Post-Assad Syria is facing its biggest stress test yet. Here’s why that matters

In eastern Syria, a man complaining about soaring fuel prices turns to the crowd recording him on their phones and addresses the country’s transitional president.

“We stood with you, so stand with us,” he shouts. “I swear by God, if things don’t change between now and the new year, the situation will turn into something we won’t want. Enough!”

Security officers stand by as he openly denounces the government.

What happens next is striking: nothing.

Earlier this month, thousands of Syrians poured into the streets in the broadest protests since Bashar al-Assad’s fall nearly two years ago. Unlike under his family’s 54-year police state – where public defiance could mean prison, torture, disappearance or death – they were allowed to go home.

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The protests were widely broadcast on state media, in sharp contrast to Assad’s days, when state television peddled disinformation to discredit them, including claims that the protests were staged from faraway studios in Qatar.

Syria is now navigating the gap between newfound political freedom and an economic recovery that remains frustratingly distant for ordinary citizens, many of whom are losing patience.

The recent demonstrations were sparked by the government’s sudden decision to raise fuel prices by as much as 40%, which it blamed on the global energy crisis caused by the Iran war. As the outrage grew, the government walked back some increases and sent the energy minister before parliament in a show of accountability.

Analysts have praised the government’s responsiveness to its biggest economic stress test yet, but warned it will not change the fundamentals of the country’s cost-of-living crisis. The World Bank assesses that two-thirds of Syrians live below the lower middle-income poverty line, on less than $3.65 a day .

“We’re going to see these protests happening over and over again. It’s virtually impossible to overcome these severe economic challenges that Syrians are suffering. It will gradually become more challenging,” Ibrahim al-Assil, director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Syria in Transition Lab, told CNN.

That economic strain is causing a growing disconnect between Syrians’ expectations of their new government and their reality.

“The honeymoon period was always going to come to an end. People’s expectations were going to rise, and their patience was going to wear thin if those expectations weren’t met. That’s basically where we are,” said Charles Lister, director of the Syria Initiative at the Middle East Institute in Washington, DC.

Interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa is racing to rebuild Syria – an estimated $216 billion task – before patience runs out. He inherited a nearly bankrupt state that was plundered by Assad and his cronies, leaving the new regime largely reliant on foreign investment.

Louai Beshara/AFP/Getty Images

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His strategy has been to bring the country back onto the global stage after decades of isolation, and he is now trying to turn that international momentum into tangible economic gains.

“Syria has restored its status into the international community. It has been a transit for the world. We also built diplomatic bridges and we proved to the world that the security of the region has to start in Damascus,” al-Sharaa told the UN General Assembly on Wednesday.

The global embrace of al-Sharaa is perhaps best embodied by his warm rapport with US President Donald Trump , who he has met four times since last May. The outcome has been the complete lifting of all US sanctions on Syria, the key to unlocking foreign investment.

Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have driven most foreign investments thus far, estimated by Syria last year at $28 billion. The European Union has committed $2.7 billion in support, and French President Emmanuel Macron signed several new economic, transport and infrastructure agreements during a July visit to Damascus.

By one Syria expert’s count, the new government has met with representatives from about 100 countries since taking power. In a display of pragmatism, al-Sharaa even maintains ties with both Russian President Vladimir Putin , a top ally of the former regime, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The breadth of that engagement reflects Syria’s strategic position. At a time of international discord, supporting Syria’s future has become a rare point of consensus – and the reason largely lies in geography. Syria sits at the heart of the Middle East, connecting Asia and Europe through its Mediterranean ports.

It reflects the belief that, just as the Syrian civil war reverberated far beyond its borders – sparking a migration crisis and enabling the rise of ISIS – a stable and prosperous Syria could bolster regional stability, encourage refugee returns and curb extremism.

Amid the Iran war, al-Sharaa has leveraged Syria’s strategic location to pitch it as a modern Silk Road, a trade hub that serves as a land bridge alternative to the straits of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb.

A proof of concept is already under way as thousands of tanker trucks loaded with oil from southern Iraq cross through Syria to the Mediterranean port of Baniyas.

But for ordinary Syrians, the government’s ambitious plans have yet to show tangible results.

Lister says the international community sees a real opportunity in rebuilding Syria’s future, but it will take time.

“The reality is that most of these projects are 10-year strategic projects. They’re not going to reduce the price of bread, or immediately bring in more fuel or reduce the cost of fuel in Syria,” he said.

Lister says the end of American sanctions has brought in a flurry of new small and medium-sized investment projects that will put people to work more quickly.

“It’s those kinds of projects that offer a far greater chance of starting to put the seeds in the ground that lead to an amelioration of the challenges ordinary Syrians face,” he said. “But it’s not going to result in those things being fixed next week. It’s probably going to take another year or two.”

Karam Shaar, a Syrian political economist who runs an advisory firm, estimates that just 5% of the promised deals have made tangible progress. Among the most visible are the renovations of power infrastructure and the Damascus airport by UCC Holding, led by the influential Syrian-Qatari Al-Khayyat brothers.

“The economy is undoubtedly recovering. But that’s never the question for the average person. What matters to them is whether their livelihoods are improving,” he told CNN.

