Trump wants to take a page out of the Biden energy playbook

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In January 2024, then-presidential candidate Donald Trump blasted the Biden administration for freezing approvals for new plants to export US liquefied natural gas.

When he won the election, in part by slamming the Biden-Harris “war on energy,” Trump vowed in his second inaugural address: “We will bring prices down… and export American energy all over the world.”

He kept that promise, undoing the Biden-era LNG export permitting pause through an executive order just hours into his first day on the job.

Now fast-forward more than a year and a half later, he’s considering taking a page out of the Biden playbook: limiting US energy exports.

Trump has been under fire for months over high energy prices unleashed by the war with Iran. This week, he said he would like to ban US diesel exports as Republicans complain sky-high prices are hurting American farmers, truckers, construction workers and countless others.

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Trump’s willingness to even entertain a reversal on a key issue he hammered Biden on underscores the intensifying political and economic pressures facing the administration ahead of the midterms.

“The hypocrisy here is stunning,” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, told CNN. “Due to the upcoming election, individuals who are otherwise free-market purists have all of a sudden found socialism.”

The United States is now the world’s largest exporter of natural gas as well as oil and refined products (gasoline, diesel and other fuel). Experts warn a US ban wouldn’t just fail to make diesel cheap again , but would also cause refiners to produce less fuel. This would likely chill investment and provide an opening for US adversaries in the global market.

“This is a classic lose-lose proposition. And this is what populism looks like, whether it’s the current right-wing flavor of the month or the left-wing version building up,” Brusuelas said.

An industry source told CNN on Thursday that US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has contacted US refiners to weigh support for voluntarily limiting diesel exports.

Earlier in the day, a White House official told CNN that no official policy announcements have been made. But the official added that Trump “wants to see gas prices at the pump fall and is evaluating all the options on the table.”

The oil industry has broken sharply with the Trump White House on the issue, resurfacing arguments against export bans that were once reserved for the Biden administration.

“Bad policy doesn’t become good policy just because the administration changes,” Mike Sommers, president and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, told CNN in a statement.

“Restricting US LNG exports was bad policy under President Biden,” he added, using the acronym for liquified natural gas, “and it would be bad policy on diesel under President Trump. Changing the product doesn’t change the economics.”

Even some former Trump officials have been left dizzy by the sudden shift on energy exports.

Dan Brouillette, former energy secretary during the end of Trump’s first term, told CNN that the apparent reversal on export bans is causing “confusion” in the industry.

“It’s one of those ideas that sounds good on the surface, but when you dig into it, it makes very little economic sense,” he added .

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‘Makes very little economic sense’: Ex-Trump energy secretary warns Trump against diesel export ban

Of course, the United States is dealing with a different situation than a couple years ago.

In 2024, Biden officials responded to concerns from environmentalists about the planet-warming dangers of new natural gas production.

“While MAGA Republicans willfully deny the urgency of the climate crisis, condemning the American people to a dangerous future, my Administration will not be complacent,” Biden said at the time.

Now, the focus is on the historic diesel spike, which is driving up the cost of living just as inflation-weary voters head to the polls .

“Oftentimes in politics, where you stand is based on where you sit,” said Ed Mills, Washington policy analyst at financial firm Raymond James. “We would not be having this conversation if diesel prices weren’t at all-time highs with the midterms a month away and states like Iowa potentially deciding the majority of the next Senate.”

Diesel is a crucial fuel powering tractors – especially during the harvest season in the fall. The rise in costs “comes at the worst possible time,” Mills said.

Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley has led the charge for a US diesel export ban, saying on social media that record diesel prices are “killing” the income of farmers.

Energy market researchers have loudly warned against a US diesel ban, arguing it would cause US refiners to process less. This would cause oil prices to rise for gasoline, diesel and jet fuel.

Natasha Kaneva, head of global commodities strategy at JPMorgan, told clients on Thursday that a 30-day diesel export ban would initially cause diesel prices to drop – but then refiners would run out of room to store all their excess diesel.

