Germany’s far right AfD eyes election breakthrough in Saxony-Anhalt

The nationalist party that promises to strip back asylum rights is poised to secure more than 40 percent of the votes in the state.

Saxony-Anhalt elections: Germany's far-right AFD on track to secure majority

Mario Jung does not fit the profile of a political hardliner. The 59-year-old banking clerk, who lives in Magdeburg in eastern Germany, has voted for the country’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in the past.

But he blames former Chancellor Angela Merkel for pushing the CDU to the left and on Sunday, in the state election in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, he will back the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

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“I am a conservative, and the main reason for me to vote for the (far-right) AfD is the economy,” he told Al Jazeera.

He also agrees with the AfD’s hardline immigration policy.

“All illegal immigrants, those whose applications have been denied, and criminal immigrants as well – they have to be deported; there is no question about it,” he said.

The regional elections pose a test for Germany’s political establishment, with the AfD in contention for top positions in the state government.

In Saxony-Anhalt, it is poised to become the first far-right force to head a German state government since World War II, with the AfD’s leading candidate, Ulrich Siegmund.

He was dubbed “Germany’s most dangerous man” by the influential magazine Der Spiegel. Before becoming a politician for the AfD, Siegmund was a member of the CDU.

The party has been classified as “far-right extremist” in Saxony-Anhalt by Germany’s domestic intelligence service. The AfD is leading the state by a wide margin in the polls, expected to win more than 40 percent of the votes.

The conservative CDU is far behind at just above 20 percent, followed by the Left Party at 12 percent, the Social Democrats at 7 percent and the Greens at 5 percent. Depending on which smaller parties clear the threshold to enter parliament, the other parties could potentially form a majority without the AfD. But German Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) recently ruled out cooperation with both the Left Party and the AfD, a party whose officials have used Nazi slogans.

Nationalism at the fore

In its election platform, titled “The Country First”, the AfD calls for the abolition of the right to asylum, the confiscation of cash and assets of asylum seekers and mass deportations.

Anyone who insults German identity or the “historical-cultural entity Germany” could face a prison sentence, according to the campaign. The party also seeks to ban the “Antifa” movement, cancel public broadcasting and reverse the shift towards renewable energy.

Founded in 2013 as a Eurosceptic party in the aftermath of the European Union financial crisis, it gained ground during Merkel’s 2015 decision to admit about a million refugees, many of them Syrian.

It has since shifted further right, dominated today by a nationalist wing and hardline factions in the east, hardline immigration positions and opposition to sanctions on Russia.

The AfD has also repeatedly politicised attacks by asylum seekers or Germans with foreign descent.

While critics argue that such incidents receive excessive media focus, the deadly car attack at Berlin’s Pride parade in July keeps pushing the topic into the headlines. AfD blamed the “catastrophic migration policy of the last few years”, but the attacker had been born in Germany.

Why is AfD on the rise?

Experts have put forward various hypotheses to explain the party’s popularity .

Last year, it became the second-largest party in the Bundestag, securing 21 percent of the vote in federal elections.

In Germany’s eastern states, which were formerly part of the German Democratic Republic (GDR) and the Eastern Bloc and underwent a radical transition after reunification, structural factors are at play, analysts say.

The region is characterised by a lack of jobs, a shortage of local doctors, the decline of public transportation, depopulated villages, and a persistent perception that the eastern states are governed by distant liberal elites in Berlin.

Thomas Biebricher, a professor at Goethe University Frankfurt, believes the main reason for the AfD’s success “is widespread dissatisfaction with the political situation, the federal government and the overall economic situation in the country. At the same time, the AfD has managed to nominate a lead candidate who is doing a very good job,” he told Al Jazeera.

While the party is often seen as most popular among workers, its success is also linked to “parts of the capitalist class” who are pushing a neoliberal agenda, Biebricher said.

“There are influential AfD supporters who believe that capitalism is over-regulated, that taxes should be lowered, and that the state, overall, should simply intervene less.

“If it were to enter government, it would be the first time since 1945 that a party with a far-right agenda would enter government at the state level,” he added. It would “also cause considerable damage to Germany’s image”.

For several years, the CDU has been debating nationwide how to deal with the AfD. At the local level, the “principle of non-cooperation” – also known as the “firewall”- has already been abandoned.

Martin Schroder, a professor of social sciences at Saarland University, believes that the AfD’s migration policy is crucial for its success.

Together with a team, he conducted a study based on data from 2014 to 2024.

“Concerns about immigration explain support for the AfD nearly 10 times as much as actual or perceived economic disadvantage,” he told Al Jazeera.

Another key election takes place on September 20 in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD is also polling at about 37 percent.

Like Saxony-Anhalt, the northeastern state was formerly part of the GDR. Berlin will also go to the polls that day. In the capital, which is also one of Germany’s 16 federal states, the CDU currently leads with 21 percent, followed by the Left Party at 19 percent and the AfD at 18 percent.

