Iran war: Why US midterms could be a pivotal moment

Rising prices and opposition to war may pressure Trump to de-escalate until after the midterms, analysts say.

US Vice President JD Vance speaks during a news briefing in the James S Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House in Washington, DC, on September 3, 2026 [Brendan Smialowski/AFP]

As the United States and Iran exchanged attacks this week, one date was increasingly looming over the conflict.

The US midterm elections on November 3 could prove a pivotal moment in the war, as senior advisers to President Donald Trump seek to prevent the conflict from returning to all-out war before the polls when Republicans will be defending narrow majorities in both houses of Congress.

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The push for restraint comes as Washington turns to economic pressure on Iran instead of military force. In August, the Trump administration announced its so-called “ Economic D-Day ”, imposing sanctions on 60 entities that it says facilitate oil revenues for trade with Iran and threatening other countries doing business with Tehran with secondary sanctions .

At the same time, the US naval blockade of Iranian ports in and around the Strait of Hormuz continues to exert pressure on Tehran’s oil exports.

Vice President JD Vance has meanwhile sought to downplay the war, which the US and Israel launched with attacks on Iran on February 28, as rising fuel prices and public opposition in the US threaten to become political liabilities for Republicans before the vote.

But there are clear limits to the restraint the Trump administration can show, with US forces continuing to strike Iran in recent days, and US leaders insist that further military action remains an option. Vance said this week that “everything that could happen is on the table,” including economic, military, diplomatic and covert pressure.

That leaves the coming two months as a particularly tricky period to navigate. Washington will want to avoid an all-out war while ratcheting up economic pressure, but Iran has its own calculations and could respond militarily anyway, potentially forcing the US into an escalation it would rather avoid before Americans go to the polls.

Here’s what we know.

Why do the midterms matter for Trump?

The midterms will determine whether the Republican Party can retain its narrow control of Congress. If the war escalates again before then, that could persuade more people to vote against the Trump administration.

Containing the fighting until November, therefore, may help prevent an already deeply unpopular war from dominating the political agenda.

A late-August Reuters/Ipsos poll suggested that just 31 percent of Americans support the war, compared with 63 percent who oppose it. Trump’s approval rating has also fallen since the outbreak of hostilities, from 40 percent to 33 percent, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling.

Observers say the Trump administration did not expect things to get to this point.

In early March, Trump insisted the war would last for “four or five weeks”. Instead, the conflict has dragged on, and unexpected consequences – including Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz causing energy prices to spike – have made it even more unpopular with US households.

US diesel prices hit a record high on Thursday, surpassing the previous peak recorded in 2022, as higher crude oil prices and refining bottlenecks drove up the cost of a fuel that underpins much of the US economy.

That is particularly damaging for a president who campaigned partly on a promise to dramatically reduce energy costs – as well as not to get involved in “unnecessary” wars.

The fallout from the war has not stopped at the petrol pump. Sustained increases in fuel and transport costs feed into the price of groceries, manufactured goods and other everyday purchases – potentially worsening inflation when Democrats are making the cost of living a defining issue for the midterm campaign.

A Politico poll conducted in August suggested that 61 percent of Americans believe the Iran war had made life more expensive for their families, four percentage points higher than a month earlier.

Can Trump keep the war contained until November?

There are signs that his administration is trying to do exactly that.

In recent weeks, Washington has intensified its campaign to economically isolate Iran, threatening severe sanctions against countries that continue trading with it while maintaining military pressure around the Strait of Hormuz.

With strikes on Iran earlier this week, Trump has also indicated he is willing to engage in sporadic attacks , while trying to keep the war from escalating back to all-out conflict.

Senior administration officials have simultaneously sought to play down the scale of the military confrontation. Asked at a White House briefing whether the Iran war would be resolved before the midterm elections, Vice President JD Vance said he “wouldn’t call it a war” and claimed there was “no active shooting right now”.

Asked when Iran would stop attacking commercial shipping, Vance said: “You would have to ask the Iranians.” He also said the conflict was having “less effect day by day” on global energy markets. The US claims it is escorting about 30 ships per night through the Strait of Hormuz – and officials claimed some 18 million barrels of oil were transported through on Tuesday this week. However, shipping data does not appear to fully support this claim.