“Since a refinery can’t simply stop making diesel while continuing to produce the same amount of gasoline, crude runs eventually would have to fall,” Kaneva wrote in a report titled “Day 31 and beyond.” “At this point, some of the initial price relief would begin to reverse – the opposite of what policymakers want.”

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Kaneva cautioned that America’s vast refining system is far larger than what’s needed to serve the domestic market because it serves the world, too. She noted US refiners have been able to fill a gap left by plunging exports out of the Middle East and Russia.

“This is an extraordinary strategic asset,” Kaneva wrote. “What begins as an effort to protect US consumers could ultimately erode the very refining capacity that protects them – and with it, a strategic advantage the United States has spent decades building.”

Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, said a US diesel export ban would put the United States “behind the eight-ball” on gasoline – the fuel consumers care most about.

“It’s pretty ironic to see the Trump administration at least throw around the concept of a diesel export ban,” Kloza said. “But it’s universally recognized that a ban would have a harsh impact. We’d be looking at a nuclear winter in terms of gas prices during Christmas season.”

Scott Lincicome, vice president at the Cato Institute and an adjunct professor at Duke Law School, told CNN that a diesel ban would be a “worse version of the LNG pause” under Biden.

Lincicome said the Biden move was “bad policy” but only impacted future supply and investment, while leaving existing LNG exports untouched.

“A complete ban on diesel exports, by contrast, would have far more immediate and far-reaching harms – while also hurting future investment,” he said. “Hopefully, President Trump won’t follow in Biden’s footsteps.”

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2024 年 1 月，时任总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普抨击拜登政府冻结了美国液化天然气出口新工厂的审批。

特朗普赢得大选后，部分原因是抨击拜登-哈里斯的“能源战争”。他在第二次就职演说中誓言：“我们将降低价格……并将美国能源出口到世界各地。”

他信守承诺，上任仅几个小时就通过行政命令撤销了拜登时代暂停液化天然气出口许可的决定。

一年半后，他现在正考虑效仿拜登的做法：限制美国能源出口。

几个月来，特朗普一直因伊朗战争引发的高能源价格而饱受抨击。本周，他表示希望禁止美国柴油出口，共和党人则抱怨高昂的油价正在损害美国农民、卡车司机、建筑工人以及其他无数人的利益。

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特朗普甚至愿意考虑在自己曾猛烈抨击拜登的关键问题上改变立场，这凸显了本届政府在中期选举前面临的日益加剧的政治和经济压力。

RSM美国首席经济学家乔·布鲁苏拉斯告诉CNN：“这种虚伪令人震惊。由于即将到来的选举，那些原本是自由市场纯粹主义者的人突然都信奉社会主义了。”

美国目前是全球最大的天然气、石油及成品油（汽油、柴油和其他燃料）出口国。专家警告称，美国的禁令不仅无法使柴油价格再次低廉，还会导致炼油厂减产。这很可能抑制投资，并为美国的竞争对手在全球市场提供可乘之机。

“这是一个典型的双输局面。这就是民粹主义的本质，无论是当下流行的右翼民粹主义，还是正在兴起的左翼民粹主义，”布鲁苏拉斯说道。

一位业内人士周四告诉 CNN，美国能源部长克里斯·赖特已与美国炼油商联系，权衡是否支持自愿限制柴油出口。

当天早些时候，一位白宫官员告诉CNN，目前尚未发布任何正式政策声明。但这位官员补充说，特朗普“希望看到汽油价格下降，并且正在评估所有可行的方案”。

石油行业在这一问题上与特朗普白宫彻底决裂，重新提出了反对出口禁令的论点，而这些论点曾经是拜登政府才会提出的。

“糟糕的政策不会因为政府换届就变成好的政策，”美国石油协会主席兼首席执行官迈克·萨默斯在一份声明中告诉 CNN。

他补充说：“拜登总统时期限制美国液化天然气出口是一项糟糕的政策，而特朗普总统时期限制柴油出口也将是一项糟糕的政策。改变产品并不会改变经济效益。”

