Where Republicans are playing offense ahead of the midterms

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The outcome of the 2026 election will be determined primarily by how well Republicans play defense across the growing list of GOP-held House and Senate seats Democrats are targeting. But the GOP is also hoping to play offense by flipping some House and Senate seats Democrats now control.

Because of their redistricting maneuvers, Republicans have more opportunities to flip House seats held by the other side than is typical for the president’s party in midterm elections. In the Senate, Republicans are seriously targeting four Democratic-held seats. But in both chambers, the same collapse in President Donald Trump’s approval rating that is threatening so many GOP incumbents is dimming the party’s prospects of unseating many Democrats.

The Republican financial advantage is large enough that the party can afford to force Democrats to commit resources defending seats they now hold — which is itself a benefit for the GOP. But it has never been easy during a midterm for the president’s party to flip seats held by the other side. And that has been especially true in midterms defined by a wave of discontent with the president’s performance — the conditions that appear to be coalescing this year.

Over nearly the past five decades, the party holding the White House has faced five full-scale wipeouts in House elections. Each time, while losing dozens of their own House seats, the president’s party has struggled to oust many legislators on the other side.

The president’s party flipped no more than four House seats held by the other side during the “wave” midterm elections under Ronald Reagan in 1982, Bill Clinton in 1994, Barack Obama in 2010 and Trump in 2018. In 2006, while losing the House under George W. Bush, Republicans did not capture a single Democratic-held seat. (Amid the more modest Democratic House losses in 2022 under Joe Biden, the party flipped four Republican-held seats.)

Republicans have legitimate reason to expect they can improve on that humble record this year. The National Republican Congressional Committee is officially targeting three dozen Democratic-held seats.

In this environment, Democrats don’t worry too much about Republicans defeating any of the dozen Democrats they are targeting in districts that voted for Kamala Harris in 2024. The major House race forecasters also generally give the GOP modest odds in those seats.

The core of this year’s GOP pick-up opportunity is the 22 Democrats running in seats that voted for Trump in 2024 . About two-thirds of those seats are in states where Republicans have redrawn the congressional maps to improve their chances.

After that gerrymandering offensive, the number of Democrats in Trump-won seats this year will roughly equal the 23 House Republicans who ran in 2018 in seats that voted for Hillary Clinton two years earlier.

Photo Illustration by Alberto Mier/CNN

Tracking states’ unprecedented redistricting efforts

In 2018, Democrats beat 20 of those 23 Clinton-district Republicans. That precedent undergirds the Republican optimism about flipping more seats than usual. “In 2018, Democrats took back their own turf,” says Mike Marinella, press secretary for the NRCC. “Now, in 2026, it’s almost the exact same situation on the other side as Democrats are the ones renting districts in Trump country, and we’re going all in to bring Republican voters home in November.”

But Republicans face many hurdles trying to match the overpowering Democratic 2018 performance in split-ticket districts. The GOP is strongly favored this year in the six seats where the new lines are forcing Democrats to run in districts that gave Trump about 57% of the vote or more (though Democrats and some independent analysts don’t entirely rule out an upset from Democratic incumbents Shomari Figures in Alabama and Darren Soto in Florida, or in an open seat around Houston).

The remaining 16 Democrats running in seats Trump won with 55% of the vote or less, though, are proving more competitive than many analysts initially expected. In 2018, Democrats looking to oust Republicans in districts that voted for Clinton had a huge tailwind of dissatisfaction with Trump. Conversely, Republicans looking to oust Democrats in districts that voted for Trump now face the headwind of discontent with the president.

CJ Warnke, communications director for House Majority PAC, the principal Democratic super PAC investing in House races, says that in the group’s polling, Trump’s approval rating “is underwater across the board, to varying degrees, in every district across the battlefield.” And that means even in districts Trump carried in 2024, association with him may be more anchor than sail in 2026.

