The GOP wants to talk about crime, immigration and trans issues. Voters don’t

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images/File

Republican former Florida congressman Matt Gaetz summed up a large portion of the GOP’s midterm message this week when he responded to a man who said he was voting Democratic for the first time ever.

“I hate the war too,” Gaetz told the man on X . “But the Democrats want to trans your kids.”

The trans issue seemed to be a potent one in the 2024 election — President Donald Trump’s team cut an effective ad that professed Democratic nominee Kamala Harris was “for they/them. President Trump is for you.” But a new CNN poll this week suggests that playbook won’t be as effective this time.

And that seems to be the case for several other red-meat GOP issues, as well. Republicans have well-established topics that voters favor them on — and that they’ve sought to focus on. But, right now, polls show those aren’t voters’ top priorities.

Perhaps more than in any other recent midterm, other issues are simply being swamped by the economy.

And that’s an issue that Trump’s actions have handed to Democrats on a silver platter.

The GOP focused on transgender policies extensively in the 2024 presidential election. And it’s been a fixture in its 2026 ad campaign, too.

But the new CNN poll shows registered voters only prefer the GOP by a small margin on that issue, 37%-32%.

And perhaps most strikingly, just 25% called the issue “extremely important” to their vote. That was the lowest of 11 issues tested, behind abortion, tariffs and crime — and far behind healthcare and voting issues.

Similarly, CNN polling in July showed just 35% of independents said Democrats were too focused on transgender issues, compared to 31% who said the same of Republicans.

Democrats have deemphasized their support for transgender rights since 2024 and tacked closer to the middle on issues like kids’ sports. And some of them are even running ads on their positions .

It’s certainly true that focusing on transgender policies could drive GOP turnout, which Republicans could use thanks to their unenthusiastic base . But even there, just 34% of Republicans say the issue is extremely important to their vote — barely more than the 29% of Democrats who say the same.

Immigration is another mainstay of Republican campaign efforts. And it would seem to be a strong message for the GOP, given Trump has slowed illegal border-crossings to record lows .

It’s also something 50% of voters say is extremely important to their vote. That’s a high number; it’s an increase over those who said the same in the 2022, 2018 and 2006 midterm elections.

But there’s a catch: The reason that number has risen is because Democrats now care about it a lot, too — apparently thanks to Trump’s unpopular deportation policies.

In 2022 , Republicans were 35 points more likely than Democrats to label immigration as an extremely important issue, 65%-30%. Today, the gap is down to 10 points — 60%-50%.

Republicans still seem to have a small edge on immigration, with voters picking them over the Democratic Party 41%-36% in the CNN poll. But other polls show Democrats are ahead.

And, paradoxically, the slowdown on the border would seem to make the issue a lot less urgent for voters.

Republicans lead on this issue by more than any other, 40%-29%.

But just 41% of registered voters say the issue is extremely important to their vote.

And again, the major reductions we’ve seen in recent years — which Trump frequently touts but began during the Biden administration — have seemingly made the issue less salient for voters.

Another major focal point for the GOP in recent weeks has been invoking far-left streamer Hasan Piker. And that’s not just been in their campaign against Michigan Democratic Senate nominee Abdul El-Sayed, who campaigned with Piker during his primary, but other Democrats as well.

But a new poll suggests it’s not really penetrating with those who don’t follow politics closely.

The New York Times-Siena College poll in Michigan showed Piker was quite unpopular among likely voters who know him. But 6 in 10 offered no opinion about him, and 54% said they hadn’t even heard of him.

Only 13% of independents had an opinion of Piker.

And there is one incontrovertibly big issue: the economy. It might be a more dominant point than it’s been in a long time.

The CNN poll shows 68% of registered voters say the economy is extremely important to their vote. That’s virtually tied with the previous high watermark for that issue, which clocked in between 59% and 69% in the 2022 midterm elections.

Besides that, the economy only cracked 50% in one other midterm in the 21st Century: 2010 (56%).

To reiterate: it’s usually under 50%; today it’s 68%.

Thanks to Trump’s 73% disapproval rating on the economy and his 80% disapproval rating on inflation, Democrats have taken a seven-point lead on this issue — which historically favors Republicans .

The GOP seems to be dedicating significant efforts to make the election about other things, echoing a president who has been remarkably dismissive of concerns about affordability and gas prices.

But right now, there’s very little evidence it’s working — or even could work.

