Strait of Hormuz tensions linger as Iran and US move further from a deal

There are fears that fighting between the US and Iran will renew, after President Trump rejected a deal for the Strait of Hormuz.

A billboard about the Strait of Hormuz on a building in Tehran, September 16, 2026 [Majid Asgaripour/West Asia News Agency]

Tehran, Iran – Hours after US President Donald Trump rejected a diplomatic solution put forward by Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, explosions were heard in the waterway, according to Iranian media.

Reports of blasts near southern Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz suggested that multiple antiship missiles and drones were fired at vessels transiting the waterway against Tehran’s wishes.

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While Iranian authorities did not confirm any attacks in the Strait of Hormuz that day, shipping continues to be attacked in the waters, including an Indian cargo ship last week, which killed a sailor .

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintains that the strait is closed to any ship that does not coordinate with Iranian authorities. On Sunday afternoon, it released video of what it said was a second US underwater drone seized this month.

Tehran has issued instructions to shipping companies transiting the Strait of Hormuz to use a temporary route approved by Iranian authorities and pay relevant fees. But it has also said the strait will not fully reopen until the US blockade on Iranian ports ends.

Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority announced on Saturday that it would blacklist any shipping charterer company which orders crews to use routes it considers to be unauthorised.

It also published what it described as an apology from an unnamed shipowner blaming commercial pressure from its charterer for trying to pass through the strait.

Washington still insists that its warships are successfully guiding oil tankers out of the strait via a different route. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News on Sunday that the “running average” of crude oil in transit was nearly 13 million barrels per day.

A September 19 operational update by US Central Command claimed that its forces had helped move more than one billion barrels of crude out of the Gulf over roughly two months.

The US military also says its forces have redirected 122 commercial vessels to enforce the naval blockade of Iran’s ports , halting all Iranian crude exports.

Tehran has claimed that the US is providing false information regarding Strait of Hormuz traffic to project control over the key waterway. Shipping has been severely disrupted since the US and Israel started their war on Iran on February 28.

Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King’s College London, said Iran’s strategy of launching maritime attacks has spread the economic costs of the conflict beyond its borders.

While Iran has suffered economically from war damages, the US naval blockade and sanctions, it would be a mistake “to assume that reaching that threshold produces submission”.

“The next Iranian move is therefore likely to be an attempt to increase the pain experienced by the Gulf rather than simply absorb further American pressure,” Krieg said.

“That could mean more aggressive vessel interdictions in Hormuz, attacks on energy infrastructure, greater Houthi pressure around Bab al-Mandeb and pressure from Iranian-aligned groups against alternative Saudi export routes. We are already seeing how pressure on Hormuz, the Red Sea and Saudi infrastructure can interact.”

The flight deck of the USS George Washington aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea, September 11, 2026 [Ed Ou/Reuters]

More escalation on the way

At the United Nations General Assembly in New York, Iran projected a message of defiance while also proposing to reopen the Strait of Hormuz within a week if its seven conditions were met.

They included lifting the blockade on Iran, the release of frozen Iranian funds and an end to attacks on all fronts, including Israel’s assault on Lebanon. The demands mostly amounted to a return to the June memorandum of understanding between the US and Israel .

Tehran has added that reopening the strait must be undertaken through a bilateral arrangement already finalised with Oman, the only other country with territorial waters in Hormuz.

US President Donald Trump told reporters he rejected the offer, but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on Sunday they were adamant about the conditions and would await an official response through mediators, such as Pakistan, Qatar and Oman.

Abolfazl Shekarchi, chief spokesman of the Iranian armed forces, warned that if the US further intervenes in the Strait of Hormuz, “it will get slapped”.

“The Americans have no way out other than withdrawing from the West Asia region. The sooner they leave, the fewer losses they will incur and the region will certainly become safe after that,” he said.

Iranian army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia said conditions were deteriorating so badly for the US that it might launch another “military aggression” on Iran.

Krieg said that as the US moves to isolate Iran via sanctions, Tehran, unable to respond with mutual financial measures against Washington, will be forced to rely on continued coercion in the Strait of Hormuz.

“The most likely level remains controlled attrition rather than an immediate return to the massive air campaign of the opening months,” Krieg said.

“Over the coming weeks, I would expect further attacks or attempted attacks on tankers, US-enabled shipping and regional infrastructure, followed by limited US strikes against IRGC maritime assets, coastal missile positions, drones or vessels involved in those operations. That tit-for-tat cycle has already re-emerged around Hormuz.”

