One ship paid $4 million to skip the Panama Canal line. Here’s why that matters for your wallet

In early August, dozens of vessels were waiting for their turn in the Panama Canal . Some had been stuck for more than a week. One chemical tanker has been there over a month. Then on August 10, a large container ship paid a staggering $4 million to fast-track its trip — leaving others, either unwilling or unable to shell out that kind of sum, in maritime limbo.

Logistics company Flexport, which had 30 containers aboard that lucky ship, said the backlog at the Panama Canal’s Pacific end is the worst since May, when wait times increased because of conflict over the Strait of Hormuz .

But now this commercial stress is being amplified by an unusually strong climate event: El Niño. Consumers are expected to take the hit.

El Niño is raising the cost of shipping. CNN's Senior News Desk Reporter Hira Humayun explains how this will affect American consumers.

“The ripple effects are significant through supply chains and all the way to consumer prices at stores,” said Benjamin Gedan, senior fellow and director of the Latin American program at the nonpartisan think tank Stimson Center.

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Global weather patterns are shifting as this El Niño — predicted to be a record-breaking one — makes the dry season in some places wetter, and wet season drier. One of those locations is the Panama Canal, a critical chokepoint that moves about 5% of the world’s shipping. The narrow, 50-mile artificial waterway cuts through the Central American country, connecting the Atlantic and Pacific oceans and saving time and fuel along the shorter transit route.

The United States is the canal’s biggest user — about 70% of all the goods moving through it are coming to or going from the US.

The Panama Canal moves ships across the isthmus through a system of locks — water-filled chambers that can raise or lower a vessel like a flight of stairs. The locks are fed by freshwater from Lake Gatun, but during the extreme droughts Panama saw during El Niños in 2023 and 2024, the lake’s levels dropped to historic lows, reducing the number of ships that could pass through the canal from 36 per day to 24.

Panama’s wet season began in May and will run until December. In June, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration declared the official start of a new El Niño, which is expected to be historically strong and peak somewhere between October and December. For Panama, the result is a wet season that’s already been drier than usual and is likely to get worse.

Justin Sullivan/Getty Images

Panama City has seen 75% of its average rainfall since May 1. Other places are even drier. The western city of David has seen just 60% of its average rainfall over the past 90 days. The cumulative rainfall across the canal watershed since May has been 34% below the historical average, the Panama Canal Authority said on Thursday. The canal is already being forced to adapt its operations to these decreased water levels.

One way is by adjusting the draft for vessels going through the locks. The draft is the vertical distance from the surface of the water to the lowest point of a ship’s hull. It indicates how deep the boat sits in the water, and the Panama Canal Authority announced a 48-foot draft limit — down from the usual 50 feet — that goes into effect in September. A further downward revision is expected soon after. A lower draft means ships must reduce the weight of their cargo. Less cargo capacity per ship means higher prices for consumers.

Some shipping companies are already feeling the trickle-down effects. Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) announced on August 12 that draft restrictions reducing vessel capacity have led it to increase its Panama Canal surcharge. This fee for container ships offsets the costs associated with transiting the waterway. MSC’s increase goes into effect September 12 “until further notice” and will apply to shipments from Southeast Asia, China, Korea and Japan bound for the US’s East Coast and Gulf Coast, the shipping company said.

Authorities have also begun to reduce the daily number of ships that can transit the canal. Beginning September 4, 34 ships will be allowed through per day, falling to 32 ships by September 15.

The reduction will likely worsen existing delays and exacerbate transit fees, experts say. While the reductions aren’t as disruptive as those in previous El Nino years, “the potential is still there to get worse,” Henry Ziemer, Americas Program fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said.

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It’s not just draft limits and reduced capacity driving up shipping costs — it’s also the canal’s auction slots, which have become increasingly expensive.

The Panama Canal operates on a reservation system. Ships book slots to transit, similar to how passengers book seats on airplanes in advance. For ships that did not book a slot in advance, the Canal Authority typically offers three-to-five daily slots for auction.

Increased demand for canal transits amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz has already taken the average auction prices from about $100,000 to about $380,000 — with one auction slot even going for $4 million, Panama Canal Deputy Administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta said in May.

Experts agree that these increased prices would ultimately fall on the consumer, as they did during supply chain disruptions from previous El Niños.

