With US military support, Israel shifts Middle East power balance

WASHINGTON — Israeli military strikes are targeting Iran’s armed allies across a nearly 2,000-mile stretch of the Middle East and threatening Iran itself. The efforts raise the possibility of an end to two decades of Iranian ascendancy in the region, to which the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq inadvertently gave rise.

In Washington, Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, and Arab capitals, opponents and supporters of Israel's offensive are offering clashing ideas about what the U.S. should do next, as its ally racks up tactical successes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen and presses its yearlong campaign to crush Hamas in Gaza.

Israel should get all the support it needs from the United States until Iran's government “follows other dictatorships of the past into the dustbin of history,” said Richard Goldberg, a senior adviser at Washington's conservative-leaning Foundation for the Defense of Democracies — calls echoed by some Israeli political figures.

Going further, Yoel Guzansky, a former senior staffer at Israel’s National Security Council, called for the Biden administration to join Israel in direct attacks in Iran. That would send "the right message to the Iranians — ‘Don’t mess with us,’'' Guzansky said.

Critics, however, highlight lessons from the U.S. military campaign in Iraq and toppling of Saddam Hussein , when President George W. Bush ignored Arab warnings that the Iraqi dictator was the region's indispensable counterbalance to Iranian influence. They caution against racking up military victories without adequately considering the risks, end goals or plans for what comes next , and warn of unintended consequences.

Ultimately, Israel “will be in a situation where it can only protect itself by perpetual war,” said Vali Nasr, who was an adviser to the Obama administration. Now a professor at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, or SAIS, he has been one of the leading documenters of the rise of Iranian regional influence since the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

With Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu giving limited weight to Biden administration calls for restraint, the United States and its partners in the Middle East are “at the mercy of how far Bibi Netanyahu will push it,” Nasr said, referring to the Israeli leader by his nickname.

“It's as if we hadn't learned the lessons, or the folly, of that experiment ... in Iraq in 2003 about reshaping the Middle East order,” said Randa Slim, a fellow at SAIS and researcher at the Washington-based Middle East Institute.

The Navy warship Bulkeley fires a missile to help intercept Iran's ballistic missile attack against Israel on Oct. 1, 2024. (Screenshot/U.S. Navy)

Advocates of Israel’s campaign hope for the weakening of Iran and its armed proxies that attack the U.S., Israel and their partners, oppress civil society and increasingly are teaming up with Russia and other Western adversaries.

Opponents warn that military action without resolving the grievances of Palestinians and others risks endless and destabilizing cycles of war , insurgency and extremist violence, and Middle East governments growing more repressive to try to control the situation.

And there’s the threat that Iran develops nuclear weapons to try to ensure its survival. Before the Israeli strikes on Hezbollah, Iranian leaders concerned about Israel’s offensives had made clear that they were interested in returning to negotiations with the U.S. on their nuclear program and claimed interest in improved relations overall.

A Houthi supporter raises a Hezbollah flag during an anti-Israel and anti-U.S. rally in Yemen, September 2024. (Osamah Abdulrahman/AP)

In just weeks, Israeli airstrikes and intelligence operations have devastated the leadership , ranks and arsenals of Lebanon-based Hezbollah — which had been one of the Middle East’s most powerful fighting forces and Iran's overseas bulwark against attacks on Iranian territory — and hit oil infrastructure of Yemen's Iran-allied Houthis .

A year of Israeli airstrikes in Gaza appears to have reduced the leadership of Iranian-allied Hamas to a few survivors hiding in underground tunnels. However, Israeli forces again engaged in heavy fighting there this week, and Hamas was able to fire rockets at Tel Aviv in a surprising show of enduring strength on the Oct. 7 anniversary of the militant group's attack on Israel, which started the war.

Anticipated Israeli counterstrikes on Iran could accelerate regional shifts in power. The response would follow Iran launching ballistic missiles at Israel last week in retaliation for killings of Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.

It also could escalate the risk of all-out regional war that U.S. President Joe Biden — and decades of previous administrations — worked to avert.

The expansion of Israeli attacks since late last month has sidelined mediation by the U.S., Egypt and Qatar for a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza. U.S. leaders say Israel did not warn them before striking Hezbollah leaders in Lebanon but have defended the surge in attacks, while still pressing for peace .

Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic presidential nominee, said in an interview with CBS' “60 Minutes” aired Monday that the U.S. was dedicated to supplying Israel with the military aid needed to protect itself but would keep pushing to end the conflict.

“We’re not going to stop in terms of putting that pressure on Israel and in the region, including Arab leaders,” she said.