特朗普总统拒绝了霍尔木兹海峡协议，人们担心美国和伊朗之间的冲突会再次爆发。

2026年9月16日，德黑兰一栋建筑上的霍尔木兹海峡广告牌。[Majid Asgaripour/西亚通讯社]

伊朗德黑兰——据伊朗媒体报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普拒绝了伊朗提出的重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的外交解决方案数小时后，该水道传来爆炸声。

有报道称，在伊朗南部霍尔木兹海峡的格什姆岛附近发生爆炸，这表明伊朗违背德黑兰的意愿，向通过该水道的船只发射了多枚反舰导弹和无人机。

列表 1/4：特朗普拒绝伊朗提出的结束战争和重新开放霍尔木兹海峡的七天路线图

列表 2/4：由于战争阻碍了霍尔木兹海峡的通行，伊朗将贸易重心北移至里海。

也门政府军扩大对胡塞武装的攻势（共四项，此为第三项）：我们目前掌握的信息

列表 4（共 4 篇）“更好的协议”：特朗普拒绝伊朗停火提议的背后原因是什么？

虽然伊朗当局没有证实当天在霍尔木兹海峡发生任何袭击事件，但该水域的船只仍在不断遭到袭击，包括上周一艘印度货船遭到袭击，造成一名船员死亡。

伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队（IRGC）坚称，任何不与伊朗当局协调的船只都不得通过该海峡。周日下午，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队发布了一段视频，称这是本月缴获的第二架美国水下无人机。

德黑兰已指示途经霍尔木兹海峡的航运公司使用伊朗当局批准的临时航线并缴纳相关费用。但伊朗方面也表示，在美国解除对伊朗港口的封锁之前，霍尔木兹海峡不会完全重新开放。

伊朗波斯湾海峡管理局周六宣布，将把任何命令船员使用其认为未经授权航线的船舶租赁公司列入黑名单。

它还刊登了一份据称是匿名船东的道歉声明，声明中船东将试图通过海峡归咎于租船人的商业压力。

华盛顿方面仍然坚称，其军舰正在成功引导油轮通过另一条航线驶出海峡。美国能源部长克里斯·赖特周日告诉福克斯新闻，原油运输的“平均”日均运输量接近1300万桶。

美国中央司令部 9 月 19 日发布的一份作战更新报告称，其部队在大约两个月的时间里帮助将超过 10 亿桶原油从墨西哥湾运出。

美国军方还表示，其部队已调派 122 艘商船执行对伊朗港口的海上封锁，从而停止了伊朗所有原油出口。

德黑兰方面声称，美国提供有关霍尔木兹海峡航运的虚假信息，旨在展示其对这条重要水道的控制权。自2月28日美国和以色列对伊朗发动战争以来，航运已受到严重干扰。

伦敦国王学院副教授安德烈亚斯·克里格表示，伊朗发动海上袭击的战略已将冲突的经济成本扩散到​​其国界之外。

虽然伊朗在经济上遭受了战争破坏、美国海军封锁和制裁，但“认为达到那个门槛就会屈服”是错误的。

克里格表示：“因此，伊朗的下一步行动很可能是试图加剧海湾国家所遭受的痛苦，而不是简单地承受美国进一步的压力。”

“这可能意味着霍尔木兹海峡将出现更激进的船只拦截行动，能源基础设施将遭受袭击，胡塞武装将在曼德海峡周边施加更大压力，而伊朗支持的团体也将对沙特阿拉伯的其他出口路线施压。我们已经看到，对霍尔木兹海峡、红海和沙特阿拉伯基础设施的压力会如何相互作用。”

2026年9月11日，阿拉伯海中的“乔治·华盛顿”号航空母舰飞行甲板。[Ed Ou/路透社]

事态即将进一步升级

在纽约联合国大会上，伊朗发出了挑衅的信息，同时提出如果满足其七个条件，将在一周内重新开放霍尔木兹海峡。

这些要求包括解除对伊朗的封锁、解冻伊朗资金以及停止所有战线的袭击，包括以色列对黎巴嫩的进攻。这些要求主要集中在恢复美以两国6月份签署的谅解备忘录。

德黑兰方面补充说，重新开放海峡必须通过与阿曼（霍尔木兹海峡唯一拥有领海的其他国家）已经敲定的双边安排来进行。

美国总统唐纳德·特朗普告诉记者，他拒绝了这一提议，但伊朗外交部长阿巴斯·阿拉格奇周日表示，他们坚持这些条件，并将等待巴基斯坦、卡塔尔和阿曼等调解人的正式回应。

伊朗武装部队首席发言人阿博法兹勒·谢卡尔奇警告说，如果美国进一步干预霍尔木兹海峡，“它将遭到反击”。

他说：“美国人除了撤出西亚地区别无选择。他们撤得越早，损失就越小，该地区此后也肯定会变得安全。”

伊朗军方发言人穆罕默德·阿克拉米尼亚表示，美国的处境正在急剧恶化，美国可能会对伊朗发动另一次“军事侵略”。

克里格表示，随着美国通过制裁孤立伊朗，德黑兰无法对华盛顿采取对等的金融措施，将被迫继续在霍尔木兹海峡进行胁迫。

克里格说：“最有可能的情况仍然是控制消耗战，而不是立即恢复到开局几个月的大规模空袭行动。”

“未来几周，我预计油轮、美国支持的航运和地区基础设施将遭受更多袭击或袭击未遂，随后美国将对伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队的海上资产、沿海导弹阵地、无人机或参与这些行动的船只进行有限的打击。这种针锋相对的循环已经在霍尔木兹附近重新出现。”