Can the Green Party’s Polanski take on Labour and win Starmer’s old seat?

Analysts say although Polanski and the Greens have performed well this year, toppling Labour in its traditional stronghold could prove a much harder task.

Green Party leader Zack Polanski [File: Jon Super/AP]

When Britain’s former Prime Minister Keir Starmer stood down as the member of parliament for Holborn and St Pancras this week, he ended more than a decade representing a seat that has never elected anyone but a Labour MP since it was established in 1983.

The by-election it triggered which is expected later this year would ordinarily be a formality, but instead, it has become the most closely watched contest of the parliamentary term.

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That is because Zack Polanski , the Green Party leader, the self-styled “eco-populist”, who has taken his party from the margins to double-digit polling in a year, announced on Thursday that he will seek nomination for the seat. He now needs to be chosen by local party members as the Green candidate for the seat.

Voting records offer him both encouragement and a warning.

Starmer won 48.9 per cent of the vote in 2024; the Greens finished third on 10.4 per cent, behind a pro-Palestinian independent, Andrew Feinstein .

But in the Camden council elections in May, the borough the constituency is in, the Greens won 28.8 percent across its wards to Labour’s 38.8, taking seats in Starmer’s own patch for the first time.

Al Jazeera spoke to political scientists and election analysts about whether Polanski has a realistic path to Westminster.

Outgoing Prime Minister Keir Starmer as he leaves 10 Downing Street, July 20, 2026 [Kin Cheung/AP]

A Green win would be a ‘surprise’

Since Polanski became Green Party leader a year ago, it has achieved some success in taking support from Labour’s left.

That includes a surprise by-election victory in Greater Manchester , while the party is currently polling as high as 20 percent nationally.

Despite the Green Party’s recent results in Camden, experts say that Holborn and St Pancras is a strong Labour seat.

“A Green win would be a surprise,” Jonathan Tonge, professor of politics at the University of Liverpool, told Al Jazeera.

For that to change, he said, the current prime minister and Labour leader, Andy Burnham, would have to see his “honeymoon period” end quickly. A “disastrous budget” on October 28 could do just that, he added.

He also said the timing of the by-election is key.

“If Burnham has a good party conference in Liverpool (in late September), the honeymoon should continue until that budget at least; the later the by-election, the trickier for Labour. They will want a quick contest.”

Britain’s Prime Minister Andy Burnham [File: Jack Taylor/AFP]

Burnham came to power after nine years as mayor of Greater Manchester and arrived untainted by scandals.

To many Britons, it felt refreshing, after Starmer’s appointment of Peter Mandelson as ambassador to Washington – despite his ties to Jeffrey Epstein.

In an August YouGov survey, 46 percent of Britons had a favourable opinion of Burnham.

In contrast to Starmer’s lawyerly caution, Burnham brings a more down-to-earth, outsider style that seeks to cut through Westminster politics, an approach that Polanski has echoed.

Polanski’s history at play

Polanski’s critics have said he would look parachuted in, while he says he has lived and worked in the area for years.

Polanski told Camden New Journal, “I have lived and worked in this community over many years. I know it well, and I love it”.

“It represents so many of the things that make London so special. I am so excited by the prospect of representing this place in Parliament,” he is quoted as saying.

But Tonge said Polanski is seen “as too left-wing by some voters who prefer the safer Labour option”.

The so-called “Burnham bounce” Labour is revelling in may also hamper Polanski’s chances, he said.

The Green leader’s political history may also stand in his way, John McTernan, political secretary to former Prime Minister Tony Blair, told Al Jazeera, pointing out that Polanski first stood in the constituency in 2015 as a Liberal Democrat, winning 96 votes in a Camden council by-election.

He also had to apologise earlier this year over a council tax issue on his houseboat, with a Green Party spokesperson saying: “Zack apologises sincerely for the unintentional mistake”.

He later admitted he had not voted in May’s local election, saying he had been moving and “fell short of time” to register at his new address.