The three heavily Latino South Texas Congressional districts that Republicans redrew in their gerrymander captures the GOP’s challenge. State Republicans reconfigured the Rio Grande Valley seats held by Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez and another Democratic seat south of San Antonio so that all three became districts where Trump carried about 55% of the vote in 2024 amid his sweeping gains among Latino voters.

But Trump’s support has eroded across the region. Recent polling by Texas Southern University found that about 55% of voters now disapprove of his performance in both the Cuellar and Gonzalez districts. (The poll didn’t include the San Antonio-area district.)

“It’s pretty obvious to anybody that does a poll that… the president’s popularity in South Texas is surely not what it was two years ago,” says Republican consultant Wayne Hamilton, who runs Project Red TX, an organization dedicated to growing the party in South Texas.

While Trump’s moves to regain control of the southern border have widely received good marks across South Texas, his aggressive deportation drive has generated bitter backlash. Probably even more damaging has been the increase in fuel prices driven by the Iran war.

Johnny Garcia, a sheriff’s deputy in Bexar County who is the Democratic nominee for the San Antonio-area House seat, used Spanish slang for trucks when he noted in an interview that for many Latino men, a “fancy troquita , with their 30-inch jacked-up tires and their loud mufflers” is a source of great pride. “And now,” Garcia added, “we’re seeing, under this administration, that troquita is being parked in the driveway, and they’re being forced to drive their wives’ minivans, because they don’t have the money to afford to fill up that gas tank.”

Hamilton said that amid frustration over the economy and immigration enforcement the best asset for Republicans in these seats will be to remind voters why they rejected Democrats in 2024. “People do not want to go back to that,” Hamilton says. “Republicans have to work to… show (voters) your life is better because Republicans restored law and order on the border and promoted economic development.”

But orienting voters to what they didn’t like about Biden may be difficult when they are so frustrated with conditions under Trump. Mark Jones, a Rice University political scientist who helps manage the Texas Southern poll, says the gerrymander was built on the misguided assumption that Trump’s strong 2024 performance in South Texas represented a reliable new baseline for the GOP. Instead, Jones says, “what we are seeing now across Texas is a reversion to where Republicans normally are with Latino voters, which is winning about 40% of the vote.”

In that environment, most independent analysts consider Cuellar and Gonzalez favorites for reelection, with Garcia, while still an underdog, retaining a plausible chance at an upset.

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images

Steve Schale, a Florida-based Democratic strategist, says a similar reversion is complicating the Republicans’ gerrymander there. While the GOP remains favored to beat Soto, and may hold a small edge in another open Democratic-held district redrawn to become redder, Democratic incumbents Kathy Castor and Jared Moskowitz are proving stubbornly competitive in districts where Trump won comfortably. “The Republicans made a bet… that the Florida of 2022 and 2024 is the Florida that exists in a permanent state,” Schale says.

If Republican support stays that high this year, he says, the GOP will pick up at least three and maybe four of the Democratic seats they have targeted. But, he added, “If you believe, and I do, that the reality is in the middle — in a normal condition, Florida is definitely a different state than it was in 2018 and 2020 but not as Republican as it was in 2024 — then a lot of these districts are really mushy.”

The same could be said about many other districts now held by Democrats where Trump won in 2024 by even smaller margins. Most of them might favor Republicans even in a neutral political environment. But with Trump’s approval rating tumbling toward its lowest point ever, 2026 looks anything but.

Republicans express confidence these districts retain a bedrock distrust of Democrats, especially on cultural issues, that will resurface by Election Day. “They’ve failed to offer voters a viable alternative,” says Marinella. But the GOP’s spending decisions suggest a more cautious view: Since August 1, Republican candidates and committees have spent nearly 10 times as much on advertising defending GOP-held seats ($485 million) as on ads targeting Democratic districts ($50 million), according to AdImpact data analyzed last week by Politico.

Since the 1980s, flipping Senate seats held by the other side has been even more difficult for the president’s party. In the midterms of 1990, 1994, 2006, 2010 and 2014, the president’s party did not capture any Senate seats held by the other side. In 1982, 1986, and 2022, the president’s party flipped just a single seat held by the other side.