A Syrian protester, Bassam Al-Ali, complained to Reuters that the government was focused on big-dollar deals rather than cost-of-living improvements.

“We do not want roundabouts. Every day they build a new roundabout that costs a million thousand dollars and malls and I don’t know what. Let your people live,” he said, addressing al-Sharaa. “Your people were with you, are still with you now and will remain with you but this will let things explode.”

Al-Assil warned that as economic grievances build, the “revolutionary legitimacy” al-Sharaa’s government has accrued could fade away.

“Buying patience from people requires allowing them to participate, making them feel that their voices are heard.”

But even if the government can close the gap between international investment and everyday economic improvement, it faces another obstacle largely outside its control, one that al-Sharaa directly called out at the UN on Wednesday.

“The world is joyed about our return. But Israel is launching attacks against Syria,” he said. “This is at odds with the orientation we’re seeing at the global level.”

He estimated Israel has carried out nearly 500 strikes in Syria since he took power. Israel also occupies large parts of southern Syria and Israeli officials have said the military plans to stay there indefinitely.

Israel claims it does not trust al-Sharaa and needs a security buffer to prevent terrorism attacks on its soil. War-weary Syria maintains it does not want a conflict with its neighbor.

In the context of months of Israeli airstrikes on Syria, Fareed speaks with Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shaibani at the Council on Foreign Relations about whether peace with its neighbor is possible.

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The two sides have been in direct talks since August of last year.

Al-Sharaa said Tuesday at an Atlantic Council panel in New York that negotiations “reached 90% of agreements” until Israel withdrew for “different reasons.”

Lister says the instability brought on by Israel’s actions is a top concern among investors who ask him about opportunities in Syria.

“If the Israelis continue their current posture after their elections (in October), then more and more external investment into Syria is less likely – because they are waving this massive hammer over the head of Damascus,” he said.

“This particular issue is just as central to the questions around economic recovery as sanctions, as investment prospects, as small and medium-sized enterprises. Israel is just as important.”

在叙利亚东部，一名男子抱怨燃油价格飙升，他转向用手机拍摄他的人群，并向该国的过渡总统发表讲话。

“我们曾与你们站在一起，现在也请你们与我们站在一起！”他高声喊道。“我向上帝发誓，如果从现在到新年之间情况没有改变，局势将会变得我们不愿看到。够了！”

保安人员在他公开谴责政府时站在一旁。

接下来发生的事情令人震惊：什么也没发生。

本月初，数千名叙利亚人涌上街头，举行了自巴沙尔·阿萨德政权垮台近两年来规模最大的抗议活动。与阿萨德家族长达54年的警察国家统治时期不同——在那个时期，公开反抗可能意味着监禁、酷刑、失踪甚至死亡——他们被允许回家。

后阿萨德时代叙利亚的重建和复苏现状如何？

与阿萨德时期国家电视台散布虚假信息以抹黑抗议活动（包括声称抗议活动是在遥远的卡塔尔演播室策划的）形成鲜明对比的是，抗议活动在国家媒体上得到了广泛的报道。

叙利亚现在正努力应对新获得的政治自由与经济复苏之间的差距，而经济复苏对于普通民众来说仍然遥不可及，这令许多人感到沮丧，他们也正在失去耐心。

近期的示威活动是由政府突然决定将燃油价格上调高达40%引发的，政府将此归咎于伊朗战争造成的全球能源危机。随着公众愤怒情绪的不断高涨，政府撤回了部分涨价决定，并派能源部长到议会接受质询，以示问责。

分析人士赞扬了叙利亚政府对迄今为止规模最大的经济压力测试的积极应对，但警告称，这不会改变该国生活成本危机的根本原因。世界银行评估，三分之二的叙利亚人生活在中等偏下收入贫困线以下，日均收入不足3.65美元。

“我们将看到这些抗议活动一再发生。叙利亚人民正在遭受的这些严峻的经济挑战几乎不可能克服。而且情况会逐渐变得更加艰难，”哈佛大学肯尼迪学院叙利亚转型实验室主任易卜拉欣·阿西尔告诉CNN。

经济压力导致叙利亚民众对新政府的期望与现实之间日益脱节。

“蜜月期终究会结束。人们的期望会越来越高，如果这些期望得不到满足，他们的耐心就会逐渐耗尽。我们现在基本上就处于这种状态，”华盛顿特区中东研究所叙利亚倡议主任查尔斯·利斯特说道。

临时总统艾哈迈德·沙拉正争分夺秒地重建叙利亚——这项预计耗资2160亿美元的任务——以免失去耐心。他接手的是一个几乎破产的国家，这个国家曾被阿萨德及其亲信洗劫一空，使得新政权在很大程度上依赖外国投资。

Louai Beshara/法新社/盖蒂图片社

对叙利亚前独裁者巴沙尔·阿萨德的死刑判决，预示着该国的未来走向。

他的战略是让这个国家在经历了数十年的孤立之后重返国际舞台，现在他正试图将这种国际势头转化为切实的经济收益。

“叙利亚已经恢复了其在国际社会中的地位。它一直是世界的过境点。我们也搭建了外交桥梁，并向世界证明，该地区的安全必须从大马士革开始，”沙拉周三在联合国大会上表示。

沙拉在全球范围内广受欢迎，或许最能体现在他与美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的良好关系上。自去年五月以来，两人已四次会面。最终促成了美国全面解除对叙利亚的所有制裁，而这正是打开外国投资大门的关键。