While some ships may wait to transit to avoid the higher fees, those carrying more time-sensitive cargo are likely to take the plunge and pay the steep transit prices, driving up the price of those goods. For example, active pharmaceutical ingredients used to make medicines like Tylenol and some prescription drugs come, in large part, from China and are believed to transit through the Panama Canal to the US East Coast, said Prashant Yadav, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations who tracks healthcare supply chains.

Shipping companies carrying merchandise from online retailers and e-commerce platforms that may penalize later deliveries or vessels carrying season-dependent fashion merchandise might also take on higher transit costs to get their shipments delivered on time.

The cost increase won’t just affect goods that go through the canal. There’s a ripple effect on ground transport, too.

If there are significant holdups at the canal, vessels will bring their cargo to a US West Coast port and truck it across the country, Yadav said. That, in turn, makes less ground transport available, increasing the cost of shipping overland and raising the price on a wide range of goods that never even transited the canal.

Armenak Shahbazian, president and co-founder of logistics company Polo 4PL says his team is already feeling the effects of El Niño on the canal, with increased demand on land transport, rerouting and higher prices, which are passed down to their customers. His team has seen many cancellations by importers who were shipping to the US East Coast or Texas via the canal, and who are now considering rerouting to Californian ports in Los Angeles and Long Beach. Worried the drought will affect their shipments, they aren’t necessarily looking at the cheapest option anymore, but at the one that will get their products where they need to go in time, he said.

“We’re having issues here with a lot of domestic shipments where railway is overpacked,” he said, adding that trucking capacity at his company is also tight.

“So on top of this with El Niño happening, there’s some bottlenecks in the supply chain that we’re monitoring right now and we’re trying our best to see how we can predict things,” he said.

Oil prices are already ticking up as Iran maintains a hardline stance over its control of the Strait of Hormuz.

Most energy imports to the US don’t involve the Panama Canal, but it’s a different story for US energy exports. US petroleum products heading to Asia could face trouble, which could become problematic for Asian countries attempting to replace their missing Middle Eastern oil with American crude. Those countries could see surging energy prices on both fronts.

“(It’s) another serious headache in global supply chains at a time when economies are already trying to adapt to increased cost related to the Strait of Hormuz crisis,” Gedan from the Stimson Center said. “Not only does the cost of shipping filter down to consumer prices, but if it’s making energy less accessible, that makes everything more expensive.”

The US has been comparatively insulated from chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz, Ziemer from CSIS said. Not a lot of US exports or imports pass through Hormuz — whereas about 40% of all US-bound container traffic transits the Panama Canal.

In recent months, the canal has become increasingly crucial for the US.

On August 10, President Donald Trump extended a waiver for 90 days, allowing foreign ships to transport commodities like energy products between US ports, to help counter rising gas prices caused by the Iran war. A tracker set up by the Cato Institute shows at least 49 of the 215 voyages by foreign-flagged vessels under the waiver have used the Panama Canal to make the journey, as of August 11.

If Panama Canal transits fall to the levels they did during the droughts in 2023 and 2024, a much higher economic disruption could be on the horizon, for the US in particular, Ziemer said, noting though that the disruption might be less of a pricing issue for energy and more for consumer goods like cell phones, computers and produce.

Frederic J. Brown/AFP/Getty Images

As the impending effects of El Niño loom large over Panama, the Canal Authority is working to make operations more sustainable amid climate challenges, especially since the canal’s freshwater source also serves 2 million people in nearby communities — nearly half Panama’s population.

The Rio Indio reservoir project is a plan to create a new lake to feed the canal, increase water storage capacity, mitigate lower water levels and serve as a safety measure against future droughts. But it is still in very early stages and has not yet begun construction.

The Panama Canal Authority is also pursuing the construction of a liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) pipeline to transport fuel, reducing the need for large LPG-carrying vessels transiting the waterway.

But while consumers brace for the full force of El Niño, increased demand might be just what the canal, itself, needs.

High traffic brings in money for the canal and Panama, Gedan said. “Which is nice and maybe gives it a bit of a financial buffer before this really tough time that it’s expecting in the next few months.”

