本的十年期国债收益率升至 3.08%，这是自 1996 年以来的最高水平。

债券价格下跌时，收益率上升。抛售潮正冲击全球债券市场，推高收益率，因为交易员们正在调整策略，以应对央行可能加息的预期。

deVere Group 首席执行官 Nigel Green 在一份报告中表示：“所有主要债券市场都同时感受到了压力。”

图片来源：Ting Shen/Bloomberg/Getty Images

10年期美国国债收益率19年来首次触及5.1%

年初时，一些华尔街分析师曾预期美联储今年仍有降息空间。但伊朗战争引发的能源冲击以及美国经济的韧性改变了这一预期。反映美联储政策预期的两年期国债收益率已从年初的3.48%攀升至本月的4.87%。

霍尔木兹海峡关闭导致能源价格飙升，再次引发全球经济的通胀压力，导致各国央行将重点转向提高利率。

格林表示：“任何为全球宽松周期做好准备的人都失去了立足之地。”

可以肯定的是，交易员对央行政策的押注会随着油价前景和中东冲突的走向而变化。如果交易员开始减少对央行加息的预期，收益率可能会回落。

但对于长期债券而言，由于其收益率也受经济增长和通胀等因素的影响，一些分析师表示，收益率预计将维持在多年来的高位。收益率上升还会推高抵押贷款、汽车贷款和其他商业贷款的成本，从而增加生活成本。

美国财政部周四计划回购至多60亿美元的长期美国国债，这是自8月份首次宣布以来一系列增持债券回购计划的第二阶段。债券回购有助于抑制收益率上升。然而，尽管有回购计划，收益率仍然走高，投资者表示，基本面表明长期收益率将在更长时间内保持高位。

股市开盘走低：标普500指数期货下跌0.5%，纳斯达克100指数期货下跌1%。

这是一则正在更新的新闻。