Tasos Katopodis/Getty Images/文件

本周，共和党前佛罗里达州国会议员马特·盖茨在回应一位表示自己有生以来第一次投票给民主党的男子时，总结了共和党在中期选举中的大部分信息。

“我也很痛恨这场战争，”盖茨对X上的那个人说。“但民主党人想让你的孩子变性。”

跨性别议题在2024年大选中似乎发挥了重要作用——唐纳德·特朗普总统的团队制作了一则颇具影响力的广告，宣称民主党候选人卡马拉·哈里斯“代表他们/她们，而特朗普总统代表你们”。但本周CNN的一项最新民调显示，这套策略这次可能不会奏效。

共和党其他一些备受选民青睐的议题似乎也存在同样的情况。共和党有一些选民支持的传统议题，他们也一直致力于在这些议题上集中精力。但是，目前的民调显示，这些并非选民最关心的问题。

或许比最近任何一次中期选举都更甚，其他议题都被经济问题所掩盖。

而特朗普的所作所为，却把这个问题拱手让给了民主党人。

共和党在2024年总统大选中重点关注跨性别政策。而且，这在2026年的竞选广告中也占据了重要地位。

但 CNN 最新民调显示，登记选民在这个问题上仅以微弱优势（37% 对 32%）倾向于共和党。

或许最引人注目的是，只有25%的人认为这个问题对他们的投票“极其重要”。在测试的11个议题中，这一比例最低，甚至低于堕胎、关税和犯罪——远远低于医疗保健和投票权议题。

同样，CNN 7 月份的民调显示，只有 35% 的独立选民认为民主党人过于关注跨性别问题，而持同样观点的共和党人比例为 31%。

自2024年以来，民主党人淡化了对跨性别者权利的支持，并在儿童体育等问题上采取了更为中间的立场。他们中的一些人甚至开始投放广告来宣传自己的立场。

诚然，关注跨性别政策可能会提高共和党的投票率，而共和党正需要这样的支持率，因为他们的基本盘对跨性别议题并不热衷。但即便如此，也只有34%的共和党人表示该议题对他们的投票极其重要——仅比持相同观点的民主党人（29%）略高一些。

移民问题是共和党竞选活动的另一大重点。鉴于特朗普已将非法越境人数降至历史新低，这似乎对共和党来说是一个强有力的信息。

还有50%的选民表示，这对他们的投票极其重要。这个数字很高；比2022年、2018年和2006年中期选举中持相同观点的选民比例有所增加。

但这里有个问题：这个数字上升的原因是民主党人现在也很关心这个问题——这显然要归功于特朗普不受欢迎的驱逐出境政策。

2022年，共和党人比民主党人更有可能将移民问题视为极其重要的问题，比例为65%比30%，比高出35个百分点。如今，这一差距已缩小至10个百分点，比例为60%比50%。

在移民问题上，共和党似乎仍略占优势，CNN民调显示，选民以41%比36%的比例支持共和党而非民主党。但其他民调显示，民主党领先。

然而，矛盾的是，边境局势的放缓似乎会让选民对这个问题不再那么迫切。

共和党人在这一问题上的领先优势最大，为 40% 对 29%。

但只有 41% 的登记选民表示，这个问题对他们的投票极其重要。

再者，近年来我们看到的大幅减税——特朗普经常吹嘘，但实际上是从拜登政府时期开始的——似乎让这个问题对选民来说不再那么重要了。

近几周来，共和党的另一个主要关注点是利用极左翼主播哈桑·皮克尔。他们不仅在对抗密歇根州民主党参议员候选人阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德（后者在初选期间曾与皮克尔一起竞选）的竞选活动中这样做，而且在对抗其他民主党人时也这样做。

但一项新的民意调查显示，这种观点并没有真正渗透到那些不密切关注政治的人群中。

《纽约时报》和锡耶纳学院在密歇根州进行的民意调查显示，在认识皮克的选民中，他的支持率相当低。但十分之六的受访者表示对皮克没有发表意见，54%的受访者表示甚至从未听说过他。

只有 13% 的独立人士对 Piker 有看法。

还有一个无可争议的大问题：经济。它的重要性或许比以往任何时候都更加突出。

CNN的民调显示，68%的登记选民表示经济问题对他们的投票至关重要。这一比例几乎与此前该议题的最高纪录持平，2022年中期选举时，这一比例在59%至69%之间。

除此之外，21 世纪以来，经济只在另一次中期选举中突破了 50%：2010 年（56%）。

再次强调：通常低于 50%；今天达到了 68%。

由于特朗普在经济问题上的不赞成率高达 73%，在通货膨胀问题上的不赞成率高达 80%，民主党人在这一问题上领先 7 个百分点——而这一问题历来对共和党有利。

共和党似乎正在投入大量精力，试图将选举的焦点转移到其他方面，这与总统对民众对生活成本和汽油价格的担忧漠不关心的态度如出一辙。

但目前几乎没有证据表明它有效——甚至可能有效。