8月初，数十艘船只在巴拿马运河等待通行。有些船只已被困超过一周。一艘化学品油轮更是滞留了一个多月。8月10日，一艘大型集装箱船支付了高达400万美元的加急费，使其得以快速通行——而其他不愿或无力支付如此巨额费用的船只则陷入了海上困境。

物流公司 Flexport 在那艘幸运的船上装载了 30 个集装箱，该公司表示，巴拿马运河太平洋一端的积压情况是自 5 月份以来最严重的，当时由于霍尔木兹海峡的冲突，等待时间有所增加。

但现在，这种商业压力正因异常强烈的气候事件——厄尔尼诺现象而加剧。消费者预计将首当其冲受到影响。

厄尔尼诺现象导致运输成本上升。CNN资深新闻记者希拉·胡马云解释了这将如何影响美国消费者。

“这种连锁反应会通过供应链一直波及到商店里的消费者价格，”无党派智库史汀生中心高级研究员兼拉丁美洲项目主任本杰明·格丹表示。

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全球气候模式正在发生变化，预计此次厄尔尼诺现象将打破纪录，导致一些地区的旱季更加潮湿，而雨季则更加干燥。巴拿马运河便是其中之一，这条重要的交通要道承担着全球约5%的航运量。这条狭窄的人工水道全长50英里，贯穿中美洲国家巴拿马，连接着大西洋和太平洋，缩短了运输路线，从而节省了时间和燃料。

美国是运河最大的用户——通过运河运输的所有货物中约有 70% 是进出美国的。

巴拿马运河通过一系列船闸——注满水的闸室，可以像楼梯一样升降船只——来控制船只穿越地峡。船闸的水源来自加通湖的淡水，但在2023年和2024年巴拿马遭遇厄尔尼诺现象导致的极端干旱期间，加通湖水位降至历史最低点，使得每天可通过运河的船只数量从36艘减少到24艘。

巴拿马的雨季从五月开始，将持续到十二月。六月，美国国家海洋和大气管理局宣布新一轮厄尔尼诺现象正式开始，预计此次厄尔尼诺现象强度将创历史新高，并在十月至十二月之间达到峰值。对巴拿马而言，这意味着本已比往年更加干燥的雨季，而且情况可能还会恶化。

贾斯汀·沙利文/盖蒂图片社

自5月1日以来，巴拿马城的降雨量仅为平均水平的75%。其他地区的情况则更为干燥。西部城市戴维在过去90天的降雨量仅为平均水平的60%。巴拿马运河管理局周四表示，自5月以来，运河流域的累计降雨量比历史平均水平低34%。运河已被迫调整运营以适应水位下降的情况。

一种方法是调整船舶通过船闸的吃水深度。吃水深度是指从水面到船体最低点的垂直距离，它表示船舶在水中的深度。巴拿马运河管理局宣布，将于9月生效的吃水深度限制为48英尺（通常为50英尺），预计不久后还将进一步下调。吃水深度降低意味着船舶必须减少货物重量。每艘船的载货量减少意味着消费者需要支付更高的价格。

一些航运公司已经开始感受到连锁反应的影响。地中海航运公司（MSC）于8月12日宣布，由于航道限行导致船舶运力下降，该公司将提高巴拿马运河附加费。这项针对集装箱船的费用旨在抵消其通过该航道的相关成本。MSC表示，此次费用上调将于9月12日生效，“直至另行通知”，并将适用于从东南亚、中国、韩国和日本开往美国东海岸和墨西哥湾沿岸的货物。

当局也已开始减少每日通过运河的船舶数量。自9月4日起，每日仅允许34艘船舶通过，到9月15日将进一步减少至32艘。

专家表示，此次减班可能会加剧现有的延误，并推高交通费用。战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）美洲项目研究员亨利·齐默尔表示，虽然此次减班的影响不如以往厄尔尼诺年份那么严重，但“情况仍有可能进一步恶化”。

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推高航运成本的不仅仅是吃水限制和运力减少，还有运河的拍卖船位，这些船位的价格也变得越来越贵。

巴拿马运河采用预约制。船舶需要提前预约通行时段，类似于乘客提前预订飞机座位。对于未提前预约的船舶，运河管理局通常每天会提供三到五个时段进行拍卖。

巴拿马运河副行政长官伊利亚·埃斯皮诺·德·马罗塔在 5 月份表示，由于霍尔木兹海峡局势紧张，运河通行需求增加，平均拍卖价格已从约 10 万美元涨至约 38 万美元，其中一个拍卖名额甚至达到了 400 万美元。

专家一致认为，这些价格上涨最终会转嫁到消费者身上，就像之前厄尔尼诺现象导致供应链中断时一样。

虽然有些船只可能会选择等待以避开高昂的过境费，但那些运载时效性更强货物的船只则很可能冒险支付高昂的过境费，从而推高这些货物的价格。例如，据追踪医疗保健供应链的外交关系委员会高级研究员普拉尚特·亚达夫（Prashant Yadav）称，用于制造泰诺等药物和一些处方药的活性药物成分，很大程度上来自中国，据信是通过巴拿马运河运往美国东海岸的。