迄今为止，土耳其、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国是吸引外资的主要来源，叙利亚去年估计外资总额达280亿美元。欧盟承诺提供27亿美元的援助，法国总统马克龙在7月访问大马士革期间签署了多项新的经济、交通和基础设施协议。

据一位叙利亚问题专家统计，新政府自掌权以来已会见了约100个国家的代表。务实的沙拉甚至与前政权的重要盟友俄罗斯总统普京以及乌克兰总统泽连斯基都保持着联系。

这种广泛参与反映了叙利亚的战略地位。在国际纷争不断的当下，支持叙利亚的未来已成为难得的共识——而这很大程度上源于其地理位置。叙利亚地处中东中心，通过其地中海港口连接着亚洲和欧洲。

这反映了这样一种信念：正如叙利亚内战的影响远远超出其国界——引发了移民危机并助长了ISIS的崛起——一个稳定繁荣的叙利亚可以加强地区稳定，鼓励难民返回家园，并遏制极端主义。

在伊朗战争期间，沙拉利用叙利亚的战略位置，将其宣传为现代丝绸之路，一个贸易中心，可以作为霍尔木兹海峡和曼德海峡的陆路桥梁替代方案。

概念验证已经在进行中，数千辆满载石油的油罐车从伊拉克南部穿越叙利亚前往地中海港口巴尼亚斯。

但对于普通叙利亚民众而言，政府雄心勃勃的计划尚未取得切实成果。

利斯特表示，国际社会看到了重建叙利亚未来的真正机遇，但这需要时间。

他说：“现实情况是，这些项目大多是为期十年的战略项目。它们不会降低面包的价格，也不会立即增加叙利亚的燃料供应或降低燃料成本。”

利斯特表示，美国制裁的结束带来了大量新的中小投资项目，这将更快地为人们创造就业机会。

他说：“正是这类项目更有可能播下种子，最终改善叙利亚普通民众面临的挑战。但这不会让这些问题在下周就得到解决，可能还需要一两年时间。”

叙利亚政治经济学家卡拉姆·沙尔经营着一家咨询公司，他估计，承诺的交易中只有5%取得了实质性进展。其中最引人注目的是，由颇具影响力的叙利亚-卡塔尔裔阿尔-哈亚特兄弟领导的UCC控股公司负责的电力基础设施和大马士革机场的翻新工程。

“经济无疑正在复苏。但这对于普通人来说从来都不是问题。他们关心的是自己的生活是否有所改善，”他告诉CNN。

叙利亚抗议者巴萨姆·阿里向路透社抱怨说，政府只关注大额交易，而不是改善生活成本。

“我们不想要环岛。他们每天都在建新的环岛，每个环岛都要花费一百万美元，还有购物中心，以及其他一些乱七八糟的东西。让你的人民好好生活吧，”他向沙拉说道。“你的人民过去支持你，现在支持你，将来也会支持你，但这样做会让局势失控。”

阿西尔警告说，随着经济不满情绪的积累，沙拉政府积累的“革命合法性”可能会消失。

“要想赢得人们的耐心，就必须允许他们参与，让他们感到自己的声音被听到。”

但即便政府能够缩小国际投资与日常经济改善之间的差距，它还面临着另一个很大程度上不受其控制的障碍，沙拉周三在联合国直接指出了这一点。

“全世界都为我们的回归感到高兴。但以色列却对叙利亚发动袭击，”他说。“这与我们目前在全球层面看到的趋势背道而驰。”

他估计，自他上台以来，以色列已在叙利亚境内发动了近500次空袭。以色列还占领了叙利亚南部的大片地区，以色列官员表示，军方计划无限期地驻扎在那里。

以色列声称不信任沙拉阿政权，需要一个安全缓冲区来防止其领土遭受恐怖袭击。饱受战争蹂躏的叙利亚则坚称不希望与邻国发生冲突。

在以色列对叙利亚进行数月空袭的背景下，法里德在外交关系委员会与叙利亚外交部长阿萨德·沙伊巴尼讨论了与邻国实现和平是否可能。

GPS新闻：叙利亚外交部长谈与以色列和平前景

双方自去年8月以来一直在进行直接对话。

阿尔-沙拉周二在纽约大西洋理事会的一个小组讨论会上表示，谈判“已达成 90% 的协议”，直到以色列因“其他原因”退出。

利斯特表示，以色列的行动带来的不稳定是投资者向他咨询叙利亚投资机会时最关心的问题。

他说：“如果以色列在（10 月份的）选举后继续保持目前的立场，那么越来越多的外部投资流入叙利亚的可能性就会越来越小——因为他们正在用这把巨大的铁锤威胁大马士革。”

“这个问题对于经济复苏的重要性不亚于制裁、投资前景以及中小企业等问题。以色列同样至关重要。”