Inside the Trump campaign strategy to reverse Republicans’ dwindling hopes of winning the midterms

Eduardo Munoz/Reuters

The midterms mood among Donald Trump’s inner circle has soured as GOP candidates openly break with the president and his approval ratings hit an all-time low, prompting a largely unspoken but age-old question: How does an unpopular president best help his party keep control of Congress?

Trump advisers have privately acknowledged that there’s little expectation he can win over large numbers of independents and swing voters, which was part of his path to victory in critical states in 2024. And while they’re more concerned about losing control of the House, Republicans’ previous confidence that they can hold onto the Senate is dwindling by the day.

“It’s obviously going to be f***ing rough,” one Trump adviser told CNN, adding that they believe the best-case scenario is achieving what Democrats did in 2022, when under former President Joe Biden they narrowly lost control of the House but kept the Senate.

Still, Trump’s team is planning an aggressive campaign schedule for Trump and Vice President JD Vance in October in both battleground and deep-red states alike, multiple officials told CNN — as advisers believe their only hope at holding ground is increasing turnout, and the president can help with that.

“The system is built around what areas we need to goose turnout 2-3 points,” one operative told CNN.

In recent weeks, Trump’s senior advisers, including chief of staff Susie Wiles, put together a calendar that has Trump on the campaign trail for most days in October, though two administration officials said that not all stops had been confirmed. He is planning trips to Alabama and Oklahoma next week, but a GOP official said those were “outliers” in the travel strategy, which would focus more on battleground districts.

“He’ll be playing hard in Florida, Texas, Michigan and Ohio — he’ll be on the road just about every day in October campaigning. We’re leaving it all on the table,” the official added. However, even in more purple states, the plan is for Trump to go to more conservative areas, according to another official.

Advisers also hope the Trump-Vance campaigning will help raise money as Republican groups — including Trump’s MAGA Inc. PAC — have begun hemorrhaging cash across the country. This week, the Senate Leadership Fund increased its spending in Texas to $100 million to support GOP Senate candidate Ken Paxton in a state they haven’t lost in decades, exposing the party’s fresh worries about the Senate.

And while one Republican operative said that the enormous sum was moving the needle in their direction “some,” it wasn’t clear it would be enough to reverse the strong political headwinds largely created by the president himself.

Asked if there was anything Republicans could do to change the tide, the operative replied: “Go back in time and never start the war with Iran.”

Republicans in both purple territories and even some red districts have broken from Trump on issues ranging from the Iran War to the economy to immigration. Republican Mike Rogers, the Michigan Senate candidate in one of the most closely watched races this cycle, lamented in a recent ad that “Groceries cost too much. We have to bring prices down.”

“The war with Iran needs to end and end quickly,” Rogers said. “When it does, energy costs will plummet, but Michigan families can’t afford to wait for that to happen.”

That sentiment was echoed by the GOP’s Senate candidates in Iowa and Ohio. Other Republican lawmakers have voted to limit Trump’s war powers. House lawmakers in Florida and Texas have also criticized the administration on immigration. Several others have removed Trump references from campaign websites.

The GOP official involved in strategy brushed off concerns about candidates distancing from the president, saying “they need to run the races they need to run, and we’re obviously encouraging them to do what they need to do.”

In a sign of how potentially polarizing the president and his MAGA brand are right now, much of the money being spent by Trump’s PAC is coming through two newly formed groups with far less politically aligned names: No Going Back PAC Inc. and Safety & Affordability PAC Inc.

However, Trump’s political team still believes that his ability to drive turnout is one of Republicans’ greatest assets come November. While some Republicans have quietly expressed concerns about candidates in sensitive races appearing alongside Trump, one official brushed off the notion.

“The cake is already baked. There’s no getting away from Trump for these guys. So we have to lean into it,” the official said. “The left is going to attack [Republican candidates] as being close to Trump no matter what, so why not get the benefit out of it, which is max turnout.”

Multiple sources working on midterm strategy told CNN that Trump’s political operation was working off that central belief — that they could still win with enough turnout. In order to minimize the percent of “persuadable” voters that are needed, their thinking goes, it’s critical to get as many base voters to the polls as possible.

“It’s all a turnout game,” a GOP campaign official said. “From day one, the campaign committees and the president’s political operation have been sharing data to make sure we’re hammering the exact people we need to turn out.”

Sources noted that while this was not the traditional way to look at a midterm when a president’s approval ratings are so low, Trump has always been a different political animal who defies typical expectations.

But his advisers also privately acknowledge a major problem with that strategy: Trump isn’t just an incredible driver of enthusiasm for his own supporters; he’s also a strong driver of Democratic turnout.

“The issue with putting his name on the ballot is it could ultimately serve as a bigger driving force for Democratic voters who hate him,” the campaign official said.

White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said in a statement that Trump has “built one of the most robust coalitions in political history” and “the President understands how to communicate with them.”

