Conflicts and extreme weather pushing global food prices higher, warns UN

UN food price index rises to four-year high, illustrating impact of war and weather.

Wheat grows in a drought-hit field in the English county of Kent, as record low rainfall and extreme heat increase fears of food shortages in Britain [File: Dan Kitwood/Getty Images]

Global food prices have hit a four-year high, the United Nations has warned.

The UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) reported on Friday that its Food Price Index climbed for a third straight month to 133.3 points in August.

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That pushed the measure to its highest level since late 2022, as wars and weather impact supplies, the agency said.

Every category on the index – cereals, vegetable oils, sugar, meat and dairy – rose over the month.

FAO chief economist, Maximo Torero, said the rise is being driven by several factors.

“Climate shocks, geopolitical tensions and disrupted trade logistics are converging to tighten supply expectations,” he said in a statement.

That risk was clearest in sugar, which rose fastest of all the categories tracked, up almost 12 percent from July to its highest point in a year.

Cereal prices climbed more than two percent to their highest level in over two years.

Wheat and maize both became more expensive as military strikes disrupted shipping through the Black Sea, a major route for Russian and Ukrainian grain exports.

Fertiliser supplies faced separate strain from the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. The Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway off Iran’s coast that is being blockaded by both the US and Iran, carries much of the world’s fertiliser trade.

Those increases matter well beyond supermarket shelves, since higher wholesale food costs tend to filter through to consumer prices in the months that follow.

The risk is heightened by global warming, as well as the return of El Nino, the naturally occurring Pacific Ocean warming pattern that disrupts weather worldwide.

The heatwaves that gripped Europe this summer led to a drop in crop yields, while El Nino threatens production in Asia.

The World Food Programme, the UN agency that coordinates emergency food aid, has warned that the weather phenomenon could push another 50 million people into acute hunger by the end of next year.

联合国食品价格指数升至四年来的最高水平，反映出战争和天气的影响。

在英国肯特郡，小麦在干旱的田野里生长，创纪录的低降雨量和极端高温加剧了人们对英国粮食短缺的担忧。[图片：Dan Kitwood/Getty Images]

联合国警告称，全球食品价格已达到四年来的最高水平。

联合国粮食及农业组织（粮农组织）周五报告称，其食品价格指数连续第三个月攀升，8 月份达到 133.3 点。

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该机构表示，由于战争和天气影响物资供应，这使得物资短缺指标达到了自 2022 年底以来的最高水平。

该指数的每个类别——谷物、植物油、糖、肉类和乳制品——都在本月上涨。

联合国粮农组织首席经济学家马克西莫·托雷罗表示，这一增长是由多种因素推动的。

他在一份声明中表示：“气候冲击、地缘政治紧张局势和贸易物流中断正在汇聚，导致供应预期收紧。”

这种风险在糖类中表现得最为明显，糖类是所有追踪类别中涨幅最快的，从 7 月到 1999 年的最高点上涨了近 12%。

谷物价格上涨超过2%，达到两年多来的最高水平。

由于军事打击扰乱了黑海的航运，小麦和玉米的价格都上涨了，而黑海是俄罗斯和乌克兰粮食出口的主要通道。

美国、以色列和伊朗之间的冲突也给化肥供应带来了额外的压力。霍尔木兹海峡是伊朗海岸附近的一条狭窄水道，目前正被美国和伊朗封锁，而世界上大部分化肥贸易都经由这里进行。

这些增长的影响远远超出超市货架，因为更高的食品批发成本往往会在接下来的几个月里传导至消费者价格。

全球变暖以及厄尔尼诺现象的回归加剧了这种风险。厄尔尼诺现象是太平洋自然发生的变暖模式，会扰乱全球天气。

今年夏天席卷欧洲的热浪导致农作物产量下降，而厄尔尼诺现象则威胁着亚洲的农作物生产。

联合国负责协调紧急粮食援助的世界粮食计划署警告称，这种天气现象可能导致到明年年底再有 5000 万人陷入严重饥饿。