Democrats did win three Republican-held Senate seats in 1998 under Clinton, while Republicans captured two Democratic seats under W. Bush in 2002. But both men at those points had an unusually elevated approval rating of about 65% .

Kevin Lamarque/Reuters

The GOP’s 2018 experience offered a variation on that theme: Even while losing the House, Republicans ousted four Democratic senators that year. But all four of those GOP victories came in states Trump carried two years earlier — and where exit polls showed his approval rating remained above 50%, much better than his 45% among voters nationally.

Republicans began this year hoping to contest four Democratic-held Senate seats: Georgia and Michigan in states that Trump won in 2024, and Minnesota and New Hampshire in states he lost. With Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff opening a consistent lead over scandal-tossed Republican Mike Collins, Georgia has virtually fallen off the board for the GOP.

The remaining three GOP opportunities are open seats. In contrast to 2018, Trump’s approval has fallen well below 50% in Michigan and New Hampshire. (No recent public polling that meets CNN standards is available in Minnesota but strategists in both parties agree Trump’s standing is underwater there too.)

In different ways, Republicans are hoping to disconnect the Minnesota and New Hampshire races from the national environment and focus the debate on local concerns.

In Minnesota, the welfare fraud scandals engulfing outgoing Democratic Gov. Tim Walz have hurt Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, the party’s nominee for Senate against Republican Michele Tafoya, a former ESPN sportscaster. In New Hampshire, former Republican Senator John Sununu, who’s been out of elected office since losing a reelection bid in 2008, has kept his distance from Trump and tried to leverage the local popularity of the family name: Both his father and brother served as popular New Hampshire governors.

Dante Scala, a University of New Hampshire political scientist, says he believes “Sununu and his allies are playing their hand as well as they can right now.” But, he adds, with Trump now so unpopular in the state, “I do think in the end those fundamentals will outweigh the tactical maneuvering (from) Sununu.” Rep. Chris Pappas, the Democratic Senate nominee, may be more “sturdy” than scintillating, Scala says, but in such a blue-leaning state, “I think sturdy is more than enough this year.”

Michigan presents a different dynamic. There, Democrats nominated Abdul El-Sayed, an exciting but polarizing left-leaning candidate against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who nearly won a Senate seat in 2024. In polling, El-Sayed consistently has faced more resistance from voters than Jocelyn Benson, the centrist Democratic gubernatorial nominee.

But with Trump’s Michigan disapproval rating scraping 60% in most surveys, “I just think the hill is pretty tall for Rogers given the environment,” says Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics. “And the same thing is true with Minnesota and New Hampshire. Clearly those have been competitive races but (in this climate) I just don’t buy them as actual toss-ups.”

In any year defined by discontent with the president, it’s always been tough to convince voters to provide him more allies in Congress by ousting legislators from the other party. The gerrymanders have provided Republicans more pick up opportunities for the president’s party than usual — but not enough to fundamentally change that enduring equation.

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2026年大选的结果主要取决于共和党在民主党瞄准的日益增多的众议院和参议院席位上的防守表现。但共和党也希望通过夺回一些目前由民主党控制的众议院和参议院席位来展开进攻。

由于共和党人通过重新划分选区，他们比以往总统所在政党在中期选举中更有可能从民主党手中夺取众议院席位。在参议院，共和党人正全力争取四个民主党把持的席位。然而，在参众两院，特朗普总统支持率的暴跌不仅威胁到众多共和党现任议员的席位，也削弱了该党击败众多民主党议员的希望。

共和党的财力优势巨大，足以迫使民主党投入资源捍卫其现有席位——这本身对共和党有利。但对于总统所在的政党而言，在中期选举中夺取对方的席位从来都不是一件容易的事。尤其是在那些因民众对总统表现不满而引发的中期选举中，更是如此——而今年的中期选举似乎正呈现出这种趋势。

