The bond market is having a wild month. Oil is making things even worse

Daniel Heuer/Reuters

Bonds had a wild week, with yields around the globe spiking to their highest levels in decades. Bond market volatility increased at its fastest pace in over a year. That’s making investors concerned that the turbulence could spill into the stock market.

The bond market’s “fear gauge,” which tracks expected volatility, has surged 30% this week. That’s the biggest one-week surge since April 2025, when President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs roiled global markets .

Investors can adapt to a steady rise in yields, but rapid spikes are harder to absorb. As bond market volatility picks up, it raises concerns about the ripple effects – including the impact to stocks.

Bond yields had been steadily climbing this year before soaring higher on Wednesday after strong economic data, hawkish comments from a key Federal Reserve official and a weak bond auction. Yields extended gains Thursday.

The 30-year Treasury yield rose as high as 5.53% on Friday, its highest level since 2004. Japan’s 10-year yield soared to its highest level since 1996. Bond yields rise when prices fall.

Add in volatile global oil prices trading over $100 per barrel, and it can stir up more uncertainty for investors. “Oil – to use a bad analogy – is throwing gasoline on the inflationary environment, and that’s what has investors worried,” Gennadiy Goldberg, head of US rates strategy at TD Securities, told CNN. “That’s what has the Fed worried as well.”

The 10-year Treasury yield this week hit its highest level since 2007. The key yield sets borrowing costs across the economy. As the yield rises, it pushes up the cost of a mortgage, auto loan and other consumer loans. On Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate topped 7%, its highest level in almost two years.

Oil prices remain a key driver for bonds and stocks.

Seven months into the war with Iran, the global oil price is above $100 per barrel — a more than 60% increase since the start of the year — and continues to have major ripple effects through the economy and markets.

Brent crude was volatile this week but is up 15% just this month, pushing up traders’ expectations for central banks to raise interest rates further to tamp down inflation – and pushing up bond yields.

The correlation between oil prices and the 10-year Treasury yield surged this week to its highest level in 35 years, according to data from Cboe Global Markets.

“The longer higher oil prices persist, the more likely inflation spreads to other portions of the economy,” said Mike O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading. “That is prompting the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which is pressuring bonds.”

A drop in oil prices could ease pressure on bonds, and traders are monitoring developments in the Middle East to gauge whether disruptions to oil flows will persist. A prolonged surge in oil prices so severe it prompts fears of an economic slowdown could also send investors rushing back into the safety of bonds. For now, economic data is strong, oil is elevated and yields are on the rise.

“Oil has … been in the driver’s seat for both stocks and bonds,” Ohsung Kwon, chief equity strategist at Wells Fargo, wrote in a note earlier this week.

Investors are on watch for how the bond market tumult is impacting stocks.

The S&P 500 is down less than 1% since hitting a record high five weeks ago. But there’s pain in the market underneath the surface.

Out of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, only technology and energy have gained this month. The other nine sectors are in the red, led by a more than 7% decline for the utilities sector, which is sensitive to higher interest rates.

The S&P 500 is weighted by market value, so larger companies in the tech sector have a greater influence on the index. The S&P 500 equal-weight index, which gives each stock the same weight, is down more than 5% since its record high in August.

The rise in oil prices and rates is creating headwinds for sectors of the stock market like utilities and consumer discretionary. “It’s been driving parts of the market, most notably the consumer-facing market,” Jonathan Krinsky, chief market technician at BTIG, told CNN.

More stocks in the S&P 500 touched a 52-week low in the past seven trading sessions than stocks hitting 52-week highs, Krinsky said. Oil and rates are being felt in the stock market, just “not quite on the surface of the S&P 500.”

“The AI story has been kind of holding up the S&P,” Krinsky said.

The S&P 500 is up more than 12% this year and has added just over $8 trillion in market value. The tech and communication services sectors have accounted for roughly $6.3 trillion of that market value gain, according to O’Rourke at JonesTrading.

“The ‘Yes, No, Maybe So’ jawboning over the Strait of Hormuz reopening keeps investors on edge,” Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, wrote in a note, adding that rising bond yields hurt stock valuations and put pressure on small and mid-cap stocks, real estate, utilities and “other rate-sensitive groups.”

The longer that uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz continues and bond yields keep climbing, the more pressure there could be on the stock market.