Zack Polanski congratulates Zoe Garbett as she is elected the new Mayor for Hackney in London, May 8, 2026 [Leon Neal/Getty]

Greens may have ‘peaked’: Expert

The Greens have never been here before. From 2010 to 2024, they had just one MP.

That changed in February when the Greens won the Gorton and Denton by-election. Hannah Spencer, a local plumber and Green councillor, won 40.7 per cent of the vote in an area Labour had represented since 1931.

It marked the Greens’ first-ever parliamentary by-election win, their highest by-election vote share by a margin of 30 points. The win ushered in their first MP in the north of England.

In May, across London, they went from 18 council seats to 279, taking six boroughs and winning their first directly elected mayors in Hackney and Lewisham, while Labour recorded its worst London local result since 1968. Nationally, the party won 587 seats, its highest ever.

The Greens have momentum on their side but may have “peaked”, said Tonge.

McTernan said Polanski should be wary of conflating this year’s successes with evidence of his own popularity. He should instead see them as dissatisfaction with Starmer and a “message sent by progressive voters” that they didn’t want him.

The August YouGov survey also shows that just 19 percent of Britons now have a favourable opinion of Polanski, down seven points from his peak in April.

McTernan said putting Polanski forward may hamper the Greens as “by-elections often punish candidates perceived as focused on their own self-importance”.

He pointed to Clacton, where Nigel Farage , leader of the far-right , anti-immigration party Reform UK, resigned his seat in July amid scrutiny of his finances and then recontested it.

With the main parties boycotting that election, the satirical candidate Count Binface, a comedian who campaigns wearing a bin on his head, took 26.7 percent of the vote, the highest share ever won by a novelty candidate in a British parliamentary election.

分析人士表示，尽管波兰斯基和绿党今年的表现不错，但在工党的传统堡垒中推翻工党可能是一项更加艰巨的任务。

绿党领袖扎克·波兰斯基 [图片：Jon Super/AP]

本周，英国前首相基尔·斯塔默辞去了霍尔本和圣潘克拉斯选区议员的职务，结束了他十多年来代表该选区的历史。自 1983 年该选区设立以来，该选区从未选举过工党议员以外的任何候选人。

由此引发的补选预计将于今年晚些时候举行，这原本只是走个形式，但现在却成为了议会任期内最受关注的竞争。

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伯纳姆预计英国将禁止进口以色列定居点商品，此举获得广泛支持（共4条）。

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这是因为绿党领袖、自诩为“生态民粹主义者”的扎克·波兰斯基周四宣布，他将寻求该席位的提名。波兰斯基在一年内将绿党从边缘政党推向了两位数的支持率。现在，他需要由当地党员推选为绿党该席位的候选人。

投票记录既给他带来了鼓励，也带来了警示。

斯塔默在 2024 年赢得了 48.9% 的选票；绿党以 10.4% 的得票率位列第三，落后于亲巴勒斯坦的独立候选人安德鲁·费恩斯坦。

但在 5 月份举行的卡姆登区议会选举中，绿党在该选区内赢得了 28.8% 的选票，而工党则赢得了 38.8% 的选票，绿党首次在斯塔默自己的地盘上赢得了席位。

半岛电视台采访了政治学家和选举分析人士，探讨波兰斯基是否有现实的途径进入威斯敏斯特。

即将卸任的首相基尔·斯塔默于2026年7月20日离开唐宁街10号。[Kin Cheung/AP]

绿党获胜将是一个“意外”。

自从波兰斯基一年前成为绿党领袖以来，绿党在争取工党左翼的支持方面取得了一些成功。

这其中包括在大曼彻斯特地区意外赢得补选，而该党目前在全国的民调支持率高达 20%。

尽管绿党最近在卡姆登取得了一些成绩，但专家表示，霍尔本和圣潘克拉斯是工党的传统票仓。

“绿党获胜将令人意外，”利物浦大学政治学教授乔纳森·汤格告诉半岛电视台。

他表示，要想改变这种局面，现任首相兼工党领袖安迪·伯纳姆的“蜜月期”必须尽快结束。他还补充说，10月28日公布的“灾难性预算案”或许就能达到这个目的。

他还表示，补选的时机至关重要。

“如果伯纳姆在利物浦（九月下旬）召开的党代会取得成功，那么蜜月期至少应该会持续到预算案公布；补选越晚，对工党就越不利。他们会希望尽快结束选举。”