在过去近五十年的时间里，执政党在众议院选举中遭遇了五次彻底的溃败。每次，尽管总统所在的政党失去了数十个众议院席位，但他们也难以将对方的许多议员赶下台。

在1982年罗纳德·里根、1994年比尔·克林顿、2010年巴拉克·奥巴马和2018年特朗普执政期间的“中期选举浪潮”中，总统所在的政党最多只从对方手中夺取了四个众议院席位。2006年，尽管在乔治·W·布什的领导下失去了众议院的控制权，共和党却未能从民主党手中夺取任何一个席位。（在2022年乔·拜登执政期间，尽管民主党在众议院的损失相对较小，但该党还是从共和党手中夺取了四个席位。）

共和党人有充分的理由期望今年能够改善他们今年的糟糕战绩。全国共和党国会委员会已正式将目标锁定在36个由民主党把持的席位上。

在这种情况下，民主党人并不太担心共和党人会击败他们在2024年投票支持卡马拉·哈里斯的选区中瞄准的十几位民主党候选人。主要的众议院选举预测机构也普遍认为共和党在这些席位上的胜算不大。

今年共和党夺取席位的核心机会在于22个民主党候选人竞选2024年投票支持特朗普的席位。这些席位中约有三分之二位于共和党重新划分国会选区以提高胜算的州。

经过那次选区划分攻势之后，今年在特朗普赢得的席位中，民主党人的人数将大致等于 2018 年在希拉里·克林顿两年前投票支持的席位中参选的 23 名众议院共和党人。

图片由 Alberto Mier/CNN 提供

追踪各州前所未有的选区重划工作

2018年，民主党在克林顿曾支持的23个选区中击败了20位共和党候选人。这一先例让共和党人对赢得比以往更多的席位充满信心。“2018年，民主党夺回了自己的地盘，”全国共和党国会委员会（NRCC）新闻秘书迈克·马里内拉表示，“现在，到了2026年，情况几乎完全一样，民主党人正在特朗普的票仓地区租借选区，我们将全力以赴，争取在11月赢得共和党选民的支持。”

但共和党人要想在2018年民主党在分裂选区取得压倒性胜利，面临诸多挑战。今年，在六个席位中，共和党占据绝对优势，因为新的选区划分迫使民主党人在这些选区参选，而特朗普在这些选区获得了约57%或更多的选票（尽管民主党人和一些独立分析人士并未完全排除民主党现任议员肖马里·菲格斯（Shomari Figures）在阿拉巴马州和达伦·索托（Darren Soto）在佛罗里达州爆冷获胜的可能性，或者休斯顿附近一个空缺席位的出现。

然而，其余16位在特朗普以55%或更低得票率赢得的选区参选的民主党候选人，其竞争程度却比许多分析人士最初预期的要激烈得多。2018年，民主党人试图在那些投票支持希拉里的选区击败共和党人，当时选民对特朗普的不满情绪为民主党人提供了巨大的助力。相反，如今共和党人试图在那些投票支持特朗普的选区击败民主党人，却面临着选民对总统不满的逆风。

众议院多数党政治行动委员会（House Majority PAC）的通讯主管CJ Warnke表示，该委员会的民调显示，特朗普的支持率“在所有选区都普遍低于50%，程度不一”。众议院多数党政治行动委员会是投资众议院选举的主要民主党超级政治行动委员会。这意味着，即使在特朗普2024年赢得的选区，与他结盟在2026年也可能弊大于利。

共和党人通过选区划分操纵，重新划分了德克萨斯州南部三个拉丁裔人口众多的国会选区，这凸显了共和党面临的挑战。州共和党人重新划分了格兰德河谷地区由民主党众议员亨利·奎利亚尔和维森特·冈萨雷斯占据的席位，以及圣安东尼奥南部另一个民主党席位，使得这三个选区在2024年大选中，特朗普有望凭借其在拉丁裔选民中的压倒性优势，赢得约55%的选票。

但特朗普在该地区的支持率已经下滑。德克萨斯南方大学最近的民调显示，在奎利亚尔和冈萨雷斯两个选区，约有55%的选民对他的表现表示不满。（该民调不包括圣安东尼奥地区的选区。）