Israel’s expanded strikes raise for many what is the tempting prospect of weakening Iran’s anti-Western, anti-Israel alliance with like-minded armed groups in Lebanon, Iraq, Syria and Yemen to governments in Russia and North Korea .

Called the “Axis of Resistance," Iran's military alliances grew — regionally, then globally — after the U.S. invasion of Iraq removed Saddam, who had fought an eight-year war against Iran's ambitious clerical regime.

Smoke rises following an explosion in southern Lebanon as seen from northern Israel, on Monday, Oct. 7, 2024. (AP Photo/Leo Correa)

But the unintended effects of the U.S. intervention were even bigger, including the rise of Iran’s Axis of Resistance and new extremist groups, including the Islamic State .

“An emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor” of the 2003 Iraq war, notes a U.S. Army review of lessons learned.

“Two decades ago, who could have seen a day when Iran was supporting Russia with arms? The reason is because of its increased influence” after the U.S. overthrow of Saddam, said Ihsan Alshimary, professor of political science at Baghdad University.

Even more than in 2003, global leaders are offering little clear idea on how the shifts in power that Israel’s military is putting in motion will end — for Iran, Israel, the Middle East at large, and the United States.

Iran and its allies are being weakened, said Goldberg, at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. So is U.S. influence as it appears to be dragged along by Israel, Nasr said.

The conflict could end up hurting Israel if it bogs down in a ground war in Lebanon, for example, said Mehran Kamrava, a professor and Middle East expert at Georgetown University in Qatar.

After four decades of deep animosity between Israeli and Iranian leaders, “the cold war between them has turned into a hot war. And this is significantly changing — is bound to change — the strategic landscape in the Middle East,” he said.

“We are certainly at the precipice of change,” Kamrava said. But “the direction and nature of that change is very hard to predict at this stage.”

华盛顿——以色列的军事打击目标是伊朗在中东近2000英里范围内的武装盟友，并对伊朗自身构成威胁。这些行动增加了伊朗在该地区长达二十年的主导地位可能终结的可能性，而伊朗的这种主导地位的出现，恰恰是2003年美国入侵伊拉克无意中促成的。

在华盛顿、特拉维夫、耶路撒冷以及阿拉伯国家的首都，以色列攻势的反对者和支持者就美国下一步应该采取的行动提出了相互冲突的想法。与此同时，以色列的盟友在黎巴嫩对真主党和也门胡塞武装的进攻中不断取得战术上的成功，并继续推进其长达一年的打击加沙哈马斯的行动。

华盛顿保守派智库“保卫民主基金会”的高级顾问理查德·戈德堡表示，以色列应该从美国获得一切必要的支持，直到伊朗政府“像过去其他独裁政权一样被扫进历史的垃圾堆”——一些以色列政治人物也表达了类似的观点。

以色列国家安全委员会前高级官员约埃尔·古赞斯基更进一步，呼吁拜登政府与以色列一道直接打击伊朗。古赞斯基说，这将向伊朗发出“正确的信号——‘别惹我们’”。

然而，批评人士强调了美国在伊拉克军事行动和推翻萨达姆·侯赛因政权的教训。当时，乔治·W·布什总统无视阿拉伯国家的警告，后者认为这位伊拉克独裁者是该地区制衡伊朗影响力的不可或缺的力量。批评人士告诫人们，不应在未充分考虑风险、最终目标或后续计划的情况下盲目追求军事胜利，并警告说，这可能会带来意想不到的后果。

曾任奥巴马政府顾问的瓦利·纳斯尔表示，以色列最终“将陷入只能通过持续战争来保护自己的境地”。他现在是约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院（SAIS）的教授，自美国入侵伊拉克以来，他一直是记录伊朗地区影响力崛起的主要学者之一。

纳斯尔说，由于以色列总理内塔尼亚胡对拜登政府呼吁保持克制的言论重视程度有限，美国及其在中东的伙伴“只能任由内塔尼亚胡将局势推向何种程度”，他用内塔尼亚胡的昵称来指代这位以色列领导人。

“就好像我们没有吸取2003年伊拉克那次重塑中东秩序的实验的教训，或者说愚蠢之处一样，”约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际研究学院研究员、华盛顿中东研究所研究员兰达·斯利姆说道。