英国首相安迪·伯纳姆 [图片：杰克·泰勒/法新社]

伯纳姆在担任大曼彻斯特市长九年后上台执政，并且没有卷入任何丑闻。

在斯塔默任命彼得·曼德尔森为驻华盛顿大使之后，许多英国人感到耳目一新——尽管曼德尔森与杰弗里·爱泼斯坦有联系。

在8月份YouGov的一项调查中，46%的英国人对伯纳姆持好感。

与斯塔默律师般的谨慎不同，伯纳姆带来了一种更接地气、局外人的风格，力图突破威斯敏斯特政治的束缚，波兰斯基也曾效仿过这种做法。

波兰斯基的历史在起作用

波兰斯基的批评者说他看起来像是空降而来，而他则表示自己已经在该地区生活和工作多年。

波兰斯基告诉《卡姆登新日报》：“我多年来一直生活和工作在这个社区。我非常了解这里，我热爱这里。”

“它代表了伦敦的许多独特之处。我非常激动能够代表这个地方进入议会，”他说道。

但汤格表示，波兰斯基“在一些更喜欢更稳妥的工党选择的选民眼中过于左倾”。

他说，工党目前所享受的所谓“伯纳姆效应”也可能阻碍波兰斯基的胜算。

绿党领袖的政治历史也可能成为他的绊脚石。前首相托尼·布莱尔的政治秘书约翰·麦克特南告诉半岛电视台，波兰斯基在2015年首次以自由民主党人的身份参加该选区的竞选，并在卡姆登市议会补选中赢得了96张选票。

今年早些时候，他还因为船屋的市政税问题而道歉，绿党发言人表示：“扎克对这个无意的错误真诚道歉”。

他后来承认自己没有参加五月份的地方选举，称他当时正在搬家，“时间不够”在新地址登记投票。

2026年5月8日，扎克·波兰斯基祝贺佐伊·加贝特当选伦敦哈克尼区新任区长。[Leon Neal/Getty]

专家：绿党可能已达“巅峰”

绿党此前从未出现过这种情况。从2010年到2024年，他们只有一名议员。

这种情况在二月份发生了改变，当时绿党赢得了戈顿和登顿的补选。当地水管工兼绿党议员汉娜·斯宾塞在工党自1931年以来一直占据的选区赢得了40.7%的选票。

这是绿党历史上首次赢得议会补选，其得票率比以往任何一次补选都高出30个百分点。此次胜利也让绿党在英格兰北部赢得了首位议员席位。

5月份，在伦敦，该党议会席位从18个增加到279个，赢得了6个行政区，并在哈克尼和刘易舍姆首次赢得了直选市长，而工党则在伦敦地方选举中遭遇了自1968年以来最差的成绩。在全国范围内，该党赢得了587个席位，创历史新高。

Tonge表示，绿党目前势头正盛，但可能已经“达到顶峰”。

麦克特南表示，波兰斯基应该谨慎对待今年的选举结果，不要将其与自身受欢迎程度混为一谈。他应该将这些结果视为选民对斯塔默的不满，以及“进步选民发出的不想要他的信号”。

YouGov 8 月份的调查还显示，目前只有 19% 的英国人对波兰斯基有好感，比 4 月份的峰值下降了 7 个百分点。

麦克特南表示，推举波兰斯基可能会阻碍绿党，因为“补选往往会惩罚那些被认为过于注重自身重要性的候选人”。

他指出，在克拉克顿，极右翼反移民政党“改革英国”的领导人奈杰尔·法拉奇在7月份因其财务状况受到审查而辞去了议员职务，然后又重新参选。

由于主要政党抵制了那次选举，讽刺候选人“垃圾桶伯爵”（Count Binface）——一位头戴垃圾桶进行竞选的喜剧演员——获得了 26.7% 的选票，这是英国议会选举中新奇候选人获得的最高得票率。