Trying to maintain a strategy of “no war, no peace” with sporadic attacks is high-risk, analysts have warned. Negar Mortazavi, senior fellow at the Washington, DC-based Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera this week: “Tehran will not capitulate under [economic] pressure. Both sides may believe they can control the escalation, but every new exchange increases the risk of a wider regional conflict.”

One of the US attacks this week is also believed to have hit a civilian home where a wedding was taking place in Kuhestak, southern Iran, killing at least four people, including children, and wounding dozens.

Furthermore, The Washington Post reported on Sunday that senior Army, Navy and Air Force leaders have warned Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth in a written assessment that continuing the war at its current pace is unsustainable and risks undermining US military readiness in other parts of the world.

Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the US-based Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, told Al Jazeera that this week’s attacks point to a US strategy that remains deeply unsettled.

“I think it’s quite likely that what we’re seeing right now is just complete military, strategic disarray on the American position in which the positions, the actions, the tactics, the strategies keep on getting changed,” Parsi said.

Washington had imposed sweeping economic sanctions on Iran in an apparent attempt to make further military intervention unnecessary, he noted. “Seven days later, the US is back into bombing Iran.”

The US appears to be “jumping from one position to the other”, he added.

What are Iran’s calculations?

While the most recent attacks between the US and Iran have been less intense than the heavy exchanges seen in the early weeks of the war and during the two flare-ups in July, the risk of escalation is high. And it may be in Iran’s interests for that to happen sooner rather than later.

Iran has excelled at the use of asymmetric warfare against an enemy with considerable military might – using cheap, mass-produced drones to exhaust US supplies of very expensive defensive systems, and launching attacks on US allies around the Gulf, sowing disharmony.

In particular, Tehran has demonstrated that it can severely disrupt maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, causing global economic consequences.

Continued Iranian attacks on US or regional military assets, shipping or energy infrastructure would place pressure on Washington to retaliate more strongly than via the few attacks it has carried out this week, creating the possibility of an escalatory cycle that could return the two countries to a much wider war regardless of the White House’s electoral calculations.

Furthermore, Washington’s economic strategy to isolate Tehran – an attempt to move away from open warfare – may in fact create a greater Iranian incentive to retaliate.

Parsi told Al Jazeera that Iranian officials appear to believe Trump ultimately intends to restart the war on a larger scale but is just waiting until after the midterms.

That creates a potentially dangerous calculation for Tehran, where it is better to escalate now – while Trump is at his most politically vulnerable. “The reaction of the Iranians to that might be to actually trigger the war themselves early right before the midterm elections in order to maximise the pain that will impose on the US president,” Parsi said.

What happens after November?

Reuters reported on Wednesday that senior White House officials are already considering whether to intensify military operations against Iran after the November 3 vote, although no decision has been made on returning to full-scale conflict, it reported.

A Republican victory in the midterms could give Trump greater political room for this option, particularly if the administration interprets the result as approval – or at least lack of enough disapproval – for the war despite the economic consequences for voters.

A Republican defeat presents a more complicated picture, however. On the one hand, losing one or both chambers of Congress will constrain the administration, as Congress controls government funding. Democratic control of the House or Senate would also give Trump’s opponents greater scope to hold hearings, investigate the US conduct of the war and challenge requests for additional military spending.

Conversely, with Trump no longer facing a congressional election, he may feel less pressure to contain the war, experts fear.

Parsi warned that an electoral defeat could therefore have the opposite effect to what Tehran might expect.

“I’m not so sure that it’s going to pay off necessarily for the Iranians because a Trump that is humiliated at the elections, who is faced with a Democratic [majority] House [of Representatives] and potentially a Democratic Senate, may also become a much more desperate and reckless president,” he said.

