‘Winds of change’: How Milei is stirring Falklands claim amid Trump-UK spat

Analysts say Argentina’s president sees an opportunity to exploit Trump’s growing tensions with London.

US President Donald Trump shakes hands with Argentina President Javier Milei during a signing ceremony for the “Board of Peace” at the World Economic Forum on January 22, 2026 in Davos, Switzerland [Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images]

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is capitalising on his country’s long-running claim to the Falkland Islands by coupling threats of sanctions over a major offshore oil project with lavish praise for Donald Trump , after the US president publicly questioned Washington’s position over the disputed UK territory.

Milei’s remarks come as relations between Trump and the UK government have deteriorated over the UK’s refusal to support US military action against Iran, and as the right-wing Milei increasingly positions Argentina as one of Washington’s closest ideological allies in Latin America.

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The UK has administered the Falkland Islands, which Argentina calls Las Malvinas, since 1833. However, as the islands lie off its shores, Argentina claims sovereignty over them.

The US has traditionally supported the UK’s claim to the territory. But analysts say Trump’s willingness to question established US policy, even if mainly intended as leverage against London, could provide Milei with an opportunity to unite Argentinians around one of the country’s few enduring national causes.

The question of Argentina’s claim to the islands was raised again this week when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s son, Yair, accused the UK of hypocrisy and wrote on X in Spanish: “The Falkland Islands belong to Argentina.”

Here’s what we know.

What is the dispute over the Falkland Islands?

The Falklands are a self-governing British overseas territory in the South Atlantic, almost 13,000km (8,000 miles) from the UK.

Argentina says it inherited sovereignty over the islands from Spain in the 19th century. But Britain has administered the Falklands since 1833 and points both to that long presence and to the wishes of the islanders living there to justify its control. In a 2013 referendum, 1,513 of 1,517 voters backed remaining a British overseas territory.

The dispute erupted into war in 1982 when Argentina seized the islands.

The UK, under then-Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, sent a military force to retake the territory, with 74 days of fighting left 649 Argentine and 255 British service members dead.

What has Milei said now?

In a nationally televised speech on Thursday, Milei seized on Trump’s suggestion that Washington might reconsider its position on the islands, and heralded the “winds of change” he said were blowing in favour of Argentina’s claim to the Falkland Islands.

“The United States is considering this change in position because it knows that Argentina has a reliable partner, aligned with Western values, in a strategically important position that can be a valuable ally in the decades to come,” Milei said.

He also announced measures aimed at obstructing development of the Sea Lion oil project, about 220km (140 miles) north of the islands. The Sea Lion field sits in waters administered by the Falklands, and Argentina considers the project an illegal exploitation of resources in waters it claims as its own.

Rockhopper Exploration, a UK-based oil and gas exploration and production company with interests in the Falkland Islands, and Israel’s Navitas Petroleum are set to begin drilling in the coming months, with oil production expected to begin in 2028.

Milei also threatened tougher sanctions against companies involved in the project and announced new funding for a naval base in Tierra del Fuego, Argentina’s southernmost province, to strengthen the country’s military presence near the islands.

“Argentina will not stand idly by,” he said. “Any further advance on the Malvinas Islands will be considered a violation of our national security.”

“We can argue about my style. We can disagree over fiscal or exchange-rate policy,” Milei added. “But there are causes that rise above any political difference. The Malvinas is one of them.”

Why have Trump’s comments caused concern in Britain?

Trump has stopped short of outright endorsing Argentina’s claim to the islands, but he has repeatedly raised the possibility that Washington’s position on the islands could change.

In an interview with the right-wing GB News in the UK this week, Trump appeared to suggest he might not come to the UK’s aid if a conflict erupts with Argentina over the Falkland Islands.

He said the UK “was not there to help me” with the war with Iran.

“We didn’t need help, but I did ask NATO, and I asked your former leader, ‘Why didn’t you send a couple of ships?'”

Asked separately by the BBC if the longstanding US position on the UK’s claim to the Falklands was under review, Trump said: “I always review every position. That’s just one of many.”

Trump’s comments followed reports that US defence officials were considering using Washington’s position on the Falklands as leverage to pressure the UK to increase military spending, including the possibility of opposing UK sovereignty over the islands.

