‘Is it really worth it to keep going on?’ Economic pain hits America’s farm belt

John Yeley has spent the last 26 years working on his farm, which his family has owned since 1852.

Yeley is the seventh generation to run his farm in Illinois, just over the state line from Indiana. Although he plans to keep doing so, he’s not sure he wants his 16-year-old son and 12-year-old daughter to take over because the current economics are so rough.

“Right now, the way all of this is now, no, I wouldn’t wish it on them,” he said about farming.

Farmers like Yeley as well as agriculture experts agree that the farming sector is in a painful recession. Farms are dealing with record-high diesel prices , a fuel that is critical to their equipment. Trade disputes have cut off access to vital markets. Wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have sent fertilizer costs soaring, just as farmers pay higher interest rates on the loans needed to get from planting to harvest season.

Yeley is not sure he’ll earn a profit this season, even with prices up for for his corn and soybeans.

“We’re not a big county, but we’ve had three farmers go under this year,” said Yeley. “I know that’s on the minds of everybody, is it really worth it to keep going on? The stress level is pretty high.”

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Currently, the price of diesel is the most pressing problem for farmers.

Diesel is a workhouse fuel that powers farming equipment, like tractors and combines. The national average for diesel has accelerated faster than the price of gasoline and is now near its recent an all-time high of $6.53. In many states in the Midwest farm belt, the cost is even greater: The average price in Illinois, for example, was $6.82 as of Friday.

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Farmers generally buy thousands of gallons each year. Yeley usually buys 8,500 gallons twice a year to run his equipment.

“This is the first year in my adult life that we have not bought an entire transport load either spring or fall due to fuel cost. We’ve been buying it piecemeal … 1,000 or 1,500 gallons at a time, hoping that we’d see a price drop,” he said. “Unfortunately, it’s not happening.”

Sammy Tookey grows all manner of produce — tomatoes, corn, melons, peppers, squash, lettuce and chiles — on 10 acres in northern California’s wine country. He sells about half his harvest to a food co-op and the other half at three farmers’ markets each week.

He’s feeling the squeeze from higher prices for diesel, as well as cardboard boxes and fertilizer – costs of which have also increased by double digits over the past year.

Russia’s war with Ukraine first cut off supply of some of the raw materials needed to make fertilizer, boosting prices. That only got worse this year, when the war in the Middle East cut off fertilizer exports. Fertilizer prices are as much as 50% higher in the last year, according to experts and farmers.

George Kibby/Sammy Tookey

Tookey has raised his prices but not enough to keep up with ballooning expenses. He said he doesn’t want to scare off customers.

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While he plans to plant again in the spring, he’s uncertain how long he’ll remain a farmer. Tookey is getting married in late October and worries about how he’ll support children.

“Being able to have a family and a farm seems almost impossible,” he said.

Tookey’s stepfather, George Kibby, has a bleaker view of the current state of farming. He retired in July after 40 years in the industry because the land he leased in Orange County, California, was sold for housing.

The cost of land, equipment, labor — along with the instability of prices for essentials, such as diesel and fertilizer — makes it impossible to earn a living these days, he said.

“Us little farmers don’t have much of a chance,” said Kibby, who moved north with his wife this summer to help Tookey. “You work so hard not making money.”

Besides the cost of raw materials, there are many other factors squeezing farmers.

Most farmers take out short-term loans to cover costs between planting and harvest. Interest rates are higher as central banks raise rates to tamp down inflation, pushing up borrowing costs.

Various US trade wars, particularly with China, have cut off critical markets for products like soybeans. That’s driving down prices in the short term, and farmers worry that market share will be lost in the long term.

“Our farm and the vast majority of the farms (I know) are anticipating they’re going to be losing money this year, and the vast majority lost money last year,” said Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union and a fifth-generation farmer.

Patrick T. Fallon/AFP/Getty Images

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“Farming does have ups and downs naturally, but when it happens year after year after year, eventually you’re no longer a good credit risk, and you can’t borrow money to keep farming,” added Lehman, who grows corn, soybeans, oats and hay.

Courtesy Aaron Lehman

The number of farm bankruptcies rose 20% in the 12 months ending in June compared to a year ago, according to federal bankruptcy filing data. But the worst is yet to come, said Tom Ajamie, an attorney active in the farming sector.

“A lot of these farmers are on the edge,” he said. “So yeah, It’s a 20% increase right now, but what happens in the next two, four, five months? A lot of farmers are just barely clinging on right now. You will see that number increase, I guarantee it.”

Some congressional members from farm states, like Republican Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, have pressed the Trump administration to ban US diesel exports as a way to get immediate relief. But many energy experts doubt that will lower diesel prices.

The American Farm Bureau Federation and other agriculture groups seek the passage of a new farm bill, which has cleared the House. The proposed legislation includes help for farmers, like raising federal farm loan limits that haven’t changed since 2018.

“You get into the lame duck session, and I think we can find a bipartisan path forward on a lot of things,” said John Newton, vice president of public policy and economic analysis for the American Farm Bureau Federation, referring to the period after midterms and before the new Congress begins.

Even if a bill eventually passes, even if diesel comes down later this year, that won’t help the farmers harvesting crops right now.

Many told CNN that they feel like victims of things set in motion around the globe over which they have no control.

“Farmers are used to dealing with unpredictability with weather, you know, soil conditions, livestock,” Lehman said. “Policy decisions that have put farmers at the right in the front of economic damage - that’s what’s very frustrating.”

