Labor Day gas has never been this expensive. Trump is scrambling for answers

Charles-McClintock Wilson/urPhoto/AP

Americans will likely face the highest Labor Day gas prices on record this holiday weekend. It’s another blow to a “drill, baby, drill” president who campaigned on affordable energy.

President Donald Trump’s war with Iran isn’t just driving up prices at the gas pump . Diesel, a crucial fuel at the heart of the modern economy, is on the verge of surpassing Biden-era all-time highs. Jet fuel costs have skyrocketed, too, leading airlines to hike airfare and baggage fees while cutting less profitable flights.

The energy sticker shock has put pressure on the Trump administration to come up with answers ahead of the midterms.

Trump took a flurry of actions this week: He called refining executives to the White House, unveiled a blockbuster oil deal with Venezuela and launched new air strikes in response to Iranian attacks on tankers trying to navigate the Strait of Hormuz.

Before this, Trump already eased regulations to speed up deliveries of fuel and presided over a historic release of emergency oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which hasn’t been this empty since the early 1980s .

But the reality is that there are no easy solutions to this problem vexing the White House.

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US refiners are running as hard as they can to make up for the loss of refining capacity elsewhere. Venezuela is unlikely to deliver a major increase in oil supplies for many years – perhaps not until 2035.

“Realistically, the administration will have a tough time doing much about gasoline in the short term. They’ve already pulled most of the levers they can,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.

Vice President JD Vance on Thursday declined to set a timeline for when gas prices will drop back to pre-war levels.

“I’m not going to make a promise about when it’s going to return to $3,” Vance said during a White House press briefing.

After an early summer lull, gas prices climbed again and hit a three-month high Thursday.

GasBuddy expects gas prices will be at least $4.03 a gallon on Labor Day, compared with just $3.16 last Labor Day. This would surpass the prior record of $3.83 for the holiday set in 2012.

“The pain is adding up. Unlike in 2022 (when Russia invaded Ukraine), the pressure has lingered for six months,” said Patrick De Haan, GasBuddy’s head of petroleum analysis. “And there’s no schedule for when there will be relief.”

Of course, gas prices don’t seem nearly as high when accounting for inflation and wage gains.

When adjusted for inflation, the record high for Labor Day gas prices was in 2008 at $5.63 a gallon using 2026 dollars. On that basis, Labor Day gas prices were higher in 2005 after Hurricane Katrina and in 2022 compared to today.

Still, drivers don’t adjust for inflation when filling up their tanks. The price of gas has a large psychological impact on consumers and is often viewed as a barometer for the cost of living.

Americans are paying an extra $97 billion since the Iran war started due to higher gas and diesel prices, according to Brown University’s Climate Solutions Lab. That amounts to more than $740 per US household.

After the Trump administration invaded Venezuela , Trump officials hailed the US-Venezuela oil deal signed this week as a gamechanger. Researchers caution, however, that it will take many years – perhaps even decades – for Venezuela to meaningfully add to the world’s oil supply.

After the deal was unveiled, Rystad Energy projected Venezuela’s oil production will roughly double to 2.3 million barrels – but not until 2035. And returning Venezuela to its 1990s heyday output above 3 million barrels per day? That’s not expected until 2050.

“For a long-term deal to work, the reality is that it requires stability and security, both are in short supply,” Jan Stuart, global energy economist at Piper Sandler, wrote in a note to clients this week .

Even if Venezuela delivers more oil to the global market in the near term, three of the four global refining hubs are in crisis .

“Just because Venezuelan oil is cheap, doesn’t mean you can just dump crude into your car, truck or plane. It’s got to be refined and that is the biggest chokehold in the economy,” GasBuddy’s De Haan said.

A White House official said Trump and refining executives this week discussed a desire to ramp up US refining capacity. But that’s easier said than done.

Refineries are very complex facilities that take years, and perhaps tens of billions of dollars, to build – and that’s a tough sell.

“Returns are great right now for refineries. These companies are minting money,” said Pickering. “But I don’t know that anyone will trust this is the way it will be for the next five or six years.”

The refining shortage helps explain why diesel, unlike crude oil, has surged to near its all-time highs.

The price of diesel has skyrocketed more than 60% so far this year, leaving it on track for the biggest annual increase on record, according to a CNN review of AAA data that begins in 2000.

Gasoline gets more of the attention because of the consumer impact, but diesel powers trucks, tractors, trains, boats and construction vehicles at the heart of the modern economy.

“Gasoline is the sexy, visible fuel. Diesel is the silent workhorse. It’s the lifeblood of the economy,” said Bob McNally, founder and president of Rapidan Energy Group.

Meanwhile, the war continues to drag on, like with this week’s flurry of attacks.

“We don’t think Iran is out of options,” Rapidan’s McNally said. “Tehran is not ready to roll over and capitulate. This is likely to get worse before it gets better.”

CNN’s Chris Isidore contributed to this report.