The idea has been around for some time. In April, a leaked Pentagon email proposed reviewing US support for the UK’s position on the Falklands as a way to pressure London over its refusal to support US military action against Iran.

Christoph Bluth, a professor at the University of Bradford in the UK, told Al Jazeera that the context is crucial.

“Trump has not endorsed Argentina’s sovereignty claim; he has merely said the US position is under review,” Bluth said.

He added that the idea appeared to have originated “inside the Pentagon as leverage against Britain over defence spending and its refusal to support US action against Iran, not from a reassessment of the Falklands dispute itself”.

How has the UK responded to all this?

The UK has reiterated its position. Defence Secretary Wes Streeting said the UK’s commitment to the islands was “unshakeable”, while a spokesperson for Prime Minister Andy Burnham said the islanders had a right to determine their own future and that the UK’s commitment was “unwavering”.

Matthew Benwell, a specialist on the Falklands and geopolitics, told Al Jazeera that Trump’s comments would cause unease in both London and Stanley, the Falklands capital, but cautioned against viewing them as a policy change.

“At this stage, these are just remarks from President Trump,” he said. Whether they lead to a change in the US sovereignty position or an explicit call for negotiations “remains to be seen”, he said, adding that such a shift looked unlikely for now.

How can Milei make this situation work in his favour?

Washington has historically recognised the UK’s de facto administration of the islands without formally taking a position on sovereignty.

That neutrality has mattered to London. Klaus Dodds, a professor at Royal Holloway, University of London, told Al Jazeera that the UK has traditionally been able to rely on having a closer relationship with Washington than Argentina does.

“Now that has changed,” he said. With Trump still in office and closely aligned with Milei, Dodds said the Argentinian president is likely to view the moment as an opportunity “to take advantage whenever and wherever he can”.

Milei has appeared repeatedly at pro-Trump events in the US, attended his second inauguration and been called Trump’s “favourite president”.

Last year, Trump authorised a $20bn financial lifeline package for Argentina, tying support to Milei’s party succeeding in legislative elections. After his La Libertad Avanza party won, Trump authorised additional imports of Argentinian beef to the US.

Eleonora Natale, an analyst focusing on Latin American politics, said any US openness towards Argentina on the Falklands had to be seen within that wider relationship.

“Milei has become one of Trump’s closest ideological allies in Latin America,” she told Al Jazeera, pointing to shared positions on security, migration and scepticism towards multilateral institutions.

Tilmann Altenberg, a reader in Hispanic Studies at Cardiff University, also cautioned against interpreting Trump’s remarks as a settled shift over sovereignty.

His comments, Altenberg said, were “first and foremost a reflection on the relationship between the US and the UK, rather than a deliberate shift in US policy” towards the islands.

But he said Milei may nevertheless see the current alignment as “a window of opportunity” to advance Argentina’s position and strengthen his hand ahead of the 2027 election.

Could US support actually affect the dispute?

Analysts said a genuine change in Washington’s position would be significant, but its practical effects would be limited.

Dodds said abandoning neutrality would mark a break with a “fundamental tenet of US policy post-1982” and could be read as Trump rewarding Milei while punishing the UK for refusing to support US operations against Iran.

Bluth said US backing could give Argentina greater international leverage and make companies more cautious about investing in oil projects around the Falklands.

But, he added, it “would not be a material change or oblige Britain to negotiate sovereignty”.

Buenos Aires cannot physically prevent production at the Sea Lion oil field, Bluth added, but it can use sanctions and legal pressure against companies involved in developing it.

Trump’s remarks may also have symbolic value in Argentina even before any formal US decision, Altenberg added. In Buenos Aires they “might be perceived as a sign that the sovereignty question could be tabled before the international community again soon”, he said.