“任何做过民意调查的人都会很清楚地发现……总统在德克萨斯州南部的人气肯定不如两年前了，”共和党顾问韦恩·汉密尔顿说道。他运营着“红色德州计划”（Project Red TX），这是一个致力于在德克萨斯州南部发展共和党的组织。

尽管特朗普重新控制南部边境的举措在德克萨斯州南部广受好评，但他强硬的驱逐出境行动却引发了强烈反弹。而伊朗战争导致的燃油价格上涨，或许更具破坏性。

约翰尼·加西亚是贝克萨县的一名警长副手，也是圣安东尼奥地区众议院席位的民主党候选人。他在一次采访中用西班牙语俚语形容卡车，指出对许多拉丁裔男性来说，“一辆改装过的、装着30英寸高胎、排气声震耳欲聋的豪华小卡车”是他们引以为豪的象征。“而现在，”加西亚补充道，“我们看到，在本届政府的领导下，这些小卡车只能停在车道上，车主们被迫开着妻子的面包车，因为他们没钱给卡车加油了。”

汉密尔顿表示，鉴于民众对经济和移民执法方面的不满，共和党在这些选区最大的优势在于提醒选民，他们为何在2024年拒绝了民主党。“人们不想回到过去那种生活，”汉密尔顿说。“共和党人必须努力……向选民证明，因为共和党恢复了边境的法律和秩序，并促进了经济发展，所以他们的生活变得更好了。”

但当选民对特朗普执政下的种种状况感到极度失望时，要让他们意识到自己不喜欢拜登的原因可能并非易事。莱斯大学政治学家马克·琼斯（Mark Jones）协助管理德克萨斯南方大学的民调，他表示，选区划分不公是基于一个错误的假设，即特朗普在2024年大选中在德克萨斯州南部取得的强劲表现代表了共和党可靠的新基准线。琼斯指出，事实并非如此，“我们现在在德克萨斯州各地看到的是，共和党在拉丁裔选民中的支持率回归到了通常水平，即赢得约40%的选票。”

在这种环境下，大多数独立分析人士认为奎利亚尔和冈萨雷斯是连任的热门人选，而加西亚虽然仍处于劣势，但仍有爆冷获胜的可能。

Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc./Getty Images

佛罗里达州民主党策略师史蒂夫·沙尔表示，类似的逆转正在使共和党在该州的选区划分计划变得更加复杂。虽然共和党仍然被看好击败索托，并且在另一个重新划分后更倾向于共和党的、目前由民主党把持的空缺选区中可能略占优势，但民主党现任议员凯西·卡斯特和贾里德·莫斯科维茨在特朗普轻松获胜的选区中却表现出顽强的竞争力。“共和党人押注……2022年和2024年的佛罗里达州将永远保持原有的格局，”沙尔说道。

他表示，如果共和党今年的支持率保持如此高位，共和党至少能拿下民主党瞄准的三个席位，甚至可能四个。但他补充道：“如果你相信（而我确实相信），现实情况介于两者之间——在正常情况下，佛罗里达州肯定与2018年和2020年有所不同，但又不像2024年那样完全是共和党的天下——那么很多选区的选情就非常胶着了。”

对于目前由民主党把持的许多其他选区，也可以这样说，因为特朗普在2024年以更小的优势赢得了这些选区。即使在政治环境中立的情况下，其中大多数选区也可能倾向于共和党。但随着特朗普的支持率跌至历史最低点，2026年的形势远非如此。

共和党人表示，他们相信这些选区对民主党根深蒂固的不信任依然存在，尤其是在文化议题上，这种不信任将在选举日再次浮出水面。“他们没能为选民提供一个切实可行的替代方案，”马里内拉说道。但共和党的支出决策却表明他们持更为谨慎的态度：据Politico上周分析的AdImpact数据显示，自8月1日以来，共和党候选人和委员会在捍卫共和党席位的广告支出（4.85亿美元）几乎是针对民主党选区广告支出（5000万美元）的10倍。