查尔斯·麦克林托克·威尔逊/urPhoto/美联社

美国人很可能将在今年的劳动节周末面临有史以来最高的汽油价格。这对那位曾以“钻井加油”为竞选纲领、承诺提供价格实惠能源的总统来说，无疑是又一次打击。

特朗普总统对伊朗的战争不仅仅推高了汽油价格。柴油作为现代经济的核心燃料，其价格即将超过拜登执政时期的历史最高水平。航空燃油成本也大幅飙升，导致航空公司不得不提高机票和行李费，同时削减利润较低的航班。

能源价格的飙升给特朗普政府带来了压力，迫使其在中期选举前拿出应对方案。

本周，特朗普采取了一系列行动：他召集炼油企业高管到白宫，公布了与委内瑞拉的一项重磅石油协议，并针对伊朗袭击试图通过霍尔木兹海峡的油轮，发动了新的空袭。

在此之前，特朗普已经放宽了监管，加快了燃料的交付速度，并主持了从战略石油储备中历史性地释放紧急石油，该储备自 20 世纪 80 年代初以来从未如此空虚。

但现实情况是，困扰白宫的这个问题并没有简单的解决办法。

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美国炼油商正全力运转，以弥补其他地区炼油产能的损失。委内瑞拉在未来很多年内不太可能大幅增加石油供应——或许要等到2035年。

“实际上，政府短期内很难在汽油价格问题上有所作为。他们已经用尽了大部分手段，”皮克林能源合伙公司创始人兼首席投资官丹·皮克林表示。

副总统 JD Vance 周四拒绝设定汽油价格何时回落到战前水平的时间表。

“我不会承诺什么时候能回到3美元，”万斯在白宫新闻发布会上说。

初夏时节价格一度趋于平静，但随后汽油价格再次攀升，并在周四创下三个月来的新高。

GasBuddy预计，劳动节当天汽油价格至少为每加仑4.03美元，而去年劳动节的价格仅为每加仑3.16美元。这将超过2012年创下的劳动节汽油价格纪录3.83美元。

“痛苦与日俱增。与2022年（俄罗斯入侵乌克兰）不同，这次的压力已经持续了六个月，”GasBuddy石油分析主管帕特里克·德哈恩表示。“而且，何时才能缓解这种情况，目前还没有时间表。”

当然，考虑到通货膨胀和工资增长，汽油价格似乎并没有那么高。

经通货膨胀调整后，2008 年劳动节汽油价格创历史新高，以 2026 年美元计算为每加仑 5.63 美元。以此为基准，2005 年卡特里娜飓风过后以及 2022 年劳动节的汽油价格均高于今日。

然而，司机们在加油时并不会考虑通货膨胀因素。汽油价格对消费者有着巨大的心理影响，并且通常被视为生活成本的晴雨表。

据布朗大学气候解决方案实验室称，自伊朗战争爆发以来，由于汽油和柴油价格上涨，美国人已额外支付了970亿美元。这相当于每个美国家庭超过740美元。

特朗普政府入侵委内瑞拉后，特朗普政府官员称本周签署的美委石油协议将改变游戏规则。然而，研究人员警告说，委内瑞拉需要很多年——甚至几十年——才能真正为世界石油供应做出实质性贡献。

协议公布后，Rystad Energy预测委内瑞拉的石油产量将大致翻一番，达到230万桶——但这要到2035年才能实现。而要让委内瑞拉的石油产量恢复到上世纪90年代的鼎盛时期，即每天超过300万桶？预计要到2050年才能实现。

Piper Sandler 的全球能源经济学家 Jan Stuart 本周在给客户的一份报告中写道：“要达成长期协议，现实情况是它需要稳定和安全，而这两者都十分匮乏。”

即使委内瑞拉在短期内向全球市场供应更多石油，但全球四大炼油中心中有三个正处于危机之中。

GasBuddy公司的德哈恩表示：“委内瑞拉石油价格低廉，但这并不意味着你可以直接把原油加到汽车、卡车或飞机上。它必须经过提炼，而这正是经济中最大的瓶颈。”

一位白宫官员表示，特朗普本周与炼油企业高管讨论了提高美国炼油产能的意愿。但这说起来容易做起来难。

炼油厂是非常复杂的设施，需要数年时间，可能还要花费数百亿美元才能建成——这很难让人接受。

“炼油厂目前的收益非常可观，这些公司赚得盆满钵满，”皮克林说。“但我不知道未来五六年里，是否有人会相信这种情况会一直持续下去。”

炼油短缺有助于解释为什么柴油价格不像原油那样飙升至历史最高水平。

据 CNN 对 AAA 自 2000 年以来的数据进行分析后发现，今年柴油价格已飙升超过 60%，有望创下有史以来最大的年度涨幅。

汽油因其对消费者的影响而受到更多关注，但柴油为现代经济的核心——卡车、拖拉机、火车、轮船和工程车辆——提供动力。

“汽油是引人注目、人人都能看到的燃料。柴油则是默默无闻的动力源泉。它是经济的命脉，”Rapidan Energy Group 的创始人兼总裁鲍勃·麦克纳利说道。

与此同时，战争仍在继续，就像本周发生的一系列袭击事件一样。

“我们认为伊朗并非束手无策，”拉皮丹研究所的麦克纳利表示。“德黑兰不会轻易屈服投降。情况很可能会先恶化后好转。”

CNN的克里斯·伊西多尔对本报道亦有贡献。