The Texas money pit: Republicans are spending big trying to save Ken Paxton’s Senate bid

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Could running ads during “Judge Judy” salvage Ken Paxton’s embattled Senate bid in Texas?

A new CNN analysis of TV advertising shows that a single commercial promoting Paxton aired 258 times during the hit courtroom program in September alone – a snapshot of the monumental effort to defeat James Talarico, Paxton’s Democratic rival.

From the start of September through Election Day, Republican-aligned groups are planning to spend $166 million to boost the embattled Texas attorney general – more than they’re set to spend than on competitive Senate campaigns in Michigan, $83 million, and Maine, $61 million, combined.

The Senate contest in Texas has become a Republican money pit, particularly after a collection of GOP groups spent tens of millions of dollars trying to take Paxton down in the primary. All told, the total GOP-aligned bill in the Lone Star State is expected to exceed $300 million.

The massive fall outlay exceeds what Republican allies currently plan to spend in every other Senate battleground except Ohio, where GOP Sen. Jon Husted is trying to stop the comeback bid of former Sen. Sherrod Brown, CNN’s analysis shows.

John Oliva/Caller-Times/USA Today Network/Imagn Images.

The Texas ad spending is striking enough on its own, in a state that Republicans have dominated for decades but which Democrats have increasingly sought to make competitive. But it also comes when the Republican Party is confronting historic midterm headwinds and led by a president with an approval rating deeply underwater – at 33% in a new CNN poll this month.

That’s stretching Republicans thin across a competitive map, giving Democrats an opening in some key battlegrounds. And it’s led to new second-guessing about Republicans nominating Paxton over incumbent Sen. John Cornyn.

Rep. Michael McCaul, a Texas Republican who supported Cornyn in the primary, called the spending necessary.

“I think we are looking at the numbers going down. The top of the ticket is not helpful for down-ballot candidates,” McCaul told CNN. “Now we have a nominee that could – potentially – we could lose the seat over. So I think there is a bit of a dire warning now coming out of the state that we need help to keep that seat Republican.”

The lion’s share of the outside spending by the GOP has come from Texas PAC, a group affiliated with the Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican super PAC in Senate races.

The veteran Republican strategist Karl Rove responded bluntly Saturday when asked if the Texas splurge was a good use of the SLF’s war chest.

“No, but they’re going to have to do it, and that’s just the start,” said Rove, speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin. “That’s enough through the end of September. If John Cornyn were the nominee, this race would be over.”

The executive director of the Senate Leadership Fund, Alex Latcham, told CNN in a statement that its investment in Texas “affirms our commitment to maintaining the Republican majority and defeating Far-Left liberals like James Talarico.” An official with the group said its Texas spending is a “dedicated” effort that is not taking away from investments in other states.

Paxton’s campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Republicans are mounting a brute force effort to flatten Texas Democrats: For the final two months of the race, Republican-aligned groups are currently set to outspend Democratic counterparts by more than 5-to-1, $166 million to $32 million.

Watch a college football game and the Republican spending advantage comes alive. The top ad for Paxton played 413 times during college games in September, the CNN analysis shows, surpassing “Judge Judy” as the most coveted place for political advertising.

The pro-Paxton group Texas PAC spent over $2 million on more than 1,300 advertising spots during college football broadcasts in September. The group also spent about $600,000 on more than 750 “Judge Judy” airings.

The morning news programs on ABC, CBS and NBC are the next most sought-after programs, with “Jeopardy” and “Family Feud” following close behind.

Paxton and his allies have pummeled Talarico, criticizing his policy positions and mocking his progressive comments.

An ad from the pro-Trump super PAC MAGA Inc. argues that “when it comes to taxes, Ken Paxton’s the better choice.” An ad from Texas PAC repurposes a slogan from the 2024 Trump campaign, hitting Talarico over transgender policies and arguing that he’s for “for they/them, not you.”

Republicans have also put millions behind ads aimed at burnishing the reputation of an attorney general with a long history of controversies. That baggage – including an unsuccessful 2023 impeachment led by fellow Texas Republicans over corruption allegations – was highlighted by GOP groups trying to stop Paxton during the primary.

One such spot touts Paxton’s anti-trafficking efforts as the state’s top law enforcement official: “Prosecutor, dad, attorney general,” the ad declares.

Democrats are quick to note that Texas PAC, as a super PAC, is paying a higher rate for ads than the Talarico campaign is. But even then, they acknowledge the spending is staggering.