运输在线零售商和电子商务平台商品的货运公司，如果延迟交货可能会受到处罚，或者运输季节性时尚商品的船只，也可能需要承担更高的运输成本，以确保货物按时送达。

成本上涨不仅会影响经由运河运输的货物，还会对陆路运输产生连锁反应。

亚达夫表示，如果运河出现严重延误，船舶会将货物运至美国西海岸港口，然后用卡车运往全国各地。这反过来又会减少陆路运输能力，增加陆路运输成本，并推高许多从未经过运河的货物的价格。

物流公司Polo 4PL的总裁兼联合创始人阿梅纳克·沙赫巴兹安表示，他的团队已经感受到厄尔尼诺现象对运河的影响，陆路运输需求增加，货物改道，价格上涨，而这些成本最终都转嫁给了客户。他的团队发现，许多原本通过运河向美国东海岸或德克萨斯州发货的进口商取消了订单，现在正在考虑改道至加利福尼亚州的洛杉矶和长滩港口。沙赫巴兹安说，由于担心干旱会影响货运，他们现在不再仅仅考虑最便宜的方案，而是选择能够确保产品按时送达目的地的方案。

他说：“我们这里很多国内货运都遇到了问题，铁路运输超负荷运转。”他还补充说，他所在公司的卡车运输能力也很紧张。

他说：“除了厄尔尼诺现象的影响之外，供应链中还出现了一些瓶颈，我们目前正在密切关注，并尽力尝试预测情况。”

由于伊朗在控制霍尔木兹海峡问题上坚持强硬立场，石油价格已经开始上涨。

美国的大部分能源进口并不涉及巴拿马运河，但美国能源出口的情况则截然不同。运往亚洲的美国石油产品可能会遇到麻烦，这可能会给试图用美国原油替代其在中东地区石油供应短缺的亚洲国家带来问题。这些国家可能会面临能源价格在两方面都大幅上涨的局面。

“（这）是全球供应链面临的又一个严重难题，而此时各国经济体已经在努力适应霍尔木兹海峡危机带来的成本上升，”史汀生中心的格丹表示。“运输成本不仅会转嫁到消费者身上，而且如果导致能源获取更加困难，那么所有东西都会变得更贵。”

战略与国际研究中心（CSIS）的齐默尔表示，美国相对而言较少受到霍尔木兹海峡等咽喉要道的影响。美国进出口货物很少经过霍尔木兹海峡，而大约40%的美国集装箱运输都要经过巴拿马运河。

近几个月来，运河对美国的重要性日益凸显。

8月10日，唐纳德·特朗普总统将一项豁免期限延长了90天，允许外国船只在美国港口之间运输能源产品等大宗商品，以帮助应对伊朗战争导致的天然气价格上涨。卡托研究所设立的追踪数据显示，截至8月11日，在豁免期限内，至少有49艘悬挂外国国旗的船只使用了巴拿马运河，而目前已有215艘船只通过该运河完成航程。

齐默尔表示，如果巴拿马运河的通行量下降到 2023 年和 2024 年干旱期间的水平，可能会出现更大的经济混乱，尤其是对美国而言。但他同时指出，这种混乱可能更多地体现在手机、电脑和农产品等消费品的价格上，而不是能源价格上。

Frederic J. Brown/法新社/盖蒂图片社

随着厄尔尼诺现象对巴拿马的影响日益加剧，运河管理局正努力在气候挑战下使运河运营更具可持续性，尤其因为运河的淡水来源也为附近社区的 200 万人提供服务——几乎占巴拿马人口的一半。

里约印第奥水库项目旨在建造一座新湖，为运河供水，增加蓄水能力，缓解水位下降问题，并作为应对未来干旱的安全措施。但该项目仍处于早期阶段，尚未开工建设。

巴拿马运河管理局也在推进液化石油气 (LPG) 管道的建设，以运输燃料，从而减少大型 LPG 运输船通过该水道的需求。

但当消费者准备迎接厄尔尼诺现象的全面影响时，需求的增加可能正是运河本身所需要的。

格丹表示，繁忙的交通能为运河和巴拿马带来收入。“这很好，或许能为运河在未来几个月即将面临的艰难时期提供一些财政缓冲。”