“President Trump is the unequivocal leader, best messenger, and unmatched motivator for the Republican Party, and he is committed to maintaining Republican majorities in Congress,” Ingle added.

The White House and the president’s political apparatus view Vance as a crucial surrogate, and one that tends to stay far more on message compared to the president. But the campaign doesn’t exactly view him as an ace card to deploy in truly competitive territories — he’s still viewed as an extension of Trump. Both men are seen as potentially doing more damage than good in certain swing districts, sources familiar with the discussions tell CNN.

The decision of where and when to send both men is driven directly by the massive data operation that the president’s political team has amassed, one that was fortified during Trump’s 2024 campaign and is now also being used by the Republican National Committee and the GOP’s House and Senate campaign arms. James Blair, who left the White House to take charge of the political operation ahead of the midterms, has been weighing in on the calendars.

Vance, who has met directly with GOP lawmakers and candidates on the ballot in November to help them workshop messaging, has also been tasked with raising so-called “hard money” for the Republican National Committee.

“JD’s primary responsibility has been fundraising,” one source told CNN, nodding to Vance’s role as the RNC’s finance chair. The source described that as an urgent necessity, particularly given the Supreme Court’s ruling earlier this month allowing political party committees, like the RNC, to get discounted television ad rates ahead of the midterm elections.

Vance isn’t the only surrogate the White House has deployed — senior staffers have also worked directly with Wiles to pick campaign stops and priorities for members of Trump’s Cabinet. In fact, Trump’s political team has tracked and ranked Cabinet officials’ campaign involvement, with higher points for traveling to swing districts and subtractions for overseas trips.

The rankings have been shared with officials in group settings in hopes it would incentivize more campaign involvement, according to multiple sources familiar with the matter. During a summer meeting at the Waldorf Astoria in Washington, Blair credited Small Business Administrator Kelly Loeffler as leading the pack, with Acting Secretary of Labor Keith Sonderling in second, sources present at the meeting said.

爱德华多·穆尼奥斯/路透社

随着共和党候选人公开与总统决裂，唐纳德·特朗普核心圈子的中期选举情绪恶化，他的支持率也跌至历史新低，这引发了一个鲜为人知但由来已久的问题：一位不受欢迎的总统如何才能最好地帮助他的政党保住对国会的控制权？

特朗普的顾问们私下承认，他们不指望他能赢得大量独立选民和摇摆选民的支持，而这曾是他2024年在关键州获胜的关键因素之一。虽然共和党人更担心失去对众议院的控制权，但他们此前对保住参议院控制权的信心也日益减弱。

一位特朗普顾问告诉 CNN：“这显然会非常艰难。”他还补充说，他们认为最好的情况是像民主党在 2022 年那样，当时在前总统乔·拜登的领导下，他们以微弱劣势失去了对众议院的控制权，但保住了参议院。

不过，据多位官员向 CNN 透露，特朗普团队正计划在 10 月份为特朗普和副总统 JD Vance 在摇摆州和深红州开展积极的竞选活动——顾问们认为，他们保住阵地的唯一希望是提高投票率，而总统可以为此提供帮助。

一位工作人员告诉 CNN：“这套系统是围绕着我们需要将投票率提高 2-3 个百分点来构建的。”

最近几周，包括幕僚长苏西·威尔斯在内的特朗普高级顾问制定了一份日程表，计划让特朗普在10月份的大部分时间里都在竞选活动中奔波。不过，两位政府官员表示，并非所有行程都已最终确定。他计划下周前往阿拉巴马州和俄克拉荷马州，但一位共和党官员表示，这些行程在整体竞选策略中属于“例外”，该策略的重点将放在摇摆州选区。

“他将在佛罗里达州、德克萨斯州、密歇根州和俄亥俄州全力以赴——10月份他几乎每天都会奔波于竞选活动之间。我们已做好万全准备，”这位官员补充道。然而，另一位官员表示，即使在摇摆州，特朗普的计划也是前往更为保守的地区。

顾问们还希望特朗普和万斯的竞选活动能够帮助筹集资金，因为包括特朗普的“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）政治行动委员会在内的共和党团体，在全国各地都开始出现资金短缺。本周，参议院领导基金将德克萨斯州的支出增加到1亿美元，以支持共和党参议员候选人肯·帕克斯顿。共和党在该州已经几十年没有失利了，这暴露了该党对参议院席位的新担忧。

虽然一位共和党人士表示，这笔巨款在一定程度上推动了局势向他们倾斜，但尚不清楚这是否足以扭转总统本人造成的强大政治逆风。

当被问及共和党人是否可以采取任何措施来扭转局势时，这位人士回答说：“回到过去，永远不要发动与伊朗的战争。”

