What weapons could North Korea give to Russia?

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea is apparently moving to sell millions of rockets and artillery shells — many of them likely from its old stock — to its Cold War ally Russia.

Russia has called a U.S. intelligence report on the purchasing plan “fake.” But U.S. officials say it shows Russia’s desperation with the war in Ukraine and that Moscow could buy additional military hardware from North Korea.

The ammunitions North Korea reportedly intends to sell to Moscow are likely copies of Soviet-era weapons that can fit Russian launchers. But there are still questions over the quality of the supplies and how much they could actually help the Russian military.

What will North Korea supply?

Slapped by international sanctions and export controls, Russia in August bought Iranian-made drones that U.S. officials said had technical problems. For Russia, North Korea is likely another good option for its ammunitions supply, because the North keeps a significant stockpile of shells, many of them copies of Soviet-era ones.

North Korea “may represent the single biggest source of compatible legacy artillery ammunition outside of Russia, including domestic production facilities to further supplies,” said Joseph Dempsey, research associate for defense and military analysis at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

Lee Illwoo, an expert with the Korea Defense Network in South Korea, said both North and South Korea — split along the world’s most heavily fortified border for more than 70 years — keep tens of millions of artillery shells each. North Korea will likely sell older shells that it wants to replace with newer ones for multiple rocket launch systems or sophisticated missiles in its front-line Army bases, he said.

North Korea’s greater reliance on nuclear weapons and guided missiles may also remove the need for many of its older, unguided artillery shells that once played a prominent role, said Ankit Panda, an expert with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Replicas of the North Korean Scud-B missile (center, background) and South Korean Hawk surface-to-air missiles (front) are seen at the Korean War Memorial in Seoul in 2018. (Jung Yeon-je/AFP via Getty Images)

But Bruce Bennett, a senior security expert at the California-based thin tank Rand, said most of the artillery rounds to be sent to Russia are likely to be ammunition for small arms, such as AK-47 rifles or machine guns.

“It’s not millions of artillery shells and rockets — that’s more than the likely consumption. It could be millions of small arms rounds,” Bennett said.

According to an IISS assessment, North Korea has an estimated 20,000 artillery pieces including multiple rocket launchers in service — a number that Dempsey described as “significantly more than any other country in the world.”

North Korea’s state media have called its artillery guns “the first arm of the People’s Army and the most powerful arm in the world” that can reduce an enemy’s position into “a sea of flames.”

But its old artillery systems, whose ammunitions will likely be supplied to Russia, have a reputation for poor accuracy.

During North Korea’s artillery bombardment of South Korea’s front-line Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 that killed four people, Bennett said that only 80 of the 300-400 weapons North Korea should have fired likely hit their target. In his assessment, Lee said about half of the North Korean shells launched ended up falling into waters before reaching the island.

“That is miserable artillery performance. The Russians may experience the same thing, which will not make them very happy,” Bennett said.

Observers doubt the usefulness of North Korean ammunition for the Russian campaign in Ukraine, which they say has depleted the military. There have been photos of barrel-busted Russian guns on social media.

In July, a senior U.S. defense official told reporters that Russia was launching tens of thousands of artillery rounds each day and couldn’t keep it up forever.

“While substantial stockpiles likely still exist, they may be increasingly infringing on those reserved for the contingency of a wider future conflict,” Dempsey said.

What about missiles?

It’s unlikely for North Korea to provide Russia with ballistic missiles that Pyongyang views as crucial in its military strategies toward Washington and Seoul, said Yang Uk, an analyst at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies.

And if North Korea decides to supply missiles to Russia, it would need to send launch platforms as well because Russia doesn’t have launchers for the North’s Scuds and other missiles. North Korea has developed a highly maneuverable, nuclear-capable ballistic missile that was likely modeled on Russia’s Iskander. But the two missiles are of different sizes, according to Shin Jongwoo, a military expert at the Seoul-based Korea Defense and Security Forum.

There would be a number of items that North Korea could provide to Russia, given that the two countries share weapons systems going back to Soviet times. But the type of ammunitions North Korea would provide to Russia “are likely to be old and somewhere close to expiring,” said Moon Seong Mook, an analyst at South Korea’s Korea Research Institute for National Strategy.

What does North Korea get in return?

In return for weapons, North Korea will likely want food, fuel and other materials from Russia because the North finds it difficult to buy such goods from abroad under U.N. sanctions imposed over its nuclear program.

Panda said North Korea is likely benefiting in the form of cash transfers from Russia, or perhaps greater Russian leniency in not enforcing other sanctions on Pyongyang, including the transfer of materials necessary for the growth of North Korea’s missile programs.

According to Bennett, North Korea would be willing to be compensated with fuel. For its more advanced arms, it could seek advanced weapons technologies from Russia, possibly including those it needs for its expected nuclear test, the first of its kind in five years, he said.