自20世纪80年代以来，总统所在政党想要从对方手中夺取参议院席位变得更加困难。在1990年、1994年、2006年、2010年和2014年的中期选举中，总统所在政党均未能从对方手中赢得任何参议院席位。而在1982年、1986年和2022年，总统所在政党也仅从对方手中夺取了一个席位。

1998年，克林顿领导的民主党赢得了三个共和党把持的参议院席位；2002年，小布什领导的共和党赢得了两个民主党把持的参议院席位。但当时这两位总统的支持率都异常高，约为65%。

凯文·拉马克/路透社

共和党2018年的经历与此类似：尽管失去了众议院的控制权，共和党当年还是击败了四位民主党参议员。但这四场共和党的胜利都发生在特朗普两年前赢得的州——而且出口民调显示，特朗普在这些州的支持率仍然超过50%，远高于他在全国范围内45%的支持率。

今年年初，共和党原本希望挑战四个由民主党把持的参议院席位：佐治亚州和密歇根州（特朗普在2024年赢得了这两个州），以及明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州（特朗普输掉这两个州）。然而，随着民主党参议员乔恩·奥索夫对深陷丑闻的共和党人迈克·柯林斯保持着持续的领先优势，佐治亚州实际上已经不在共和党的争夺范围之内。

共和党剩余的三个席位都是空缺席位。与2018年相比，特朗普在密歇根州和新罕布什尔州的支持率已远低于50%。（明尼苏达州目前没有符合CNN标准的最新民调数据，但两党策略师都认为特朗普在该州的支持率也低于50%。）

共和党人正以不同的方式希望将明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州的竞选与全国环境脱钩，并将辩论的焦点集中在地方问题上。

在明尼苏达州，即将卸任的民主党州长蒂姆·沃尔兹深陷福利欺诈丑闻，这波及到了副州长佩吉·弗拉纳根，她是该党参议员候选人，将与共和党候选人米歇尔·塔福亚（前ESPN体育评论员）展开角逐。在新罕布什尔州，自2008年竞选连任失败后便一直赋闲在家的前共和党参议员约翰·苏努努，一直与特朗普保持距离，并试图利用家族在当地的影响力：他的父亲和哥哥都曾担任过颇受欢迎的新罕布什尔州州长。

新罕布什尔大学政治学家但丁·斯卡拉表示，他认为“苏努努及其盟友目前已经尽力而为”。但他补充道，鉴于特朗普在该州的支持率如此之低，“我认为最终这些基本因素将胜过苏努努的策略性操作”。斯卡拉说，民主党参议员候选人克里斯·帕帕斯或许“稳健”而非“耀眼”，但在这样一个倾向民主党的州，“我认为稳健就足够了”。

密歇根州的情况则有所不同。在那里，民主党提名了阿卜杜勒·埃尔-赛义德，这位令人兴奋但又极具争议的左倾候选人将与前共和党众议员迈克·罗杰斯展开角逐。罗杰斯曾在2024年险些赢得参议院席位。民调显示，埃尔-赛义德一直以来都比中间派民主党州长候选人乔斯林·本森面临更大的选民阻力。

但鉴于特朗普在密歇根州的支持率在大多数民调中都接近60%，弗吉尼亚大学政治中心萨巴托水晶球（Sabato's Crystal Ball）的执行主编凯尔·康迪克表示：“考虑到目前的形势，我认为罗杰斯面临的挑战相当艰巨。明尼苏达州和新罕布什尔州的情况也类似。显然，这些州的选情一直很胶着，但（在这种政治氛围下）我不认为它们会是势均力敌的局面。”

在任何一年，如果民众对总统不满，那么要说服选民通过罢免另一党派的议员来为总统在国会争取更多盟友，总是难上加难。选区划分不公确实为共和党提供了比以往更多的席位增长机会，但这还不足以从根本上改变这一长期存在的格局。