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“We’ve never seen anything like it” in Texas, said one Democratic operative working to elect Talarico.

Ad spending has already far cleared the previous high-water mark, $55 million in 2018, for the contest between Republican Sen. Ted Cruz and his Democratic opponent, former Rep. Beto O’Rourke, according to AdImpact.

Five weeks before the election, Paxton and Talarico remain neck-and-neck in public polls. And two Democratic operatives working to elect Talarico said their internal polling has not changed significantly since the huge wave of Republican spending started.

One of those operatives noted Texas PAC is paying an “absolutely punishing premium” on ads compared to the Talarico campaign – sometimes as much as five times more – due to the higher rate for super PACs.

For example, AdImpact data shows that Texas PAC outspent Talarico’s campaign by nearly 4-to-1 over the last week on local broadcast TV in the Dallas-Fort Worth media market. But it amounted to less than double the gross ratings points, a measurement of audience impact.

Talarico has responded to the ramped-up GOP spending with an ad where he says “billionaires are spending millions attacking me” due to his opposition to corporate PAC money, congressional stock trading and gerrymandering. The ad has gotten more than $4 million worth of airtime so far this month. In another , Talarico walks through his background and says that “my faith teaches me to serve my neighbors – that’s exactly what I’ll do in the United States Senate.”

Top ads from Talarico’s campaign in the month of September frequently aired during morning news shows.

The “Judge Judy” messages haven’t gone unanswered either. A spot calling Paxton “the most corrupt politician in Texas” aired 182 times in September during the courtroom show as counter-programming to Paxton’s ads.

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在《朱迪法官》节目播出期间投放广告能否挽救肯·帕克斯顿在德克萨斯州陷入困境的参议员竞选？

CNN 对电视广告的最新分析显示，仅在 9 月份，一则宣传帕克斯顿的广告就在热门法庭节目中播放了 258 次——这反映了为击败帕克斯顿的民主党对手詹姆斯·塔拉里科而付出的巨大努力。

从 9 月初到选举日，与共和党结盟的团体计划花费 1.66 亿美元来支持陷入困境的德克萨斯州总检察长——这比他们在密歇根州（8300 万美元）和缅因州（6100 万美元）竞争激烈的参议院竞选中计划花费的金额加起来还要多。

德克萨斯州的参议院竞选已沦为共和党的无底洞，尤其是在多个共和党团体花费数千万美元试图在初选中击败帕克斯顿之后。据悉，共和党在德克萨斯州的总支出预计将超过3亿美元。

CNN 的分析显示，此次大规模的秋季支出超过了共和党盟友目前计划在除俄亥俄州以外的所有其他参议院竞选州的支出，在俄亥俄州，共和党参议员乔恩·赫斯特正试图阻止前参议员谢罗德·布朗的复出竞选。

John Oliva/Caller-Times/今日美国网络/Imagn Images。

单就德克萨斯州的广告支出而言，就足以令人震惊。该州几十年来一直由共和党主导，但民主党却日益努力地想让它成为竞争激烈的战场。然而，与此同时，共和党正面临着中期选举历史上前所未有的逆风，而其领导人的支持率也远低于平均水平——根据本月CNN最新民调，他的支持率仅为33%。

这使得共和党在竞争激烈的选区中捉襟见肘，给民主党在一些关键摇摆州提供了机会。这也引发了人们对共和党提名帕克斯顿而非现任参议员约翰·科宁的质疑。

在初选中支持科宁的德克萨斯州共和党众议员迈克尔·麦考尔称这笔支出是必要的。

“我认为我们正在看到支持率下降。总统候选人的胜选对其他候选人没有帮助，”麦考尔告诉CNN。“现在我们有了一位可能——甚至有可能——让我们失去这个席位的候选人。所以我认为，现在来自该州的一个严峻警告是，我们需要帮助才能保住这个席位，让共和党继续执政。”

共和党对外支出的大部分来自德克萨斯州政治行动委员会 (Texas PAC)，该委员会隶属于参议院领导基金 (Senate Leadership Fund)，后者是参议院竞选中最大的共和党超级政治行动委员会。

资深共和党策略师卡尔·罗夫周六被问及德克萨斯州的这笔巨额支出是否合理利用了SLF的竞选资金时，直言不讳地作出了回应。

“不，但他们必须这么做，而这仅仅是个开始，”罗夫在奥斯汀举行的德克萨斯论坛报节上说道。“到九月底之前，这已经足够了。如果约翰·科宁是候选人，这场竞选就结束了。”

