Russia seen as boosting combat-drone output, switching attack angles

MILAN — The expansion of Russia’s production of Shahed-type drones is likely to keep growing, with an objective of being able to deploy 2,000 drones in a single strike, according to the assessment of a senior German military official.

In an interview published last week by the Bundeswehr, Germany’s armed forces, the head of the Ministry of Defense’s Planning and Command Office, Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding, discussed Moscow’s scaled-up production capacity.

“The Russians are looking to increase their production capacity – they want to expand drone attacks … The ambition is to have 2,000 drones that can be used simultaneously,” the official said, having just returned from a trip to Ukraine.

Freuding highlighted that the quality and quantity of Russian-produced Shahed drones have improved, with the interval between air strikes decreasing from every 10-12 days last year to now occurring every three to four days, and deploying up to 7,800 drones at peak times.

“The quality of the drones that were copied from the Iranian predecessor models has improved significantly – we assume that the potency has increased by 50%, they are hardened against electronic warfare defenses and harder to defend against,” he said.

According to the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War, Moscow’s target of deploying up to 2,000 unmanned aerial vehicles in a single night could be reached as early as November, if the country’s current growing trend in drone usage persists.

The research group noted that as of last month, the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate, known as GUR, reported that Russian industry could manufacture approximately 170 Shahed-type drones per day.

This week, Russian media channels shared footage reportedly showing a factory where the Geran-2, the Russian designation of Shahed-136 drones, are mass-produced and tested.

Some of the recent tactics Russian forces appear to have adopted to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses consist of flying in more drone swarm formations or operating at higher altitude bands, thus making the systems harder to reach.

Freuding argued that more cost-effective countermeasures are needed by Ukraine to fend off the increased drone attacks, noting that mobile fire units, once highly visible in many parts of the country, “are no longer as effective with their machine guns” against Russian-operated drones at elevated altitudes.

“A Shahed drone costs anything between 30,000-50,000 euros to manufacture depending on the model – it makes sense we’re not fighting them with Patriot missiles, which cost over 5 million … but we need countermeasures [ranging] from two, three to four thousand euros [worth] precisely because Russia is looking to increase their production capacity,” the official said.

Freuding made a name for himself since Russia’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022 as a shrewd land tactics explainer to German and European Internet audiences. He is in line to become the next chief of staff of the Germany Army in September.

Earlier this month, U.S. President Donald Trump signaled that he would be ready to send additional Patriot air defense missiles to Ukraine following Vladimir Putin’s resistance to his attempts at negotiating a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine.

Elisabeth Gosselin-Malo was a Europe correspondent for Defense News. She covers a wide range of topics related to military procurement and international security, and specializes in reporting on the aviation sector. She is based in Milan, Italy.

米兰——据一位德国高级军官评估，俄罗斯沙赫德型无人机的生产规模可能会继续扩大，其目标是在一次打击中部署 2000 架无人机。

德国联邦国防军上周发表的一篇采访中，国防部计划与指挥办公室主任克里斯蒂安·弗罗伊丁少将讨论了莫斯科扩大生产能力的问题。

“俄罗斯人正寻求提高生产能力——他们想扩大无人机袭击……他们的目标是拥有2000架可以同时使用的无人机，”这位刚从乌克兰访问回来的官员说道。

弗罗伊丁强调，俄罗斯生产的“沙赫德”无人机的质量和数量都有所提高，空袭间隔从去年的每 10-12 天减少到现在的每 3-4 天一次，高峰时期最多可部署 7800 架无人机。

他说：“从伊朗前代机型复制而来的无人机的质量有了显著提高——我们估计其性能提高了 50%，它们能够抵御电子战防御，更难防御。”

据美国战争研究所称，如果俄罗斯目前无人机使用量的增长趋势持续下去，莫斯科一夜之间部署多达 2000 架无人机的目标最早可能在 11 月就能实现。

该研究小组指出，截至上个月，乌克兰主要军事情报局（GUR）报告称，俄罗斯工业每天可以生产大约 170 架“沙赫德”型无人机。

本周，俄罗斯媒体频道分享了一段据称显示“沙赫德-136”无人机（俄罗斯称之为“格朗-2”）正在批量生产和测试的工厂的视频。

俄罗斯军队最近似乎采取了一些战术来压制乌克兰的防空系统，包括以更多的无人机集群编队飞行或在更高的空域飞行，从而使乌克兰的防空系统更难被击中。

弗罗伊丁认为，乌克兰需要更具成本效益的反制措施来抵御日益增多的无人机袭击。他指出，曾经在乌克兰许多地区随处可见的移动火力部队，如今“用他们的机枪对付高空俄罗斯操控的无人机已经不再那么有效了”。

“根据型号不同，一架‘沙赫德’无人机的制造成本在3万至5万欧元之间——这就是为什么我们不使用造价超过500万欧元的‘爱国者’导弹来对抗它们的原因……但我们需要价值两三千到四千欧元的反制措施，正是因为俄罗斯正在寻求提高其生产能力，”这位官员说。

自2022年2月俄罗斯入侵乌克兰以来，弗罗伊丁凭借其对陆军战术的精辟解读，在德国和欧洲互联网上声名鹊起。他有望于9月出任德国陆军参谋长。

本月初，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，在弗拉基米尔·普京拒绝他试图促成俄乌停火的努力后，他准备向乌克兰增派“爱国者”防空导弹。

伊丽莎白·戈斯林-马洛曾任《防务新闻》欧洲通讯员。她的报道涵盖军事采购和国际安全等广泛领域，尤其擅长航空领域的报道。她常驻意大利米兰。