分析人士称，物价上涨和民众对战争的反对可能会迫使特朗普在期中选举后才缓和局势。

2026年9月3日，美国副总统JD Vance在华盛顿特区白宫詹姆斯·S·布雷迪新闻发布室举行新闻发布会。[Brendan Smialowski/AFP]

本周，随着美国和伊朗互相发动袭击，一个日期在这场冲突中变得越来越迫近。

11 月 3 日的美国中期选举可能成为这场战争的关键时刻，因为唐纳德·特朗普总统的高级顾问们正试图阻止冲突在投票前再次演变成全面战争，届时共和党将在国会两院捍卫其微弱的多数席位。

美国副总统万斯拒绝给出结束伊朗战争的时间表（共四条，此为第一条）

问题 2（共 4 题）：特朗普为何会见反犹太复国主义的犹太领袖？

密苏里州最高法院阻止特朗普支持的选区地图在11月中期选举中使用（共4条记录，此为第3条）

列表 4/4：在黎巴嫩南部，以色列的拆迁行动“日夜不停”进行。

在华盛顿转而对伊朗施加经济压力而非军事力量之际，各方呼吁保持克制。今年8月，特朗普政府宣布了所谓的“经济决战日”，对60家实体实施制裁，称这些实体为伊朗的石油贸易提供了便利，并威胁要对其他与德黑兰有业务往来的国家实施二级制裁。

与此同时，美国对霍尔木兹海峡及其周边伊朗港口的海上封锁继续对德黑兰的石油出口施加压力。

与此同时，副总统 JD Vance 试图淡化这场战争。这场战争是由美国和以色列于 2 月 28 日对伊朗发动的袭击而引发的。不断上涨的燃油价格和美国民众的反对声浪有可能在投票前成为共和党的政治包袱。

但特朗普政府所能展现的克制显然有限，美军近日仍在继续打击伊朗，美国领导人也坚称进一步采取军事行动仍然是一个选项。万斯本周表示，“一切皆有可能”，包括经济、军事、外交和秘密施压。

这使得未来两个月成为一段尤为棘手的时期。华盛顿希望在加大经济压力的同时避免全面战争，但伊朗自有其考量，并可能采取军事回应，从而迫使美国在大选前陷入其极力避免的局势升级。

以下是我们目前所了解的情况。

为什么中期选举对特朗普如此重要？

中期选举将决定共和党能否保住其在国会的微弱控制权。如果战争在此之前再次升级，可能会促使更多人投票反对特朗普政府。

因此，将战斗控制在 11 月之前，或许有助于防止一场本已极不受欢迎的战争主导政治议程。

路透社/益普索8月下旬的一项民调显示，仅有31%的美国人支持这场战争，而反对者则高达63%。路透社/益普索的民调还显示，自战争爆发以来，特朗普的支持率也从40%下降至33%。

观察人士表示，特朗普政府没想到事态会发展到这种地步。

3月初，特朗普坚称这场战争只会持续“四到五周”。然而，冲突却持续不断，并产生了意想不到的后果——包括伊朗封锁霍尔木兹海峡导致能源价格飙升——这使得这场战争在美国民众中更加不受欢迎。

周四，美国柴油价格创下历史新高，超过了 2022 年创下的前一个峰值，原因是原油价格上涨和炼油瓶颈推高了支撑美国经济大部分的燃料成本。

对于一位竞选时承诺大幅降低能源成本，并且不卷入“不必要的”战争的总统来说，这尤其具有破坏性。

战争的影响远不止体现在汽油价格上。燃油和运输成本的持续上涨推高了食品杂货、制成品和其他日常用品的价格——这可能会加剧通货膨胀，而民主党人正将生活成本问题作为中期选举的关键议题。

Politico 8 月份进行的一项民意调查显示，61% 的美国人认为伊朗战争使他们的家庭生活成本更高，比一个月前高出 4 个百分点。

特朗普能否将战争控制在11月之前？

种种迹象表明，他的政府正试图这样做。

最近几周，华盛顿加大了对伊朗进行经济孤立力度的行动，威胁要对继续与伊朗进行贸易的国家实施严厉制裁，同时在霍尔木兹海峡周围保持军事压力。

本周早些时候对伊朗发动袭击后，特朗普也表示他愿意进行零星袭击，同时努力防止战争升级为全面冲突。

与此同时，高级政府官员试图淡化军事对抗的规模。在白宫简报会上，当被问及伊朗战争是否会在中期选举前解决时，副总统万斯表示他“不会称之为战争”，并声称“目前没有发生任何枪击事件”。