在一些摇摆州甚至一些传统共和党选区，共和党人已经与特朗普在从伊朗战争到经济再到移民等一系列问题上决裂。共和党人迈克·罗杰斯是密歇根州参议员候选人，这场选举是本轮选举中最受关注的选战之一。他在最近的一则广告中抱怨道：“食品杂货太贵了。我们必须降低物价。”

罗杰斯说：“与伊朗的战争必须结束，而且要尽快结束。战争结束后，能源成本将会大幅下降，但密歇根州的家庭等不起这一天。”

爱荷华州和俄亥俄州的共和党参议员候选人也表达了类似的观点。其他一些共和党议员投票限制了特朗普的战争权力。佛罗里达州和德克萨斯州的众议员也批评了特朗普政府的移民政策。还有一些议员删除了竞选网站上所有与特朗普相关的内容。

参与战略制定的共和党官员对候选人与总统保持距离的担忧不以为然，他说：“他们需要参加他们需要参加的竞选，我们显然鼓励他们做他们需要做的事情。”

从总统及其“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA）品牌目前可能造成的两极分化程度来看，特朗普的政治行动委员会（PAC）花费的大部分资金都来自两个新成立的团体，这两个团体的名称与政治立场的关联性要弱得多：分别是“不回头政治行动委员会”（No Going Back PAC Inc.）和“安全与负担能力政治行动委员会”（Safety & Affordability PAC Inc.）。

然而，特朗普的政治团队仍然认为，他提升选民投票率的能力是共和党在11月大选中最大的优势之一。尽管一些共和党人私下里对一些敏感选区的候选人与特朗普一同露面表示担忧，但一位官员对此不以为然。

“蛋糕已经烤好了。这些人根本躲不开特朗普。所以我们只能顺势而为，”这位官员说。“无论如何，左派都会攻击（共和党候选人）与特朗普关系密切，所以为什么不利用这一点，争取最大投票率呢？”

多位参与中期选举策略的消息人士告诉CNN，特朗普的政治团队秉持着一个核心信念——只要投票率足够高，他们仍然可以赢得大选。他们的想法是，为了尽可能减少所需的“可说服”选民比例，关键在于让尽可能多的基本盘选民参与投票。

一位共和党竞选官员表示：“一切都取决于投票率。从一开始，竞选委员会和总统的政治团队就一直在共享数据，以确保我们能够精准地动员我们需要争取投票的人群。”

消息人士指出，虽然在总统支持率如此之低的情况下，这不是看待中期选举的传统方式，但特朗普一直是一个与众不同的政治人物，他打破了人们的普遍预期。

但他的顾问们私下里也承认，这一策略存在一个重大问题：特朗普不仅能极大地激发自己支持者的热情，还能极大地提高民主党的投票率。

这位竞选官员表示：“把他的名字列入选票的问题在于，这最终可能会成为那些憎恨他的民主党选民更大的推动力。”

白宫发言人戴维斯·英格尔在一份声明中表示，特朗普“建立了政治史上最强大的联盟之一”，而且“总统懂得如何与他们沟通”。

“特朗普总统是共和党无可争议的领袖、最佳代言人和无与伦比的激励者，他致力于维持共和党在国会的多数席位，”英格尔补充道。

白宫和总统的政治团队将万斯视为一位至关重要的代理人，而且与总统相比，他往往更能坚持既定的竞选策略。但竞选团队并不认为他是真正竞争激烈的选区中的王牌——他仍然被视为特朗普的延伸。知情人士告诉CNN，在某些摇摆选区，这两位候选人都被认为可能弊大于利。

决定何时何地派遣这两位人物，直接取决于总统政治团队积累的庞大数据体系。这一体系在特朗普2024年竞选期间得到强化，如今也被共和党全国委员会以及共和党众议院和参议院竞选机构所利用。詹姆斯·布莱尔在中期选举前离开白宫，负责政治运作，他也参与了日程安排的制定。

范斯曾直接与共和党议员和 11 月份的候选人会面，帮助他们制定竞选宣传策略，他还负责为共和党全国委员会筹集所谓的“硬钱”。

一位消息人士告诉CNN，“JD的主要职责是筹款”，他指的是万斯担任共和党全国委员会（RNC）财务主席一职。该消息人士称，鉴于最高法院本月早些时候的裁决允许像RNC这样的政党委员会在中期选举前获得电视广告折扣，筹款工作显得尤为迫切。

万斯并非白宫派出的唯一代理人——高级幕僚也曾直接与威尔斯合作，为特朗普内阁成员挑选竞选行程和优先事项。事实上，特朗普的政治团队已经追踪并评估了内阁官员的竞选参与度，前往摇摆选区会获得高分，而海外访问则会被扣分。

据多位知情人士透露，这些排名已在官员们的集体会议上公布，希望以此激励更多人参与竞选活动。与会人士称，在华盛顿华尔道夫酒店举行的一次夏季会议上，布莱尔称赞小企业管理局局长凯莉·洛夫勒位居榜首，代理劳工部长基思·桑德林位列第二。