丹尼尔·休尔/路透社

债券市场本周波动剧烈，全球收益率飙升至数十年来的最高水平。债券市场波动性也以一年多来最快的速度加剧。这令投资者担忧，动荡的局面可能会蔓延至股市。

衡量债券市场预期波动率的“恐慌指数”本周飙升了30%。这是自2025年4月以来最大的单周涨幅，当时美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的“解放日”关税政策扰乱了全球市场。

投资者可以适应收益率的稳步上升，但收益率的快速飙升则难以承受。随着债券市场波动加剧，人们开始担忧其连锁反应，包括对股市的影响。

今年以来，债券收益率一直在稳步攀升，周三受强劲的经济数据、美联储一位重要官员的鹰派言论以及疲软的债券拍卖结果的提振，收益率大幅走高。周四，收益率继续上涨。

周五，30年期美国国债收益率一度升至5.53%，创下2004年以来的最高水平。日本10年期国债收益率也飙升至1996年以来的最高水平。债券价格下跌时，债券收益率就会上升。

再加上波动剧烈的全球油价，交易价格一度超过每桶100美元，这会加剧投资者的不确定性。道明证券美国利率策略主管根纳季·戈德堡告诉CNN：“石油——打个不太恰当的比方——就像是在给通胀环境火上浇油，这正是投资者担忧的原因。美联储也同样对此感到担忧。”

本周10年期美国国债收益率触及2007年以来的最高水平。这一关键收益率决定着整个经济体的借贷成本。收益率上升会推高抵押贷款、汽车贷款和其他消费贷款的成本。周四，30年期固定抵押贷款的平均利率突破7%，达到近两年来的最高水平。

石油价格仍然是影响债券和股票价格的关键因素。

与伊朗的战争已经持续了七个月，全球石油价格已超过每桶 100 美元——比年初上涨了 60% 以上——并继续对经济和市场产生重大连锁反应。

本周布伦特原油价格波动较大，但本月已上涨 15%，这推高了交易员对各国央行进一步提高利率以抑制通胀的预期，并推高了债券收益率。

根据芝加哥期权交易所全球市场的数据显示，本周油价与 10 年期美国国债收益率之间的相关性飙升至 35 年来的最高水平。

JonesTrading首席市场策略师迈克·奥罗克表示：“油价高企持续时间越长，通胀就越有可能蔓延到经济的其他领域。这将促使美联储提高利率，从而给债券市场带来压力。”

油价下跌或可缓解债券市场压力，交易员正密切关注中东局势发展，以评估石油供应中断是否会持续。如果油价持续飙升，引发经济放缓的担忧，投资者也可能纷纷涌入避险债券市场。目前，经济数据强劲，油价高企，收益率正在上升。

富国银行首席股票策略师权五成（Ohsung Kwon）在本周早些时候的一份报告中写道：“石油一直……对股票和债券市场起着主导作用。”

投资者密切关注债券市场动荡对股市的影响。

标普500指数自五周前创下历史新高以来，跌幅不到1%。但市场表面之下却隐藏着痛苦。

标普500指数的11个板块中，本月仅有科技和能源板块上涨。其余9个板块均下跌，其中公用事业板块跌幅最大，超过7%，该板块对利率上升较为敏感。

标普500指数按市值加权，因此科技板块的大型公司对该指数的影响更大。而标普500等权重指数（每只股票权重相同）自8月份创下历史新高以来已下跌超过5%。

油价和油价上涨给公用事业和非必需消费品等股市板块带来了不利影响。“这已经对部分市场造成了冲击，尤其是面向消费者的市场，”BTIG首席市场技术分析师乔纳森·克林斯基告诉CNN。

克林斯基表示，过去七个交易日里，标普500指数中触及52周低点的股票数量多于触及52周高点的股票数量。油价和利率的波动正在影响股市，只是“尚未在标普500指数中得到充分体现”。

克林斯基表示：“人工智能的故事在某种程度上支撑了标普500指数。”

标普500指数今年上涨超过12%，市值增加了8万亿美元以上。据JonesTrading的奥罗克（O'Rourke）称，科技和通信服务板块贡献了其中约6.3万亿美元的市值增长。

Piper Sandler 的首席市场技术分析师 Craig Johnson 在一份报告中写道：“关于霍尔木兹海峡重新开放的‘是，否，也许吧’的争论让投资者感到紧张不安。”他还补充说，债券收益率上升损害了股票估值，并给中小市值股票、房地产、公用事业和“其他对利率敏感的群体”带来了压力。

霍尔木兹海峡局势的不确定性持续越久，债券收益率持续攀升，股市面临的压力就越大。