分析人士称，阿根廷总统看到了利用特朗普与伦敦之间日益紧张的关系的机会。

2026年1月22日，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普在瑞士达沃斯世界经济论坛“和平委员会”签署仪式上与阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱握手。[Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images]

阿根廷总统哈维尔·米莱利用该国长期以来对福克兰群岛的主权声索，一方面威胁要对一个大型海上石油项目实施制裁，另一方面又对美国总统唐纳德·特朗普大加赞扬。此前，特朗普公开质疑华盛顿在这一有争议的英国领土上的立场。

米莱发表这番言论之际，正值特朗普与英国政府的关系因英国拒绝支持美国对伊朗采取军事行动而恶化，同时，右翼的米莱也日益将阿根廷定位为华盛顿在拉丁美洲最亲密的意识形态盟友之一。

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自 1833 年以来，英国一直管理着福克兰群岛（阿根廷称之为马尔维纳斯群岛）。然而，由于这些岛屿位于阿根廷海岸附近，阿根廷声称对其拥有主权。

美国历来支持英国对该地区的主权声索。但分析人士指出，特朗普质疑美国既定政策的意愿，即便其主要目的是为了向伦敦施压，也可能为米莱伊提供一个契机，让他能够团结阿根廷民众，共同致力于该国为数不多的几个持久的民族事业之一。

本周，以色列总理本杰明·内塔尼亚胡的儿子亚伊尔指责英国虚伪，并在X网站上用西班牙语写道：“福克兰群岛属于阿根廷”，这再次引发了阿根廷对这些岛屿的主权声索问题。

以下是我们目前所了解的情况。

福克兰群岛争端究竟是什么？

福克兰群岛是位于南大西洋的英国海外自治领土，距离英国本土近 13,000 公里（8,000 英里）。

阿根廷声称其在19世纪从西班牙继承了对这些岛屿的主权。但英国自1833年以来一直管理着福克兰群岛，并援引其长期存在以及岛民的意愿来证明其控制的合理性。在2013年的全民公投中，1517名选民中有1513人支持福克兰群岛继续作为英国海外领土。

1982年，阿根廷占领了这些岛屿，争端演变为战争。

在时任首相玛格丽特·撒切尔的领导下，英国派遣军队夺回了该地区，经过 74 天的战斗，造成 649 名阿根廷军人和 255 名英国军人死亡。

Milei 又说了什么？

周四，米莱在全国电视讲话中抓住特朗普暗示华盛顿可能会重新考虑其在福克兰群岛问题上的立场，并宣称“变革之风”正吹向有利于阿根廷对福克兰群岛主张的方向。

“美国正在考虑改变立场，因为它知道阿根廷拥有一个可靠的伙伴，该伙伴与西方价值观一致，并且处于重要的战略位置，在未来几十年里可以成为一个宝贵的盟友，”米莱说。

他还宣布了旨在阻挠“海狮”石油项目开发的措施，该项目位于福克兰群岛以北约220公里（140英里）处。“海狮”油田位于福克兰群岛管辖水域，阿根廷认为该项目是对其声称拥有主权的水域进行非法资源开采。

总部位于英国的石油和天然气勘探生产公司 Rockhopper Exploration（在福克兰群岛拥有权益）和以色列的 Navitas Petroleum 计划在未来几个月开始钻探，预计将于 2028 年开始石油生产。

米莱还威胁要对参与该项目的公司实施更严厉的制裁，并宣布为阿根廷最南端的火地岛省的一个海军基地提供新的资金，以加强该国在岛屿附近的军事存在。

他说：“阿根廷绝不会袖手旁观。任何对马尔维纳斯群岛的进一步进攻都将被视为对我国国家安全的侵犯。”

“我们可以争论我的风格，也可以在财政政策或汇率政策上持有不同意见，”米莱补充道，“但有些事业超越了任何政治分歧，马尔维纳斯群岛就是其中之一。”

特朗普的言论为何在英国引起担忧？

特朗普虽然没有直接支持阿根廷对这些岛屿的主权声索，但他一再表示，华盛顿在这些岛屿上的立场可能会改变。

本周，特朗普在接受英国右翼媒体GB News采访时似乎暗示，如果英国与阿根廷因福克兰群岛爆发冲突，他可能不会援助英国。

他说，在与伊朗的战争中，英国“没有帮助我”。

“我们并不需要帮助，但我确实向北约提出了请求，也问了你们的前领导人：‘为什么你们不派几艘船来？’”

当被BBC单独问及美国是否正在重新审视其长期以来对英国福克兰群岛主权声索的立场时，特朗普表示：“我总是会重新审视每一个立场。这只是众多立场之一。”

此前有报道称，美国国防官员正在考虑利用华盛顿在福克兰群岛问题上的立场作为筹码，向英国施压，要求其增加军费开支，甚至可能反对英国对这些岛屿的主权。特朗普发表上述言论正是基于这些报道。