2024年10月1日，美国海军“布尔克利”号军舰发射导弹，协助拦截伊朗对以色列的弹道导弹袭击。（截图/美国海军）

以色列运动的支持者希望削弱伊朗及其武装代理人，这些代理人攻击美国、以色列及其盟友，压迫公民社会，并且越来越多地与俄罗斯和其他西方对手结盟。

反对者警告说，如果不解决巴勒斯坦人和其他人的不满，军事行动可能会导致无休止的、破坏稳定的战争、叛乱和极端暴力循环，并导致中东各国政府为了控制局势而变得更加专制。

此外，伊朗发展核武器以确保自身生存的威胁也不容忽视。在以色列空袭真主党之前，对以色列军事行动感到担忧的伊朗领导人曾明确表示，他们有意与美国就其核计划重返谈判桌，并声称希望改善两国整体关系。

2024年9月，也门，一名胡塞武装支持者在反以色列和反美集会上举起真主党旗帜。（奥萨马·阿卜杜勒拉赫曼/美联社）

短短几周内，以色列的空袭和情报行动就摧毁了黎巴嫩真主党的领导层、队伍和武器库——真主党曾是中东最强大的战斗力量之一，也是伊朗抵御对其领土发动袭击的海外堡垒——并打击了也门与伊朗结盟的胡塞武装的石油基础设施。

以色列对加沙地带长达一年的空袭似乎已将伊朗盟友哈马斯的领导层削弱至只剩下少数藏身于地下隧道的幸存者。然而，本周以色列军队再次在加沙地带与哈马斯展开激战，而哈马斯在10月7日——该组织发动袭击以色列引发战争的周年纪念日——向特拉维夫发射火箭弹，令人惊讶地展现了其顽强的生命力。

以色列对伊朗的反击预计将加速地区力量格局的转变。此前，伊朗上周向以色列发射弹道导弹，以报复以色列杀害真主党和哈马斯领导人。

这也可能加剧全面地区战争的风险，而美国总统乔·拜登以及之前的几届政府都曾努力避免这种情况的发生。

自上月底以来，以色列加大了袭击力度，使得美国、埃及和卡塔尔为促成加沙停火和释放人质而进行的斡旋努力陷入停滞。美国领导人称，以色列在袭击黎巴嫩真主党领导人之前并未事先警告他们，但他们为以色列的袭击升级辩护，同时仍在推动和平进程。

民主党总统候选人、副总统卡马拉·哈里斯在周一播出的哥伦比亚广播公司“60分钟”节目采访中表示，美国致力于向以色列提供保护自身所需的军事援助，但将继续努力结束冲突。

“我们不会停止向以色列和该地区（包括阿拉伯领导人）施加压力，”她说。

以色列扩大打击范围，对许多人来说，这带来了一个诱人的前景：削弱伊朗与黎巴嫩、伊拉克、叙利亚和也门等国志同道合的武装团体，以及俄罗斯和朝鲜政府的反西方、反以色列联盟。

伊朗的军事联盟被称为“抵抗轴心”，在美国入侵伊拉克推翻萨达姆政权后，该联盟从地区性发展到全球性。萨达姆曾与伊朗雄心勃勃的神权政权进行了长达八年的战争。

2024年10月7日星期一，从以色列北部拍摄的画面显示，黎巴嫩南部发生爆炸后，浓烟升起。（美联社照片/Leo Correa）

但美国干预的意外后果更大，包括伊朗抵抗轴心的崛起和包括伊斯兰国在内的新极端主义组织的出现。

美国陆军在一份关于2003年伊拉克战争经验教训的报告中指出，“胆大妄为、扩张主义盛行的伊朗似乎是这场战争的唯一胜利者”。

“二十年前，谁能想到伊朗有一天会向俄罗斯提供武器？原因在于美国推翻萨达姆政权后，伊朗的影响力日益增强，”巴格达大学政治学教授伊赫桑·阿尔希马里说道。

与 2003 年相比，全球领导人对以色列军方正在推动的权力转移最终将如何影响伊朗、以色列、整个中东以及美国，几乎没有给出明确的方案。

保卫民主基金会的戈德堡表示，伊朗及其盟友的实力正在削弱。纳斯尔说，美国的影响力也在减弱，因为它似乎被以色列拖着走。

乔治城大学卡塔尔分校教授兼中东问题专家梅赫兰·卡姆拉瓦表示，如果以色列陷入黎巴嫩的地面战争，那么这场冲突最终可能会伤害到以色列。

他说：“以色列和伊朗领导人之间长达四十年的深仇大恨已经演变成热战。这正在——而且必将——显著改变中东的战略格局。”

卡姆拉瓦说：“我们无疑正处于变革的边缘。”但“现阶段，变革的方向和性质很难预测。”