当被问及伊朗何时停止袭击商船时，万斯表示：“你得去问伊朗人。”他还说，这场冲突对全球能源市场的影响“正在逐日减弱”。美国声称每晚护送约30艘船只通过霍尔木兹海峡，官员们还声称本周二有约1800万桶石油经由此海峡运输。然而，航运数据似乎并不完全支持这一说法。

分析人士警告称，试图在零星袭击中维持“不战不和”战略风险极高。位于华盛顿特区的国际政策中心高级研究员内加尔·莫尔塔扎维本周告诉半岛电视台：“德黑兰不会屈服于（经济）压力。双方可能都认为可以控制局势升级，但每一次新的交火都会增加地区冲突升级的风险。”

据信，本周美国发动的袭击中，有一架飞机击中了伊朗南部库赫斯塔克的一处民宅，当时那里正在举行婚礼，造成至少四人死亡，其中包括儿童，另有数十人受伤。

此外，《华盛顿邮报》周日报道称，陆军、海军和空军高级领导人在一份书面评估中警告五角大楼负责人皮特·赫格塞斯，以目前的速度继续这场战争是不可持续的，并且有可能破坏美国在世界其他地区的军事战备。

美国昆西负责任治国研究所执行副总裁特里塔·帕尔西告诉半岛电视台，本周的袭击表明美国的战略仍然非常不稳定。

帕尔西说：“我认为我们现在看到的很可能是美军在军事和战略上彻底的混乱，其立场、行动、战术和战略都在不断变化。”

他指出，华盛顿对伊朗实施了全面的经济制裁，显然是为了避免进一步的军事干预。“七天后，美国又开始轰炸伊朗。”

他补充说，美国似乎“正在从一个立场跳到另一个立场”。

伊朗的考量是什么？

尽管美伊之间最近的冲突强度不及战争初期以及7月份两次冲突爆发时的激烈交火，但局势升级的风险依然很高。而且，对伊朗而言，冲突越早发生或许越符合其利益。

伊朗擅长对付拥有强大军事力量的敌人，运用不对称战争手段——利用廉价的大规模生产的无人机消耗美国昂贵的防御系统，并对海湾地区的美国盟友发动袭击，制造不和。

尤其是德黑兰已经证明，它可以严重扰乱霍尔木兹海峡的海上交通，造成全球经济后果。

伊朗若继续袭击美国或地区军事资产、航运或能源基础设施，将迫使华盛顿采取比本周少数几次袭击更为强烈的报复行动，从而可能引发局势升级，使两国重回更大规模的战争，而这与白宫的选举考量无关。

此外，华盛顿孤立德黑兰的经济战略——试图避免公开战争——实际上可能会增加伊朗进行报复的动机。

帕尔西告诉半岛电视台，伊朗官员似乎认为特朗普最终打算更大规模地重启战争，只是在等待中期选举之后。

这对德黑兰来说可能是一个危险的抉择，他们认为现在升级冲突更为有利——因为特朗普目前正处于政治上最脆弱的时期。“伊朗人对此的反应可能是，在中期选举前夕主动挑起战争，以最大限度地打击美国总统，”帕尔西说。

11月之后会发生什么？

路透社周三报道称，白宫高级官员已经在考虑11月3日投票后是否加强对伊朗的军事行动，但尚未决定是否恢复全面冲突。

共和党在中期选举中获胜可能会给特朗普带来更大的政治空间来采取这一选项，尤其是在政府将选举结果解读为对战争的认可（或者至少缺乏足够的反对意见）的情况下，尽管这场战争会给选民带来经济后果。

然而，共和党的败选则会带来更为复杂的局面。一方面，失去国会两院或其中一院的控制权将制约政府，因为国会掌控着政府拨款。另一方面，民主党若控制众议院或参议院，也将赋予特朗普的反对者更大的权力，让他们能够举行听证会，调查美国在战争中的行为，并对增加军费开支的要求提出质疑。

相反，专家担心，由于特朗普不再面临国会选举，他可能会感到控制战争的压力较小。

帕尔西警告说，选举失败可能会产生与德黑兰预期相反的效果。

“我不太确定这对伊朗人来说是否一定会有回报，因为如果特朗普在选举中惨败，面对民主党控制的众议院，甚至可能还有民主党控制的参议院，他可能会变得更加绝望和鲁莽，”他说。