就连一些前特朗普政府官员也对能源出口政策的突然转变感到困惑不已。

特朗普第一任期末期的前能源部长丹·布鲁耶特告诉 CNN，出口禁令的明显逆转正在给业界造成“混乱”。

“这种想法表面上听起来不错，但当你深入研究时，就会发现它几乎没有任何经济意义，”他补充道。

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“这在经济上毫无意义”：前特朗普能源部长警告特朗普不要禁止柴油出口

当然，美国目前面临的情况与几年前截然不同。

2024年，拜登政府官员回应了环保人士对新增天然气生产可能造成全球变暖的担忧。

“尽管MAGA共和党人故意否认气候危机的紧迫性，将美国人民推向危险的未来，但我的政府绝不会掉以轻心，”拜登当时说道。

现在，人们的关注点在于柴油价格的历史性飙升，这推高了生活成本，而此时，饱受通胀之苦的选民正前往投票站。

“在政治领域，你的立场往往取决于你的位置，”金融公司雷蒙德·詹姆斯（Raymond James）的华盛顿政策分析师埃德·米尔斯（Ed Mills）表示。“如果不是柴油价格创历史新高，中期选举还有一个月就要举行，而像爱荷华州这样的州可能会决定下届参议院的多数席位，我们就不会进行这场讨论了。”

柴油是拖拉机的重要燃料，尤其是在秋季收割季节。米尔斯说，柴油价格上涨“来得正是时候”。

共和党参议员查克·格拉斯利带头呼吁禁止美国柴油出口，他在社交媒体上表示，创纪录的柴油价格正在“扼杀”农民的收入。

能源市场研究人员强烈警告美国不要禁止柴油进口，他们认为这将导致美国炼油厂减少柴油加工量，进而推高汽油、柴油和航空煤油的价格。

摩根大通全球大宗商品策略主管娜塔莎·卡内瓦周四告诉客户，为期 30 天的柴油出口禁令最初会导致柴油价格下降，但随后炼油商将没有足够的空间储存所有过剩的柴油。

“由于炼油厂不可能在继续生产相同数量汽油的同时停止生产柴油，原油加工量最终必然会下降，”卡内瓦在一份题为《第31天及以后》的报告中写道。“届时，最初的一些价格缓解措施将开始逆转——这与政策制定者的意愿恰恰相反。”

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卡内瓦提醒说，美国庞大的炼油系统规模远远超过国内市场所需，因为它也服务于全球市场。她指出，由于中东和俄罗斯的出口大幅下降，美国炼油商已经能够填补由此造成的缺口。

“这是一项非凡的战略资产，”卡内瓦写道。“最初旨在保护美国消费者的努力，最终可能会削弱保护他们的炼油能力——进而削弱美国花费数十年时间建立的战略优势。”

海湾石油公司首席能源顾问汤姆·克洛扎表示，美国禁止柴油出口将使美国在汽油（消费者最关心的燃料）方面“处于不利地位”。

克洛扎说：“看到特朗普政府至少提出过柴油出口禁令的想法，真是颇具讽刺意味。但人们普遍认为，禁令会带来严重的后果。圣诞节期间，汽油价格将会跌至谷底，就像核冬天一样。”

卡托研究所副总裁兼杜克大学法学院兼职教授斯科特·林西科姆告诉 CNN，如果拜登上台，柴油禁令将是“比暂停液化天然气更糟糕的版本”。

林西科姆表示，拜登的举措是“糟糕的政策”，但只会影响未来的供应和投资，而不会影响现有的液化天然气出口。

他说：“相比之下，全面禁止柴油出口会造成更直接、更深远的危害，同时也会损害未来的投资。希望特朗普总统不会步拜登的后尘。”