约翰·耶利在过去的 26 年里一直在他的农场工作，他的家族自 1852 年以来就拥有这座农场。

耶利是伊利诺伊州农场的第七代传人，他的农场紧邻印第安纳州州界。虽然他计划继续经营下去，但他不确定是否希望16岁的儿子和12岁的女儿接手，因为目前的经济形势非常严峻。

“就目前的情况来看，不，我不会希望他们经历这些，”他谈到农业时说道。

像叶利这样的农民以及农业专家都认为，农业正处于痛苦的衰退之中。农场面临着创纪录的柴油价格，而柴油是他们农机设备必不可少的燃料。贸易争端切断了他们进入重要市场的渠道。乌克兰和中东的战争导致化肥价格飙升，与此同时，农民们为了从播种到收获所需的贷款，还不得不支付更高的利息。

即使玉米和大豆的价格上涨，耶利也不确定本季能否盈利。

“我们县不大，但今年已经有三位农民破产了，”耶利说。“我知道大家都在想这个问题，继续下去真的值得吗？压力真的很大。”

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

柴油价格首次超过每加仑6美元。这会对你产生什么影响？

目前，柴油价格是农民面临的最紧迫问题。

柴油是农用机械（如拖拉机和联合收割机）的主要燃料。全国柴油平均价格上涨速度超过了汽油价格，目前已接近近期历史高点6.53美元。在中西部农业带的许多州，柴油价格甚至更高：例如，截至周五，伊利诺伊州的平均价格为每加仑6.82美元。

黛安·德索博/法新社/盖蒂图片社

农民通常每年购买数千加仑的汽油。耶利通常每年购买两次，每次8500加仑，用于农机作业。

“这是我成年以来第一次因为燃油成本问题，春季或秋季都没有一次性购买一整车燃油。我们只能零零散散地买……每次买1000或1500加仑，希望油价能下降，”他说。“可惜，油价并没有下降。”

萨米·图基在加州北部葡萄酒产区的10英亩土地上种植各种各样的农产品——西红柿、玉米、甜瓜、辣椒、南瓜、生菜和辣椒。他将大约一半的收成卖给一家食品合作社，另一半则每周在三个农贸市场出售。

柴油、纸箱和化肥价格上涨给他带来了压力——这些商品的价格在过去一年中也以两位数的速度上涨。

俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争首先切断了部分化肥生产所需原材料的供应，推高了价格。今年，中东战争导致化肥出口中断，情况更加恶化。据专家和农民称，化肥价格在过去一年上涨了高达50%。

乔治·基比/萨米·图基

图基提高了价格，但涨幅不足以弥补不断上涨的成本。他说他不想吓跑顾客。

乔·雷德尔/盖蒂图片社

特朗普打算用“大刀阔斧”的方式大幅削减柴油价格。但这可能会对美国产生反噬作用。

他计划明年春天再次播种，但不确定自己还能当多久农民。图基将于十月下旬结婚，他担心如何养活孩子。

他说：“要同时拥有家庭和农场，似乎几乎是不可能的。”

图基的继父乔治·基比对当前农业状况的看法更为悲观。他在农业领域工作了40年后，于7月退休，因为他在加州奥兰治县租用的土地被卖掉了，用于建造住宅。

他说，土地、设备、劳动力成本高昂，再加上柴油、化肥等必需品价格不稳定，如今根本无法谋生。

“我们这些小农户没什么机会，”基比说道。今年夏天，他和妻子搬到北部来帮助图基。“辛辛苦苦干了这么多年，却赚不到什么钱。”

除了原材料成本之外，还有许多其他因素挤压着农民的生存空间。

大多数农民会借短期贷款来支付播种到收获之间的各项费用。由于各国央行为抑制通胀而提高利率，导致借贷成本上升，因此利率也随之走高。

美国发起的各种贸易战，尤其是与中国的贸易战，切断了大豆等产品的关键市场。这导致短期内价格下跌，农民们担心长期来看会失去市场份额。

“我们农场和（我认识的）绝大多数农场都预计今年会赔钱，而且去年绝大多数农场都赔了钱，”爱荷华州农民联盟主席、第五代农民亚伦·莱曼说道。

Patrick T. Fallon/法新社/盖蒂图片社

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“务农自然会有起起伏伏，但如果年复一年地发生这种情况，最终你就不再是良好的信用风险，也就无法借钱继续务农了，”种植玉米、大豆、燕麦和干草的莱曼补充道。

承蒙 Aaron Lehman 惠允

根据联邦破产申请数据显示，截至6月份的12个月内，农场破产数量比去年同期增长了20%。但活跃于农业领域的律师汤姆·阿贾米表示，最糟糕的情况尚未到来。

“很多农民都处在生死边缘，”他说。“没错，现在增长了20%，但接下来的两到四个月、五个月会怎样呢？很多农民现在都勉强维持生计。我敢保证，这个数字还会继续增长。”

一些来自农业州的国会议员，例如爱荷华州的共和党参议员查尔斯·格拉斯利，敦促特朗普政府禁止美国柴油出口，以此作为缓解经济困境的权宜之计。但许多能源专家对此表示怀疑，认为此举无法降低柴油价格。

美国农场局联合会和其他农业团体正寻求通过一项新的农业法案，该法案已在众议院获得通过。拟议的立法包括对农民的援助措施，例如提高自2018年以来一直未变的联邦农业贷款限额。

“进入跛脚鸭会期后，我认为我们可以在很多事情上找到两党合作的前进道路，”美国农场局联合会公共政策和经济分析副总裁约翰·牛顿说道，他指的是中期选举之后和新一届国会开始之前的这段时期。

即使法案最终获得通过，即使柴油价格在今年晚些时候下降，也无助于现在正在收割庄稼的农民。

许多人告诉 CNN，他们觉得自己是全球范围内发生的、他们无法控制的事情的受害者。

莱曼说：“农民们早已习惯应对天气、土壤状况和牲畜等方面的不可预测性。政策决定让农民首当其冲地承受经济损失——这才是最令人沮丧的地方。”