参议院领导基金执行主任亚历克斯·拉查姆在一份声明中告诉CNN，该基金在德克萨斯州的投资“彰显了我们维护共和党多数席位、击败像詹姆斯·塔拉里科这样的极左自由派人士的决心”。该基金的一位官员表示，其在德克萨斯州的支出是一项“专项”支出，不会影响在其他州的投资。

帕克斯顿竞选团队未回应置评请求。

共和党人正全力以赴，试图击败德克萨斯州的民主党人：在竞选的最后两个月里，共和党阵营的支出预计将比民主党阵营高出 5 倍以上，达到 1.66 亿美元，而民主党阵营的支出仅为 3200 万美元。

观看一场大学橄榄球赛，共和党的竞选资金优势便显露无疑。CNN的分析显示，帕克斯顿的头号竞选广告在9月份的大学橄榄球赛期间播放了413次，超过了“朱迪法官”节目，成为政治广告最炙手可热的投放平台。

支持帕克斯顿的团体“德克萨斯政治行动委员会”在9月份的大学橄榄球比赛转播期间，花费超过200万美元投放了1300多个广告位。该团体还花费约60万美元播放了750多期“朱迪法官”节目。

ABC、CBS 和 NBC 的早间新闻节目是接下来最受欢迎的节目，《危险边缘》和《家庭问答》紧随其后。

帕克斯顿和他的盟友猛烈抨击了塔拉里科，批评他的政策立场，并嘲笑他的进步言论。

支持特朗普的超级政治行动委员会“让美国再次伟大”（MAGA Inc.）发布的一则广告声称，“在税收问题上，肯·帕克斯顿是更好的选择。”德克萨斯州政治行动委员会的一则广告则借用了特朗普2024年竞选的口号，抨击塔拉里科在跨性别政策上的立场，并声称他“支持他们/她们，而不是你”。

共和党人还投入数百万美元用于广告宣传，旨在美化这位劣迹斑斑、争议不断的司法部长的声誉。这些劣迹——包括2023年由德克萨斯州共和党人发起的、以腐败指控为由的弹劾案最终失败——在共和党初选期间被一些团体大肆渲染，试图阻止帕克斯顿当选。

其中一则广告大力宣传帕克斯顿作为该州最高执法官员在打击人口贩运方面所做的努力：“检察官、父亲、司法部长，”广告宣称。

民主党人很快指出，作为超级政治行动委员会，德州政治行动委员会的广告费用高于塔拉里科竞选团队。但即便如此，他们也承认这笔支出令人震惊。

Brandon Bell/Getty Images

一位为塔拉里科竞选而奔走的民主党人士表示：“我们在德克萨斯州从未见过这样的事情。”

据 AdImpact 数据显示，共和党参议员特德·克鲁兹与民主党对手、前众议员贝托·奥鲁克之间的竞选广告支出已经远远超过了 2018 年的最高纪录 5500 万美元。

距离大选还有五周，帕克斯顿和塔拉里科在民调中仍然势均力敌。两名致力于帮助塔拉里科当选的民主党人士表示，自共和党开始大规模投入竞选资金以来，他们的内部民调结果并没有发生显著变化。

其中一位工作人员指出，由于超级政治行动委员会的费率较高，德克萨斯州政治行动委员会在广告上支付的“绝对高昂的溢价”比塔拉里科竞选活动高出许多——有时甚至高达五倍。

例如，AdImpact的数据显示，上周在达拉斯-沃斯堡媒体市场的本地电视广播广告上，德克萨斯政治行动委员会的支出几乎是塔拉里科竞选团队的四倍。但其带来的总收视率（衡量受众影响力的指标）却不到后者的两倍。

针对共和党不断加大竞选投入，塔拉里科发布了一则广告，称“亿万富翁们正花费数百万美元攻击我”，因为他反对企业政治行动委员会（PAC）的资金、国会股票交易以及选区划分不公。这则广告本月至今已获得超过400万美元的播出时间。在另一则广告中，塔拉里科回顾了自己的经历，并表示“我的信仰教导我要服务邻里——这正是我将在美国参议院所做的。”

Talarico 九月份的广告宣传活动中，一些热门广告经常在早间新闻节目中播出。

“朱迪法官”节目中的信息也并非无人回应。9月份，一则称帕克斯顿为“德克萨斯州最腐败的政客”的广告在法庭节目播出期间重复播放了182次，以此对抗帕克斯顿的竞选广告。