韩国首尔——朝鲜显然正准备向其冷战盟友俄罗斯出售数百万枚火箭弹和炮弹——其中许多可能是其旧库存。

俄罗斯称美国一份关于采购计划的情报报告是“伪造的”。但美国官员表示，这表明俄罗斯在乌克兰战争中已走投无路，莫斯科可能从朝鲜购买更多军事装备。

据报道，朝鲜计划向莫斯科出售的弹药很可能是仿制苏联时期武器的，可以适配俄罗斯的发射器。但这些弹药的质量以及它们究竟能对俄罗斯军方起到多大帮助，仍然存在疑问。

朝鲜将提供什么？

受国际制裁和出口管制的影响，俄罗斯在8月份购买了伊朗制造的无人机，美国官员称这些无人机存在技术问题。对俄罗斯而言，朝鲜很可能是另一个不错的弹药供应来源，因为朝鲜拥有大量的炮弹储备，其中许多是苏联时期炮弹的仿制品。

国际战略研究所国防和军事分析研究员约瑟夫·邓普西表示，朝鲜“可能是除俄罗斯以外最大的兼容传统火炮弹药来源，包括国内生产设施，可以进一步供应”。

韩国防务网专家李日宇表示，朝韩两国——两国沿世界上防御最严密的边界线分裂已超过70年——各自都储备着数千万枚炮弹。他指出，朝鲜很可能会出售其前线陆军基地中用于多管火箭炮系统或先进导弹的旧炮弹，以替换其中的旧炮弹。

卡内基国际和平基金会专家安基特·潘达表示，朝鲜对核武器和制导导弹的更大依赖，也可能使其不再需要许多曾经发挥重要作用的老式非制导炮弹。

2018年，在首尔的朝鲜战争纪念馆，可以看到朝鲜“飞毛腿-B”导弹（中，背景）和韩国“鹰”地对空导弹（前）的复制品。（Jung Yeon-je/AFP via Getty Images）

但总部位于加利福尼亚州的兰德公司高级安全专家布鲁斯·贝内特表示，运往俄罗斯的大部分炮弹很可能是小型武器的弹药，例如 AK-47 步枪或机枪。

“这并非数百万枚炮弹和火箭弹——那远远超过了可能的消耗量。也可能是数百万发小型武器子弹，”贝内特说。

根据国际战略研究所的评估，朝鲜拥有约 2 万门火炮，其中包括多管火箭炮——邓普西称这一数字“远远超过世界上任何其他国家”。

朝鲜官方媒体称其火炮是“人民军的第一武器，也是世界上最强大的武器”，可以将敌人的阵地变成“一片火海”。

但其老旧的火炮系统（其弹药很可能将供应给俄罗斯）以精度差而臭名昭著。

2010年朝鲜炮击韩国前线延坪岛，造成四人死亡。贝内特表示，朝鲜本应发射的300至400枚炮弹中，可能只有80枚击中了目标。李则评估认为，朝鲜发射的炮弹中约有一半在到达延坪岛之前就落入了水中。

“这炮兵表现太糟糕了。俄罗斯人可能也会遇到同样的情况，这肯定不会让他们高兴，”贝内特说。

观察人士质疑朝鲜弹药对俄罗斯在乌克兰的军事行动是否有效，他们认为这场行动已经消耗了俄罗斯的大量兵力。社交媒体上流传着一些俄制枪支枪管断裂的照片。

7 月，一位美国高级国防官员告诉记者，俄罗斯每天发射数万发炮弹，不可能一直持续下去。

“虽然可能仍然存在大量库存，但它们可能正在日益侵占为应对未来更大规模冲突而保留的库存，”邓普西说。

导弹呢？

首尔峨山政策研究所分析师杨宇表示，朝鲜不太可能向俄罗斯提供弹道导弹，而平壤认为弹道导弹对其针对华盛顿和首尔的军事战略至关重要。

如果朝鲜决定向俄罗斯提供导弹，也需要同时提供发射平台，因为俄罗斯目前没有发射朝鲜“飞毛腿”导弹和其他导弹的发射装置。朝鲜已经研制出一种机动性极强、可携带核弹头的弹道导弹，其设计很可能是仿照俄罗斯的“伊斯坎德尔”导弹。但据首尔韩国国防安全论坛的军事专家申钟宇（Shin Jongwoo）称，这两种导弹的尺寸并不相同。

鉴于朝鲜和俄罗斯共享的武器系统可以追溯到苏联时期，朝鲜可以向俄罗斯提供多种物资。但韩国国家战略研究所分析师文成穆表示，朝鲜可能提供给俄罗斯的弹药“很可能是老旧且接近过期的”。

朝鲜能从中获得什么回报？

作为武器交换，朝鲜可能希望从俄罗斯获得食品、燃料和其他物资，因为在联合国因其核计划而实施的制裁下，朝鲜很难从国外购买此类商品。

Panda表示，朝鲜可能从俄罗斯获得现金转移，或者俄罗斯在不执行对平壤的其他制裁方面更加宽容，包括转移朝鲜导弹计划发展所需的材料。

贝内特表示，朝鲜愿意接受燃料作为补偿。至于更先进的武器，朝鲜可能会向俄罗斯寻求先进武器技术，其中可能包括其预期核试验所需的技术——这将是朝鲜五年来的首次核试验。