这个想法由来已久。今年4月，一份泄露的五角大楼邮件提议重新审视美国对英国在福克兰群岛问题上的立场支持，以此向伦敦施压，迫使其停止支持美国对伊朗采取军事行动。

英国布拉德福德大学教授克里斯托夫·布鲁斯告诉半岛电视台，背景至关重要。

布鲁斯说：“特朗普并没有支持阿根廷的主权声索；他只是表示美国的立场正在重新审视。”

他还补充说，这个想法似乎源于“五角大楼内部，目的是在国防开支和英国拒绝支持美国对伊朗采取行动方面对英国施加压力，而不是对福克兰群岛争端本身进行重新评估”。

英国对此作何反应？

英国重申了其立场。国防大臣韦斯·斯特里廷表示，英国对这些岛屿的承诺“坚定不移”，而首相安迪·伯纳姆的发言人则表示，岛民有权决定自己的未来，英国的承诺“毫不动摇”。

福克兰群岛和地缘政治专家马修·本韦尔告诉半岛电视台，特朗普的言论会在伦敦和福克兰群岛首府斯坦利引起不安，但他告诫不要将其视为政策变化。

“目前，这些仅仅是特朗普总统的言论，”他说。至于这些言论是否会导致美国主权立场的改变，或者是否会明确呼吁谈判，“还有待观察”，他补充道，并表示目前来看，这种转变的可能性不大。

米莱该如何化险为夷，让局势对他有利？

华盛顿历来承认英国对这些岛屿的实际管辖权，但并未正式就主权问题表明立场。

这种中立立场对伦敦至关重要。伦敦大学皇家霍洛威学院教授克劳斯·多兹告诉半岛电视台，英国历来能够依靠与华盛顿比阿根廷更紧密的关系来维持自身地位。

“现在情况不同了，”他说。多兹表示，由于特朗普仍在任，且与米莱关系密切，这位阿根廷总统很可能会把此时此刻视为“随时随地利用”的机会。

米莱曾多次出现在美国支持特朗普的活动中，出席了他的第二次就职典礼，并被誉为特朗普“最喜欢的总统”。

去年，特朗普批准了一项200亿美元的阿根廷援助计划，并将此与米莱伊领导的政党在立法选举中获胜挂钩。米莱伊的“自由前进党”获胜后，特朗普又批准了向美国进口更多阿根廷牛肉。

专注于拉丁美洲政治的分析师埃莱奥诺拉·纳塔莱表示，美国在福克兰群岛问题上对阿根廷的任何开放态度都必须放在更广泛的美阿关系中来看待。

“米莱已成为特朗普在拉丁美洲最亲密的意识形态盟友之一，”她告诉半岛电视台，并指出两人在安全、移民和对多边机构的怀疑态度上有着共同的立场。

卡迪夫大学西班牙裔研究讲师蒂尔曼·阿尔滕贝格也告诫人们不要将特朗普的言论解读为主权问题上的既定立场转变。

阿尔滕贝格表示，他的言论“首先反映的是美英关系，而不是美国对这些岛屿政策的有意转变”。

但他表示，米莱伊或许仍会将目前的形势视为提升阿根廷地位、增强自身实力以备战 2027 年大选的“机会之窗”。

美国的支持真的能对争端产生影响吗？

分析人士表示，华盛顿立场的真正转变固然意义重大，但其实际效果将十分有限。

多兹表示，放弃中立将标志着与“1982 年后美国政策的基本原则”决裂，这可以被解读为特朗普奖励米莱，同时惩罚英国拒绝支持美国对伊朗的行动。

布鲁斯表示，美国的支持可能会让阿根廷拥有更大的国际影响力，并使企业在投资福克兰群岛周边的石油项目时更加谨慎。

但他补充说，这“不会带来实质性的改变，也不会迫使英国就主权问题进行谈判”。

布鲁斯补充说，布宜诺斯艾利斯无法在物理上阻止海狮油田的生产，但可以对参与开发该油田的公司施加制裁和法律压力。

阿尔滕贝格补充说，即便在美国做出任何正式决定之前，特朗普的言论在阿根廷也可能具有象征意义。他说，在布宜诺斯艾利斯，这些言论“可能被视为一个信号，表明主权问题可能很快会再次提交国际社会讨论”。