这个承诺剥夺庇护权的民族主义政党有望在该州获得超过 40% 的选票。

萨克森-安哈尔特州选举：德国极右翼政党德国选择党有望赢得多数席位

马里奥·荣格并不符合强硬派政治家的形象。这位59岁的银行职员居住在德国东部的马格德堡，过去曾投票支持该国的保守派基督教民主联盟（基民盟）。

但他指责前总理安格拉·默克尔将基民盟推向左翼，并将在周日萨克森-安哈尔特州的州选举中支持极右翼的德国另类选择党（AfD）。

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“我是一个保守派，我投票给（极右翼的）德国选择党的主要原因是经济，”他告诉半岛电视台。

他也赞同德国选择党的强硬移民政策。

他说：“所有非法移民、申请被拒的人以及犯罪移民——他们都必须被驱逐出境；这一点毋庸置疑。”

此次地方选举是对德国政治体制的一次考验，德国选择党（AfD）有望在州政府中占据要职。

在萨克森-安哈尔特州，德国选择党有望成为二战以来第一个领导德国州政府的极右翼势力，该党的领军候选人是乌尔里希·西格蒙德。

他被颇具影响力的《明镜周刊》称为“德国最危险的人物”。在加入德国选择党之前，西格蒙德曾是基民盟的成员。

德国国内情报机构已将该党在萨克森-安哈尔特州列为“极右翼极端主义”政党。民调显示，德国选择党在该州大幅领先，预计将赢得超过40%的选票。

保守派基民盟的支持率仅略高于20%，远远落后于其他政党；左翼党以12%的支持率位居第二，社会民主党为7%，绿党为5%。其他政党有可能在没有德国选择党的情况下组成多数派，这取决于哪些小党能够达到进入议会的门槛。但德国总理弗里德里希·默茨（基民盟成员）最近排除了与左翼党和德国选择党合作的可能性，后者曾有官员使用过纳粹口号。

民族主义占据主导地位

德国选择党在其名为“国家优先”的竞选纲领中呼吁废除庇护权、没收寻求庇护者的现金和资产并进行大规模驱逐出境。

该竞选纲领称，任何侮辱德国身份或“德国历史文化实体”的人都可能面临监禁。该党还寻求取缔“反法西斯主义运动”（Antifa），取消公共广播，并逆转向可再生能源转型的趋势。

该党成立于 2013 年，是欧盟金融危机后成立的一个疑欧派政党，在默克尔 2015 年决定接收约 100 万难民（其中许多是叙利亚难民）期间获得了支持。

此后，该党进一步右倾，如今由东部的民族主义派和强硬派主导，在移民问题上持强硬立场，并反对对俄罗斯实施制裁。

德国选择党也屡次将寻求庇护者或具有外国血统的德国人发动的袭击政治化。

尽管批评人士认为此类事件受到媒体过度关注，但7月柏林骄傲游行中发生的致命汽车袭击事件却持续将这一话题推上新闻头条。德国选择党将袭击归咎于“过去几年灾难性的移民政策”，但袭击者本人却出生于德国。

为什么德国另类选择党（AfD）的势力正在崛起？

专家们提出了各种假设来解释该党受欢迎的原因。

去年，该党成为联邦议院第二大党，在联邦选举中获得了 21% 的选票。

分析人士表示，在德国东部各州（这些州以前是德意志民主共和国 (GDR) 和东欧集团的一部分，统一后经历了彻底的转型），结构性因素正在发挥作用。

该地区的特点是缺乏就业机会、当地医生短缺、公共交通衰落、村庄人口减少，以及人们普遍认为东部各州由远在柏林的自由派精英统治。

法兰克福歌德大学教授托马斯·比布里希尔认为，德国选择党成功的主要原因是“民众对当前的政治局势、联邦政府以及国家整体经济状况普遍不满。与此同时，德国选择党也成功推选出了一位表现非常出色的领衔候选人，”他告诉半岛电视台。

比布里彻表示，虽然该党通常被认为在工人阶级中最受欢迎，但它的成功也与推行新自由主义议程的“部分资本家阶级”有关。

“一些有影响力的德国选择党支持者认为，资本主义受到过度监管，应该降低税收，而且总体而言，国家应该减少干预。

他补充说：“如果该党进入政府，这将是自1945年以来，首次有极右翼政党进入州级政府。” 这“也会对德国的形象造成相当大的损害”。

多年来，基民盟一直在全国范围内讨论如何应对德国选择党。在地方层面，“不合作原则”（也称为“防火墙”）已被放弃。

萨尔兰大学社会科学教授马丁·施罗德认为，德国选择党的移民政策对其成功至关重要。

他与团队一起，根据 2014 年至 2024 年的数据进行了一项研究。

他对半岛电视台表示：“对移民问题的担忧解释了人们对德国选择党的支持，其程度几乎是实际或感知到的经济劣势的 10 倍。”

另一场关键选举将于 9 月 20 日在梅克伦堡-前波美拉尼亚州举行，德国选择党在该州的支持率也约为 37%。

与萨克森-安哈尔特州一样，这个位于德国东北部的州也曾是东德的一部分。柏林也将在当天举行选举。在首都柏林（柏林也是德国16个联邦州之一），基民盟目前以21%的支持率领先，其次是左翼党（19%）和德国选择党（18%）。